Three races in, three different winners. The 2008 season hasn’t quite taken shape yet – there are still more questions than answers – but over the next few races that’s bound to change.
Barcelona and Istanbul are next on the itinerary and both are Ferrari strongholds. The red team have won five of the last seven races at the Circuit de Catalunya, and the last two Turkish Grands Prix.
If McLaren or BMW can take the fight to them at these venues, then we have a genuinely appealing season’s racing in prospect.
Monaco, on the other hand, was the scene of a dominant one-two for McLaren last year. Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton faced so little opposition they ended up warring between themselves. If the silver cars can’t challenge to win on merit around the streets of Monte-Carlo they can kiss their title hopes goodbye.
BMW are the hardest team to read at the moment. They’ve proven the F1.08 is quick enough for pole positions – but can it carry a race-winning strategy? Can the team keep up the pace of development throughout the season to keep the leaders in sight and even overtake them?
Ron Dennis says they can’t – but logically, to have closed the gap to Ferrari and McLaren over the winter, they must already be doing a pretty effective job…
The situation between the top three teams’ drivers is even more interesting – and hard to read. On the face of it, all three teams are giving their drivers equal chance to win the races, at least for now.
The Kimi Raikkonen-Felipe Massa partnership continues to challenge expectations. Raikkonen is a champion and a very quick driver. But it’s been a few years since we saw a champion who wasn’t consistently ahead of his team mate week-in, week-out: Fernando Alonso did it to Giancarlo Fisichella, Michael Schumacher did it to Rubens Barrichello. But when Massa is ‘on it’, Raikkonen can’t live with him – and vice-versa.
McLaren’s start to the season has been so turbulent it’s difficult to say anything concrete about their drivers. But I think some of the paddock experts who were talking up Lewis Hamilton so much last year might have to make a little back tracking when confronted with how quick Heikki Kovalainen has been (two fastest laps in the last three races).
Hamilton has had three utterly different races: in Melbourne he was untouchable, and all the cards feel in his favour anyway. But in Sepang he was frustrated by misfortune and in Bahrain he was just nowhere.
In last week’s Autosport Mark Hughes suggested that something was playing on his mind (Kovalainen’s speed) and there were suggestions at Sepang on the Saturday that some kind of unforeseen drama in his personal life was at the root of his indifferent performance. Whether this is something or nothing, he’s had three weeks to get his head together and he can’t afford to drop the ball again.
Finally, Robert Kubica and Nick Heidfeld. After a season mostly in Heidfeld’s shadow, Kubica is the coming man once again. He had pole in Bahrain and he should have in Melbourne as well. In Bahrain only a few operational problems (getting the car off the line and not spotting the oil on the track on lap two) stopped him giving the Ferraris a much tougher time.
But has Kubica been flattered by BMW’s unusual approach to race strategy? In the first three races they’ve had one car on lighter fuel at the start, one with a more ‘normal’ fuel level. At Melbourne and Bahrain, Kubica had the lighter car, and started both races from the front of the grid.
It was Heidfeld’s turn at Sepang… and he got baulked by the McLarens. If he’s on the lighter strategy at Barcelona, put a few pounds/dollars/euros/rai stones on him.
18 comments on “The races that will define the season”
21st April 2008, 12:58
rai stones? Hahaha! Some kind of inside joke, Keith? :p
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine)
21st April 2008, 13:11
Nah I just wanted to end on a (sort of) joke…
21st April 2008, 13:52
i think the next 2 races will be won by ferrari, probably easily i think the winner will be decided by how good massa is, if hes in any kind of form like bahrain kimi will be struggling to get near im but if he cant beat him i think hell be 2nd in both so he wont lose out too much to massa.
i dont think maclaren or bww will be able to beat the ferraris so i think itl be a close fight for the last podium place and i think if he wants to keep his championship hopes alive hamilton needs to score as many points as he can at the races ferrari are stronger so i think hel be thrid in both races. he needs a good result after 2 dissapointing performances in sepang and sakhir.
i think bmw will remain close to mclaren and ferrari but i dont think theyl start troubling fpor wins just yet.
just hope for some kind of action in spain as usually its the most boring race of the year…and istanbul isnt normally much better either.
21st April 2008, 15:45
sChUmAcHeRtHeGrEaTeStEvEr- Would we expect you to choose anyone else to win?
Here’s hoping for Nick to be on the top step (and yet still shorter than the others). He deserves it. Remember that he was faster than Kimi back in the Sauber days.
21st April 2008, 15:57
There is a fact that maybe a lot of people unknow. In the last fifteen years, 13 times, the car which won Spanish GP, was the car of the champion. I mean, last year won Felipe, and the championship was won by Kimi, but both of them drove Ferrari.
Some engineers says that if your car is fast in Montmelo, it will be fast in most of the others circuits. I think this weekend we can have a very accurate idea of the real contenders for the championship.
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine)
21st April 2008, 16:12
Indeed Frecon: along with Melbourne and Suzuka, Catalunya has been one of the strongest predictors of who will win the championship. Read more here.
21st April 2008, 16:14
Good point, frecon!
In fact, the pole sitter for all but two of the races in Montmelo have gone on to become champion. The 2 exceptions were Kimi in 2005 and Felipe last year. Otherwise, all have become champion. :)
21st April 2008, 16:38
I case some is interested in the whole stats
Year – Spanish GP (Circuit of Catalunya) – Championship
1991 – Mansell (Williams-Renault) – Senna (McLaren)
1992 – Mansell (Williams-Renault) – Mansell (Will-Ren)
1993 – Prost (Williams-Renault) – Prost (Will-Ren)
1994 – Hill (Will-Renault) – Schumacher (Benetton-Renault)
1995 – Schumacher (Benetton-Reanult) – Schu (Ben-Ren)
1996 – Schumacher (Ferrari) – Hill (Williams-Renault)
1997 – Villeneuve (Will-Ren) – Villeneuve (Will-Ren)
1998 – Hakkinen (McLaren) – Hakkinen (McLaren)
1999 – Hakkinen (McLaren) – Hakkinen (McLaren)
2000 – Hakkinen (McLaren) – Schumacher (Ferrari)
2001 – Schumacher (Ferrari) – Schumacher (Ferrari)
2002 – Schumacher (Ferrari) – Schumacher (Ferrari)
2003 – Schumacher (Ferrari) – Schumacher (Ferrari)
2004 – Schumacher (Ferrari) – Schumacher (Ferrari)
2005 – Raikkonen (McLaren) – Alonso (Renault)
2006 – Alonso (Renault) – Alonso (Renault)
2007 – Massa (Ferrari) – Raikkonen (Ferrari)
21st April 2008, 18:40
I think the most interesting thing will be if Fernando Alonso can squeek out a win at some point this year. He is in contention for best driver of all time… winning a race or two this year in an inferior car and then winning a couple of championships in a row with Ferrari or some one else will put him very rare air.He is already on the list for being the youngest champ (twice!) and he doesn’t seem to have lost any of his edge after finishing one point out with perhaps the most disfunctional and poorly managed major teams in history.Alonso has taken a lot of criticism for his public dissatisfaction and "whining" but anyone who is surprised by a Spaniard acting in an arrogant and egotistical manner are just not paying attention.
21st April 2008, 18:52
For all of you F1 vets out there, would you say that the Spanish GP at it’s current venue is more boring/dull than other races with that same reputation- say, perhaps, Hungary?
21st April 2008, 19:19
To be honest I am never sure why Hungary or Circuit of Catalunya are never threatened but Silverstone and Spa always seem to be.
I hope that the new Spanish Grand Prix (European Grand Prix technically) is an enourmous success. This means that once Alonso leaves the sport (many years from now no doubt) it will be there and not Circuit of Catalunya that becomes the Spanish Grand Prix.
21st April 2008, 19:52
Atleast Hungary has one good turn.
21st April 2008, 20:39
Massa is pretty handy in Spain and Turkey so although I am an avid Kimi fan I think Felipe will do well…
But he’ll be nowhere again at Monaco…
Kimi will do well in all three even if he doesn’t win them all … and unless the car breaks down….
21st April 2008, 22:51
I am keeping my eyes on Nick and Kimi to be very fast this year.Kubica is really showing speed too.I don’t think Hamilton is as much of a threat as everyone thinks.McLaren still has the edge in Monaco,Ferrari @ Monza but ,BMW is going to give fight all season .BMW POWER !!
22nd April 2008, 0:10
Massa desperately needs to win at Barcelona and Istanbul… only after "defending his points" (to make a tennis analogy), I think he’ll be a real title contender for this season…
22nd April 2008, 7:54
Yes on paper it seems exciting trying to gauge this season’s form for top 3 teams & drivers in the coming races. But I think the top 6 drivers are so evenly matched, it’s all down to their cars and fortunes. I’m afraid the red team is ahead with their speed. But what I’m even more afraid of it’s we’re gonna suffer watching 3 boring races. Qualifying will more or less settle the scores and it’ll be hard to overtake in Barcelona, Istanbul (sad… look at last year), and impossible in Monaco. Bring on Montreal and 2009 regs!
23rd April 2008, 2:29
How Spain and Turkey turn out is based on the improvements the teams may have made over the last 3 weeks, maybe even the season outcomes.
I would love to see the Beemers win this year, or at the least relegate McLaren to third place. I still think Kimi and Ferrari will be the leaders after Spain.
24th April 2008, 0:50
I agree Keith with what you said about Nick Heidfeld and BMW Sauber. They may just pose a serious threat in Barcelona if the team choose to run their cars light on Saturday.
We have already seen Robert Kubica claim pole last time by, and he nearly got there in Melbourne. Of the two traditionally dominant teams (Ferrari/McLaren), McLaren would have the most to lose from this happening.
They are behind at the moment, and desperately need a result in Barcelona, or at the very least a podium. Last year, only Ferrari and McLaren claimed podium positions on a regular basis, but this season I believe that has and will change.
That BMW Sauber is no push over, and I think either one of their drivers is going to win and in the very near future.
What Ron Dennis and McLaren need is pole position for either Lewis or Heikki, and a clean, positive race. Its a tall order, that is for sure, but possible.
Ferrari will be confident I am sure, and Felipe Massa proved his worth here last year as you pointed out, with the win and that memorable first corner tussle with Fernando Alonso.
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