2008 Italian Grand Prix predictions

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Wet and cool conditions are expected at Monza - which should suit McLaren

The expectation of wet weather at this weekend’s Italian Grand Prix makes the result harder to predict.

Where we might have expected the usual Ferrari-McLaren battle at the front, the likes of Robert Kubica and Fernando Alonso will be rubbing their hands with glee in anticipation of precipitation.

Find out who did best with the Spa predictions and make your guesses for the top three below…

Wet weather expected

The one thing you can say with confidence about wet weather is that it’s better news for McLaren than it is for Ferrari.

Ferrari had a dismal race at Silverstone in the wet with both their drivers suffering a lot of spins. We have seen plenty of evidence this year that the F2008 struggles to heat up its tyres in cool weather.

Wet weather racing is Felipe Massa’s Achilles Heel and it was clear in the damp early stages of last week’s race that Raikkonen’s natural feel in these conditions is superior.

In the past year and a half Lewis Hamilton has won in the wet at Fuji, Monaco and Silverstone. He was first ‘on the road’ in Spa at the weekend and led much of the Chinese Grand Prix last year before that notorious pit blunder. On that form, he’s got to be favourite if it rains.

But wet weather can also reduce the performance advantage of the leading teams which is good news for the likes of Robert Kubica (BMW) and Fernando Alonso (Renault).

Monza marks one year since Alonso’s last Grand Prix victory, though that might have been different had he pitted a lap earlier at Spa. Alonso’s skill in the wet is tremendous – think back to his virtuoso performance on the first lap at Hungary in 2006. With all kinds of rumours about his future a surprise podium or win would be a timely reminder of those skills.

Kubica was hugely impressive in the wet at Monaco this year. While Massa spun and Hamilton clipped the barrier, Kubica was fast and error-free. With Raikkonen not scoring in the drivers’ championship Kubica has moved up to third and is exhorting BMW to keep the pressure on McLaren and Ferrari. A win at Monza would certainly make everyone take his championship credentials seriously – else BMW risk losing him to Ferrari.

Read more about the weather forecast for the Italian Grand Prix


Wet races are particularly difficult to predict – that’s what makes them so entertaining! Monza is the quickest track on the calendar and one where the teams have virtually no experience of wet weather running. And even wet weather greats made mistakes in the rain (Ayrton Senna, Australia ’89 and Michael Schumacher, Monaco ’96).

All that taken into account, and assuming it rains, here’s my podium prediction:

1. Lewis Hamilton
2. Robert Kubica
3. Kimi Raikkonen

No-one managed to get the top three entirely right at but Sush, Alex-Ctba, Graham228221, Todd and Kavana all managed to name first (Massa) and third (Hamilton) correctly. I only managed to predict Massa’s win correctly…

What do you think will be the top three at Monza? Share your top-three predictions below.

Follow the weather forecast for this weekend on the F1 Fanatic Forum: 2008 Italian Grand Prix weather watch

The comments below have been split across multiple pages. If you are having trouble viewing all the comments click here to see them all.

Author information

Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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80 comments on “2008 Italian Grand Prix predictions”

  1. 1. Massa
    2. Hamilton
    3. Kovi

  2. I’m gonna go on a limb and say:

    1. Alonso
    2. Raikkonen
    3. Kubica

  3. Ah Monza! Can feel my loins girding already. If Spa gives us hills, rills and thrills, Monza can always whisk your breath away with her rolling seas of red fans and ramrod straight er… straights!
    Okay, I’ll leave the wordsmithing to you – you just want a prediction…

  4. If it’s dry…
    1. Massa
    2. Hamilton
    3. Raikkonen

    If it’s wet..
    1. Raikkonen
    2. Alonso
    3. Hamilton

  5. If it’s dry:

    1. Hamilton
    2. Kovalainen
    3. Raikkonen

    If it’s wet:

    1. Hamilton
    2. Raikkonen
    3. Kubica

  6. 1. HAM
    2. MAS
    3. KUB

    Hope it rains!

  7. Man… I confess that is really hard to predict the 2th and 3th places in a wet race…mmmm… ok, I will put my money this time in:

    2º Quick Nick (to help his contract deal!)
    3º Trulli (I like to see the drivers go well on his home race!)

  8. Following Keith’s lead to just predict one set of results rather than hedging my bets with two sets of predictions depending on the weather:

    1. Hamilton
    2. Heidfeld
    3. Alonso

  9. KOV

    And VET for 4th or 5th.

    KOV finally figures out the 6 paddle wheel. Cool weather / rain puts HEI ahead of KUB. (HAM and RAI enter turn 1 abreast and exit on cranes. Massa has a timely swoon.

  10. 1. Raikkonen
    2. Massa
    3. Hamilton (Originally the victor, given a 25 second penalty 2 hours after the race by 3 Italian stewards for not letting Ferrari achieve a 1-2 at Monza)

  11. Dry




  12. Diseased rat – thankyou! Makes it so much easier to follow when I come back to these later.

  13. Kimi

    i dont think HAM will be a factor, either to an incident at the first corner or pressure on himself to make up for the SPA incident will cause him to make a mistake in quali. Massa will flounder in the wet, and the BMW’s will struggle for pace.

  14. OK so here’s my top 3:


    Yes i know, but I’m sure there gonna be a top cars crash (of course if it will be rain)

  15. I sit here now praying that the Tifosi are sorely disappointed this weekend, and well if they are not please let it be Kimi!!!

    1st Hamilton
    2nd Kimi
    3rd Kubica

    Why do I dislike Massa so much???

  16. 1-rai

  17. Here’s a little coincidence for you that I’ve read on pf1 forum.

    So far Massa has missed out on podiums in exactly the same races as he missed out on last year!

    If that’s anything to go by then it’s going to be either




  18. 1 Hamilton
    2 Kubica
    3 Alonso

    Hamilton penalised 25 seconds for driving too wide into parabolica
    Kubica penalised 30 seconds for overtaking under no yellow flag
    Alonso disqualified for looking too glum

    Massa declared the winner.

  19. Internet!!!….haven’t seen you in ages!

    My prediction:

    1. Hamilton
    2. Raikkonen
    3. Heidfeld

  20. I think it will be:

    1. Massa
    2. Hamilton
    3. Kovalainen

  21. 1.Hamilton

  22. My Predictions:

    1: Hamilton
    2: Kubica
    3: Kimi

    With Alonso, Heidfeld, Vettel, and perhaps Sutil in the mix when the wet stuff comes down.

  23. I’ll go for fist across the line:

    And two hours after the race

    But in all seriousness I think it will the top one..

  24. if wet:

    2. R.KUBICA
    3. M.WEBBER

    if dry:

    3. F.MASSA

    K.RAIKKONEN only because i think he’s due

  25. 1. Robert Kubica
    2. Lewis Hamilton
    3. Kimi Raikkonen

  26. :-) i go…in wet and cold, of course…
    Massa and Ham will have a little accident somewhere…..

  27. 1. Button
    2. Raikonnen
    3. Hamilton

    Haha i know but ive put a fiver on button to win at 750-1 :P

  28. After that crazy end to Spa GP i dont play this game anymore :P
    (but i am Raikkonen and Kubica fan, so hope they can take two first places)

  29. What the hey! Might as well go with my heart than try to be logical and get it wrong anyway.

    1. Kovalainen
    2. Button
    3. Heidfeld

  30. “…in anticipation of precipitation”


  31. 1.kimi

  32. Qualifying:
    1. RAI
    2. MAS
    3. HAM
    4. KOV

    1. KOV
    2. HAM +1.1seconds.
    3. HEI +30seconds.

    MAS will crash into RAI and both fail to score points, and Ferrari will be stripped off all their constructor points because of the antics in Valencia.

  33. 1-lewis

  34. Well I’m on vacation and will have to watch this after it’s run, so how about a full grid prediciton this time.
    I reckon they’ll be a few DNFs on the 1st lap.

    1. KOV
    2. MAS
    3. HEI
    4. HAM
    5. RAI
    6. VET
    7. ALO
    8. WEB
    9. GLO
    10. COU
    11. BUT
    12. ROS
    13. TRU
    14. NAK
    15. PIQ
    16. BAR
    17. FIS
    18. SUT
    19. KUB
    20. VET

  35. I’m reusing my prediction from last week, I feel I barely used it.

    1. Hamilton
    2. Heidfeld
    3. Kovalainen

  36. I predict that it’ll be wednesday before we know the ‘official’ outcome of the race ;)

    For the ‘actual’ race I predict

    1. Hamilton
    2. Kubica
    3. Heidfeld

    Pole : Hamilton

  37. I agree with Deseased Rat Ham/Hei/Nando’s in the wet.
    In the Dry, ferrari power. Mas/Rai/Vet

  38. 01. RAI
    02. MAS
    03. KOV

  39. 1)hamilton

  40. I expect a dry race.
    1. HAM (He usually starts with light fuel load)
    2. MAS
    3. RAI

    1. RAI
    2. HAM
    3. MAS
    (I have a feeling Kimi will pass Mas at Turn 1 and pass Ham during Pitstop)

  41. If it’s wet,

    1: Alonso
    2: Kubica
    3: Sutil

    If it’s dry,

    1: Raikkonen
    2: Massa
    3: Kubica

  42. Wet or dry:

    1. Lewis
    2. Kubica
    3. Kovalainnen

    But you never know 2 hours after that…

  43. 1.Räikkönen

  44. I doubt Heidfeld will have as good a race as everyone predicts. If he can’t get tyre temperatures for quali, he’s going to languish in the midfield, and could get into incidents if it’s wet. Too much of a lottery in the wet, even for the good drivers.

    Rain or shine:
    1. Lewis
    2. Raikkonen
    3. Massa

    The Renaults may not quite be up there as in Spa, but the engine power of the Torro Rossos will definitely be a factor.

  45. Oh, wait. Maybe Raikkonen will let Massa by.

  46. Hamilton

    Ferraris out due to engine problem and whether

  47. Dry:

    1) Rai
    2) Ham
    3) Mas


    1) Ham
    2) Kov
    3) Kub

  48. Kimi
    Seb V
    Niko R
    (I still have some mixed feelings on Rosberg , sometimes I believe the car is poor and he is good and tries hard , othertimes I feel he tries only as hard as is necessary to beat his team-mate?)

  49. 1. HAM
    2. RAI
    3. KOV

  50. 1. Kimi
    2. Lewis
    3. Felipe

  51. IF WET:
    1. Hamilton
    2. Massa
    3. Heidfeld

    IF DRY:
    1. Massa
    2. Hamilton
    3. Raikkonen

  52. following on my good prediction form, i’m going to predict a wet race with the following podium:

    1) Hamilton
    2) Raikkonen
    3) Alonso

    Fernando has gotta get a podium this season, and I’ve got a feeling that this might be his race if it is wet.

    I’m also guessing that Vettel, Kubica and Heidfeld will finish in 4th, 5th and 6th. Heikki and Massa will take each other out early on ;)

  53. 1 Hamilton
    2 Raikkonen
    3 Massa

    But I have an extrange feeling: Kimi/Ham

    GUNFIGHT AT THE OK CORRAL Spaghetti western remake!

  54. Dry or wet


    Forza Ferrari!!!!

  55. KUB

  56. Keith –

    If Hamilton hadn’t been penalised at Spa, would anyone have got the top 3 correct?

  57. Race Predict:

    Ferrari (one of them)
    Ferrari (the other one)



  58. Dry:
    1. Raikkonen
    2. Massa
    3. Kubica

    1. Raikkonen
    2. Kubica
    3. Massa

  59. 1:Ham

  60. Just heard on 5Fm ( our radio station in South Africa ) that Kimi has been signed until 2010,extending his current contract by 1 year. So no chance for Alonso in 2010 at Ferrari. Mmmm.

  61. Jolene – Perhaps a good one for the forum?

  62. If it rains:


  63. Dry Race (just in case)
    1. Massa
    2. Raikkonen
    3. Hamilton

    Wet Race
    1. Alonso
    2. Barrichello
    3. Vettel

    Am I right in saying Keith, that I haven’t got a race prediction correct yet on this website?

  64. 1. Kubica
    2. Heidfeld
    3. Hamilton

  65. 1. Kimi
    2. Lewis
    3. Massa

    And I am sure about one thing that Massa will not beat Kimi this year, at least not in the race.

  66. Dry:


  67. Firstly:
    Hamilton DNF tries to take Heikki on the chicane only to be found out by another Finn and stuck in the kitty litter! Then gets a “walk thru” penalty past the Tifosi on his way to the pits where Daddy Hamilton gives him a dressing down and threatens to disown him if he doesn’t win the WDC this year!

    All jokes aside though, I read the autosport article on Hamilton being fired up after the penalty. While many bloggers on this F1 Fanatic came to realise that he makes comments that could only be reserved for the most pompous of Englishmen I also noticed that his comments would suggest that he isn’t banking on a success at the appeal.

    On formula1.com it has been stated that the appeal may not be admissable as the penalty was dealt in the substition for a drive thru for which appeals are not admissable. Maybe Lewis has accepted and realises he made a mistake and deserved the penalty. As we all have read, the stewards had no choice in the penalty that was given, as it turns out they had followed the rules after all.

    I also wanted to add that when I watched the race and saw the incident I instantly and I mean instantly, thought ” That’s not right!” and then when Hamilton relinquished the position the first thing I thought was “Gee that took a while” as in Hamilton should have “almost” stopped and then once Raikkonen had passed him resumed. I think when the stewards say “gained an advantage” they were talking about Hamilton not having lost out on making the mistake of running off but rather he used the cutting of the chicane to facilitate the move at La Source.

  68. We’ve already got loads of discussions on the Hamilton penalty elsewhere:

    Will Hamilton’s petition beat Alonso’s?

    Can we keep the debate here on predictions for the Italian Grand Prix please?

  69. 1. Hamilton
    2. Kubica
    3. Bourdais


  70. 1. Raikkonen
    2. Trulli
    3. Massa

    Heart ruling over head.

  71. Wet:


  72. 1. Kubica
    2. Raikkonen
    3. Hamilton
    4. Massa
    5. Kovalainen
    6. Heidfeld
    7. Vettel
    8. Alonso

  73. Hamilton

    Massa will crash out.

  74. ScuderiaToroFerrari4Eva
    12th September 2008, 21:36

    My predictions are Qualifying 1.Raikkonen 2.Vettel 3.Bourdais for the race well i have a feeling its gonna be dry for like first 5laps it will start pouring for remainder of race so my top 3 in wet are 1.Raikkonen Joint with Vettel on finish line 3.Bourdais in the dry 1.Raikkonen 2.Massa and 3rd.Kubica Hamilton is gonna make a mistake and retire or his gonna have his race compromised by his pitcrew or a blackhole lol :D

  75. hammy

  76. I think it will be:

    1. HAM
    2. KUB
    3. MAS

  77. if dry:
    Ferraris out of the race

    if wet:
    Again Ferraris out

  78. alonso

Comments are closed.