Felipe Massa and Lewis Hamilton may have to contend with wet weather in addition to all the other pressures of an F1 season finale.
Since we first took a look at the weather for the Brazilian Grand Prix the forecasts have changed quite a bit more than usual. In recent days several weather forecasts have increased their predictions for wet weather tomorrow.
The Brazilian Meteorological Office warns of “possible thunderstorms” tomorrow. Local forecaster ClimaTempo agrees with the prediction of rain.
According to Accuweather Sao Paulo will see thunderstorms from 3-4pm – the race is due to start at 3pm local time.
This diagram on Autosport shows the expected rainfall in the area in the hours around the Grand Prix. It suggests up to 16mm of rain within a six-hour time window.
How could rain affect the race? Ferrari has generally been slower than McLaren in wet conditions. In both heavy wet conditions and in conditions where rain is falling on a dry track, we have seen McLaren perform better at Monte-Carlo, Silverstone, Spa-Francorchamps and Monza this year.
However on a track moving from damp to dry the Ferrari has been quicker. At least, that has been the case when the Ferrari in question is in Raikkonen’s hands – an oft-cited criticism of Massa is that wet weather racing is not one of his strengths.
But wet weather wouldn’t necessarily be bad news for him. Unpredictable conditions increase the likelihood of problems for Lewis Hamilton – which Massa needs if he is going to win the championship tomorrow. And whatever happens, Massa will have the benefit of starting at the front with a clear track – especially if the race begins behind the safety car.
The 2003 and 1996 Brazilian Grands Prix started and finished in heavy wet weather – the 2003 event had to be stopped early after several crashes. The 2004 and 1991 races saw light showers during otherwise dry encounters. Rain fell in the late stages of the 2001 race, and the 1993 event was interrupted by a massive downpour.
Please post any other links or observations on the weather for tomorrow’s critical race below.
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Andrew
1st November 2008, 21:12
It would be amazing to end the title on a massive race, in difficult circumstances, with lots of twists and turns, and some real racing.
I’m just not sure I can take it.
Adrian
1st November 2008, 21:17
What year was it that there was a very expensive car park in one of the first corners?
Internet
1st November 2008, 21:55
Rain would be very welcome. It would be great to see a WDC being won by a wet driving masterclass like Silverstone with Massa going around in circles just like Silverstone.
chill
1st November 2008, 22:15
it is possible that hamilton is starting with loads of fuel and planning 1 stop game. if it starts raining during race he may have to pit in for an extra rubber. tho… in case of rain one must not always use both soft and hard compound?
David Watkins
1st November 2008, 22:18
Adrian
That was the 2007 European Grand Prix at the Nurburgring.
Terry Fabulous
1st November 2008, 22:24
2003 Adrian! Fisi’s first win, Jordan’s last.
And the Last GP that I missed, (stupid hard to program VCR).
Missouri Mike
1st November 2008, 22:25
Chill: Once the rain tires come out, the requirement to use multiple compounds is negated. You can run the entire race on full wets or on intermediate wets.
Here in the USA, the Speed TV commentators mentioned that Hamilton’s driving style and trap speeds on the straights seemed to indicate that he was running very little wing, and that if it rained tomorrow the cars running less wing would suffer greatly.
Personally I’m rooting for Lewis and so I’m hoping his Q3 times were the result of running a bit heavier on fuel. But there’s no way to know until the pit window tomorrow, I can’t wait!!!
amy
1st November 2008, 23:01
I still think Massa could get the job done even if it rains, he has the advantage of starting in front where there is better visibility and he knows that he basically has to win it. Hamilton will try and be as cautious as possible presumably but as he is stuck in the pack where there is less visibility and drivers looking for the oppertunity for a big points haul to impress bosses at the last race looking to take his position.
Andrew
1st November 2008, 23:06
Rain is definitely bad for Hamilton. What Hamilton needs it predictable and incident free racing because he is faster than everyone behind him, and that is all he needs.
Rain would be great if it ends the championship with a master drive that gives the winner a deserving championship, but if either of them are taken out of the points because mere chance that would be disappointing.
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine)
1st November 2008, 23:11
Andrew – And here’s what Hamilton had to say about the prospect of rain:
motion
1st November 2008, 23:12
Kovy had even less wing than Hamilton by the speed traps.
Tyre scrubbing McLarens with little wing? Do they hope for rain with little wing or for dry with the tyres giving out on the long runs? Strategy Ron?
Trulli looks really hooked up and with Renault he could be electric off the line even though Kimi says P2 isn’t a great slot here.
Barichello could come through from the back and be a sensation if it rains …. and with the chance it is his last race at home or fighting for a seat …. and to help a Brazilian take the World Championship in a Ferrari. Watch your mirrors Louis!
Loki
1st November 2008, 23:20
Adrian, I think that was the left hand curve after the Senna S in 2003 – cars were just aquaplaning off, some of them parking quite neatly next to each other (screw being a steward at that time, trying to move the cars out the way).
Rain will make it exciting but, being one of those that critisize Massa’s wet abilities, I will be watching through the gap of my fingers as I hold my hands over my face in preparation.
There’s the aspect that even if something does happen to Hamilton in the rain, say an accident or an off due to poor visibility, then Massa still has to finish the race in 1st/2nd place.
I remember last year I couldn’t watch the last few laps in fear of a blow up, a missed brake point – anything that was going to happen to Kimi’s car. Moreover, I was also depending on all the other cars in between not taking each other out – Kubica and Rosberg nearly took each other out at the Senna S near the end and my heart skipped a few beats!
So if there’s rain tomorrow, I think I’ll be even more anxious should Hamilton be outside the top 6 at any point and Massa is leading…
Matt
1st November 2008, 23:38
Have any other Hamilton fan been sick to their stomach for the last two weeks?
It seems like all they talk about anytime his name is mentioned is that this is the second race for his engine, he’s due for a mechanical failure, and Kovalainen’s engine problems last week. The anticipation for this GP is killing me. I just want it to be over, regardless of the result. I can’t handle it anymore!
Rabi
2nd November 2008, 0:14
I’m with you motion, here’s hoping for heavy rain and an inspired Rubens!
Journeyer
2nd November 2008, 0:52
Thanks heavens I’m a Massa fan. For Massa, nothing to lose, everything to gain. :)
Greenmoon55
2nd November 2008, 0:57
Massa is quicker in Monte-Carlo this year though he didn’t win there. Ferrari is slower in other circuits in rain.
yorricksfriend
2nd November 2008, 2:59
@ motion, Trulli drives for Toyota not Renault
DMW
2nd November 2008, 5:20
Note, wing is not the only aspect of set up. McLaren’s S2 disadvantage is likely down to a “more wet,” i.e., soft-in-roll, set-up. A surfeit of fuel, and a mechanical grip compromise, with a car equal to the Ferrari on same fuel, means Ron has done his sums. But Ron is prone to too-cute race decisions (Hockenheim gave me a permanent ulcer)
Massa is going for the win. So he took a strategy with a clear path to victory against equal competition—light fuel, run away, hope the chasers trip in their pursuit. But this strategy does not account for rain, SC periods, or getting stuck behind the ultimate Trulli Train.
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine)
2nd November 2008, 12:43
With four and a quarter hours to the race start it is dry at the circuit but rain clouds are moving in as expected.
D Winn
2nd November 2008, 13:43
Another link showing 90-100% rain
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/Hourly.aspx?chart=Precipitation&location=BRXX0232&day=
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine)
2nd November 2008, 13:46
Interlagos circuit location
Predicted rainfall movement (click ‘Animacao’ to see rain movement)
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine)
2nd November 2008, 14:04
According to Autosport very light rain is falling on the circuit.
Alex'P
2nd November 2008, 14:51
Looking like rain is a sure thing… I called in sick to stay up and watch this one. It’s looking like a thriller!
Eddie Irvine
2nd November 2008, 15:16
I found this in a site http://www.msfree.gr/showbrazil.php
it’s live from brazil
Can anyone understand from this if it’s raining?
Filipe
2nd November 2008, 15:31
Eddie it´s raining at Interlagos now very lightly, but the clouds suggests that it’s probably gonna increase.
Oliver
2nd November 2008, 15:52
Rain isn’t good news for anyone, it only further increases the tension.
Andrew
2nd November 2008, 15:54
Oliver, I disagree.
Rain from the start is interesting as it ups the skill level required to win and removes some of the differences between cars.
Random rain showers and or safety cars are what is bad because it means the race could be decided by chance.
Filipe
2nd November 2008, 15:54
The rain seems to have stoped right now.