The F1 Fanatic 2009 predictor (Poll)

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Will Honda's F1 team be back on the grid in 2009?

How well can we predict what’s going to happen in F1 this year?

In this post we’ll put ten predictions for the 2009 season to the vote and see which ones come true…

Which of the following do you think will happen in 2009? Vote for each one you’ll think will happen and explain your choices below.

Which of these predictions will come true in 2009?

  • Nelson Piquet Jnr loses his F1 seat (12%)
  • Fernando Alonso confirms he is moving to Ferrari (15%)
  • The team formerly known as Honda makes it to Melbourne (15%)
  • Felipe Massa will win the Turkish Grand Prix (12%)
  • The British Grand Prix is dropped from the 2010 calendar (5%)
  • Lewis Hamilton gets at least three penalties (11%)
  • Toyota quits Formula 1 (3%)
  • McLaren beats Ferrari in the constructors' championship (7%)
  • Max Mosley steps down as FIA president (6%)
  • Kimi Raikkonen beats Felipe Massa in the world championship (14%)

Total Voters: 2,468

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Read more: If we were in charge: 2008 in polls

Author information

Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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38 comments on “The F1 Fanatic 2009 predictor (Poll)”

  1. It’s got to be Alonso confirming his move to Ferrari and one of my many reasons is largely due to the credit crunch. He will bring huge sponsors and the teams want and need the money… yes even Ferrari.

    (I like many of the other predictions but I’ll just enjoy reading what others have to say)

  2. Or rather, Ferrari have little choice but confirm Alonso is joining them after he is seen leaving Marinello with Massa – he denies it right up to his first Practice run…..
    Also Toyota run out of money after KERS breaks their budgets and forces them out of NASCAR too…

  3. Just three for me:

    Kimi beats Massa
    ‘Honda’ make it to Melbourne
    Fernando’s Ferrari move gets confirmed.

  4. Just three for me as well.

    Kimi beats Massa
    Brawn and co make it to Aus
    Max steps down

  5. I hope Kimi bounces back he shouldn’t really be playing 2nd fiddle to Felipe.

  6. 3 for me as well!!
    Kimi beats Massa
    Previously known Honda makes it to Aus (High Hopes!!)
    Ham gets 3 penalties(of course for all good reasons!)

  7. Alonso to Ferrari,
    Max’s term ends,
    Kimi beats Denise,
    Honda makes it to Melbourne aaaaand
    Lewis gets at least three penalties.

  8. Just two for me:

    Honda makes it to Melbourne (with all these rumours that Ross Brawn is starting to talk to different people, I’m actually getting the impression he just might pull something off)

    Lewis Hamilton gets at least three penalties (I think with his driving style, he’ll still find them difficult to avoid, and three just isn’t that much)

    A couple of the others:

    Max will stay, using the excuse that continuity and experience will guide F1 through the current crisis (yeah right!)

    Alonso and Renault will actually do quite well, so Fernando will leave it hanging until 2010 to confirm (if at all)

    Massa won’t win in Turkey (law of averages, seriously!)

    Kimi won’t beat Massa (pure guess, but it’ll be closer and give Ferrari a headache again)

    Mclaren won’t beat Ferrari, as while both Ferrari drivers will be battling for the title while Heikki (although improving a lot on last season) will be playing second fiddle to Lewis throughout.

    The British GP won’t be dropped, or is that just wishful thinking?

    Toyota won’t quit, although it will take some work from Max and Bernie to keep them through the season.

    And stop picking on poor Nelsinho! But I do hope we see a few drivers being dropped for poor performance at some point, the grid needs more freshers.

  9. You should read James Surowiecki’s book The Wisdom of Crowds, Keith, if you haven’t already – a tribute to the power of collective expertise, working on the same principle as prediction markets. There might be some interesting experiments to be done with your readership.

    Having said that, the markets were backing Kimi for a large amount of 2008 – suggesting his reputation was so strong that we collectively simply didn’t believe he wouldn’t bounce back, until the point when he mathematically couldn’t.

    1. I might give that a look – I’m tackling Ulysees at the moment which is hard work!

  10. Massa will win the Turkish Grand Prix…

    Hamilton will get at least three (deserved) penalties…

  11. Massa the best ……..

  12. Three for me too.

    Kimi beating Felipe – Hoping Kimi is more comfortable with this seasons car. He’s Finnish so any reduction in grip is going to be good for him.

    Lewis gets 3 penalties – The way he drives means getting penalties is a risk in today’s world, the FIA don’t like people racing.

    Honda is bought in time for Australia – I just hope so and there’s nothing like a bit of wishful thinking to keep you going in the winter.


    Massa the best ……..

    …Brazilian in a Ferrari ?

  13. I picked four:

    – Honda makes it to Melbourne
    – Alonso confirms he is moving to Ferrari
    – Massa wins in Turkey
    – Hamilton gets at least three penalties

    Out of the others, to be sadly honest, I think the least likley is Max stepping down as FIA president- someone is going to need to pry the office from his hands if he’s ever going to lave of his own accord. The others could all happen, but with varying degrees of probability.

  14. I’ve choose 4 too:
    1 – Honda makes it to Melbourne
    2 – Alonso confirms he is moving to Ferrari
    3 – Massa wins in Turkey
    4 – Nelson Piquet Jnr loses his F1 seat
    Not necessaryly in this order.
    I’ didn’t check the box for Ham and his penalties… Poor guy, may be he has learn something during the last 2 seasons. Or not? :-)

  15. Kimi will beat Massa, Massa had his chance but failed. Garbage driver who will be without a drive when Alonso confirms his Ferrari contract.

  16. Alianora La Canta
    6th January 2009, 22:43

    I’m taking:

    ex-Honda get to Melbourne (by the skin of its teeth)
    Massa to win the Turkish GP (and at least Brazil and China as well)
    Hamilton to get at least three penalties (more like four or five)
    McLaren beats Ferrari in the constructor’s championship (by a small but noticeable margin)
    Toyota quits F1 (but Williams announces that it doesn’t care because it will have Cosworths instead)

    I have no idea about whether Raikkonen or Massa will have the upper hand. But I think the British GP will happen, Piquet Jr will get a seat either at Renault or (ex-)Toro Rosso in 2010, Alonso will wait until late in 2010 before making his mind up on Ferrari and Max Mosley will win the 2009 election.

  17. I voted for:

    The team formerly known as Honda makes it to Melbourne
    Felipe Massa will win the Turkish Grand Prix – he’s a form tracks kind of guy, and Ferrari will be competitive again this year
    Nelson Piquet Jnr loses his F1 seat – I don’t expect him to do enough in 2009 to justify a place in F1
    Lewis Hamilton gets at least three penalties – Which would be an improvement on 2008’s five

    I don’t think Mosley will step down. He’ll see his senate vote win during Spankgate as a referendum on his presidency.

  18. 4 for me:
    1. Massa wins in Turkey – duh?
    2. Piquet loses his seat – about time
    3. Lewis gets 3 penalties – with MaFIA and FIArrari in bed, duh?
    4. McLaren beats Ferrari – I can dream can’t I?

  19. I think ex-Honda will probably make Melbourne. Apart from any other reason because Bernie can’t afford to see any other team leve as he is close to the minimum number of cars he has to supply to each race.

    I don’t see Alonso going to Ferrari being announced next year as Kimi has a contract signed for 2010 already.

    I doubt Massa will get a car that suits him so much more than his team mate two years in a row with so many rule changes.

    Turkey is an understeer track so should belong to Massa, Alonso or Kubica. My bet is Massa will have the best package of the three.

    Alonso is more confident and comfortable than a year ago so for me Piquet is in trouble this season.

    He is the biggest threat to Ferrari and as Bernie has recently highlighted F1 is massively biased towards Ferrari so lots of penalties for Lewis again.

    Ferrari are struggling with KERS and have shuffles some of their senior people again so McLaren should beat them in the constructors championship.

    Max said during the vote of confidence that if the vote went his way he definitely wouldn’t stand again. Unfortunately the man is a liar so we will be stuck with him for another few years.

    The 2010 British GP will be at Silverstone. Just as when Brands Hatch won the contract the race never left Silverstone. Bernie spotted that the Donington people were mugs and only signed a deal to get a payment for them defaulting while at the same time turning the screws on Silverstone.

    I think Renault will quit before Toyota. I expect Toyota and Renault to see out the 2009 season.

  20. U guys are dreamers!

    1) “Honda” sinks into the setting sun (not the “rising” sun) and is never heard from again.

    2) Piquet JR becomes a pedestrian and is disinherited by Sr.

    3) Massa crashes out Hamilton in Turkey but crosses the line upside-down and backwards in first place and is declared the winner. Hamilton is penalized for driving a McLaren.

  21. I voted four.
    1. Nando to Ferrari (sadly)
    2. Lewis gets 3 penalties (sadly)
    3. No British GP in 2010 (sadly)
    4. Flippy wins Turkey (sadly)

    My. what a dire lot of predictions ! I’d love to have voted for S&Max to step down, but that won’t happen (sadly). You’d never think I am looking forward to the 2009 season, would you!

  22. theRoswellite
    7th January 2009, 5:50

    …Kimi won’t prevail over Master Massa, as the former is on the other side of his peak and Felipe is at his apogee. (If you run the ’08 season over 10 times, so as to norm out any bad luck…Massa wins 7/10)

    …Max steps down(this is a joke, right?)

    …Big-Mac over The-F-Team…only if KERS really works.

    …Toyota isn’t going to follow Honda…anywhere.

    …if LH gets less than 3 penalties next year, he isn’t really trying.

    …if the British GP goes, Bernie will have carved himself out a special place in F1 history, not to mention a certain other location.

    …gee, why not, after a certain point it just isn’t about probability anymore. (Massa in Turkey)

    …Wanted: one corporation with more faith in the future, than fear of the present. (The common prayer…Honda survives)

    …by 2010 Ferrari will be focused on the future, Vettel, not the past, Alonso.

    …Nelsinho can’t lose his seat in 2009, that, in a manner of speaking, has already taken place.

  23. I have only clear that Max Mosley WILL NOT resign.

    For the rest of the points, I have no idea, and this is one of the reasons why I visit this blog!

    If something is quite clear for me is F1 is quite a lot unpredictable; as Kimi and Felipe btw, not to say Alonso/Renault…

    Happy new year to everybody!

  24. 1) Honda make it to Melbourne – wishful thinking because I’ll be there and I want to see 20 cars
    2) McLaren beat Ferarri – wishful thinking because I really really want Kovalainen to surprise everyone
    3) Kimi beats Massa – his performances in ’03, ’05 and ’07 compared to ’04 ’06 and ’08 lead me to believe he hibernates every second year
    4) Piquet to lose his seat – I’m shocked he’s kept it this long…

  25. how about we just hope for the 2 things that would make the sport recapture the old senna days and finally get rid of the cancer that has dragged the sport so far down, Bernie and max have got to go, they have basically set up a system where the driver and team of there choice has the biggest advantage it’s no shock who cough..(ferrari) the ******** thing about that is all the other teams like Mclaren are not only fighting against the juggernaut of Ferrari but also both the evil juggernauts of max and Bernie that impose penalties when they feel either massa or kimi are having a bad race

    basically i can sum it up by saying the REAL evil that max and Bernie have done to the sport is the REMOVAL of some of the great US circuits not to mention that we have to watch in horror as more and more of the great circuits that we love are disappearing one by one from the calender THAT’S THE TRULY SAD PART!!

  26. What’s with a…Massa wins the Championship…. stop hating already!!!!!

  27. Kimi won’t be beating Massa. Media predicted Kimi to steamroll Massa when Traction Control was banned; look what happened. Again; media are predicting that slicks will favor Kimi; I am betting on them being wrong again.

    Fernando won’t be moving to Ferrari.
    This rumor is probably going to be the biggest bubble after “Honda’s 2009 season of redemption” went kaput. In 2009; Renault will be back to the tail-end of the field, Fernando won’t be able to do any wonders.
    Instead; I feel Fernando will be moving to BMW; who will definitely change 1 driver after 3 years of same pairing.

    Felipe will win in Turkey
    . The only one who comes close to Felipe there is Lewis. And he can’t go for a 3-stopper once; tyre warmers are banned.

    1. I happen to agree with every one of your statements.

  28. I think following the latest from Max, a prediction for 2010 would see Toyota, Ferrari, Mercedes, BMW and Renault leaving formula1

  29. “But as already stated, we will be ready to recognise an independent series should some teams prefer to go their own way.” – Keith, is Max Mosley allowing for a break away group of manufacturers in 2010 by this statement in his letter?

  30. Max quits, Bernie stays on with no end in sight.

    2009 WDC Drivers standings:

    1) Fernando wins the WDC as Renault improves just enough to give him the points needed. No one can agree if its the car or the driver…. Fred stays at Renault and wins in 2010 before going to Ferrari in 2011.

    2) Kimi looses by a point because Ferrari has Kers problems… winning a few races by a record setting margins and loosing or Kablamo’ing more races than not.

    3) Hamilton is in third after blowing a 20 point lead with 3 races to go. (for the 3rd year in a row)

    4) Kovi finishes 4th… but doesnt win a race.

    5) Rosburg does really well… podiums often

    6) – Massa does well initially, but fades mid season and becomes kimi’s faithful team mate, and is in 5th by the end of the season.

    7) – Kubica wins 3 races, but BMW cant consistently place in the top 5. Again.

    8) -Vettle has some amazing drives but only manages to win 2 races in a woefully mediocre Red bull. He has a very nasty Kers problem in one race that scares us all…

    9) – Trully wins his first race for Toyota in the race after he has announced his retirement. Button takes his place next year.

    10) – Webber does ok but no podiums to finish

    11)- SeaBass gets a few podiums but no wins.

    12) – Kaz scores some good points.. no podiums tho

    13) – Quick Nick has a dismal season with only a couple of good races and retires.

    14) – Glock has two good races and not much else

    15 – Buimi has a tough time at Toro Rosa

    16 – PK jr is replaced by Button who does well but doesnt get enough points to finish higher

    17 and 18 – Fisichella[ starts 3 races before Force india signs Barrichello to a 3 year deal. Fisi very publicly begs Force india to let him continue racing and he vows to find another ride… Rubens and Sutil finish last but score some points.

  31. I voted for 2

    Massa wins Turkey
    Lewis gets at least three penalties

  32. ‘Hamilton gets three penalties’?

    Good god Keith, I thought you might stop whinging after the man won the bloody title! :)

    1. Eh? How on earth is that whingeing? He got, what, five penalties last year, it’s a fact.

  33. Oh, and I’m going to laugh so hard when Felipe outclasses Kimi once again. This website’s Lucky-Lewis-puppy-fanclub will have to reassess their biases and try to learn a thing or two about F1.

  34. i think kimi will win world championship. lewis has a good chance because he won it last year. I dont think fernado will get a Ferrari seat he is past his best cos kimi has something to prove

    dont rule out heidfeld or hamilton

  35. I belive:

    1/ Kimi will retire cos hes rubbish
    2/ Hamilton will win by a country mile
    3/ Heidfeld will hav a good season as hes a good driver but a rubbish qualifyer

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