Expect a Brawn resurgence at Bahrain

Bahrain Grand Prix preview

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Four races in five weeks – the 2009 F1 season is off to a hectic start.

Bahrain is the last of the opening series of ‘flyaway’ races and, after two rain-affected Grands Prix, we’re likely to see a much more normal race at the desert circuit.

Can Red Bull repeat their form from Shanghai in the dry? And can Ferrari finally get their season started?

Brawn vs Red Bull

Sebastian Vettel might have been 40 seconds ahead of Jenson Button at the end of the Chinese Grand Prix, but in dry conditions this weekend Brawn will surely be the team to beat once again.

Last Saturday they were only out-qualified by three cars running with substantially less fuel. The BGP001s hadn’t seen a drop of rain until the Sepang deluge, so it’s not a surprise they lacked the edge in wet weather that they have in the dry.

However the race also pointed to another potential weakness in the team’s armour – or, at least, Button’s – tyre temperature. Button complained about the difficulty of getting heat into his tyres at Shanghai and also struggled with it at Melbourne.

Bahrain, of course, is one venue where you can pretty much rely on it being hot and dry – more good news for Brawn there.

With the diffuser rules now ‘clarified’ Brawn have to make hay while the sun shines – some teams have already brought revised rear undertrays (McLaren, Renault) and others are readying them for the Spanish Grand Prix (Ferrari).

Red Bull achieved their maiden one-two without superstar designer Adrian Newey present in Shanghai. He had been left in Milton Keynes, beavering away on a revised rear end design to. How much quicker will the RB5 be once he’s done?

Teams abandon KERS

One of the surprises of China was how few drivers use KERS: Renault and Ferrari ditched it, and Robert Kubica discarded the device after running it in testing. Only Lewis Hamilton, Heikki Kovalainen and Nick Heidfeld used it during the race.

The trade-off for the six-second 80bhp boost it provides is less than optimal weight distribution, which makes tyre management especially difficult. Therefore Bridgestone’s decision to bring a greater variation in tyre performance this year may be inadvertently making teams less keen to use KERS.

The other downside to KERS is greater instability under braking – and Bahrain is one of the most punishing tracks for the brakes. How many teams will accept these performance penalties in order to gain those useful extra power boosts down Bahrain’s many straights?


The teams will be using the super-soft tyre again this weekend, as at Shanghai where several drivers had grave concerns over its performance throughout a stint.

We may see a repeat of drivers running ultra-light first stints in a bid to get the super-soft tyre out of the way as the Red Bulls and Fernando Alonso planned to on Sunday, before the rain intervened.

Drivers to keep an eye on

Felipe Massa – Drove an excellent race in China until his car let him down. Wants KERS back for Bahrain, a track where the team tested during the winter. Due a result.

Fernando Alonso – Second on the grid in China was largely fuel-assisted but was also aided by Renault’s diffuser tweaks. We’ll find out how quick they really are this weekend.

Nico Rosberg – Strong in practice but not delivering in the races. Needs to re-capture the form of his swashbuckling debut here in 2006.

Timo Glock – Has picked up ten points so far despite starting from the pits in the first race and breaking his front wing in the past two.

More on the Bahrain Grand Prix

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Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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65 comments on “Expect a Brawn resurgence at Bahrain”

  1. As the super softs were not used in Shanghai, do we know if the heat will make their longevity worse or will it be down to the abrasive nature of the track, and the ability of the car to maximise it’s tyres.

  2. i feel kimi will be strong too…..he was good in the tests as he posted the fastest time of the tests of this track

  3. RBR is going to smash the competition :)

    1. Mussolini's Pet Cat
      21st April 2009, 8:45

      if it rains….

  4. Good to see competition between two designers (RBR and Brawn GP) instead of big budget teams like Ferrari and Mclaren. I think Ferrari time is over with departure of Shumi,Brawn,Toed.

    RBR has two superb drivers and they managed to get 1,2 but I think Brawn will be strong again in dry.
    Kimi is strong in dry so I will also count him in “keep eye on”

    1. I agree with the keep an eye on Kimi part there Rahzam! :)

    2. I’d say, add Hamilton to that list too. He’s been good in every race so far and he was faster in Q2 than Alonso.

      I doubt Alonso, Raikkonen and Hamilton can match the Brawns or the Red Bulls, but it would be nice if these 3 WDCs could duke it out amongst each other for 5th or 4th.

      BTW Odd that people mention Alonso’s great improvement in the Renault while Hamilton made an even bigger improvement in the update McLaren. Just goes to show that Alonso’s PR stunt in Q3 really did work as intended.

    3. Ross Brawn versus Adrian Newey isn’t exactly a new competition. Brawn and Newey cars have won something like thirteen world titles since 1992.

    4. @Patrickl

      Your attention to detail leaves me baffled mate. If Sir Jackie is warning Brawn against hiring Hamilton instead of Rubens, i think i’d listen to it. He spoke of hamilton’s inexperience in that department. While i’ll agree that Hamilton can drive a fast car fast. I have doubts whether he can make a fast car go faster. Alonso also won 2 races last year with car in such horrid shape as it was. McLaren aren’t doing as bad as renault were doing with their car last year. McLaren’s rock bottom in this decade was in the year ’04.

    5. Sri,

      Facts are facts:
      – Hamilton has performed a lot better with his underperforming McLaren than Alonso has in his slightly better Renault
      – McLaren has improved their car more than Renault (obviously since Hamilton was now faster than Alonso in Q2 where before he was slower)

  5. Mussolini's Pet Cat
    21st April 2009, 8:44

    With the diffuser nonsense behind us, and the other teams now starting to bring their versions along, i think this season is really going to hot up.

  6. Toyota should be strong as they tested here in winter time. They might be well and truly the team to beat to race win or podium. I expect a Brawn vs. Toyota clash in the race with Ferrari and BMW also strong, who also tested here.

  7. Is Kimi getting close to a “great on the right day if the car is right etc” driver? Felipe has my vote for Ferrari team leader but perhaps Bahrein will be the right track for Kimi. Exciting, can’t wait, away from home then in zone of no mobile broadband. Envy you all

    1. Bahrein is one of the four “Massa” tracks (along with Turkey, Europe and Brazil). I doubt Kimi is going to beat him there.

    2. All drivers are great on the right day if the car is right ;) The question is, what happens on the other days?

  8. I think Hamilton will be the man to watch in Bahrain.

  9. BRAWN GP 1-3 WITH TOYOTA and RED BULL completing the top 6…………Looks sunny all weekend around…..Tire temperature would not pose a problem ………..

  10. To Erico. Mclaren will be strong but not that strong.
    I count on brawn, red bull and maybe ferrari.

  11. If it is a normal regular race I think the Brawns will be the car to beat again, followed by the Toyotas and the Red Bulls and hopefully Williams will have a good race.

    After there were sandstorms at Bahrain when some teams did pre season testing does anyone know if sandstorms in this part of the world are seasonal or if there is an equal chance of them happening at any time of the year.

    I seem to recall Button has had problems heating his tyres in the past, I think it was the 2006 Australian Grand Prix which had a few safety car periods. Button started on pole but if I remember correctly he kept losing places after the restarts because his tyres were too cold. Button is noted for having a smooth driving style so while this won’t damage the tyres as much as others it won’t generate the heat either.

  12. I’ll laugh so much if it rains just like it did in that moto GP race in Qatar (it proberly won’t happen but we can all dream).

  13. I think we need a few dry GPs, especially some of the European ones. Too much rain and we won’t be able to see the real performance of some teams. Look back to the last couple of years where every race had a different car at the top. This year, it’s really been just Brawn and some competition from RBR. Would love to see Ferrari, McLaren, BMW and perhaps Renault fighting for the points. Would make for an awesome season!

  14. You should also add a “Drivers not to keep an eye on”

    1. Piquet

    2. Nakajima

    3. Bourdais

    1. You could also spin that concept as a “Drivers under pressure” type deal ;)

  15. I predict Ferrari will once again fail to score points in Bahrain.

    It’s beginning to look like a lot of folks are in denial – it’s pretty clear that they are not in the top 4 teams. Red Bull, BrawnGP, Toyota, McLaren, and probably Williams all have better cars at the moment. That’s 10 cars right there. Ending the race in the top 8 with 10 clearly better cars on the grid is asking for too much from the drivers. (And this is not even counting Alonso and possibly Kubica).

    They just don’t have a top 8 car. It’s that simple. So no points.

    Their only chance of points is to go radical with their strategy and hope for attrition, safety car, etc.

    Maybe it’ll be a different story come Spain and new aero updates for the F60.

    1. Maybe Kurtosis…just maybe! I kind of have this innate feeling that Ferrari will bounce back pretty sooner that we all expect. I feel with their drastic mgt changes..we’re bound to see some massive improvements in their performance.
      The top achelons in Ferrari cannot just sit amid a ‘No-Pointer’ three races straight!! I see a surprise in Bahrain…it it might just be a ‘RED’ surprise Kurtosis!

  16. One of the things I enjoy most about this board is that it’s insightful, funny and (mostly) pretty friendly.

    It speaks volumes that on the very rare occasion someone adds those kind of comments, everyone ignores it. Nice.

  17. It is true Piquet has not shown so far in GP racing but still he did very well in GP2 often beating Hamilton.
    Cant help but having the impression that Renault is not a good place for him. He makes the impression of a talented and sensitive person. Perhaps a new team with a good car would allow him to make a fresh start. What about Williams?

    1. That’s not an entirely fair comparison. Hamilton was a rookie in GP2 while Piquet was in his second year. Hamilton was champion in his rookie year. Piquet came 6th in his rookie year.

      Rosberg was champ in 2005 when Piquet was 6th. So by your analogy it doesn’t make much sense to put Piquet in the William?

      I’d say Piquet would be a good fit for a Force India, but not much more than that. Maybe a Torro Rosso.

  18. @ Kutigz,

    Well, one can always hope.

    But you illustrate my point about denial very well. The F60 is technically deficient compared to its competitors on the grid. At the moment it is not a top 8 car. No amount of management fretting or shake-ups, commenting about driver motivation, leadership, or Ferrari’s history will change the fact that it is a broad-based technical deficiency in the F60.

    And the technical problems cannot be fixed overnight, and especially not between flyaway races. So status quo for Ferrari at Bahrain.

    Spain will be interesting, though I wouldn’t keep my hopes up.

    The technical problems include a lack of downforce, an inability to sit well without KERS (since it was designed around it), KERS reliability, and general reliability issues with the engine.

    1. Quite right Kutosis…ur arguments cannot be denied – ‘cos the F60 it is as it is – an unreliable bolt!
      But…and this where i’m basing my feeling…there was an improvement in their performance in Shangai..check the data stats (both in qualifying & race day)…and remember that’s in the wet. I still think they might pull a surprise one Kurtosis. And remember…’MIGHT’.

  19. Eddie Irvine
    21st April 2009, 14:16

    OK Vettel is a great driver but what about Webber, he recovered from a broken leg and he managed to finished 2nd in his 3rd grand prix after that. Also it was very easy to see that in Shangai Red Bull team clearly support Vettel, in the first series of pit stops they put Webber in first while he was heavier than Vettel, something that made him fight with button for many laps costing him very important seconds.
    Webber did the most thrilling overtaking move in this GP
    Barrichelo did the fastest lap and
    Hamilton had the most eventful race

    After all it wasn’t an all-Vettel grand prix

    oh…almost forgot…BIG congratulations to the most talented Formula 1 designer…Well done Andrian Newey!

    In conclusion my prediction is that Brawn will be on top again with Webber closely behind and maybe McLaren^ gain some more tenths. I hope a better result will finally come for Williams.

    1. I don’t think RBR are favouring Vettel… just yet… if Webber doesn’t start beating him they may well do though.

      The thing about the pit stops and who came in first was well documented on the BBC post race analysis article… Vettel was due to pit a lap earlier than Webber, but due to better fuel management in the first stint Vettel gained another lap on his fuel, and therefore they were both coming in on the same lap… in that situation the driver in the lead has the advantage, and Webber was brought in a lap early.

      I firmly believe that had Webber not had to fight and get past Button for those laps, he would have been right up with Vettel (maybe not enough to challenge for the win, but a significant amount closer at the end)… in effect, showing the same pace and ability in the conditions.

      My money is on Webber taking at least one win this year.

    2. I guess re-reading my post, it could be argued that had Vettel came in first rather than Webber, then Webber would have taken the win and the whole race was decided at that point.

      All the signs are that Vettel & Webber are equal in my eyes.

    3. Indeed Webber did drive a great race, and I very much hope he ends up on top of the podium at least once this season. But the guy I would be talking about is Heikki- from what I could see he drove a better race than Lewis last week.

  20. After the race Barrichello complained of brake problems and said that he often had to decelerate much earlier in the straights, which led to him being passed by Button. Something with the right-rear brake not working properly.

    It’s probably due to the limited testing Brawn GP had that they’re seeing these little kinks with the car that would have otherwise been taken care of in the testing phase.

  21. You should also add a “Drivers not to keep an eye on”

    1. Piquet

    2. Nakajima

    3. Bourdais

    How long will Bourdais last with Buemi doing so well? I thought Bourdais, with a season under his belt and now on slick tyres would be better. I guess I was wrong.

    1. In the Q&A published today Bourdais complains that he’s unhappy with an oversteering car. So these regulations would not be in his favor. Although he’s hoping the new rear will give him more rear downforce and thus better balance.

      I’m not holding my breath though. It’s really starting to look like this is the last season of Bourdais in F1.

    2. Could be right- it’s still early but I am also expecting more from him. Buemi has been a great surprise, but Bourdais needs to at least keep pace with him, or else Red Bull will put one of those many young drivers of theirs in the seat.

    3. Patrickl – Didn’t he say something similar about last year’s car not suiting his style? I might’ve bought it once, but…

    4. Yeah, I do remember Bourdais using the “this car doesn’t suit my style” card last year too. I don’t think it’s allowed to do that twice in a row …

      Still utterly amazing how such a great champion (F3000 and 4 times successive IndyCar/Champcar) cannot succeed in F1.

      Maybe F1 just doesn’t suit his style altogether. IIRC Zanardi had the same problem and maybe Andretti too.

  22. I’ve got a serious question:

    Why aren’t the Torro Rossos as fast as the Red Bulls???
    Both cars were designed by Newey, they look exactly the same. Did Newey make sure they only look fast but are not able to compete with those of the team he works for?

    1. You’re forgetting the engine. The engine plays a part not just in the power it provides, but its weight and how it fits in the car.

      The RBR chassis is optimized for the Renault engine, which is why Ferrari-powered STR is a bit behind in this regard. It was only Vettel’s ability that masked this last season.

    2. Or maybe Bourdais’ lack of ability is what was making the STR look bad? Buemi is doing fine with this years STR. If he hadn’t knocked his front wing on Vettel, he would have been nicely in the points.

      Still even Buemi is not getting close to the “mother” cars.

      Could be that they lack the facilities to get the best out of the car. Look at A1GP where all teams basically get the same car, but a few companies prepare the car a lot better than others. France dominated the first two seasons and then their tech team went to support Germany, New Zealand and Zwitserland. Then all of a sudden those 3 teams started winning races.

  23. Accidentalmick
    21st April 2009, 16:09

    Newey would not intentionaly design a flawed car (neither would anyone else at this level).

    Don’t forget they are using different engines (see previous posts about Ferrari engines).

  24. Rick DeNatale
    21st April 2009, 16:12

    The trade-off for the six-second 80bhp boost it provides is less than optimal weight distribution, which makes tyre management especially difficult. Therefore Bridgestone’s decision to bring a greater variation in tyre performance this year may be inadvertently making teams less keen to use KERS.

    Was that Bridgestone’s decision? I thought that it was required by the 2009 rules.

    Brawn vs. Red Bull? maybe it’s really (Ross) Brawn vs Ferrari. I was interested to see the Niki Lauda has opined that the real problem at Ferrari is the loss of Ross Brawn as technical director. Niki suggests that Ferrari’s successes during the Shumacher era were largely due to a combination of Brawn’s technical abilities and his ability to act as an intermediary between the Ferrari “spaghetti culture” and Michael’s germanic nature. As an Austrian who had a great deal of success driving for Ferrari, I suspect Herr Lauda has some real insight there.

    Then again maybe it’s just that I became an F1 fan during the Lauda/Hunt/Fittipaldi/Andretti era.

  25. I tip Barrichello to win this one.No doubt Brawn GP would be strong in dry conditions.Red Bull could be there challenging……….How i’d love to see Webber win!Ferrari will struggle yet again

  26. Patrickl
    I’d say Piquet would be a good fit for a Force India, but not much more than that. Maybe a Torro Rosso.

    Haha, no. Or only if Sutil gets a drive at Renault in return. Piquet should not be in F1.

    1. I don’t think Sutil is any better than Piquet though.

      Sutil crashes about as often as Piquet does and I wouldn’t be surprised if a big part of the poor performance of that FI can be attributed to the drivers. Imagine two Bourdais’s in the STR or two Nakajima’s in the Williams. Those cars would look a whole lot worse too, if both drivers were not quite up to spec.

      Don’t forget, when Hamilton and Sutil were in the same F3 team, Sutil was destroyed by Hamilton. The battle between Hamilton and Piquet in GP2 was a lot closer.

  27. Torro Rosso didn’t do much testing as they got the car late. Aerodynamically, there isn’t much difference btwween the RBR and the STR.

    Barichello suffered from a brake balance problem. Apparently one of his brakes wasn’t working so the car had a tendency to yaw under braking.

    Currently, the Ferrari is faster than the Mclaren. Ferrari is just failing on strategy and reliability.

    With the teams not getting any in season testing, they will sure welcome a few dry races. Its easier to estimate the true pecking order when the circuit is dry.

    Brawn and RBR are now in contention for wins. Toyota may already be on the decline, as for williams, I’m yet to understand how they’ve missed so many opportunities.

  28. I’m just beginning to wonder if STR shouldn’t have gone for Sato in the other car. Bourdais is looking like he’ll struggle all season.

  29. The Red Bull v Toro Rosso argument posted earlier covers most of the points about the cars but surely the drivers make the difference. Exchange that promising newcomer Buemi for Vettel , my money would still be on Vettel. Lets not take that argument too far. Mark is a great supporting act and may get a win one day. Bourdais has had every chance to prove himself and came up short. Piquet is out of his depth at Renault too.

    Ferrari are in a peculiar place. We warmed to Domencali and Felipe in the last two years, it seemed to be a more Italian team, but their lawyer’s comments about Ross Brawn are taking them back to being the “nasty squad”. I hope Italian fans can convey to them that we do not want them back there.

    1. @CJD

      You say Piquet is out of his depth at Renault. I think Jenson Button struggled at Benenton/Renault under Flavio Briatore and, now all Flav can do is say Button is a tallentless “concrete post!”

      | predict Ross Brawn and Jenson Buitton will evolve and get close to emulating the Brawn/Schumacher partnerships at Benneton and Ferarri.

  30. I would expect Brawn to be strong this weekend, but also don’t forget that Vettel drove very, very well in Melbourne before the crash with Kubica. I think Red Bull will be right at the top of the grid again this weekend- my questions revolve with the other clubs that are a bit behind the curve- McLaren, Ferrari, Etc..

  31. Marco Aurélio
    21st April 2009, 22:40

    Diffusers are made to fly not to swim.
    This diffusers doesn’t work with water, but wind.

  32. About the Red Bull vs. Toro Rosso argument, the cars were not the same in Melbourne. I read somewhere that Toro Rosso brought in some updates (for China) to make it closer to the Newey car. “Closer”, not “identical”, was quoted in the article.

    If we add the different engine/setup argument and different driver experience/skill levels, the performance gap is not surprising at all. In fact Buemi did quite well in China, so maybe a hint that, aero-wise, the cars are much closer now (in addition to Buemi getting more experienced race after race ;).

  33. Ferrari and McLaren are done. Forget about them. Just as Massa and Kimi and I’d even risk saying Hamilton and Alonso are done too, if luck doesn’t come their way.
    (I heard an italian speaker say, during the Shangai GP, that Vettel is ready to drive for a big team. That he will soon be going to Ferrari. Why the hell would he leave the 1-2 winning Red Bull to go to a team that scored 0 points in 3 races?)

  34. Barrichello is overdue as well, if his brakes don’t work at 100 he doesn’t perform, and this is longstanding with him. You have to give it to Button though in that he is much improved this year.

    Trulli and both Ferrari guys are going to be on a mission and their car is not hugely changed yet from when they tested at Bahrain.

    One thing I am noting is just how tough the Toyota and Brawn front wings are. They are built like bullbars and Glock in particluar knows how to use one doesn’t he?

    I think too that Webber is still faster over a lap than Vettel by a shade. Vettel was quoted as saying his new tub post the Melbourne crash was faster than his old one and that may not be just a jibe or related to the bolt on bits for Shanghai. Coming from behind in Shanghai Webber was also pushing purples and while Vettel matched & shaded him his tyres didn’t have to scrap their way into his race position at that point. Mark just has to watch his particular choice of puddles at times and rebuild confidence. It is so much easier being the young guy with early success on success than a guy who has done it tough for years not getting the laurels for lack of vehicle opportunity.

  35. Someone teach Mr. Nico how to manage tires during races, that would make him win more. He is a great driver and has a much better car to fight the frontrunners than he has ever had. Like Nick had problems warming his tyres last year, this young genius is having this little problem. Move over McLaran and Renault, Ferrari. The new kids on the block are awesome.
    Four way fight I would like to see : Brawn, RBR, Toyota, Williams.

  36. Brawn tyre performance is interesting. If the car does not heat its tyre easily this could be due to
    1. low mechanical grip
    2. low braking force
    3. unagressive down force

    We have not seen any evidence of 1 or 2 so it would appear that the Brawn may have sufficient down force for the job and arguably has such good mechanical grip that downforce is not being piled on to make up for any lack in that direction. We should expect less drag and higher speed on the straight than any car of comparable cornering power though cars with less ability and slower lap times may appear to be faster because their setup has been distorted.
    We need an aero dynamacist, any volunteers?

  37. I think the season so far is unusual and you cannot predict the best team out there.Rain brings strange podium winners (Luck). Lets get a few dry races under out belts and then see who shines.

    All the teams know what there doing out there,they are the professionals with huge teams of designers.

    Lets all sit back in our armchairs and watch a few dry races.

  38. StrFerrari4Ever
    22nd April 2009, 16:15

    Okay lets get one thing straight Toro Rosso arent slower than RBR it’s just they received their car later so they had limited testing time.
    Which meant they didn’t do as much setup work as RBR so these first few races are just understanding the car more and getting more data.
    It will take a couple of races more before we see the true potential of the STR4 i can understand people also saying the driver ability comes into play aswell but Buemi is a rookie so his still learning and is doing great.
    But hopefully they can win a race like last year and finish higher up in the constructors championship (i hope Buemi wins some races and challenges Vettel to become youngest drivers champion ever :D)Very hopeful but anythings possible & Bourdais cut the Bull yeah you cant take being beaten by a younger teammate (like last year) just leave F1 i backed Sato for the seat his a faster driver IMO

  39. This year was always going to set the cat amongst the pidgeons with all the new changes and more impotantly the testing ban. Yes, at the moment it looks like it will be a Brawn (Honda)dominated year with Red Bull and Toyota in hot pursuit. But to quote the great Murray Walker. “Anything can happen in Formula One, and it usually does” Button to win in Bahrain. One Ferrari in the points and another retirement for Nelson Piquet. Fastest lap for Nico Rosberg. Barrichello on pole.

  40. My guess is that the Button car has the A_team personnel at Brawn. And Vettel could have them on the Red Bull team. I say that because I think a team has a motivation to put it’s best resources with a May instead of September driver, all other things being equal.

    Also, I think Toyota will be right up there with their 2nd generation DD (which is now a TD). At Red Bull they will have to be content to hot-rod their existing diffuser until later in the season. I don’t know if Brawn are messing with success.

    So who will prevail? I think I’m going 1st) Toyota/Trulli 2nd) Red Bull/Vettel and 3) Button/Brawn (not my final sweepstakes guess however, wanna see some practice sesions first! ;-)

  41. Brawn4Constructors
    23rd April 2009, 4:09

    One thing I haven’t seen mentioned is that Button had a HUGE chance to win the Chinese Gran Prix.

    There was a Safety Car mid race that absolutely screwed him. His fuel strategy was working right and if he could have maintained pace and gotten the proper IN and OUT Lap…he might very well have stayed in front of Vettel.

    I’m surprised no one has talked about this and the British Press did not run the headline: “Safety Car Dashes Button Hopes in Shanghai.”

    Am I right about this or was I bleary-eyed at 5am NY time??

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