Hamilton’s light car leaves him vulnerable (Italian GP fuel weights and strategy)

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Heikki Kovalainen's Mclaren has 20kg more fuel than the cars in front

Adrian Sutil will be able to go one lap longer than Lewis Hamilton at the start of the Italian Grand Prix.

But Heikki Kovalainen could be the man to watch as he’s fuelled to make his pit stop much later than the three drivers in front of him. Here’s the fuel weights in full.

Italian Grand Prix fuel weights and pit stop predictions

GridNameWeightFuel (kg)First stint (laps)
1Lewis Hamilton653.548.517
2Adrian Sutil6555018
3Kimi Raikkonen6625721
4Heikki Kovalainen6837829
5Rubens Barrichello688.583.532
6Jenson Button6878231
7Vitantonio Liuzzi679.574.528
8Fernando Alonso677.572.527
9Sebastian Vettel6827729
10Mark Webber6837829
11Jarno Trulli7039837
12Romain Grosjean699.894.836
13Robert Kubica697.592.535
14Giancarlo Fisichella6908532
15Nick Heidfeld697.592.535
16Timo Glock709.8104.840
17Kazuki Nakajima706.2101.239
18Nico Rosberg708.6103.640
19Sebastien Burmi70610139
20Jaime Alguersuari70610139

The start

First-lap collisions and penalties are highly likely at Monza’s tight first corner.

The new kerbs at the Rettifilio have been lowered, but drivers are still going to want to steer clear of them. Anyone who arrives at the first corner too quickly and cuts it will have to give back any places they’ve gained.

Second on the grid with a pair of KERS cars behind him, Sutil is a sitting duck. There’s little chance of him keeping Kimi Raikkonen and Kovalainen behind at the start. This also means Hamilton’s chances of losing the lead at the start are pretty slim, unless Raikkonen makes a particularly good getaway.

Fernando Alonso and Romain Grosjean also have KERS at their disposal at the start and lts of non-KERS cars in front of them to pick off. Each could threaten the championship contenders – Alonso the Brawns, and Grosjean the Red Bulls. As at Spa two weeks ago, this could easily get very messy.

Another word on those chicanes – during the GP2 race drivers who cut them three times were automatically given drive-through penalties. We could see more of the same tomorrow, particularly if it rains…


After qualifying, the clouds arrived and transformed Monza back into the dark, drenched spectacle we remember from last year. The GP2 feature race was delayed for 40 minutes and was started behind the safety car.

The rainfall radar shows a chance of further rain, potentially quite heavy, around 2pm local time tomorrow. We could yet get another wet Italian Grand Prix, made all the more difficult by the fact the F1 cars haven’t had any wet running at the track yet this year.

If the rain arrives we can throw most of our assumptions about the race out the window. A rolling start behind the safety car would help Hamilton keep his lead and guarantee him a clear view of the track ahead. But it might also play into the hands of those with more fuel on on board, who could stop later.

Even without the rain, we’ve got a good chance of an excellent race tomorrow. Who’s your tip for the win?

Italian Grand Prix

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Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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123 comments on “Hamilton’s light car leaves him vulnerable (Italian GP fuel weights and strategy)”

  1. Wow really interesting weights Kovalainen if all goes well could get the win but 53 laps is a long time.

    The weather if it does rain and I hope it does will cause chaos and test the nerves of the teams the 1 stoppers would benefit so much if the race was raced under conditions where it’s chucking it down.

    Either way hopefully we get a Grand Prix to remember for a longtime!

    1. I disagree, Barrichelo is my favourite to win the race. He has 3 laps on Kovi to push an advantage in, so long as he stays with Kovi at the start he can win the race.

      1. 2 stops doesn’t look favourite and if the weather holds then for me its now out of Kovi, Button, and Barrichello. Like you said if Barrichello can keep with Kovi his extra fuel will put him in the lead after pits. But if Kovi gets a bit of a lead on them its his to take today.

        Who knows an accident causing damage or bad pitting or whatever from one of those 3 could even give Luizzi a chance to be up there.

        But… I think the two stoppers will run away with it if it rains – unless by chance that rain fell exactly around when the one stoppers were pitting.

        Should be a good race, and might not see a front row winner today.

  2. OMG! Kovi! i think I’ve been too harsh on him. Wow! Now that is definitely an one stopper. If he can manage to jump Sutil & Iceman at the start, this race is his. Good job to get in front of both the Brawns. that Force India is really quick. Good job by Luizzi too. Nico & Glock are fueled to Singapore or what?

    1. He’s a good qualifier, but he hasn’t quite got it together in the races (compared to hamilton). We’ll see if he can do it this time.

      1. He’s a good qualifier, but he hasn’t quite got it together in the races

        Looks like you have memorized what the so called “TV Pundits” say.. Good for you.
        If Lewis gets stuck behind a slower car, I don’t remember the Pundits calling him a slouch, If Macca strategy results in Kovy getting stuck in traffic, “He can’t pull it together in race”
        Double standards is all I can say…

        1. Thanks for playing, plus being an utter asshat to a fellow user on F1F, Agileracer. What rfs says is completely true and no amount of TV punditry (for or against) Kovalainen could make up for the fact that he hasn’t been producing this season (or any other for that matter).

          As for your comments re: McLaren…well I’m sorry but imho you are full of it.

          Oh btw, Good for you.

        2. I agree, and maclaren have become a one driver team, Ron Dennis wouldn’t have let that happen. Poor heikki

    2. OMG! Kovi! i think I’ve been too harsh on him.

      Thats the story of his McLaren Career. If this was a normal year ( Ferrari/McLaren battling for championship). You would have seen somewhere in last pages of McLaren debrief a tiny statement ” fuel corrected Kovy was faster than Lewis, getting stuck in traffic means his race strategy was compromised” This was what was happening with him 2008. But Alas who cares for the likes the Kovys and Naks, All that fans(ignorant is mild word to describer them)do is take things on face value and blast the drivers.
      One can pardon Fans, but the team management that knows the reality, conveniently forget and ruin careers of these “domestiques” by making statements that not necessarily reflect reality.

      If team like Williams does candid acceptance/evaluation of someone like Nak (Which they do if you follow their team debriefs), Fans make superficial observation “Kaz is just on grid because he is Toyata candidate” So very unfair.

      Thanks for @least accepting that you were harsh on a driver. Hope more fans show this kind of awareness.

      And hope you don’t forget this statement, two weeks from now ;)

      1. Awesome comment.

        Agreed wholeheartedly. I wish we had access to the engineers thoughts.

        More generally, I think a lot of the performance and even procedural aspects of Formula 1 are completely and totally opaque to the fans and even to the media (like BBC).

        This lack of information means that fans and the media alike will cling on to any scrap of information and spin a theory or narrative around it – often exposing their own biases and desires in the process.

        1. Awesome comment.

          Agreed wholeheartedly. I wish we had access to the engineers thoughts.

          Thanks for your support.

          Well with Fuel loads being made public after qualifiers, Fans can get a real picture, of how the teams fuel their two drivers and as such relative performance, like we have here for Hamilton-Vs-Kovy or Rubens-Vs-Jenson.

          About the Journos, Press and TV Pundits (some of whom have earlier managed some drivers), well they definitely have affinity based on drivers kind of PR/Rapport they build with them.. Enough said, on for the race

      2. Interesting but week after week Kovi goes to Woking and is at least 0.5 sec behind Lewis on the simulator. He has a different style to Lewis and Pedro which McLaren have tried to change.
        Oh well he’s out of contract soon.

        1. Oh well he’s out of contract soon.

          I´m not so sure. Martin Whitmarsh said on Finnish tv that Heikki Kovalainen will PROBABLY stay in McLaren for a long time…

      3. Utter nonsense. Other drivers can work with a longer srategy. Look at the Brawns, they are fueled to go even longer.

        Kovalainen simply drops it in the race. Look at Valencia. He qualified fine but then was nowhere on race pace.

        The TV pundits are right and you are blind. Simple.

        1. BTW, Kovalainen doesn’t get stuck in traffic. he generally keeps everybody behind him up. How many “Kovalainen trains” have we seen this season?

    3. Nico & Glock fuelled to Singapore! Lol! Good one!~

  3. Going to be a good race. Ham, Sutil & Raikkonen are ridiculously light compared to everyone else. Barrichello & Button are well placed as long as they avoid a collision at the first corner.

    Does it mean everyone bar Ham, Sutil & Raikkonen are on one-stops?

    1. yup everyone else is on a single stop….53 lap race….

  4. I don’t see why Heiki is the man to watch, since the Brawns just behind him are still heavier, but with a good pace. Special attention to Rubens, 1 lap heavier than his team mate (if he can start when the red lights go off…)

    1. I was thinking that, but they don’t have KERS, so Heikki will leave them behind when the lights go out :P

    2. Because of KERS, the Brawns can’t pass Kovalainen on the track. They have to do it in the pits, and they have to come out a couple of seconds ahead so Kovalainen never gets within range. And, of course, they have to be quicker than the McLarens, which practice and qualifying suggests they aren’t.

      That’s why I think Kovalainen is a bigger threat than the Brawns.

      1. What do you think about Kimi’s race prospects?

  5. Brawns are looking good, Im impressed by Heikkis pace, Raikkonen looks to have the advantage on Hamilton, Hopefully lewis can make a big enough gap before the pit stops. should be an interesting race.

    1. I don’t want an interesting race I want an exciting race!

      1. I think we’ll have it!

      2. I don’t want an interesting race I want an exciting race!

        Hear, hear!

  6. Brawns look good for it, interesting to see still Ruben’s ahead and he has a tiny bit more fuel in the tank. I think Kovy and Liuzzi done well with qualifying with Hamilton’s strategy I’m not sure, if he has blistering pace and so doesn’t lose time he’d have a better chance.

  7. Hamilton will still win the race …hờ hờ

  8. Rain may to save the race tomorrow!

  9. Remember that KERS cars could double stack the KERS during qualifying which will make them look quite a bit quicker than they will be in the race tomorrow. Taking this into account Brawn are clearly quickest with Force India and McLaren fighting for second quickest car.

    If the Brawns keep Alonso behind off the start I can’t see anyone touching them tomorrow.

    1. Hamilton didn’t use KERS twice on the start/finish straight, he was using the boost coming out of each of the chicanes.

      1. Not correct.

        On the outlaps, they were saving their KERS for just after parabolica. One of the shots showed Lewis doing just that.

    2. Good point, Jack.

  10. Kimi is also in a pretty good strategy. If he jumps Sutil at the start, Lewis will need to race a great first stint to keep 1st place.

  11. It looks like the bottom five are hoping for rain…with their fuel load they could make it through the race without stopping.

    1. @xanathos

      It looks like the bottom five are hoping for rain…with their fuel load they could make it through the race without stopping.

      Impossible, they have to use prime and option tyres.
      Unless they change it while driving :D

      1. If it rains they don’t have to do so.

  12. people to watch at the beggining are:
    Raikkonen- to see whether he can get past Sutil and Hamilton.
    Alonso- to see if he can get past Button (and even Rubens?)

  13. Kovalainen is favourite now on my opinion, but it may change tomorrow.
    Barrichello is more competitive on rain conditions.

    1. Agreed… If it rains, he’s got a great chance of winning his third Italian Grand Prix… did any of you remind this? It’s quite funny how Rubens great performances were overshadowed by the fact that he was Schumacher’s no 2 at the time, and his wins felt like the german saying – “I’ve won too much, let him take this one to himself…”

  14. C’mon…Kimi Raikkonen….he is in a better shape than what i had expected

  15. Rubens did a great job out-qualifying Button with a marginally heavier car.

    A lot will depend on how quickly the top 3 get away in the initial laps.

    If there’s rain, I just hope it isn’t so strong as to delay the start or introduce a safety-car start. A wet but drying track would be awesome.

    Should be a fascination race either way!

  16. Well sutil will be 4th by the first corner. All we can hope is that he and the two McLaren’s all take each other out battling for 1st at the chicane, and Sutil streaks off into the distance to win for Force India.

    But being realistic, Kimi might take this one, I think.

    1. I don’t see any advantage Kimi has over Lewis, and might even be overtaken in the pitstops by Heikki and the Brawns, if they get their act together.

  17. This is really interesting!! Curious strategies indeed. This way, there are going to be just 3 scheduled pit-stops in the first half of the race.

    For a 53 lap race, 17 out of 20 drivers are fueled for lap 28 or later. How often do you see that? I foresee 3 possible reasons:

    1. The Monza track probably have a lower penalty for carrying extra weight? How much is the kgs of fuel burned per lap BTW?

    2. Either of the tyrees (soft/hard) are really really bad, but I haven’t any report that concurs with this.

    3. Almost everyone is betting on rain tomorrow and is thus playing safe.

    Curious race in the offing, indeed.

    1. How much is the kgs of fuel burned per lap BTW?

      For this race is 0,33Secs per 10Kg of fuel, and the fuel consumtion per lap is 2,66Kg. So, the effect of 1 lap of fuel is around 0,088 Secs.

      It’s more less little bit below average.

      1. Where’d you get the 2.66kg figure from IDR? Williams reckon 2.525, which is what the above is based on.

        1. Mine should be worst than yours surely. I have taken this figures from this link: http://www.f1world.pl/en/pages/circuits/circuit.php?gp=13

          Those figures are for 2008, not 2009, so could be some differences.

          Btw, could you indicate me how where can I get some indications for Indianapolis about fuel consumption per lap and the effect in car’s speed?

  18. Why are drivers so heavy lately? I mean, 53 laps, 26 is enough for one-stopper, and many won’t pit till lap 30. Is that because of the rain chance?

    1. Might also be uneven due to the relative longevities of the two tyres.

  19. Perhaps Heikki will `stick it in the wall` Lap 17.1

  20. Well, another stupid strategy for Lewis. I couldn’t see why the team send him with that low fuel despite KERS advantange.
    Those pit stop predictions don’t represent the truth all the time. We know McLaren is good at using the fuel mixture. So we can see Lewis at the pit later than the 17th lap.
    Well done to Heikki. Good chance to secure his seat for next year.

  21. I have never understood fuelling a Kers car light because they are just going to make up the places at the start. I reckon Hamilton could have afforded to have about 5 more laps of fuel on board but hey, ill probably get proved wrong.

    Im going for Kimi to make it two in a row, he will be second going into the first corner and first after he pits. I have a feeling there will be some good fighting between the brawns and heikki for the final places on the podium.

    1. Even sutil will be in the mix of things with brawns and heiki….

  22. I might as well just say random stuff, because that’s what a lot of people do here!

    1. And you’re realizing that just now? :D

      Not just here, this phenomenon is entrenched in the F1 world (see Agileracer’s comments above) – I find it quite fascinating actually.

  23. Heikki is looking best i think as he is the highest placed 1 stopper. If the brawns are his next best competition they won’t be able to pass him in pits or on track due to KERS

    Between Hamilton and Raikonnen.. Raiks will pass hamo during the first pit stop from the extra lap of fuel… Raiks will be leapfrogged by a one stopping heiki later on.

    … in theory :P

  24. actually baro will probably pass him in the pits, didnt see baros fat tank :P

  25. Luizzi what a great drive. Best performance of the day. Shame about the Red Bulls being so far down but it’s what was expected. :(

    Hopefully Hamilton or Sutil can get the win tomorrow.

    But I hope for rain..

    1. Amen rain rain please fall and help the Red Bull drivers stand tall!

      To be honest thats their best hope if they want a victory and the rest of the field all 1 stopping so if it does rain it could be very fascinating to watch.

      This race has all the right ingredients hopefully it shall give us a feast of a race!

    2. Don’t you feel it would have been better if they didn’t try to save their engines. Better take pole and suffer a 10 place grid penalty than what they are doing now.

      This far down they just look silly. Or maybe they are just gambling on rain and have adjusted their setup accordingly …

  26. I dont think sutil have much think about fuelload.as last time we have seen mercedes engine have better mileage than ferrai the only thing he have to make sure is to be ahead of kers car if he is able to do so i think he can surely think of winning the race.

    1. U r forgetting that hamilton is also having the same merc engine………But i am also supporting sutil….Go sutil go!!!

  27. not sure if RAI will do 21. the ferrarris seem to take up a lot of fuel

    1. Paige Michael-Shetley
      12th September 2009, 19:07

      Yes, and the Mercedes engine is pretty fuel efficient.

      Hamilton is the man to beat tomorrow if he doesn’t make a mess of the start.

  28. Dumb question, but which side of the track will Ham be starting on? Inside or outside?

      1. This is what I see happening going into the first corner.
        RAI and KOV will use their KERS to overtake SUT, dropping SUT to 4th, then at some point, BUT will pass him, leaving him vulnerable to BAR (if it rains BAR will pass him or they will take each other out). All in all the top 8 will round out like this:
        I put Bar last simply because I cheer for Red Bull and don’t paricularly like Bar. lol.

        1. if you like red bull so much then why did you put Button so high up?

          1. being realistic.

        2. hihihi…hohoho…hehehe….It is Monday now and guess who won?

  29. but he is having more load than hamilton arun. he just have to make sure he keep ferrai back

  30. brian i think you are underestimating luzzi and for your information he is having good fuel in his car.

    1. I just think that LIU and ALO are gonna get bumped out by VET and WEB. I’m putting a lot of faith that LIU will go out in the first corner. Some one usually does, and I so I had to pick some one, unfortuneately it is him. It is no fault of his, but it seems that the home boys almost always never do that great. Sorry.

  31. Paige Michael-Shetley
    12th September 2009, 19:06

    I still think this is Hamilton’s race. Yes, he’s light on fuel, but look how much quicker he is than drivers who are heavier? He’s about a second quicker than the Brawns, and he’ll likely be quicker than that in the race if Alonso jumps them on the start and holds them up. At the pace he’s had all weekend, Hamilton could well come out ahead of the Brawns at the start; at the very least, he’ll build more than enough of a margin to hold them off in the overlaps.

    The only threat to Hamilton is Raikkonen. But whereas Hamilton was less than a tenth quicker than Barrichello in Valencia on the same relative strategies, he’s half a second quicker than Raikkonen at Monza. His pace is genuine, and he should have more than enough of a margin to stay ahead of Raikkonen through the overlaps.

    1. Fuel adjusted Heikki was quickest with Bar in second Ham in third and Button fourth. Only .075 sec seperating all four. So he hasnt really got any advantage over any of his rivals.

      Plus Brawns have a better race pace then the Mclarens so i think tomorrow will be a struggle for lewis.

  32. i am looing forward to this

    kimi and lewis go racing and button and rubans are coming hunting this is going to be the best GP all year…………………………

  33. McLaren have revealed a prototype of their 2010 car, the mp4-25


    1. common….i believed it for once….nice trick….(they aint gonna hve Santander written over their car)

    2. I don’t get it…?

  34. There is no question that the Mercedes engined cars are doing better than the rest. Alonso would do well moving to Brawn instead of Ferrari.
    The future belongs to Mercedes.
    Maybe Hamilton will win tomorrow. Alonso will also be up there, specially if it rains.

  35. Thanks mp4, what do you think of the car?
    Rubens may need to change gearbox tomorrow, the team are going to look at the data. I hope it’s ok or this championship will never close up.

  36. The grid is quite interesting and looks like many cars would have un-scheduled pit stops at the end of lap 1.It looks like the SC is inevitable at the end of Lap 1.
    Firstly we have Sutil surrounded by Kimi & Kovi.(It will be interesting to see how the passing between these cars take place)
    Then we have the second lot, here again we have a FI involved.Tonio having Alonso(KERS) and behind him is a desperate Vettel.
    Third we have KERS at the disposal of two new drivers who are using it for the first time(FISI & GRO).Wonder how they wud manage it at the start.
    Hence fuel loads would mean nothing as there are always possibilities that the cars make an unscheduled pit stop(just similar to what happened at Spa).
    But this uncertainity is what makes this sport so interesting….

  37. How are the pit stops predicted? FIA just publishes the total weight of the car and I am sure Sutil is lot heavier than Hamilton and there is always possibility that the driver’s weight changes from race to race. Are there numericals that eloborates the Car’s weight given above?

    1. didnt realise its just the cars weight without the driver…:D

      1. The weight is actually including the driver, but the cars are built underweight and they use ballast to reach the minimum 605kg (with no fuel).
        It is assumed that all cars weigh 605kg. but if you have a heavy KERS and a heavy driver you might have to add extra ballast to get the balance right (that’s a possible reason why Kimi pitted so early in Belgium).

    2. The cars’ minimum weight including the driver is 605kg, and all the teams can build a car lighter than that, they use ballast to get to 605kg. Anything on top of that is fuel, so the difference is their fuel weight.

      Williams estimate 2.525kg of per lap, so we can work out how many laps they can do on that fuel load. They also have to drive to the grid and do their formation lap on that fuel, although not at race pace, so we deduct one laps’ worth of fuel.

      Obviously, there are limitations to how accurately we can model this. We’re just using a general average figure when each engine will have a different rate of fuel consumption. Driving style can have a big effect too, especially on the formation lap. For example, at Spa, Raikkonen believed he lost his fuel weight advantage over Fisichella by aggressively warming up his tyres on the formation lap.

  38. I don’t think that Lewis is particularly vulnerable, given his position and fuel strategy. Sure, he’s light; but this has given him pole, which will be very helpfull. First, being light, Lewis should have good pace to pull away, especially if slower cars get in between him and his quick opponents, such as Brawn and Red Bull. Second, Lewis has a clear run into the first corner and is unlikely to be involved in any first-corner (potentially race-ruining) incident. Third, Lewis should have good visibility if it rains.

    Moreover, if you look at the fuel-corrected grid, McLaren are strong. Lewis might be ever so slightly behind Kovi, here, but we know that Kovi cannot sustain this in race pace; and Lewis can.

    1 Kovalainen (lap 28 of 53)
    2 Barrichello +0.016 (lap 30)
    3 Hamilton +0.047 (lap 16)
    4 Button +0.073 (lap 29)
    5 Sutil +0.200 (lap 17)
    6 Raikkonen +0.266 (lap 19)
    7 Liuzzi +0.296 (lap 27)
    8 Vettel +0.363 (lap 27)
    9 Alonso+0.381 (lap 26)
    10 Webber +0.469 (lap 28)

    [From BBC]

    1. Can somebody clarify what is the exact meaning of this fuel-corrected grid data and how is it calculated?

      1. I think they ascribe a time deficit per lap for every kilo of fuel and work it out from there.

        To be honest, I have little to no faith in these calculations which is why I don’t rely on them. It’s a hypothetical too far for me.

        1. To be honest, I have little to no faith in these calculations which is why I don’t rely on them. It’s a hypothetical too far for me.

          Well, I think for fuel correction are far more accurate than for pit stop estimations.

          For fuel corrected figures the important thing is lap differences between drivers, not the exact lap they are going to pit, so I think are much more accurate. It’s just important to be consistent with all calculations for all drivers, that’s all. (And have a not to bad estimation of the effect in speed of 1 lap of fuel)

          In any case, I agree is a theoretical exercise given each driver could have performed badly (As Sutil in Q3) so is just theory; but giving you good information about fuel loads and performance despite it is not exact.

          1. (and have a not too* bad…)

  39. i wish Bar has gearbox change than luzzi have a good chance making in point tomm.it just sutil who have problem having kERS CAR in front and back. Tomm he(sutil) have to drive sensibly other than doing anthing stupid on first lap.If he is able to keep ferrai back in first lap than he can look good for whole race.

    1. If he is able to keep ferrai back in first lap


      true FI fan eh??

  40. If it rains you’ve got cats-in-a-bag….

    How long can Button keep sleep walking his way toward somebodies championship? If he continue in the current form, and still wins the driver’s C, it has got to be the the strangest road to a coronation in memory.

    In fact this whole season is more than a bit twisted. I just hope we go into the last race with a handful of possible champions.

    As for tomorrow……….let the boys from the Sub-continent have their day…variety is the spice of life you know.

  41. I think this will be a race between Lewis and Kimi for P1 & P2 with Bar, Sut & Kov fighting for P3. Expect Button to be behind Alonso at the start.

    I think Ferrari will have the measure of Mclaren so I expect Lewis to be watching Kimi’s rear after the first stop.

  42. 6 Mercedes powered cars in the top 10. Surely that’s a new record since the demise of the Cosworth DFV?

  43. it show that it wont rain tomm,till eveining so we can expect dry race tomm.

  44. The only thing i fear of sutil is will he able to keep himself away from trouble tomm.

  45. It’s rained today so the tracks green tomorrow. Light cars on option tyres will rule the first 15 laps. Then cars on prime tyres and heavier fuel loads as the track rubbers in.
    Going to be a good race.

    1. HounslowBusGarage
      12th September 2009, 20:53

      Yes, but.
      There are several races prior to the GP including a GP2 race in the morning . So the track won’t be totally green. Just green-ish.

  46. Hamilton has to make his escape come true, Kovy and Raikko have only not to stop one another. Hami’s escape could be delicious if he has got good new softer tyres..

  47. i think betpusher is right hamilton will have to make sure he come out sweetly of first corner.i am sure kov is gonna give hard time to raikko.

  48. Younger Hamilton
    12th September 2009, 21:08

    wait it should be true dat if you have a lighter car you’re faster

    1. Oh my lord, i think your right!

  49. I predicted Barrichello for the win but Kovlainen also looks strong but we have seen he is not really a match to those around him. Anyway Rain would be good news for Red Bull especially Vettel

  50. simple… If the race starts with rain, Heikki is in it to win it… when the race starts anyway else it’s lewis’ time to shine!

  51. Could this be the first time we get to see cars with KERS going up against each other? I don’t remember seeing any KERS on KERS fights going on so far.

    1. I can’t think of any, either.

    2. I remember Alonso and Hamilton fighting for position in one of the earlier races.

  52. After first corner it will be Lewis, Kimi, Heikki, Sutil. After that everyting else will be mystery.

    Depends where those 2 stoppers will be end after first stop. It looks very much like Heikkis race to lose. He has more fuel than 2 stoppers but are still lighter than 1 stoppers behinde him and he has Kers.

    If safety car comes to track beginning of the race it will take advantage away from Lewis and his light car because he can not make cap between him and heavier car what he needs for his 2 stop stragedy and it is too early to refuel him …well not him but car lol.

    It will be very very intresting race. I hope that Barrichello beat Jenson, poor Barrichello really need some good time in f1 after all those years in the shadow of Schumacher.

  53. Ferrari is not very economic when talking fuel consumption. I think Kimi do not have 4 laps to Lewis. I think theres maybe two laps. Anyway, they both need to have big gap to Heikki and maybe Brawns if they want to really fight for win.

    There´s still possibility that Raikkonen and Sutil crash again in first corner after start. History is often repeating itself, unfortunately….

  54. Other than top 3 everybody is on 1 stop so if it rains its their advantage,but if we have a changeable condition like 2007 European GP then we will have further drama.

    At last for the win it will be Hamilton VS Raikkonen with one of the Brawn on the podium

  55. Don’t rule out the possibility of a Barrichello and Button crashing in the beginning, at the first chicane…

  56. Heikki is key person, if he can keep Brawns behind him until pitstops then Lewis will win and Kimi be second. Brawns are the fastest cars and they need to overtake Heikki in very beginning, then it will theirs race because of better strategy. McLaren is clearly faster than Ferrari, Kimi can’t to do anything agains Lewis if race is between them. Unfortunately Adrian has no chance.

  57. Prisoner Monkeys
    13th September 2009, 8:27

    I have to say … this has to be the stupidest decision McLaren has ever made. KERS might give an extra eighty horsepower for six seconds a lap, but that does not mean Hamilton will get enough of a lead to go through the first round of stops without losing a place.

    1. you think lewis had no say in his strategy? i don’t think maclaren could make lewis do a stratagy he isn’t happy with if they tried. When it all goes well, it will be Lewis’ victory if it goes wrong then it’s the teams fault. that seems to be they way of things where Lewis is concerned.

  58. Am watching the GP2 sprint race at the moment and the track is dry. Updates on Twitter: http://twitter.com/f1fanatic_co_uk

  59. I’m not convinced heikki will get sutil off the start. sure he has KERS but he also has nearly 30Kg more weight to haul off the line. I think its between lewis and the brawns for the win. if the brawns get slowed up by alonso or heikki then lewis will win. otherwise whichever brawn is ahead on the first lap will do it. especially as i think they will conserve their tyres best of all.

  60. here is what i’d like the results to be
    1. heikki
    2. kimi
    3. sutillor button

    what i think will happen

    1. bar
    3. lewis

    some kind of bad luck will happen to heikki, it always does. he is the all new jonny herbert, where before the race we used to guess by what lap he would be talking to louise goodman through no fault of his own.

  61. Funny ,about six weeks ago Alonso ran light to get pole,an this board whines… now Hammy does it…lots of homers here.

  62. Italian GP (Monza): Comparing predicted and actual pit stops.

    Grid . . kg . .Pred. Actual . . . . Fin
    .. . . . . . . La. T La T La T La T 53Laps
    01k HAM  48.5  17  s 16 m 34 m 53!  12
    02  SUT  50.0  18  s -- - 18 m 38 - 04
    03k RAI  57.0  21  s -- - 19 s 38 m 03
    04k KOV  78.0  29  m -- - 28 s -- - 06
    05  BAR  83.5  32  m -- - 30 s -- - 01
    06  BUT  82.0  31  s -- - 29 - -- - 02
    07  LIU  74.5  28  s -- - 24r  -- - RET
    08k ALO  72.5  27  s -- - 27 m -- - 05
    09  VET  77.0  29  - -- - 28 s -- - 08
    10  WEB  78.0  29  - 01r  -- - -- - RET
    11  TRU  98.0  37  - -- - 36 - -- - 14
    12k GRO  94.8  36  - -- - 34 - -- - 15
    13  KUB  92.5  35  s 10!m 17r  -- - RET
    14k FIS  85.0  32  s -- - 31 m -- - 09
    15  HEI  92.5  35  - -- - 32 - -- - 07
    16  GLO 104.8  40  - -- - 39 - -- - 11
    17  NAK 101.2  39  - -- - 36 - -- - 10
    18  ROS 103.6  40  m 05!s 17 - 42 - 16
    19  BUE 101.0  39  - -- - 37 - 53!  13
    20  ALG 101.0  39  - -- - 20r  -- - RET

    k = KERS, m = medium tyres, s = soft tyres

    Drivers: Badoer loses Ferrari drive. Fisichella gets Badoer’s seat. Vitantonio Liuzzi gets Fisichella’s seat at Force India.

    Safety car: Last lap. Race finishes under safety car.

    Fine and dry.
    Temp. air: 26 C, track: 39 C
    Wind: 1 m/s

    Order at end of first lap:
    HAM, RAI(+1), SUT(-1), BAR(+1), BUT(+1), LIU(+1), KOV(-3), VET(+1), ALO(-1), KUB(+3), FIS(+3), HEI(+3), TRU(-2), ROS(+4), NAK(+2), GRO(-4), GLO(-1), BUE(+1), ALG(+1), WEB(-10)

    KERS at start:
    HAM(0), RAI(+1), KOV(-3), ALO(-1), FIS(+2), GRO(-5) allowing for Webber. Average -1 place.

    (1)KUB hits WEB, damages wing; WEB pushed off track; GRO contact, damages tyre; (24)LIU stops on track
    (gearbox); (38)SUT hits mechanic on pit stop, knocks off mirror; (49)Toyotas contact, TRU loses places; (53)HAM spins off at Lesmo, S/C deployed

    (5)ROS (body damaged by debris, aerodynamics compromised); (10)KUB (front wing) afer getting black and orange flag; (17)KUB retires (oil leak in gearbox); (20)ALG retires (gearbox); (53)BUE pits

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