Sebastian Vettel is a dead cert for the world championship.
Despite there still being six races to go the Red Bull driver has a realistic shot at bagging the title this weekend.
A win for Vettel with Lewis Hamilton second and Fernando Alonso no better than fourth is just one of the ways Vettel can clinch the crown in Singapore.
Heading into the 14th round of 19, Vettel has 284 points to Alonso’s 172.
Jenson Button and Mark Webber are tied on 167 and Hamilton has 158.
With eight wins and four second places already, Vettel cannot be beaten in a tie on points with any other driver.
To win the title this weekend Vettel needs to finish on the podium – something he’s done in all bar one of the 13 races so far. Here’s where he needs the others to finish if he does:
If Vettel wins the race
He will be champion if:
- Alonso finishes fourth or lower
- Button and Webber finish third or lower
- Hamilton cannot score enough points to stop Vettel being champion in this scenario
If Vettel finishes second
He will be champion if:
- Alonso finishes eighth or lower
- Button and Webber finish fifth or lower
- Hamilton doesn’t win
If Vettel finishes third
He will be champion if:
- Alonso finishes ninth or lower
- Button and Webber finish seventh or lower
- Hamilton finishes fourth or lower
If the championship is clinched this weekend it will be one of the earliest conclusion to the drivers’ title battle. See here for more:
Red Bull are well ahead in the constructors championship but they can’t win the title this weekend.
Here are the points standings and interactive charts for all the teams and drivers so far this year:
2011 Singapore Grand Prix
Image © Red Bull/Getty images
OEL F1 (@oel-f1)
22nd September 2011, 12:21
Unless Alonso fails to reach the podium for the first time in Singapore, he will remain in the title “fight” even if Vettel wins. I think Vettel will have to wait.
Fixy (@)
22nd September 2011, 15:19
I think it’s unlikely the drivers will find themselves exactly in the positions listed. If one, say Alonso, had a problem, and was lower than 4th, Webber and/or Button could well be 2nd/3rd, and Vettel would not win the title.
vix_vettel (@vix_vettel)
22nd September 2011, 12:22
although i am a massive sebastian vettel fan and hope he does win the title in singapore, i’m not fully convinced he will. if he wins then the scenario isnt that hard to achieve but if he doesnt i cant see any of his 3 main rivals (not including hamilton) finishing low enough to hand him the title. one thing i can be sure of is he wont give up his fight and if he has the chance to take the title we know he will grab it with both hands :)
Mike (@mike)
23rd September 2011, 4:49
But with his form the last few races it would be hard to bet against him winning this one as well…
BasCB (@bascb)
22nd September 2011, 12:24
I have a feeling Vettel might either clinch it in the same way he did it in Abu Dhabi last time: talking his chances down all weekend, then taking pole and never looking back, while McLaren fail to deliver more then second best and Ferrari cocks up the pitstops.
Or he might be having a round of playing with the others, make them have false hope of closing in and clinch it with a big advantage and a few more wins anyway. A bit like a cat enjoying the play with a mouse.
Klaas (@klaas)
22nd September 2011, 13:03
Hope Vettel wins the title in Singapore so we don’t get to read “How Vettel can clinch the title at Suzuka”.
OEL F1 (@oel-f1)
22nd September 2011, 13:08
You don’t have to read it if you don’t want to.
Klaas (@klaas)
22nd September 2011, 16:07
Thing is, these combinations have been posted here since Monza a lot of times, what’s the point writing about them again?
matt90 (@matt90)
22nd September 2011, 20:36
So that people can see them at a convenient time and place?
Mike (@mike)
23rd September 2011, 5:05
Not only have you explained yourself that it is popular. You have also pin pointed why an article is a good thing.
mantolwen (@mantolwen)
22nd September 2011, 13:28
If you don’t like words so much, I’ve made a table on my blog http://openwheelblog.wordpress.com/2011/09/22/how-to-stay-in-championship-contention/ here. It shows all the positions where the drivers need to finish compared to Vettel.
Hamilton’s situation is quite interesting, needing to finish ahead of Vettel and at least finishing in the points. As for Alonso, I think he will hold off the celebrations at least until Japan.
ScuderiaVincero (@scuderiavincero)
22nd September 2011, 13:30
It’s already got my heart pumping. I saw him take his second victory at Sepang, so it’s unbelievable that he could clinch his second championship so close by :)
AndrewTanner (@andrewtanner)
22nd September 2011, 13:50
Wow. I didn’t think that Vettel winning would mean such an eventuality is plausible. I expected his competitors would have to finish much lower. Sure as hell i’ll have this page open on my phone while watching the race.
Thanks for doing the maths, Keith.
JCost (@jcost)
22nd September 2011, 14:26
Let’s finish this weekend Seb. Keith we need 2012 calendar, pre-season included. We gotta move on, this one is over. My last wish for 2011 is seeing Michael Schumacher win a race, quite a long shot but who cares? I’ve been in denial for months thinking that Alonso, Hamilton, Button and Webber could make it more interesting…
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine)
22nd September 2011, 14:42
It’s been up for ages:
2012 F1 calendar
But I don’t buy into the ‘the season is over when the championship is won’ stuff. Some of the best races I’ve ever seen came after the title was decided – Suzuka ’05 for example.
MW (@)
22nd September 2011, 15:00
Ya I definitely agree.. I can’t see my excitement on F1 weekends being diminished at all by the end of the WDC battle.
Also, I predict that Alonso will be the only one in the hunt to beat Vettel after this weekend..
Klaas (@klaas)
22nd September 2011, 16:23
Yeah, especially now that Ferrari turned their focus on the 2012 car… I predict a Vettel-pole Vettel-win until the end…
JCost (@jcost)
23rd September 2011, 7:35
So pre-season starts 10-11 weeks before GP#1?
Sure we will have great races, but it’s way more fun when their fighting for the bigger prize.
vjanik
22nd September 2011, 14:59
if Hamilton wins the next five races, and Vettel doesn’t score a single point, Hamilton will still be a point behind Vettel going to Brazil. wow.
Eggry (@eggry)
22nd September 2011, 15:23
so he’s already mathematically out.
vjanik
22nd September 2011, 15:48
well mathematically he can still win the championship.
if the above scenario happens, then they will have a showdown in Brazil for the championship. but as I said, they would have to kidnap Vettel to prevent him from scoring any points in the remainder of the season, and Hamilton would have to win everything.
JCost (@jcost)
23rd September 2011, 7:28
He should also to kidnap Button and Alonso in order to winn all the races :)
RumFRESH (@rumfresh)
22nd September 2011, 16:45
Keeping Alonso off the podium won’t be easy.
HounslowBusGarage (@hounslowbusgarage)
22nd September 2011, 17:04
If Liuzzi is going to play skittles again, maybe he could aim for Vettel :)
Alfie not logged in
22nd September 2011, 17:42
First and last time the championship is won in Singapore..
Steven (@modtl)
22nd September 2011, 18:00
I just hope when Vettel wins the championship he doesn’t win the race, so we can avoid the finger :)
@HoHum (@hohum)
22nd September 2011, 18:12
There will be no way we will avoid the finger, short of amputation that is.
KaIIe (@kaiie)
22nd September 2011, 21:01
Maybe there’ll be TWO fingers when he wins his second title.
@HoHum (@hohum)
22nd September 2011, 18:08
Only the first scenario looks realistic, it must be about time for Hamilton to finish second.
Dave_F1
22nd September 2011, 21:33
even if Vettel doesn’t win the title this weekend & even if he fails to finish I can’t see anyone beating him to the championship anyway.
even if vettel is injured & unable to race in the final races the only way anyone could beat him would be if 1 of the contenders wins every race & that isn’t going to happen.
its more a matter of ‘when’ he will win the title rather than ‘if’!
wasiF1 (@wasif1)
23rd September 2011, 2:37
Singapore no good for WC party,lets wait for the classic place,Japan.
Seb (@seb)
23rd September 2011, 10:01
I hope he does win the title this weekend. We all know he’s going to be champion this year, so rather than prolong the inevitable, I’d rather the championship is just decided, and then we can concentrate on enjoying the actual on-track action for the last few GPs of the year, when they’ll all just be racing for individual race wins.
Atticus (@atticus-2)
23rd September 2011, 10:42
Obviously there is a higher chance of him not getting the championship nailed in Singapore, so it’s quite likely that – despite not being the final round anymore – it’s Suzuka where the championship will be won – yet another time.
Strange, Suzuka has this appeal. Interlagos and the Hungaroring is similar to it.
Rib khalifa (@)
25th September 2011, 7:29
If he doesn’t win, who else? He is racing alone while others are fighting for positions,racing wheel to wheel.Give JB,FA,LH,NR thesame car and they’ll perform better than vettel.i’m sick of him winning most of the races this season.i labelled this season a ‘ONE MAN CHAMPIONSHIP’
Ensest Hikayeler
4th December 2011, 20:10
Great post, i need this issue, you explain very clearly