At best, Lewis Hamilton will start the German Grand Prix from 15th on the grid.
But depending on the extent of the repairs Mercedes deem necessary after his crash, including replacing the failed brake disc that caused it, he may end up having to start from the pit lane.
That would turn the already very difficult task of catching his pole sitting team mate and championship leader Nico Rosberg into a near-impossible one. But there are two things which could work in his favour.
The start
As we’ve noted several times here this year, the Williams drivers are the ones to watch on lap one. Valtteri Bottas has made up 13 places at the start this year, Felipe Massa 12, and they are lined up right behind Rosberg at the start.
If Hamilton’s got any hope of catching his team mate, seeing either or both of those Williams cars get ahead would be a big help. Massa may prove just as big a threat as Bottas from third on the grid – he took the lead from there four years ago while pole sitter Sebastian Vettel was preoccupied covering off an attack from second-placed Fernando Alonso.
The run to the first corner is short – 260 metres – and the stewards generally turn a blind eye to drivers abusing the wide tarmac run-off area at the exit. From there the cars are soon on the long run towards the Spitzkehre – and as Austria showed Williams have the straight-line speed to put Mercedes under pressure when they start within range.
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Strategy
At the beginning of the weekend it looked as though we might see out first wet race of the year – and the first rain-hit race on the Hockenheimring since ins 2002 redesign. However the chances of that are fading at the moment.
This is bad news for Hamilton, who would have welcomed the added variable of wet conditions. The prospect of having to start a dry race from the pit lane is about as bad as it could get for him.
However conditions are expected to cloud over at the track, reducing the air temperature by around five degrees. It will likely have a much greater effect on track temperatures, which hit a year-record high of 58C during practice.
It’s still going to be a warm race, though not one which would place as severe demands on Pirelli’s aggressive choice of soft and super-soft tyres as it might have done.
“I reckon in the race we will suffer more because of tyre degradation,” said Fernando Alonso, who will line up seventh on the grid. “With such high temperatures, the rear tyres slide a lot and it will be really important to choose the right number of stops to make.”
Alonso doubts he has a car to rival the Mercedes and Williams, but he may be able to take the fight to the Red Bulls ahead of him and Kevin Magnussen, who put his McLaren an excellent fourth on the grid.
The top ten qualifiers as usual all used the softest tyres in Q2 – in this case the super-soft – so that’s what they will start on. Rosberg used an extra set of super-softs during Q1 – something which could have cost him had he expected to face a straight fight with his team mate at the front, which now looked very unlikely.
Just about the only saving grace for Hamilton is that he has plenty of fresh tyres for tomorrow’s race. Even so, it looks like being a damage limitation exercise for him.
Qualifying times in full
Driver | Car | Q1 | Q2 (vs Q1) | Q3 (vs Q2) | |
1 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes | 1’17.631 | 1’17.109 (-0.522) | 1’16.540 (-0.569) |
2 | Valtteri Bottas | Williams | 1’18.215 | 1’17.353 (-0.862) | 1’16.759 (-0.594) |
3 | Felipe Massa | Williams | 1’18.381 | 1’17.370 (-1.011) | 1’17.078 (-0.292) |
4 | Kevin Magnussen | McLaren | 1’18.260 | 1’17.788 (-0.472) | 1’17.214 (-0.574) |
5 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | 1’18.117 | 1’17.855 (-0.262) | 1’17.273 (-0.582) |
6 | Sebastian Vettel | Red Bull | 1’18.194 | 1’17.646 (-0.548) | 1’17.577 (-0.069) |
7 | Fernando Alonso | Ferrari | 1’18.389 | 1’17.866 (-0.523) | 1’17.649 (-0.217) |
8 | Daniil Kvyat | Toro Rosso | 1’18.530 | 1’18.103 (-0.427) | 1’17.965 (-0.138) |
9 | Nico Hulkenberg | Force India | 1’18.927 | 1’18.017 (-0.910) | 1’18.014 (-0.003) |
10 | Sergio Perez | Force India | 1’18.916 | 1’18.161 (-0.755) | 1’18.035 (-0.126) |
11 | Jenson Button | McLaren | 1’18.425 | 1’18.193 (-0.232) | |
12 | Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | 1’18.534 | 1’18.273 (-0.261) | |
13 | Jean-Eric Vergne | Toro Rosso | 1’18.496 | 1’18.285 (-0.211) | |
14 | Esteban Gutierrez | Sauber | 1’18.739 | 1’18.787 (+0.048) | |
15 | Romain Grosjean | Lotus | 1’18.894 | 1’18.983 (+0.089) | |
16 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 1’18.683 | ||
17 | Adrian Sutil | Sauber | 1’19.142 | ||
18 | Jules Bianchi | Marussia | 1’19.676 | ||
19 | Pastor Maldonado | Lotus | 1’20.195 | ||
20 | Kamui Kobayashi | Caterham | 1’20.408 | ||
21 | Max Chilton | Marussia | 1’20.489 | ||
22 | Marcus Ericsson | Caterham |
Sector times
Driver | Sector 1 | Sector 2 | Sector 3 |
---|---|---|---|
Nico Rosberg | 16.680 (1) | 35.755 (2) | 24.100 (1) |
Valtteri Bottas | 16.837 (3) | 35.545 (1) | 24.377 (5) |
Felipe Massa | 16.843 (4) | 35.812 (3) | 24.423 (6) |
Kevin Magnussen | 16.931 (7) | 36.035 (4) | 24.248 (2) |
Daniel Ricciardo | 16.813 (2) | 36.149 (5) | 24.311 (4) |
Sebastian Vettel | 16.907 (5) | 36.311 (10) | 24.248 (2) |
Fernando Alonso | 16.927 (6) | 36.260 (8) | 24.462 (7) |
Daniil Kvyat | 16.973 (8) | 36.405 (13) | 24.576 (8) |
Nico Hulkenberg | 16.988 (9) | 36.235 (7) | 24.776 (11) |
Sergio Perez | 17.062 (12) | 36.190 (6) | 24.782 (12) |
Jenson Button | 16.996 (10) | 36.322 (11) | 24.735 (10) |
Kimi Raikkonen | 17.049 (11) | 36.486 (14) | 24.671 (9) |
Jean-Eric Vergne | 17.125 (14) | 36.373 (12) | 24.787 (13) |
Esteban Gutierrez | 17.222 (16) | 36.576 (15) | 24.864 (14) |
Romain Grosjean | 17.204 (15) | 36.581 (16) | 24.964 (16) |
Lewis Hamilton | 17.072 (13) | 36.290 (9) | 24.975 (17) |
Adrian Sutil | 17.294 (18) | 36.709 (17) | 25.058 (18) |
Jules Bianchi | 17.473 (19) | 36.865 (18) | 25.338 (19) |
Pastor Maldonado | 17.243 (17) | 37.272 (21) | 24.891 (15) |
Kamui Kobayashi | 17.613 (20) | 37.266 (20) | 25.529 (20) |
Max Chilton | 17.621 (21) | 37.142 (19) | 25.680 (21) |
Marcus Ericsson |
Speed trap
Pos | Driver | Car | Engine | Speed (kph/mph) | Gap |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes | Mercedes | 332.5 (206.6) | |
2 | Valtteri Bottas | Williams | Mercedes | 331.5 (206.0) | -1.0 |
3 | Felipe Massa | Williams | Mercedes | 330.6 (205.4) | -1.9 |
4 | Sergio Perez | Force India | Mercedes | 328.9 (204.4) | -3.6 |
5 | Jean-Eric Vergne | Toro Rosso | Renault | 326.2 (202.7) | -6.3 |
6 | Nico Hulkenberg | Force India | Mercedes | 325.7 (202.4) | -6.8 |
7 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | Mercedes | 324.7 (201.8) | -7.8 |
8 | Daniil Kvyat | Toro Rosso | Renault | 324.7 (201.8) | -7.8 |
9 | Jenson Button | McLaren | Mercedes | 322.7 (200.5) | -9.8 |
10 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | Renault | 322.3 (200.3) | -10.2 |
11 | Kevin Magnussen | McLaren | Mercedes | 322.2 (200.2) | -10.3 |
12 | Max Chilton | Marussia | Ferrari | 321.9 (200.0) | -10.6 |
13 | Jules Bianchi | Marussia | Ferrari | 321.8 (200.0) | -10.7 |
14 | Romain Grosjean | Lotus | Renault | 321.6 (199.8) | -10.9 |
15 | Fernando Alonso | Ferrari | Ferrari | 320.1 (198.9) | -12.4 |
16 | Adrian Sutil | Sauber | Ferrari | 320.0 (198.8) | -12.5 |
17 | Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | Ferrari | 319.9 (198.8) | -12.6 |
18 | Esteban Gutierrez | Sauber | Ferrari | 319.9 (198.8) | -12.6 |
19 | Sebastian Vettel | Red Bull | Renault | 319.2 (198.3) | -13.3 |
20 | Pastor Maldonado | Lotus | Renault | 318.9 (198.2) | -13.6 |
21 | Kamui Kobayashi | Caterham | Renault | 316.5 (196.7) | -16.0 |
Over to you
How do you expect the race to unfold? How far apart will the Mercedes drivers be at the chequered flag?
Share your views on the German Grand Prix in the comments.
2014 German Grand Prix
- Mercedes explain cause of Hamilton’s brake failure
- Three-in-a-row for Bottas in Driver of the Weekend
- Hockenheim continues 2014’s run of top races
- 2014 German GP Predictions Championship results
- 2014 German Grand Prix team radio transcript
Images © Williams/LAT, Ferrari/Ercole Colombo
Slava (@)
19th July 2014, 19:42
I don’t think that Hamilton needs rain to capitalize from it.
He only needs to survive in the first lap and then it will be extremely easy to overtake each and every rival between him and his main target. If Lewis will be able to produce the same swift start as it was in Austria, than he will need up to 10 laps to become 2nd. In the next 57 laps he will have a ton of time to reach and overtake Rosberg. Moreover, the Briton has an advantage of unused tyres.
It will be interesting to watch his race. There is no need to cry and be angry as Hamilton fans suggest:-)
Erivaldo moreira (@erivaldonin)
19th July 2014, 19:52
I fully agree
D (@f190)
19th July 2014, 20:04
You really expect him to catch Rosberg while passing all those cars ? I’m sorry but there’s no way ! He will be at least 20-30 seconds down by the time he’s got through all those. Even if he does do it in 10 laps, it’s not crazy to think Rosberg can lap 2-3 seconds a lap faster in clear air. Usually after one lap 10th place is at least 10 seconds behind. The gap will surely be too big to have a race with Rosberg unless he gets a safety car or something to help him.
hunocsi (@hunocsi)
19th July 2014, 20:01
Not that easy if he starts from the pitlane.
Atticus (@atticus-2)
19th July 2014, 20:05
Well, I agree that he can probably catch up to 2nd, but without an SC Rosberg will build enough of a gap by that time for him to secure victory.
rm
19th July 2014, 19:53
It can be done. Vettel did that pit lane to podium drive in Abu Dhabi in 2012, in a car much less dominant than this years Mercedes. So I would not be at all shocked to see LH on the podium tomorrow.
Speaking of Vettel, that’s quite a large discrepancy in top speed between him and Ricciardo. I guess he didn’t get the new and improved fuel?
Stuart Brookes (@ztubert)
19th July 2014, 20:14
Or, he is carrying more downforce.
rm
19th July 2014, 20:18
No evidence of that based on the sector times.
ResultantAsteroid
19th July 2014, 20:38
Yes, same as yesterday. Yesterday I thought maybe he’s preserving his engine (since he’s on the 4th ICE and 4th TC as well), but it doesnot make sense to do it during qualifying.
Mike Dee (@mike-dee)
19th July 2014, 23:03
Rocky told him after his first run in Q3 that the energy management was not optimal and that they would change it for the second run. This could have affected his top speed (and overall speed) in the first run. Since his second run was slower for some reason (haven’t seen the lap), the first run is the one reflected in the numbers above.
Hairs (@hairs)
19th July 2014, 19:59
Another race where Jenson is out in Q2 while his teammate is at the front. McLaren under Ron really won’t be as tolerant of that sort of performance as Whitmarsh was.
He’s racing well, and getting McLaren points where they really don’t deserve them. But I think if there was another driver available who they thought was front row material, Jenson would be gone already…
Ady (@ady)
19th July 2014, 20:52
@hairs I’m not so sure, I thought the reason why they took the option of a longer contract last time round was to sweeten the deal in the negotiations with Honda. But maybe now the deal is done, there is nothing binding them to Jenson.
Dr jones
19th July 2014, 23:01
Jensens style is very much poor qualifying whilst very good at strategy in the race.In the British Grand Prix he qualified well and finished well.To be fair he has always set the car up for race pace which will get the points. Other teams set the car up for fast single lap for qualifying and loose position in the race. Both Kimi,Lewis and Jensen are all out of their true potential positions but the wet and race pace will even them out by lap 38.
Hairs (@hairs)
20th July 2014, 0:47
@ady I’m still not sure the deal with Honda was worth doing, even for the benefit of “factory team” status.
Ady (@ady)
20th July 2014, 9:22
@hairs, we can see the advantages of a tightly integrated works team with Mercedes this year. As Honda are not constrained by the engine development rules they can take the information that McLaren have gathered this year and develop further.
However it still depends if they can build a decent car. With all the staff changes that have been happening recently it is unlikely they will have one for 2015, but maybe they can find their feet and pick themselves up the following year.
Bullfrog (@bullfrog)
19th July 2014, 20:01
We saw how quickly Alonso and Bottas moved up through the field during their amazing first stints at Silverstone, and theoretically Hamilton’s in a more competitive car. And this track’s as wide as a wide thing, so working his way up to second should be a lot of fun for him, and for us the viewers. Even if it’s from the pit lane it shouldn’t take too long.
But I think Lewis will need Bernd Maylander to be his friend to have any chance of catching Rosberg.
IDR (@idr)
19th July 2014, 20:01
Look what I’ve found in my account of Daylimotion. I’ve made it 6 years ago, but still perfectly valid for this site!
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xaun7e_f1-fanatic_auto
fractal (@fractal)
19th July 2014, 20:17
i remember 5 yrs back i googled out for sites with hardcore f1 fans, discussion to keep in touch with f1 madness & i got up here; since then i never lost in touch during both off & in season.. its a really blessing to have this platform .. thanks keith.. thanks all d rest 2.. for the overall experience..
tino852 (@tino852)
19th July 2014, 20:01
Hamilton is starting from pitlane.
F1 Noob (@noob)
19th July 2014, 20:27
@tino852 is it confirmed??
D (@f190)
19th July 2014, 20:47
Not at this point.
tino852 (@tino852)
19th July 2014, 21:01
Autosport says he has to revert to carbon industries brakes and this requires a pitlane start.
D (@f190)
19th July 2014, 22:35
No. It says he could be forced to if he switches. He will probably switch, but Mercedes will argue its on safety grounds, as it is and hope he can still start 15th. I’m not sure which way it will go, but nothing’s confirmed yet.
F1 Noob (@noob)
19th July 2014, 20:27
Love the ending of this Mercedes commercial, do watch it…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MZCdY3hZN3I
tino852 (@tino852)
19th July 2014, 21:03
Nico is in the driving seat of the championship too.
pastaman (@)
20th July 2014, 13:48
I love how they used the sound of V8 engines instead of this year’s…
AdrianMorse (@adrianmorse)
19th July 2014, 20:48
I missed qualifying today, so it was with some apprehension (given Hamilton’s recent Saturday troubles) that I ‘fired up’ F1Fanatic during a quick dinner tonight. A headline along the lines of “Rosberg on pole as Hamilton crashes out” did in fact cross my mind, though a pitlane start exceeded even my worst fears.
I’d like to believe those who say he’ll be second in no-time, but I think it’s going to be a bit more difficult than that. If the Williams drivers have a normal race, they will be difficult to catch (they seem to be closer to their Austria form than their Silverstone form, which was still good of course). It should make for an interesting race, of course, but for the championship it looks like Rosberg will cruise to victory with his engine turned down, while Hamilton has to take risks and tax the engine to make it into the top 5.
Paul
19th July 2014, 22:26
Given Mercedes’ superiority, I think it’s perfectly possible for LH to finish on the podium, he has to aim for that, not winning the race.