The first two qualifying sessions of the year were overshadowed by the row over elimination qualifying. Yesterday the unpopular format was put back in its box and Saturday will see the return of the familiar system used until the end of last season.
A quirk of the rules means a valuable strategic benefit can be gained by narrowly missing the cut-off point for Q3. The potential advantage is so great that Grosjean began celebrating in Bahrain when Nico Hulkenberg beat his qualifying time in Q2.
Since 2014, drivers who reach Q3 have to start the race on the tyres they used in Q2. The remaining drivers have a free choice, and for obvious reasons have almost always chosen to start the race on a fresh set of tyres. This gives them more grip immediately at the start of the race and means they can run a longer first stint.
The benefit of being able to start on newer tyres has increased this year. This is because of new tyre rules which have resulted in softer compounds being allocated.
Bahrain Grand Prix
Positions gained or lost over the course of the race:
| Grid | Position gain |
|---|---|
| 6th | -3 |
| 7th | -1 |
| 8th | -7 |
| 9th | +4 |
| 10th | +4 |
Most drivers started the opening races on super-soft tyres. Therefore the drivers who reached Q3 and have to start the race on used tyre are at a greater disadvantage, as the three-lap they did on the rubber in Q2 took away a greater proportion of the tyre’s life.
That gives a desirable strategic advantage to the drivers closest behind them at the start on new tyres. And it explain’s Grosjean’s perverse delight at being out-qualified by Hulkenberg in Bahrain.
This was the first race of the year where race strategies played out as intended, without the interference of a mid-race interruption. When the chequered flag fell, the drivers from the lower reaches of Q3 had all lost places, and those from the front of the Q2 pack had moved up (see table).
“In Bahrain we were very happy not to be in Q3,” confirmed Haas team principal Guenther Steiner, because it allowed us to start the race on a brand new set of tyres.”
“With brand new tyres, you see a lot more grip on the start. Both drivers took that to their advantage and had very good starts.”
The Shanghai International Circuit is a classic example of a ‘front limited’ track. The front-left tyre in particular takes a pounding around the long first corner and again at turn 13.
Mercedes therefore expect very short opening stints for the drivers on used rubber.
“It’s the first time we’ll see the super soft compound used at this track, thanks to the new regulations,” explained Mercedes’ executive director for technical Paddy Lowe. “That will likely create a more extreme example of what we saw in Bahrain, where the best qualifying tyre is unlikely to be a great race tyre.”
“Every team is bound to want to qualify on the super soft – but if it grains in the race, we could see cars stopping in the first five laps.”
One of the objections to elimination qualifying was the lack of running at the end of each phase of qualifying. But don’t be surprised if we see a quiet conclusion to Q2 again, if for somewhat different reasons: some who don’t make the cut for Q3 might not want to get there.
NB. In Australia and Bahrain there were eight drivers in Q3. From China this will revert to ten as per last year’s rules.
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IJW (@)
12th April 2016, 13:18
I wonder if Mercedes will risk trying to get into Q3 using the Softs only in Q2. Would it be worth starting on used Softs for the race, knowing that even if cars behind them pass them at the start, they can still go longer in the race in the first stint whilst the cars that passed them and pitted will end up rejoining in lots of traffic.
Sonics (@sonicslv)
12th April 2016, 13:38
@ijw1 I don’t think it’s a viable strategy, especially more so with Mercedes advantage over other (except Ferrari maybe). Mercedes can be expected to have at least 1 pit stop gap to 10th driver with super soft so at the worst case when they actually have to stop sooner, they “only” stuck in 11th position with all drivers ahead of them is either will stop immediately or their tires are too old anyway to be able to defend.
David Not Coulthard (@davidnotcoulthard)
12th April 2016, 13:41
@ijw1 Looking at how Vetel won many of the races he won in 2010-2013….running away and hiding with options at the start of the race was probably a more viable strategy, and I guess whatever made that work is still a factor today.
ColdFly F1 (@)
12th April 2016, 13:41
Or ‘abuse’ the SS less in Q2 targetting P9/10 in Q2. @ijw1
But anyway the fact that now the top 10 goes to Q3 makes the ‘Grosjean strategy’ less interesting.
Nick Wyatt (@nickwyatt)
12th April 2016, 13:20
Intriguing. So if all the drivers who made it into Q2 (including those who go on to Q3) had to start the race on the tyres they used in Q2 . . . would that solve the problem?
petebaldwin (@)
12th April 2016, 13:34
@nickwyatt – Or…. let them pick whatever tyres they want to race with out of their allocation? This is just another attempt to artificially spice things up by giving the teams further back an advantage rather than addressing the root of the problem.
knoxploration
12th April 2016, 17:49
Amen. Yet another rule that’s no more than a band-aid which does nothing to fix the real problem.
Fudge Ahmed (@)
12th April 2016, 13:30
I could swear most pre race Pirelli predictions for the first stop are often doubled recently.
petebaldwin (@)
12th April 2016, 13:48
I’ve noticed that… I wonder if it’s protecting themselves – ie if the tyres can last 10 laps, they’ll say 5 so that if a team runs for longer and the tyres explode, it’s not Pirelli’s fault?
ColdFly F1 (@)
12th April 2016, 13:47
There is one huge mitigating factor in this.
In 2016 the midfield is huge; probably all teams bar MER/SF & MTR/SAU.
Thus each driver in Q2 potentially could end up on spot 5-10.
Tyler (@tdog)
12th April 2016, 21:55
Or, you could theoretically aim for P11, and end up in P16.
I think in fact we will see very similar strategies to last year, new tyre rules notwithstanding.
Jake Wahome
13th April 2016, 17:44
What the heck is MTR?
David (@wushumr2)
14th April 2016, 0:32
MRT.
Girts (@girts)
12th April 2016, 14:07
Let me quote @andae23: ‘The discussion now is that Hulkenberg went “too fast”. How completely broken does that sound?’
This is probably not a big issue but when drivers try not to be too fast in a qualifying session because they can start from the first row on a reverse grid or simply gain strategic advantage that way, then it always sounds wrong. Shouldn’t qualifying always be flat out?
andae23 (@andae23)
12th April 2016, 15:14
@girts yeah, I really don’t understand why the ‘top 8 starts on Q2 tyres’ rule still exists, it adds nothing.
markp
12th April 2016, 14:08
Just let all teams start on whatever tyres they want so qualifying means every team is trying to do the fastest laps they can and not playing with a quirk in the rules. This does have the danger of teams compromising their quali to get a better race strategy but then again it is nothing new as when they used to qualify with race fuel the same could be said. I am on the fence with this lets just see how it pans out. If teams start aiming for P11 from now on and end up winning races because of it leading to all teams attempting this and quali turns to a farce then it can be looked at, I think this will be much ado about nothing.
montreal95 (@montreal95)
12th April 2016, 14:25
@keithcollantine While I see your point I believe it will be far less beneficial to miss Q3 when there are 10 places there. Big difference between P9 and P11(at best). So it might be a little quieter Q2 compared to last year because of the 3 available compounds and the strategic variability they bring, but not significantly so
Corey
12th April 2016, 15:34
Is Bahrain really a good example though? Part of where the teams finished had more to do with what the opening lap chaos.
6th Bottas: Crashed into Hamilton on Lap 1. served a drive-thru penalty.
7th Massa: Moved up to 3rd on Lap 1, dropped to 8th due to handling issues.
8th Hulkenberg: Pitted on lap 1 and ended up making 4 pit stops, most of any team in the race.
9th Grosjean: Was in 6th after Turn 1, ran an aggressive strategy of SS, SS, SS, S. (Mentioned on NBCSports that his third SS’s were his used Q2 set.)
10th Verstappen: Clean race, benefitted from other misfortunes.
All the cars that finished ahead of Grosjean and Verstappen, started ahead of them as well. The 4th place they made up was Vettel, who never saw the lights.
Another note, now that Q3 will involve 10 cars again,
Corey
12th April 2016, 16:02
Another note, now that Q3 will involve 10 cars again, we may start seeing track position as being more important than fresh tires.
MattDS
13th April 2016, 10:50
Q3 will not involve 10 cars again. Will remain at 8. The number of cars advancing is dependant on the total number of participants, not on the qualifying system itself.
Man United_Vettel (@siegfreyco)
12th April 2016, 16:10
The difference is. In this format you won’t be sure if you start from 11 or up to 16 which is a huge difference and if you don’t run at the end of the session, you might wound up at 16
Maddme
12th April 2016, 16:36
I think attempts in Q2 with a harder compound tyre would be a viable option. They will have a chance to run the soft tyre, pit and go out again with the supersonic should the need arise…
Tiomkin
12th April 2016, 18:16
For those drivers that don’t want to go out in Q2, if they fail to set a time near their Q1 time then give them a 10 place grid penalty. That way everyone would set a time. Drivers are there to race those that want to sit in the pit will be punished. Everyone wins.
jdd
12th April 2016, 18:32
No time set, just remove the fastest time of them. No time set in Q3 could then mean they could drop to the bottom of Q2 and grid place.
jdd
12th April 2016, 18:30
Wish they would have gone to the early 1990’s style. Qualifying tiers, let them try to beat the one in front of them by racing.
To make sure that there are cars on the track even when it rains, one timed lap must be done every 15 minutes and be within 107% of the fastest time in that 15 minutes.
F1 in Figures (@f1infigures)
12th April 2016, 20:18
Last year the medium tires were the unwanted tire, so maybe a 3-stopper with one stint on supersofts and three on softs is still faster than a 2-stopper with two stints on softs and one on mediums. But if the supersoft tire is really horrible in the race, what is then the probability of everyone using softs in Q2? Or will the midfield teams use the supersofts to reach Q3 and gain track position to compensate for their tire disadvantage? We may see some ingenious qualifying strategies.
Keith Campbell (@keithedin)
12th April 2016, 20:24
At the risk of suggestion yet another rule tweak, I think they should consider removing the rule forcing drivers who make Q3 to use their Q2 tyre at the start of the race. I know the point was to penalise the top drivers and help those lower placed to catch up but it rarely makes much difference, only when a faster driver qualifies out of position (ironically).
Removing this rule would prevent situations like Grosjean’s where he actually wanted to be knocked out. The rules should never incentivise getting a worse result than you can because it can then be manipulated by the teams. Also, with this year’s revised tyre rules I think giving the Q3 runners other strategy options would improve the racing at the front of the field (and let’s face it, this is more interesting than the battles for 8th-12th).
TheF1Engineer (@thef1engineer)
12th April 2016, 20:44
SEPARATE the “qualifying tyres” and the “race tyres”!
This, “I’m saving a set of tyres for the race” mindset needs to end.
Give all cars 4 sets of the ultra-soft compound “qualifying tyres” each. 40-45mins session. No knock-outs. No eliminations. All sets handed back at the end. 22 cars flat-out, 88 hot-laps of qualifying on a Saturday afternoon. Perfect :).
Come the race, or more specifically, the “race tyres,” the top 5 start on the set of ultra-soft quali tyres they set their fastest time with, the bottom 5 get free tyre choice, the midfield have somewhere inbetween.
NewVerstappenFan (@jureo)
13th April 2016, 22:16
Sounds like a plan. Are you an actual or armchair f1engineer. If actual, do send your boss a suggestion, to forward to the strategy group..
Seems perfect really.. No wonder its not in the rules.
Bullfrog (@bullfrog)
13th April 2016, 9:21
Missed opportunity to improve the rules and move forward, by scrapping the start-on-qualifying-tyres rule, lost in all the excitement about getting 2015 qualifying back.
But the teams around 10th place – Force India, Haas, Toro Rosso etc – benefit from the stupid rule, so they’d never vote against it.
Maybe the Strategy Group would, though…
Mike Dee (@mike-dee)
13th April 2016, 10:36
Isn’t the additional issue that those not in Q3 have an additional tyre – the Q3 qualifying tyre? If I recall correctly, everybody gets this extra set of tyres, but only those in Q3 need to hand it back, and the other ones could use it in the race.
But I may well recall incorrectly, especially with those new rules…
Scalextric (@scalextric)
13th April 2016, 13:23
So a couple of factors to counter this possibility. As pointed out, there are now 10 cars in Q3, so the optimal position for tyre choice is now P11. A 4 place improvement from there due to tyre choice doesn’t get too far up the points chart, in contrast to Grosjean’s P9 to P5 in Bahrain. It does counter the possibility of slipping down the points chart from a potential P8 to P11 I guess, if one is stuck with Q3 tyres, but the two cars behind P8 on the grid would be in a similar situation.
Secondly, specifically for Shanghai, it may well rain during quali. Sometimes that makes quali very quiet and slow, sometimes it makes the end of a session very active as the track dries.
Weather forecast at netweather.tv: http://bit.ly/1dFIMT0
NewVerstappenFan (@jureo)
13th April 2016, 17:04
While this is a slight issue… It does give us popular results. Grosjean’s 5th place was such. He was voted driver of the weekend based on the result.
Maybe… Hear me out… all but top 4 cars could have free tire choice? Maybe then Daniel Riciardo can hit up 1st place instead of 4th, like Grosjean did 5th instead of say 7th?
But like any anti-competitive rule, this one probably offends purists. Personally I would love to see Mercedes and Ferrari challenged by midfield. Potentially everyone who is more than 1s behind pole time, should get free tire choice. But then we’d have Ferrari sandbag quali? :D No easy solution, for sure F1 teams would “optimize” around it.
Jake Wahome
13th April 2016, 17:35
It can’t exactly be last year’s rules seeing last year there were 20 cars on the grid and this year there are 22 cars, no?