As was the case in Monaco, the Hungarian Grand Prix approaches with a sense of expectation that this could be one of those rare occasions when Mercedes have a fight on their hands.
The threat from Red Bull around the twisty Hungaroring is real: Daniel Ricciardo not only out-qualified the W07s in Monte-Carlo, he got through Q2 using a harder set of tyres.
There is also a significant change to this long-familiar venue as the entire course has been resurfaced for this weekend’s race. It remains to be seen exactly how this will affect the racing; the new Austrian track surface was abrasive, while Russia and Mexico City provided a more slippery surface for drivers to contend with. However the Formula Three and Formula V8 3.5 races which have already taken place on the circuit suggest an Austria-type scenario, with more grip, fewer bumps and higher surface temperatures.
Teams can expect to do more set-up-chasing than usual thanks to the new surface. Any drivers forced to miss a practice session are likely to be at more of a disadvantage than usual.
Mercedes
This is the only venue where Mercedes hasn’t won in two attempts during the V6 hybrid power era. Despite this, Lewis Hamilton is tied with Michael Schumacher as the most successful driver in the Hungarian Grand Prix, each having won it four times.
In contrast Nico Rosberg has never stood on the podium at this track. He arrives in Hungary looking to shore up a championship lead which has rapidly shrunk from 43 points to just one.
Mercedes’ power unit may not offer as great an advantage at this track as at other circuits but their raft of detailed aerodynamic updates at Silverstone and the healthy advantage they enjoyed in qualifying shows the W07 wants for little in terms of downforce.
Ferrari
The pace of development has been disappointingly slow from Ferrari this year and have started to lag behind Mercedes and Red Bull in terms of aerodynamic capability, shown by their comparatively poor form at Silverstone. This could be another difficult weekend for the team.
Reliability is also becoming a real concern. The team rearranged the configuration of the gearbox, turbo and cooling systems ahead of this season in an attempt to slim down the rear of the car to improve airflow over the diffuser, but this seems to have had a knock-on effect on reliability. Such an integral philosophy shift cannot be reversed, so the team are going to have to engineer other solutions to the problem.
However Kimi Raikkonen’s characteristically track-dependant form will probably play in their favour here: he has taken seven podium finishes in Hungary, more than any driver currently on the grid.
Williams
This could be a difficult weekend for Williams who so far this year have lacked their former sparkle on low-downforce tracks and struggled even more on slower circuits – like the Hungaroring. They look increasingly under threat from Force India.
Felipe Massa does not have good memories of this track. In 2008 his championship hopes took a severe hit when his engine failed while he led in the closing stages. If that seemed unlucky at the time, much worse awaited him 12 months later when he was fortunate to survive a serious crash during qualifying.
For Valtteri Bottas, however, this is the closest thing he has to a home race as the Hungaroring typically welcomes a large contingent of Finnish fans.
Red Bull
The demands of this race track are very similar to Monaco, rewarding those with good traction and excellent downforce, which should play into the hands of Red Bull. Daniel Ricciardo, but for a painful pit stop error, had the pace to beat Mercedes in Monaco and Red Bull are aiming high again this weekend.
Both drivers have excellent form at this circuit. Ricciardo took a fantastic victory in 2014, overtaking Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso in the last four laps of the race.
Max Verstappen brought his Toro Rosso home fourth in last year’s chaotic race, enduring Safety Cars, drive-through penalties and front wing damage along the way. Out-qualifying Ricciardo for the first time at Silverstone and picking off one of the Mercedes in the race will give him good reason to be confident for the weekend ahead.
Force India
Like Williams, Force India have generally endured a difficult time at the Hungaroring as the tight and twisty nature of the circuit places emphasis on grip and downforce rather than top speed. Both drivers will be keen to put memories of their spectacular crashes here last year behind them.
Vijay Mallya suggested that the design team had been working on the weakness in their chassis and hope they can improve their form on the low to medium speed corners that dominate this circuit. They have been closing in on Williams for fourth in the constructors standings and only trail them by 19 points.
Renault
Cyril Abiteboul, Renault’s managing director, has played down the team’s chances ahead of this weekend warning that “slow, twisty circuits don’t necessarily suit us well”. They are likely to struggle to progress beyond first qualifying and may come under attack from the Manor cars behind.
Jolyon Palmer won in 2013 in Hungary in GP2 and has enjoyed “some of my best races” around the circuit. He will need to put in a stellar performance this year as young gun Esteban Ocon, fresh from testing for Mercedes, will once again drive Palmer’s car in first practice one amid growing rumours he is being groomed for the place next year.
Toro Rosso
The excellent STR11 chassis should provide a stable platform and produce enough downforce around the Hungaroring circuit to be strong points contenders, as they have been in previous years finishing fourth in 2015.
Both drivers will aim to follow up from a double points finish at Silverstone. Since rejoining Toro Rosso, Daniil Kvyat has only scored two points compared to Carlos Sainz Jnr’s 22. The picture is somewhat skewed by reliability problems, but he needs to show he can compete with the Spaniard if he is to retain his seat for next season.
Sauber
Yesterday Sauber announced the longed-for news that new investment into the team has been secured to ensure they remain on the grid.
They introduced a new rear wing package for Marcus Ericsson at Silverstone and will be rolling the upgrade out to both cars in Hungary. The team will continue to evaluate the aerodynamic benefit this brings on track over the next two races to guide development direction for the rest of the season.
In 2015 the team had a strong run to tenth and eleventh place and have set themselves a similar target for this weekend, but given the competition this year and their lack of consistent development to date this may be a difficult feat to achieve.
McLaren
The team suffered a difficult weekend at Silverstone despite their upgraded power unit, but can expect to fare better around the twisty, comparatively low speed Hungarian track. Last year both drivers took points, led by Alonso in fifth position, which remains the best finish for the revived McLaren-Honda partnership.
Both drivers have won in Hungary. Jenson Button scored his maiden grand prix victory in 2006 in tricky weather conditions. This was the last time a Honda-powered car finished first in Formula One.
Manor
Emotions for everyone at Manor and many along the pit lane this weekend will be sombre and reflective as the F1 community marks the first anniversary of the death of former racer Jules Bianchi.
Manor struggled in the wet conditions at Silverstone with a lack of downforce and both rookie drivers Pascal Wehrlein and Rio Haryanto ended their respective races in the gravel trap after aquaplaning. The race in Hungary is likely to be held in hot dry conditions, but the aerodynamic weakness will still be a hindrance to them.
Haryanto’s ride had been under threat, but his management team announced just ahead of the British Grand Prix that the required funding to retain his seat until the end of 2016 has been secured.
Haas
They are also working hard to eradicate strategic errors and mechanical problems that still plague the fledgling team and will be hoping for their weekend in Hungary to progress more smoothly than in Britain.
The team has put their driver decision for 2017 on hold until after the European season has finished, giving Esteban Gutierrez a little more time to earn the right to retain his place next year. He has had plenty of mechanical failures, but needs to show he can match Grosjean’s pace.
2016 driver form
| Driver | Grid average | Race average | Race best | Race worst | Classified |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Hamilton | 5.10 | 2.56 | 1 | 7 | 9/10 |
| Nico Rosberg | 2.10 | 2.67 | 1 | 7 | 9/10 |
| Sebastian Vettel | 5.30 | 3.57 | 2 | 9 | 7/9 |
| Kimi Raikkonen | 4.90 | 3.75 | 2 | 6 | 8/10 |
| Felipe Massa | 9.40 | 9.22 | 5 | 20 | 9/10 |
| Valtteri Bottas | 7.40 | 8.00 | 3 | 14 | 10/10 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 3.90 | 5.20 | 2 | 11 | 10/10 |
| Daniil Kvyat | 12.60 | 9.50 | 3 | 15 | 6/10 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 9.10 | 10.75 | 6 | 19 | 8/10 |
| Sergio Perez | 10.00 | 9.50 | 3 | 17 | 10/10 |
| Kevin Magnussen | 17.80 | 13.67 | 7 | 17 | 9/10 |
| Jolyon Palmer | 17.80 | 14.33 | 11 | 22 | 6/9 |
| Max Verstappen | 8.40 | 5.13 | 1 | 10 | 8/10 |
| Carlos Sainz Jnr | 11.10 | 8.63 | 6 | 12 | 8/10 |
| Marcus Ericsson | 18.60 | 14.43 | 12 | 17 | 7/10 |
| Felipe Nasr | 18.90 | 15.22 | 12 | 20 | 9/10 |
| Fernando Alonso | 11.22 | 10.83 | 5 | 18 | 6/9 |
| Jenson Button | 12.60 | 10.50 | 6 | 14 | 8/10 |
| Pascal Wehrlein | 18.50 | 15.25 | 10 | 18 | 8/10 |
| Rio Haryanto | 19.80 | 17.57 | 15 | 21 | 7/10 |
| Romain Grosjean | 13.70 | 10.63 | 5 | 19 | 8/10 |
| Esteban Gutierrez | 14.70 | 13.63 | 11 | 17 | 8/10 |
| Stoffel Vandoorne | 12.00 | 10.00 | 10 | 10 | 1/1 |
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2016 Hungarian Grand Prix
- 2016 Hungarian Grand Prix team radio transcript
- Raikkonen’s rise to sixth earns Driver of the Weekend win
- Rosberg ‘surprised Hamilton is suddenly a fan of safety’
- Drivers to demand yellow flag clarification
- Few excited by Hungarian GP “chess match”
Philip (@philipgb)
21st July 2016, 13:03
It’s interesting looking at the stats of the top 6 in the drivers championship. Hamilton, Vettel and Verstappen all have a higher average finishing position than their team mates, but are behind on points.
TribalTalker (@tribaltalker)
21st July 2016, 17:28
@philipgb – If you look at the points scored since Verstappen joined Red Bull, it’s an interesting comparison:
MV – 12.83 Average points per race (to 2 decimal places)
DR – 10.67 Average ppr 2DP
However, DR is a more consistent scorer (although standard deviation isn’t worth much in such a small sample).
Since Verstappen traded up to RB, Rosberg has had a very bad time, averaging 11.33 points per race (against an average of 16.80 over the first 10 races). Hamilton has had a strong patch, averaging 18.33 (against only 16.70 over the first 10 races).
ColdFly F1 (@)
21st July 2016, 13:33
Shouldn’t Kvyat be 6/9 @keithcollantine, as he DNS in Melbourne.
It seems Vettel and Palmer had their DNS’s deducted.
Jelle van der Meer
21st July 2016, 15:21
@Keith – maybe good to swap Kvyat & Verstappen in above table – now Kvyat is next to Riccardio and Verstappen next to Carlos.
Looking at the Red Bull driver stats it is interesting to sell Riccardio avg grid at 3.90 vs Verstappen 8.40 yet looking at race results Verstappen is ahead with 5.13 versus Riccardio 5.20.
Whereby I presume Verstappen results include the first 4 races of the season when he drove for Toro Rosso.
PorscheF1 (@xtwl)
21st July 2016, 18:51
It’s not a fair comparison to his new teammate but those are still Verstappen his stats, so no change needed I believe.
Raveen dhana
21st July 2016, 18:50
Interesting race Williams vs force India, Williams bringing new floor so let’s see
WillOfTheSupremo
21st July 2016, 20:53
“This could be a difficult weekend for Williams”
When isn’t it? They struggle in the wet, they struggle at tight circuits, they struggle at twisty circuits, they struggle at every circuit.. dissapointing at best.
Raveendhana
22nd July 2016, 6:44
Williams have been under performing this season, and they have been beaten by force India few times.