Strategy gives Red Bull hope of fighting Mercedes

2016 Singapore Grand Prix pre-race analysis

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Mercedes have had eight front-row lock-outs so far this year, but not in Singapore. Nonetheless, there’s a decent chance they will be running first and second soon after the start in Singapore.

Daniel Ricciardo split the two silver cars in qualifying, but second place will be on the less clean side of the grid. And as Red Bull have opted to start the race on the harder super-soft tyres, Lewis Hamilton will have a strong chance of beating him to turn one. Assuming, of course, Hamilton gets away better than he did in Italy.

Singapore GP qualifying in pictures
If Red Bull can finish the first lap with at least one of the Mercedes behind them it will do their victory chances a lot of good. However their alternative strategy offers their best hope. They should be able to run a longer first stint than Mercedes, meaning they have a better chance of avoiding traffic when they eventually pit.

Key to this is how quickly the field spreads out behind them. An early Safety Car which bunches the field up again is something Mercedes will not want to see.

The Safety Car has never failed to appear during previous runnings of the Singapore Grand Prix. Due to the length of the track Safety Car periods take a long time in Singapore, and so race control may prefer to use the Virtual Safety Car whenever possible.

One driver who is counting on them to make up for a disappointing qualifying session is Sebastian Vettel. The only upside to his Q1 exit with a broken anti-roll bar is he now has plenty of fresh tyres for the race. With a few well-timed Safety Car appearances he could recover a decent points finish.

Pirelli expect most teams to use two-stop strategies in the race. Crucial to this will be at what point in the race they can put on a set of the soft tyres and run until the end. Last year Romain Grosjean did 33 laps on one set of softs, but his pace dropped off over the final laps. Drivers therefore may not feel comfortable about attempting to run to the end until half-distance in the 61-lap race. Though of course there is always the temptation to gamble on a slightly earlier stop in the hope that the Safety Car makes an appearance later on.

The other dimension to the Red Bull-Mercedes fight is the championship situation. Rosberg can’t afford to throw away any points, but losing them to Ricciardo is at least preferable to losing them to Hamilton. And if the championship contenders finish the race in the same order they start it, Rosberg will move back into the points lead.

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Qualifying times in full

Driver Car Q1

Q2 (vs Q1)

Q3 (vs Q2)
1 Nico Rosberg Mercedes 1’45.316 1’43.020 (-2.296) 1’42.584 (-0.436)
2 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull 1’44.255 1’43.933 (-0.322) 1’43.115 (-0.818)
3 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 1’45.167 1’43.471 (-1.696) 1’43.288 (-0.183)
4 Max Verstappen Red Bull 1’45.036 1’44.112 (-0.924) 1’43.328 (-0.784)
5 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari 1’44.964 1’44.159 (-0.805) 1’43.540 (-0.619)
6 Carlos Sainz Jnr Toro Rosso 1’45.499 1’44.493 (-1.006) 1’44.197 (-0.296)
7 Daniil Kvyat Toro Rosso 1’45.291 1’44.475 (-0.816) 1’44.469 (-0.006)
8 Nico Hulkenberg Force India 1’46.081 1’44.737 (-1.344) 1’44.479 (-0.258)
9 Fernando Alonso McLaren 1’45.373 1’44.653 (-0.720) 1’44.553 (-0.100)
10 Sergio Perez Force India 1’45.204 1’44.703 (-0.501) 1’44.582 (-0.121)
11 Valtteri Bottas Williams 1’46.086 1’44.740 (-1.346)
12 Felipe Massa Williams 1’46.056 1’44.991 (-1.065)
13 Jenson Button McLaren 1’45.262 1’45.144 (-0.118)
14 Esteban Gutierrez Haas 1’45.465 1’45.593 (+0.128)
15 Romain Grosjean Haas 1’45.609 1’45.723 (+0.114)
16 Marcus Ericsson Sauber 1’46.427 1’47.827 (+1.400)
17 Kevin Magnussen Renault 1’46.825
18 Felipe Nasr Sauber 1’46.860
19 Jolyon Palmer Renault 1’46.960
20 Pascal Wehrlein Manor 1’47.667
21 Esteban Ocon Manor 1’48.296
22 Sebastian Vettel Ferrari 1’49.116

Sector times

Driver Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3
Nico Rosberg 27.391 (1) 39.297 (1) 35.886 (2)
Daniel Ricciardo 27.552 (3) 39.671 (2) 35.867 (1)
Lewis Hamilton 27.463 (2) 39.831 (4) 35.927 (4)
Max Verstappen 27.727 (5) 39.709 (3) 35.892 (3)
Kimi Raikkonen 27.630 (4) 39.915 (5) 35.995 (5)
Carlos Sainz Jnr 27.955 (12) 40.017 (6) 36.225 (6)
Daniil Kvyat 27.954 (11) 40.091 (7) 36.226 (7)
Nico Hulkenberg 27.796 (7) 40.143 (10) 36.508 (10)
Fernando Alonso 27.965 (13) 40.136 (9) 36.393 (8)
Sergio Perez 27.785 (6) 40.194 (11) 36.471 (9)
Valtteri Bottas 27.853 (9) 40.113 (8) 36.753 (14)
Felipe Massa 27.833 (8) 40.406 (13) 36.723 (13)
Jenson Button 27.993 (14) 40.224 (12) 36.687 (12)
Esteban Gutierrez 27.923 (10) 40.485 (14) 36.677 (11)
Romain Grosjean 28.046 (15) 40.527 (15) 36.834 (15)
Marcus Ericsson 28.354 (17) 40.972 (16) 37.101 (17)
Kevin Magnussen 28.505 (19) 40.985 (17) 37.102 (18)
Felipe Nasr 28.442 (18) 41.173 (19) 37.245 (19)
Jolyon Palmer 28.565 (21) 41.074 (18) 37.026 (16)
Pascal Wehrlein 28.324 (16) 41.674 (21) 37.669 (20)
Esteban Ocon 28.528 (20) 41.636 (20) 38.013 (21)
Sebastian Vettel 28.719 (22) 41.816 (22) 38.264 (22)

Speed trap

Pos Driver Car Engine Speed (kph/mph) Gap
1 Pascal Wehrlein Manor Mercedes 314.5 (195.4)
2 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes Mercedes 314.5 (195.4) -0.0
3 Felipe Massa Williams Mercedes 313.8 (195.0) -0.7
4 Valtteri Bottas Williams Mercedes 313.7 (194.9) -0.8
5 Nico Rosberg Mercedes Mercedes 312.8 (194.4) -1.7
6 Esteban Ocon Manor Mercedes 312.4 (194.1) -2.1
7 Sergio Perez Force India Mercedes 311.4 (193.5) -3.1
8 Nico Hulkenberg Force India Mercedes 311.3 (193.4) -3.2
9 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari Ferrari 308.8 (191.9) -5.7
10 Felipe Nasr Sauber Ferrari 308.7 (191.8) -5.8
11 Max Verstappen Red Bull TAG Heuer 308.2 (191.5) -6.3
12 Fernando Alonso McLaren Honda 307.6 (191.1) -6.9
13 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull TAG Heuer 307.2 (190.9) -7.3
14 Romain Grosjean Haas Ferrari 306.5 (190.5) -8.0
15 Marcus Ericsson Sauber Ferrari 306.3 (190.3) -8.2
16 Sebastian Vettel Ferrari Ferrari 306.2 (190.3) -8.3
17 Esteban Gutierrez Haas Ferrari 306.2 (190.3) -8.3
18 Jenson Button McLaren Honda 305.6 (189.9) -8.9
19 Daniil Kvyat Toro Rosso Ferrari 304.3 (189.1) -10.2
20 Kevin Magnussen Renault Renault 303.4 (188.5) -11.1
21 Jolyon Palmer Renault Renault 302.2 (187.8) -12.3
22 Carlos Sainz Jnr Toro Rosso Ferrari 300.1 (186.5) -14.4

Remaining tyres sets per driver

Soft Super-soft Ultra-soft
Driver Team New Used New Used New Used
Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 2 0 0 1 0 3
Nico Rosberg Mercedes 2 0 0 1 0 3
Sebastian Vettel Ferrari 1 0 2 0 3 1
Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari 1 0 2 0 0 3
Felipe Massa Williams 1 0 1 0 1 4
Valtteri Bottas Williams 1 0 1 0 1 4
Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull 1 0 2 1 0 2
Max Verstappen Red Bull 1 0 2 1 0 2
Nico Hulkenberg Force India 2 0 1 0 0 3
Sergio Perez Force India 2 0 1 0 0 3
Kevin Magnussen Renault 1 0 2 0 1 3
Jolyon Palmer Renault 1 0 2 0 1 3
Daniil Kvyat Toro Rosso 1 0 1 1 0 3
Carlos Sainz Jnr Toro Rosso 1 0 1 1 0 3
Marcus Ericsson Sauber 0 1 2 0 2 2
Felipe Nasr Sauber 1 0 2 0 2 2
Fernando Alonso McLaren 1 0 1 0 0 4
Jenson Button McLaren 1 0 1 0 1 4
Pascal Wehrlein Manor 0 1 2 0 2 2
Rio Haryanto Manor 0 1 2 0 2 2
Romain Grosjean Haas 0 1 1 0 1 4
Esteban Gutierrez Haas 0 1 1 0 1 4

Over to you

Will Red Bull give Mercedes a serious fight in the Singapore Grand Prix? And where will Vettel finish from the back of the grid?

Share your views on the Singapore Grand Prix in the comments.

2016 Singapore Grand Prix

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Author information

Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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18 comments on “Strategy gives Red Bull hope of fighting Mercedes”

  1. Verstappen long runs have been the best of anyone all weekend long. Qualifying was inopportune but fourth still gives a decent chance of a win. Had trouble with the ultra soft tyres but will do wonders on the super soft. Expect two Red Bulls on the podium, probably one on the top step.

    1. Guybrush Threepwood
      17th September 2016, 22:16

      I suggest you take a look at FP2 where Ricciardo’s long runs were much better than Verstappen’s.

      1. I did. They weren’t.

      2. Guybrush….no they weren’t…..on the US Ricciardo was AVG 0,1 faster then Max…..on the SS Max was AVG 0,4 faster then Ricciardo

  2. The top 5 broke Vettel’s last year pole lap record !

    1. Fastest lap of the track not exactly means Lap record. Lap record are only official timing recorded from the race.

      1. Rosberg did beat Vettel’s 2013 fastest ever lap around Singapore, which does mean that over one lap these cars are now faster here as well. There cannot be too many circuits left where the V6s are still slower than the 2011+ V8s (i.e. both using the designed-to-degrade tyres).

        1. Vettel his lap was set during the race, Rosberg during qualifying.

          On top of that the configuration has changed. Ricciardo holds the record on this lay-out with a 1:50.041. This will very likely be broken today now that both Mercedes cars are in top shape. Vettel however drove a 1:48.574 on the original lay-out.

          1. Vettel his lap was set during the race, Rosberg during qualifying.

            On top of that the configuration has changed. Ricciardo holds the record on this lay-out with a 1:50.041. This will very likely be broken today now that both Mercedes cars are in top shape. Vettel however drove a 1:48.574 on the original lay-out.

            Besides Vettel drove a pole lap off 1:42.841 (2013) on harder tyres than Rosberg did his pole lap yesterday which was a 1:42.584. Ricciardo is again back in the 1:43s, it’s pretty safe to say Rosberg his lap yesterday was pretty quick.

    2. Guybrush Threepwood
      18th September 2016, 4:36

      They do have the Ultra-soft tyre available which they did not last year.

  3. Correction. I missed out reading “pole lap” record. I read it as lap record.

  4. Interesting. Mercedes has no new super soft tyres, but two new sets of soft tyres. They have one used set of super softs – how many laps has that run already? Are they maybe planning to do a one-stop (ultrasoft-soft)? How did the soft tyre perform in practice?

    Also will be interesting what Vettel does from the back. In a race without safety car, I think he might be able to break into the top 10 (not by much though). He will be hoping for well-timed safety cars though so that he could end up higher; I wonder whether he has talked to Briatore already?

    1. I’m tipping Seb to run one or two laps to try and gain a few places on the ultra-soft before pitting for the super-soft to go as fast and far as possible in clear air before the mid-field can pit and come out in front of him. This could get him to about 10th on track before 2nd stop for new softs and see how far they take him. Being able to do 2 stints on softs might have been handy to ensure getting to the end, so a 3-stop is very possible. Maybe the Ferrari can keep the supers alive for as long as the Mercs do with the softs. Kimi will be hoping so.
      Of course a lot depends on accidents and safety cars.

  5. I think Mercedes may be forced into a 3-stop (U – S – S – SS) or then may really struggle towards the end of the race with drop off.

    Where as Red Bull will have an easy 2-stop, however they might split the strategies, i.e. SS – SS – S / SS – S – SS

    My prediction is Ricciardo for the win, Rosberg 2nd, Verstappen 3rd, Hamilton 4th

  6. Ric for the win Ves will be taken out by a reptile

  7. Hm, does the heavy rain that fell in between mean there is less difference between the two sides of the grid? And how will it affect the tyres – will the USofts suffer more, will the soft be a better prospect now?

  8. Trying not to be pessimistic, but if Rosberg comes out of turn 1 in the lead it’s effectively race over. Who stands with him on the podium could be the main action point today.

  9. This race has only won by the three current great champions of Formula one over the last 8 years. If Nico needs to change this today, he needs to give his all. I still believe he lacks that extra bit to be a champion. But he has shown already that he is a best driver ever to not win a World championship.

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