“We have done 70% of the job today”: Sergio Perez’s verdict on Force India’s performance on Saturday was a revealing indication of how important qualifying position is at Suzuka.
But it’s not the whole story, and if anyone knows that it’s Nico Rosberg. He started from pole position at this track in the previous two seasons but was beaten to victory by Lewis Hamilton on both occasions.
A repeat of the same circumstances tomorrow is something the Mercedes pit wall will be eager to avoid. Rosberg has been rather more feisty in his wheel-to-wheel encounters this year and while the incidents in Spain and Austria (with Hamilton), Germany (with Max Verstappen) and Malaysia (with Kimi Raikkonen) didn’t always work out to his benefit, he has less to lose from a collision which puts both drivers out.
Both Mercedes drivers have had variable getaways this year. Other cars may get involved in their fight for victory: in 2013 Romain Grosjean burst through from fourth on the grid to take the lead on the drag to the first corner. Incidents are also common at turn one: last year Daniel Ricciardo, Felipe Massa and Sergio Perez all picked up damage.
Teams are required to have two sets of hard tyres per car for the race. Ferrari look set to run a soft-hard-hard strategy on both their cars, while their rivals will have the option to incorporate a stint on mediums if they choose. The condition of the track will strongly influence this decision. Note that drivers are required to use at least one set of hard tyres.
A considerable amount of rain is expected on the morning of the race. Although it is expected to dry out before the race starts it will affect the grip levels and ‘reset’ the surface. That plus the anticipated cooler conditions may make the medium tyre a better bet.
Those who choose not to start on the soft tyres will be scrutinised closely by those on the pit wall. The position of the Williams drivers is particularly interesting, as they occupy the ‘new tyre front row’, and in Malaysia Valtteri Bottas was able to use this to his advantage to jump the Force India drivers.
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Qualifying times in full
Driver | Car | Q1 | Q2 (vs Q1) | Q3 (vs Q2) | |
1 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes | 1’31.858 | 1’30.714 (-1.144) | 1’30.647 (-0.067) |
2 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 1’32.218 | 1’30.758 (-1.460) | 1’30.660 (-0.098) |
3 | Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | 1’31.674 | 1’31.184 (-0.490) | 1’30.949 (-0.235) |
4 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | 1’31.659 | 1’31.225 (-0.434) | 1’31.028 (-0.197) |
5 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 1’32.487 | 1’31.229 (-1.258) | 1’31.178 (-0.051) |
6 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | 1’32.538 | 1’31.240 (-1.298) | 1’31.262 (+0.022) |
7 | Sergio Perez | Force India | 1’32.682 | 1’32.237 (-0.445) | 1’31.961 (-0.276) |
8 | Romain Grosjean | Haas | 1’32.458 | 1’32.176 (-0.282) | 1’31.961 (-0.215) |
9 | Nico Hulkenberg | Force India | 1’32.448 | 1’32.200 (-0.248) | 1’32.142 (-0.058) |
10 | Esteban Gutierrez | Haas | 1’32.620 | 1’32.155 (-0.465) | 1’32.547 (+0.392) |
11 | Valtteri Bottas | Williams | 1’32.383 | 1’32.315 (-0.068) | |
12 | Felipe Massa | Williams | 1’32.562 | 1’32.380 (-0.182) | |
13 | Daniil Kvyat | Toro Rosso | 1’32.645 | 1’32.623 (-0.022) | |
14 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Toro Rosso | 1’32.789 | 1’32.685 (-0.104) | |
15 | Fernando Alonso | McLaren | 1’32.819 | 1’32.689 (-0.130) | |
16 | Jolyon Palmer | Renault | 1’32.796 | 1’32.807 (+0.011) | |
17 | Jenson Button | McLaren | 1’32.851 | ||
18 | Kevin Magnussen | Renault | 1’33.023 | ||
19 | Marcus Ericsson | Sauber | 1’33.222 | ||
20 | Felipe Nasr | Sauber | 1’33.332 | ||
21 | Esteban Ocon | Manor | 1’33.353 | ||
22 | Pascal Wehrlein | Manor | 1’33.561 |
Sector times
Driver | Sector 1 | Sector 2 | Sector 3 |
---|---|---|---|
Nico Rosberg | 32.241 (2) | 40.719 (1) | 17.545 (1) |
Lewis Hamilton | 32.233 (1) | 40.837 (2) | 17.549 (2) |
Kimi Raikkonen | 32.302 (4) | 40.928 (4) | 17.663 (3) |
Sebastian Vettel | 32.412 (6) | 40.844 (3) | 17.724 (4) |
Max Verstappen | 32.285 (3) | 41.093 (6) | 17.769 (7) |
Daniel Ricciardo | 32.326 (5) | 40.953 (5) | 17.867 (12) |
Sergio Perez | 32.766 (8) | 41.358 (8) | 17.785 (8) |
Romain Grosjean | 32.708 (7) | 41.436 (10) | 17.767 (6) |
Nico Hulkenberg | 32.830 (10) | 41.293 (7) | 17.797 (9) |
Esteban Gutierrez | 32.809 (9) | 41.510 (13) | 17.731 (5) |
Valtteri Bottas | 32.866 (11) | 41.463 (11) | 17.850 (10) |
Felipe Massa | 33.108 (14) | 41.414 (9) | 17.858 (11) |
Daniil Kvyat | 32.964 (12) | 41.632 (16) | 17.947 (17) |
Carlos Sainz Jnr | 32.987 (13) | 41.635 (17) | 18.016 (19) |
Fernando Alonso | 33.208 (16) | 41.534 (14) | 17.892 (14) |
Jolyon Palmer | 33.122 (15) | 41.504 (12) | 17.884 (13) |
Jenson Button | 33.307 (18) | 41.646 (18) | 17.898 (15) |
Kevin Magnussen | 33.356 (20) | 41.584 (15) | 18.046 (22) |
Marcus Ericsson | 33.288 (17) | 41.903 (19) | 18.029 (20) |
Felipe Nasr | 33.338 (19) | 41.964 (22) | 18.030 (21) |
Esteban Ocon | 33.513 (21) | 41.904 (20) | 17.917 (16) |
Pascal Wehrlein | 33.529 (22) | 41.939 (21) | 18.003 (18) |
Speed trap
Pos | Driver | Car | Engine | Speed (kph/mph) | Gap |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | Mercedes | 315.5 (196.0) | |
2 | Nico Rosberg | Mercedes | Mercedes | 315.1 (195.8) | -0.4 |
3 | Romain Grosjean | Haas | Ferrari | 314.4 (195.4) | -1.1 |
4 | Pascal Wehrlein | Manor | Mercedes | 314.0 (195.1) | -1.5 |
5 | Esteban Ocon | Manor | Mercedes | 311.9 (193.8) | -3.6 |
6 | Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | Ferrari | 311.8 (193.7) | -3.7 |
7 | Esteban Gutierrez | Haas | Ferrari | 311.7 (193.7) | -3.8 |
8 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | Ferrari | 311.4 (193.5) | -4.1 |
9 | Jolyon Palmer | Renault | Renault | 310.7 (193.1) | -4.8 |
10 | Sergio Perez | Force India | Mercedes | 309.4 (192.3) | -6.1 |
11 | Valtteri Bottas | Williams | Mercedes | 309.4 (192.3) | -6.1 |
12 | Kevin Magnussen | Renault | Renault | 309.1 (192.1) | -6.4 |
13 | Felipe Massa | Williams | Mercedes | 309.0 (192.0) | -6.5 |
14 | Nico Hulkenberg | Force India | Mercedes | 308.6 (191.8) | -6.9 |
15 | Felipe Nasr | Sauber | Ferrari | 307.6 (191.1) | -7.9 |
16 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | TAG Heuer | 307.4 (191.0) | -8.1 |
17 | Marcus Ericsson | Sauber | Ferrari | 306.7 (190.6) | -8.8 |
18 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | TAG Heuer | 305.9 (190.1) | -9.6 |
19 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Toro Rosso | Ferrari | 304.9 (189.5) | -10.6 |
20 | Fernando Alonso | McLaren | Honda | 304.4 (189.1) | -11.1 |
21 | Daniil Kvyat | Toro Rosso | Ferrari | 303.6 (188.6) | -11.9 |
22 | Jenson Button | McLaren | Honda | 302.6 (188.0) | -12.9 |
Drivers’ remaining tyres
Driver | Team | Hard | Medium | Soft | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New | Used | New | Used | New | Used | ||
Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Nico Rosberg | Mercedes | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Felipe Massa | Williams | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Valtteri Bottas | Williams | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Nico Hulkenberg | Force India | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Sergio Perez | Force India | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
Kevin Magnussen | Renault | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Jolyon Palmer | Renault | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Daniil Kvyat | Toro Rosso | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Carlos Sainz Jnr | Toro Rosso | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Marcus Ericsson | Sauber | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Felipe Nasr | Sauber | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Fernando Alonso | McLaren | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
Jenson Button | McLaren | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
Pascal Wehrlein | Manor | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Esteban Ocon | Manor | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Romain Grosjean | Haas | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Esteban Gutierrez | Haas | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Over to you
How will the latest round between the two Mercedes drivers be resolved? And will the Red Bull or Ferrari drivers play a role in the outcome?
Share your views on the Japanese Grand Prix in the comments.
sethje (@seth-space)
8th October 2016, 13:35
As i understand from RBR the difference between Medium and Hard is very small. The harder tire has the advantage of a longer time to react on changes in the race.
Btw it looks that the engine mappings play a big rol in the quali results. F.i The Ferrari engines did good today.
[q] Note that drivers are required to use at least one set of hard tyres. [/q] They need to use two different sets at least. There is no requirement for the use of Hard tyres!
IJW (@)
8th October 2016, 13:39
Actually the rules are slightly different this year, in that the drivers have to use a nominated (by Pirelli) prime tyre in the race. The Hard for this race is the mandatory tyre.
ia
8th October 2016, 13:46
Good point. Also with the chance of rain, choosing to go for long runs might not pay off.
gdewilde (@gdewilde)
8th October 2016, 14:25
@ijw1 I don’t think that’s true. I thought the rules required drivers to use at least 2 different compounds during a race. Soft-Medium or Soft-Hard, doesn’t matter which one they use.
dex022 (@dex022)
8th October 2016, 14:34
Hard IS mandatory that is why is still stupid rule even if we have 3 compounds. When 1 is mandatory every talk about strategy is more less over. We should have 3 compounds but let teams race what ever they want.Then we would see different strategy.
nase
8th October 2016, 15:55
@dex022
“When 1 is mandatory every talk about strategy is more less over.”
Is it? Pirelli nominated two sets of hards for Malaysia as well, and I didn’t get the feeling that the tyre strategies suffered by any means.
IJW (@)
8th October 2016, 15:04
@gdewilde Then, we are both right! :-) They have to use 2 different sets of tyres AND use the mandatory prime tyre for one of those sets.
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine)
8th October 2016, 17:51
@gdewilde I checked the notes from Pirelli while writing this: Each driver must have at least two sets of hard tyres available for the race and must use at least one of them.
ia
8th October 2016, 13:38
I believe that since Mercedes can not race in cruise mode anymore now RBR is closer, races will get closer and Mercedes might start to fail again. At least 1 MER has been struggling in the latest races.
If RBR gets stuck behind FER it will benefit MERC. I believe RBR is faster in the race then FER and can challenge MER.
So start will be very important. FER has very good starts unless VET starts doing crazy things again.
Strategy, strategy tomorrow.
OmarRoncal - Go Seb!!! (@)
8th October 2016, 16:36
FER is Alonso?
Phylyp (@phylyp)
8th October 2016, 17:04
@omarr-pepper I believe @ia meant Ferrari (who don’t have a cute three-letter abbreviation).
UnitedKingdomRacing (@unitedkingdomracing)
8th October 2016, 18:18
Isn’t it usually SF for Scuderia Ferrari?
spoutnik (@spoutnik)
8th October 2016, 19:05
I think he was joking :-)
Phylyp (@phylyp)
8th October 2016, 19:19
Ah, missed that :-) @spoutnik
Nice one @omarr-pepper
OmarRoncal - Go Seb!!! (@)
9th October 2016, 0:56
@spoutnik for a moment the acronym FER blocked my mind… I wasn’t joking, I really struggled to try to understand his comment.
hahostolze (@hahostolze)
8th October 2016, 13:38
Not sure about this. Last season’s race (and indeed the past too) shows overtaking at Suzuka is definitely possible. Sure, you have to be one of the better overtakers, but we have quite a few good ones in this field. Not so set on this being a race where mainly tactics decide the winner, if the cars are as closely matched as practice and quali suggested, I can see some overtakes determining the winner.
ia
8th October 2016, 17:51
Use of different tire strategy will help you to overtake too. And it doesn’t wear on your tires that much.
glynh (@glynh)
8th October 2016, 13:45
Hopefully we actually see the Mercedes racing each other for once as it’s hardly happened in the past 3 years but if we have rain and pitstops everything could change and I wouldn’t mind seeing the red bulls, or ferraris, fighting for the lead again.
Kribana (@krichelle)
8th October 2016, 20:46
If we can have qualifyings like this all year then probably it would make us more exciting… we want some HYPEE!!
JohnNik (@johnnik)
8th October 2016, 14:13
I was just talking to a Facebook friend about the start. With the Mercs on row1, Kimi and Max on row2, 5th might just be the best grid slot going…
NewVerstappenFan (@jureo)
8th October 2016, 21:52
Could be. Quite alarming how much those guys infront tangle this year.
nase
8th October 2016, 14:23
Here’s one thing I don’t get:
“Teams are required to have two sets of medium tyres per car for the race. […] Note that drivers are required to use at least one set of hard tyres.”
In my opinion, the second phrase makes perfect sense, as Pirelli has nominated two sets of hard tyres as mandatory. But how does this affect the mediums? Vettel has only brought a single set of mediums for the entire weekend for instance (https://www.racefans.net/2016/09/27/red-bull-prefer-harder-tyres-suzuka/). Something’s not quite right here.
SatchelCharge (@satchelcharge)
8th October 2016, 16:37
It must be a mistake in the article.
Paul A (@paul-a)
8th October 2016, 15:45
Ferrari, Toro Rosso, Haas and Mclaren apparently all decided not to bring any “mediums”, thus limiting their strategic choices. This was either a short-sighted mistake (hard to believe that four teams would independently make the same mistake), or there’s something that’s not obvious… Setup options? Tyre life and safety car possibilities? Weather predictions?
spoutnik (@spoutnik)
8th October 2016, 19:08
@paul-a it can also be about car characteristics and previous year data.
Alan Wignall
8th October 2016, 17:59
Front 2 rows and I’d only bet on Kimi making a clean start unless he gets caught up in other people’s mess. Hamilton is edgy and on the back foot, Verstappen can be reckless anytime and it’s in Rosbergs championship interests to take Lewis out even if he can’t finish himself.
Other scenarios?
ia
8th October 2016, 18:45
Vettel is so stressed about not making another disaster that he will do something wrong again crashing into the front rows.
Bultaco85
8th October 2016, 22:28
I dont think Vettel is stressed at all.
lockup (@)
8th October 2016, 20:27
Rosberg is on a leash from his team I don’t see him doing anything crazy to Lewis. Lewis’ judgment in T1 has always been awesome. Seb will be trying really, really hard not to touch anyone and Kimi always does. Max will weave to keep whoever behind him and Ric is pretty sane. I reckon the action will be behind the top 6 – 2x Haas + 2x FI looks like an explosive cocktail to me…
rick bradner
8th October 2016, 23:05
Rosberg is on a leash from his team?
I think all he needs to do is make it clear to the team and Lewis that he won’t be forced off track.
Push the issue at your own peril…
ruliemaulana (@ruliemaulana)
8th October 2016, 19:18
“And if qualifying accounted for 70% of the job, then the next 29% will be done in the few seconds after the red lights go out…”
…and the 1% account for the fate set by a ‘higher power’ :)
Fletch (@fletchuk)
8th October 2016, 19:58
With Lewis’ mindset at the moment I could totally see him getting a bit of red mist in the first corner and doing something he’ll regret. I hope he doesn’t, but it wont surprise me if it happens.
NewVerstappenFan (@jureo)
8th October 2016, 21:59
And if he does, people will blame Nico.
Bernie
9th October 2016, 1:39
Well, Nico is responsible for Lewis’ famous “understeer”.
pSynrg (@psynrg)
8th October 2016, 23:16
@fletchuk I know where you are coming from re. mindset. Though, I don’t think Lewis feels he’s been wronged by Rosberg. I’d say even Lewis is impressed with Nico’s commitment and consistency.
Markos
8th October 2016, 21:22
I wouldn`t rule Vettel either at the start, if he can turn those frustrations in motivation that is ;)
Markos
8th October 2016, 21:23
*rule out*
pastaman (@)
8th October 2016, 23:04
I must admit, a small part of me is hoping for a Senna/Prost-like collision at turn one. The onus is on HAM to keep his nose clean if he wants to keep his championship hopes alive.