Nico Rosberg, Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes, Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, 2016

One more win will clinch title for Rosberg

2016 Mexican Grand Prix stats and facts

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One more win this year will guarantee Nico Rosberg the world championship regardless of what his team mate does in the final two races.

Lewis Hamilton took his eighth victory of the year in the Mexican Grand Prix. But he could end the season with more victories than his team mate and still lose the championship.

Alain Prost, Renault, Monza, 1981
Hamilton has now won as many races as Prost
Indeed, whichever of them doesn’t claim the title will set a new record for winning the most races in a season without taking the championship. The current record stands at seven, but Rosberg already has nine wins and Sunday was Hamilton’s eighth.

Hamilton’s 51st career victory means he has now drawn level with Alain Prost in second place on the all-time race winners list. Prost won 51 races in a 199-race career, whereas Hamilton has started 186 races so far.

The only driver in F1 history to have won more races than Hamilton is Michael Schumacher, with 91 wins from 306 starts.

This was Hamilton’s first victory at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, which means he has now won at every venue on the calendar with two exceptions. These are Baku, where he has raced once, and Interlagos, where he has appeared in all nine of his F1 seasons so far without winning. If he doesn’t change that this year his title chances will almost certainly be over.

Hamilton also took his first pole position in Mexico, increasing the record he set last week for setting pole at the most different circuits. Hamilton’s 59 career poles have come at 24 different tracks.

This was the 25th consecutive race which featured a Mercedes on the front row. This is their best-ever streak and leaves them ten shy of the record held by Williams.

However Mercedes have broken their record for most wins by a team in a single season, and done it with two races to spare. They’ve won 17 times this year, once more than in 2014 and 2015.

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Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari, Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, 2016
Vettel didn’t get to keep his podium trophy
Sunday’s race featured a rare example of a penalty being levied between the end of the race and the podium ceremony, meaning that Sebastian Vettel stood in third place instead of one-the-road third place finisher Max Verstappen. It brought to mind the 1989 Japanese Grand Prix, when on-the-road winner Ayrton Senna was notoriously disqualified immediately after the race and Alessandro Nannini was sent out onto the top step of the podium.

However in this case Vettel did not keep his third place. A further post-race penalty handed it to Daniel Ricciardo, who originally finished fifth. For Ricciardo this could be considered recompense for the 2014 Australian Grand Prix, where he stood on the podium in second place but was later disqualified.

Vettel, meanwhile, already has experience of appearing on the podium and then being relegated: it happened to him at the Hockenheimring in 2012 too and on that occasion he was also demoted to fifth place.

The post-race changes to the order means Ricciardo is now confirmed in third place in the championship. With 50 points available in the final two races he cannot catch or be caught by any of his rivals. He also set the fastest lap of the race for the eighth time in his career, putting him level with James Hunt, Gilles Villeneuve, Ralf Schumacher and Jenson Button.

Start Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, 2016
2016 Mexican Grand Prix in pictures
Ferrari’s chances of catching Red Bull for second in the constructors’ championship are now as good as over. They are 62 points behind with 86 available.

Felipe Massa scored two points, moving him within one point of Fernando Alonso for the last place inside the championship top ten. Last weekend was his 250th participation in a grand prix weekend. He is now two races away from retirement, and his final race at Yas Marina should be his 250th start (he participated in but did not start the 2005 United States and 2009 Hungarian Grands Prix).

As last year, the Williams drivers were by far the fastest through the speed trap. Valtteri Bottas clocked 372.5kph (231.5mph), which was almost as high as his unofficial top speed in the European Grand Prix earlier this year.

Review the year so far in statistics here:

Have you spotted any other interesting stats and facts from the Mexican Grand Prix? Share them in the comments.

2016 Mexican Grand Prix

Browse all 2016 Mexican Grand Prix articles

Author information

Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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108 comments on “One more win will clinch title for Rosberg”

  1. But he could end the season with more victories than his team mate and still lose the championship.

    In that case some people will call it “fate” or “carma”, because back in 2008 Lewis clinched the title from Massa, while the Brazilian won more races.

    1. only because hamilton was robbed of a win in what is known as the worst decision in F1 history

      1. What? We had double points in 2008?

      2. You mean Spa? Because that was actually the correct call i.m.o. Overtaking by going off track and than handing back the position in a way that still lets you go back past in front/preserve your advantage in the same move is cheating. And in light of the last race its a rather hot topic, but actually i think that was one of the better stewarding calls on track limits, which is kind of a miracle in itself.
        Or was there something else in 08 i forgot?

        Also, wouldn’t Hamilton have to lose a championship while having more victories than his oponent for calling it karma?

        1. ONLY because of spa, really! How about Massa losing certain wins like Hungary and Singapore, Hamilton winning in Monaco because of a driving error which made him pit at just the right time.

      3. the worst decision in F1 history

        LOL Hamilton fans can be hyperbolic

        Letting the Singapore results stand was a far worse decision.

      4. Chill guys. he is talking about the crashgate…oh wait…

      5. I think you mean Massa was robbed of a win in Singapore.

        1. It’s hard to imagine that Massa would not have at least scored the two points needed for the championship.

          1. Especially with those extra bonus Bourdais penalty points.

          2. Crashgate or no crashgate, the main reason why Felipe Baby did not score at least a few points at Singapore ’08 was the “hosegate”. For which only his team is to blame, not the FIA, not Flavio.

      6. known by who as the worst decision?

        for the same kind of infraction Suzuka 2005 was a much more absurd and damaging decision. Maybe it was less of an issue because the WDC was already decided.

        And if you ask me, Spa 2008 was the right decision… and a miracle in itself because up to then a certain L. Carl Davidson H. had got away with absolutely everything you can imagine and more, including a crane to put him back on track when he was stuck.

        1. I consider Spa 2008 to be the wrong decision because it no basis in the rules at the time. Similar ‘give position back and then retake it’ incidents had gone unpunished in the past (I think the most recent at the time was 2 years previous at Suzuka) and it was only legislated against after Spa.
          Following the incident itself, Raikkonen wasn’t at full speed on the next straight as Hamilton backed off to give the place up, then once Raikkonen was past Hamilton easily drove past him, so you have to wonder what Raikkonen was playing at. Either way, Hamilton later lost the position anyway, followed by Raikkonen spinning and later crashing out of the race, so what was he to do? Should he have driven the wrong way about the track so he was on the same lap Raikkonen crashed on and then retire once he got to Blanchimont, because that would have been the only way to give the place back then.
          To me, the whole decision stunk more of the continued attack on McLaren from the FIA then it did of any on-track misdemeanors

          1. Unpunished at Suzuka????????????????????? what are you talking about?

          2. Yep. Took me a while to find it but I remembered seeing it. In the 2005 Japanese GP, Alonso missed the chicane and overtook Christian Klein. After letting Klein back past immediately, Alonso was still able to out drag and overtake Klein by the time they reached turn one and disappeared up the road.

            Granted, Alonso technically punished and was asked to give up the position (3 laps later with a seven second gap between them. Found that out while looking the incident up as I only saw a video of it previously), which I can only assume was the basis that was quietly in the rules and used on Hamilton. That being said, Klein was still in the race and didn’t re-overtake Alonso at any point (unlike Raikkonen), so the 2005 incident was closer to a ‘lasting advantage’, even if there wasn’t really one in the first place considering Alonso gave the place back straight away. I dare say it’s not remembered because it wasn’t over a race victory, nor decided after the race.

      7. At Spa, Lewis was naughty and he got punished for it. He was not robbed, he was caught trying to cheat.

        1. Did he cheat? He was penalised for a rule that he wasn’t told about and wasn’t in the sporting regulations. How is that cheating exactly?

          1. There is a rule that has been there forever stating that you must not gain anything by going off track. Being able to slipstream between the Busstop and La Source is certainly something that Hamilton was not able to do without going off. So he gained. Whether Raikkonen pushed him off is a different debate.

    2. Call it carma (sic) or whatever, but until the Bernie medal system is adopted the WDC and WCC still go by points, not number of wins.

      And it’s not been uncommon in F1 history for the WDC to have less wins than (at least) one of their rivals. I have found 11 cases (not counting 2016):

      The paragon is Rosberg père whose WDC with just one victory in ’82 left behind Prost, Lauda, Arnoux, Pironi and Watson with 2 wins.

      But the king of karma must be Alain Prost. In ’83 with 4 wins he lost again the WDC to Nelson Piquet who got 3. And in ’84 yet again with 7 wins to Niki Lauda’s 5 . So that was 3 years in a row.

      Then karma had its way it seems (well, almost, 2 vs. 3, not that bad). In ’86 Prost got the WDC with 4 wins while Nigel Mansell got 5. In ’89 Prost got 4 victories to Senna’s 6 but won again.

      But surely the most astonishing cases were ’87 with Nelson Piquet getting his 3rd WDC with 3 victories while Nigel Mansell got 6, or even more extreme, ’58 with Stirling Moss’ 4 victories losing the WDC to Mike Hawthorn with just 1 (AFAIK there are the only times that a driver lost the WDC with 3 victories more than the winner, and there are no cases with 4 or more).

      And it doesn’t end here. Besides the already commented ’08 with Hamilton and Massa, and the likely upcoming “karmic” ’16 with Rosberg and Hamilton, there are yet a few more cases:

      ’79: Alan Jones (4) lost to Jody Scheckter (3)

      ’67: Jim Clark (4) loses to Denny Hulme (2). Besides both cases with Prost (’84 & ’89) this is the only other one when the loser has 2 more victories, AFAIK.

      ’64: Clark (3) loses to Surtees (2). And no, karma didn’t seem to work with Clark.

      And this is all I could find. Please let me know if I got something wrong or missed some case, thanks.

  2. I bet Bernie’s wishing he organised double points for Abu Dhabi again

    1. Shhhh… he may still try.

    2. @ksells & @selbbin – he’s probably busy trying to engineer a “winner takes all” scenario for Abu Dhabi. He’s always been keen on improving the allure of that race!

      1. Then he should just issue a decree making Hamilton the winner and Rosberg 4th at Interlagos. And if the rules don’t allow this, change the rules.

        An extra benefit: Hamilton at long last would break his Brazilian duck.

  3. Hehe.. Hamilton isin good form… But overall he had very bad form at multiple GP this year, Nico wad more consistent overall.

    Either winner will be good, but if Lewis wins last 4 races, and Nico takes crown with fewer wins… Well maybe there could be a better way to win a championship, a more deserving one.

    But if Lewis does win both final races, and in this form, I dont see why not… What else can Nico do?

    1. But overall he had very bad form at multiple GP this year, Nico wad more consistent overall.

      Actually look at his performances each race and you will see that simply isn’t true. I think on the whole Nico has actually been less consistent this year than in previous seasons

    2. Disagree. Lewis has been marginally better than Lewis in Quali and race trim this year. Sure, he hasn’t beaten Rosberg as convincingly as he did in 2014 and 2015, but nonetheless, it would be hard for anyone to argue that Nico has been the better driver this season.

      Mechanical problems and that retirement in Suzuka have given Nico the lead. Honestly, if Lewis takes the next 2 poles and wins, he would be a more desrving champ in my books at least.

      1. Lewis better than Lewis in qualifying and race?

  4. What was the lowest on track finishing position to have ended up as a podium place?
    I can’t imagine many have finished below 5th on track, yet been elevated to top 3 in the final classification?

  5. Verstappen was classified 3rd, 4th & 5th in the same race. Has that happened before? :P

    1. @pluisje Can’t say for sure, but he’s certainly the youngest driver ever to be classified 3rd, 4th & 5th in the same race :P

    2. On a related note, have we ever had a race where one driver crossed the line in 3rd, a different driver took to the podium and yet another driver was classified in 3rd?

    3. ColdFly F1 (@)
      31st October 2016, 13:55

      Not sure if it has happened before, but certainly simultaneously with Vettel and Ricciardo. @pluisje

    4. I think Ivan Capelli fits that in Belgian GP 1988. He finished fifth and originally Boutsen who was 3rd was disqualified. In the end both Benettons (Nannini finished 4th) were disqualified so Capelli inherited 3rd spot.

      1. Awesome memory @bleu.

    5. @pluisje Fisichella was classified 1st, 2nd and 3rd at the 2000 Brazilian Grand Prix:

      He crossed the line in third place behind Schumacher and Coulthard (and therefore stood on the third step on the podium). The top two were initially disqualified due to wear on the planks giving Fisi the win. Schumacher was subsequently reinstated with Fisi officially finishing in 2nd place. Others further down the grid also had three separate finishing positions, but not sequential as other cars were also disqualified and reinstated.

      It wasn’t the only time Fisichella had more than one official finishing position at Interlagos of course as he was initially awarded 2nd place in 2003, because of confusion about the rules on countback after a red flag, but this was subsequently corrected to first place (but not until days later).

  6. If Lewis wins more races this year than Nico and Nico is crowned champion I actually like the family connection. He will be the second Rosburg to win a title without winning the most races in a season after all Keke’s single race win in ’82.

    Looking at 82, it was quite an interesting season with lots of two race winners, how I long for a season like that again!

      1. Well in theory it would be great, but a contributing factor to no driver scoring more than two wins was that Villeneuve was killed and Pironi sufferred career ending injuries.

        I hope we never have a season like this ever again.

    1. @b3ndy this time no title rivals would be dead or wounded so early in the season though.

      1. Sorry, obviously minus deaths / injury, that was taken as a given.

  7. Given that a victory at Interlagos gives him the WDC, this is a weekend I’d truly welcome someone asking Rosberg about thoughts of winning the championship, since his usual canned response is to say he only thinks of the race.

  8. ColdFly F1 (@)
    31st October 2016, 14:10

    2nd time Ricciardo clinches 3rd in the WDC when the title fight is still wide open.

    In 2014 Vettel was fourth in the standing with 2 races to go, but eventually lost to a Finn in his 2nd year in F1. Also this year Vettel can only lose 4th to either a Finn or a 2nd year driver.

  9. Can’t write off Hamilton . may be the rain God’s will play an integral part in Hamilton’s title bid as the probability of rain is high in interlagos we saw it before at Monaco and Silverstone how well Hamilton had mastered the changing cconditions .

  10. I’m not sure if this has been mentioned already this season but if Rosberg becomes champion him and his father will match the Hill’s 34 year difference between championship wins. If anyone ever wanted motive for the interfering higher power Hamilton spoke of surely that is concrete ;)

  11. Let’s hope so. Having HAM winning the champ after getting away with a victory like that in the Mexican GP… would be a shame indeed. It would be simply an undeserved champ.

    1. That hardly seems reasonable considering Malaysia.

      1. Most of the criticism directed at Lewis isn’t reasonable…

    2. Undeserved? So nothing from the whole season would make him a deserving champion?

      1. They’re both deserving this year, which is why keeping it reasonably close is so good. But hopefully Rosberg gets it.

    3. to be honest, both Lewis and Nico should have been penalized for the turned 1 incidents.

      1. @ianbond001 How did Rosberg deserve a penalty? Verstappen bumped him off the track?

    4. So one race now dictates whether a driver is a deserving champion or not? Good thing you are not in charge of F1.

    5. I fail to see how a hopeless driver in the rain (remember Monaco, or how he struggled in Silverstone while Hamilton was cruising) is a deserving champion @corrado-dub. That engine blow in Malaysia really helped Rosberg’s title bid, nothing to do with his mighty skills.

  12. So Lewis needs to beat Rosberg in both races, by a decent margin in at least one? I think? I’m struggling to really comprehend the possibilities, need one of those “how it could be decided” articles.

    Even if a Red Bull takes Nico out at the start of the next race (which almost happened at this one) and Hamilton goes on to win, he’d still be able to claim the WDC by taking a 1-2 in Abu Dhabi?

    1. Hamilton is 19 points behind, so if a RBR takes Rosberg out and Hamilton wins, Hamilton will enter Abu Dhabi ahead by 6 points.

      So if Rosberg leads home a 1-2, he’ll outscore Hamilton by 7 points, taking the championship by 1 point.

    2. How Rosberg can win the championship:

      (All stated points differences are in Rosberg’s favour.)

      If Rosberg wins in Brazil, he will win the championship regardless of where Hamilton finishes.

      If Rosberg finishes second in Brazil, he will win the championship if Hamilton finishes fourth or lower [R2].
      — If Hamilton is third, the difference between them will be 22 points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-eight finish in Abu Dhabi.
      — If Hamilton wins, the difference between them will be 12 points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-three finish in Abu Dhabi.

      If Rosberg finishes third in Brazil, he will win the championship if Hamilton finishes sixth or lower.
      — If Hamilton is fifth, the difference between them will be 24 points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-ten finish in Abu Dhabi [R4].
      — If Hamilton is fourth, the difference between them will be 22 points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-eight finish in Abu Dhabi.
      — If Hamilton is second, the difference between them will be 16 points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-five finish in Abu Dhabi.
      — If Hamilton wins, the difference between them will be nine points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-two finish in Abu Dhabi.

      If Rosberg finishes fourth in Brazil, he will win the championship if Hamilton finishes eighth or lower.
      — If Hamilton is seventh, the difference between them will be 25 points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-ten finish in Abu Dhabi [H3].
      — If Hamilton is sixth, the difference between them will be 23 points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-eight finish in Abu Dhabi [H3].
      — If Hamilton is fifth, the difference between them will be 21 points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-seven finish in Abu Dhabi [H3].
      — If Hamilton is third, the difference between them will be 16 points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-five finish in Abu Dhabi.
      — If Hamilton is second, the difference between them will be 13 points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-three finish in Abu Dhabi [H2].
      — If Hamilton wins, the difference between them will be six points, meaning Rosberg will have to win in Abu Dhabi to be sure of the championship.

      If Rosberg finishes fifth in Brazil, he will win the championship if Hamilton is ninth or lower.
      — If Hamilton is eighth, the difference between them will be 25 points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-ten finish in Abu Dhabi [H3].
      — If Hamilton is seventh, the difference between them will be 23 points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-eight finish in Abu Dhabi [H3].
      — If Hamilton is sixth, the difference between them will be 21 points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-seven finish in Abu Dhabi [H3].
      — If Hamilton is fourth, the difference between them will be 17 points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-five finish in Abu Dhabi [H3].
      — If Hamilton is third, the difference between them will be 14 points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-four finish in Abu Dhabi.
      — If Hamilton is second, the difference between them will be 11 points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-three finish in Abu Dhabi.
      — If Hamilton wins, the difference between them will be four points, meaning Rosberg will have to win in Abu Dhabi to be sure of the championship.

      If Rosberg finishes sixth in Brazil, he will win the championship if Hamilton is tenth or lower.
      — If Hamilton is ninth, the difference between them will be 25 points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-ten finish in Abu Dhabi [H3].
      — If Hamilton is eighth, the difference between them will be 23 points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-eight finish in Abu Dhabi [H3].
      — If Hamilton is seventh, the difference between them will be 21 points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-seven finish in Abu Dhabi [H3].
      — If Hamilton is fifth, the difference between them will be 17 points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-five finish in Abu Dhabi [H3].
      — If Hamilton is fourth, the difference between them will be 15 points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-four finish in Abu Dhabi [H3].
      — If Hamilton is third, the difference between them will be 12 points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-three finish in Abu Dhabi.
      — If Hamilton is second, the difference between them will be nine points, meaning Rosberg will be sure of the championship with a top-two finish in Abu Dhabi.
      — If Hamilton is first, the difference between them will be two points, meaning Rosberg will have to win in Abu Dhabi to be sure of the championship.

      If Rosberg finishes seventh or lower in Brazil, the championship will be decided in Abu Dhabi [H3].

      Possible countbacks:

      [H2] If Hamilton wins in Abu Dhabi and ties Rosberg on points, Hamilton will win the championship by virtue of having more second-place finishes.
      [R2] If Hamilton wins in Abu Dhabi and ties Rosberg on points, Rosberg will win the championship by virtue of having more second-place finishes.
      [H3] If Hamilton wins in Abu Dhabi and ties Rosberg on points, Hamilton will win the championship by virtue of having more third-place finishes.
      [R4] If Hamilton wins in Abu Dhabi and ties Rosberg on points, Rosberg will win the championship by virtue of having more fourth-place finishes.

      Summary:

      This is only half the job – the other half, how Hamilton can win the championship, would take even longer – but we can extrapolate Hamilton’s situation from this half. In order to control his own destiny – i.e. to be sure of winning the championship with a win in Abu Dhabi regardless of where Rosberg finishes – Hamilton needs to reduce the points gap to no more than seven points, and the most likely way of that happening is for Hamilton to win the race with Rosberg fourth or lower. Rosberg will control his destiny going into Abu Dhabi no matter what (assuming he doesn’t win the championship in Brazil), because a win there will guarantee him the championship.

      Hopefully I haven’t made any errors. :)

      1. Oh wow, quality post, thanks for this! Even if there are any errors it still paints quite the clear picture, thanks again!

      2. @estesark – If this isn’t COTD, I don’t know what is. Nice work.

        1. Thanks, but I think it’s a bit on the long side for that. :P

          1. @estesark I don’t think there is a limit. Then again, this warrants a page all of its own. Great work!

      3. man, some people have to much time on their hands

        1. I think you at least got to appreciate that there are people who are passionate about this. @ianbond001

          1. I really do have too much time on my hands though. :P

            (Or maybe not, but I procrastinate…)

  13. Hamilton also took his first pole position in Mexico, increasing the record he set last week for setting pole at the most different circuits. Hamilton’s 59 career poles have come at 24 different tracks.

    Hamilton also took his first win in Mexico and thus won at 23 different circuits so far, a record he shares with Michael Schumacher.

    1. France and India are two that have got away. :-(

  14. I feel like this race must have set some kind of record for flat-spotted tires.

  15. Jelle van der Meer
    31st October 2016, 18:00

    As last year, the Williams drivers were by far the fastest through the speed trap. Valtteri Bottas clocked 372.5kph (231.5mph)
    That is so unbelievable close to Montoya’s 372.6 (231.5mph) record – maybe next season a 1.6 liter V6 Turbo engine will finally beat a 3.0 liter V10 – that said Montoya did it Monza so can only imagine what speed he would have gotten in Mexico with that V10.

    With Vettel leading the race for quite some laps he now overtook Alain Prost in the ranking for leading most laps, he is now 4th with 2,697. MSC leads with 5,111, Senna 2nd with 2,931 and Hamilton 3rd with 2,876 so quite possible will overtake Senna before season end.

    1. I’m no engine expert but they did an analysis on Sky F1, they said that the downforce package they put on is like Monaco because of the low air density but at the same time this low density meant the old aspirated engines didn’t produce as much power because of less oxygen whereas these new power units can get power from the battery pack and the turbo so is less affected by it so can produce more power so if i’ve translated that correctly the V10 cars wouldn’t produce more power on the higher altitude, if anything they lose power and the Hybrid engines don’t lose as much.

      1. @ David Bell – that’s a very good point. The naturally aspirated engines lose about 1% power for every 100 metres of altitude. With an altitude of 2220m, that would mean they were roughly 20% or so down on power, when compared to a track like Albert Park.

        Turbocharged engines can run the compressor faster to compensate for the altitude (though there might be a regulatory or physical limit on boost) and (irrespective of altitude) the hybrid power can step in to fill out the torque holes.

  16. Wow I thought Hamilton was chipping away at Rosberg’s lead significantly but now after doing some calculations I am sad to see Hamilton will need a lot of luck to win the WDC. Rosberg needs to do poorly in the next 2 races (ideally 1 DNF, and not win).

    But, looking at the points, you start to realize how reliable Rosberg has been this year. Both drivers have very similar results, but the lack of 1 extra DNF is where Rosberg gets the majority of his lead. Malaysia was so sad :(

    Rosberg:
    9 wins
    3 second place
    2 third place
    4 non-podium points finishes
    1 DNF

    Hamilton:
    8 wins
    3 second place
    4 third place
    2 non-podium points finishes
    2 DNF

    1. but the lack of 1 extra DNF is where Rosberg gets the majority of his lead.

      Majority? Rather the entirety… Good post though, should your ideal scenario come to pass they would be extremely closely matched in both circumstance and ability. I actually kind of want Rosberg to get that DNF in Brazil so we can see the final show-down on equal footing.

      1. Good analysis! My view is that Hamilton’s worst race was Baku, where he crashed in Q3, and failed to progress in the race.

        If he had come 2nd in that race, his extra DNF matter less now.

        1. tbf lewis had a problem with his car in the race.

    2. All we need from Rosberg, is for him to come 4th in Brazil, for a “winner takes all” scenario to occur for the last race. This assumes of course that Hamilton wins in Brazil, and therefore Rosberg will “only” be 6 points in the lead, with a 7 point difference between 1st and 2nd.
      I wonder if Bernie is working on this? ;-)

    3. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
      1st November 2016, 1:15

      There have been 4 things at work against Lewis this year:

      – Clutch Issues (that cost him 64 points versus Rosberg assuming Lewis won 3 out of 4 races at the start) and maybe another 20-30 throughout the season.
      – Spain cost him 14 points – super sleaze move by Rosberg
      – Engine Reliability (20-30 points)
      – Malaysia – that was 33 points in 1 races
      – Team calls 14-20 points but Lewis has gotten them back

      So Hamilton is off by 150 points – in that light it’s hard to say that Rosberg is consistent. It’s a testament to Lewis’ ability that he’s in the hunt but does anyone expect anything less of him? Just as Nico’s car can take a grenade and continue, Lewis is in the hunt even with 150 points worth of bad luck and penalties:-)

      1. @freelittlebirds Wow. Your math is out of this world…

        1. if hamilton is so great why didnt he at least always finish second in this god mode car…

        2. @freelittlebirds If hamilton had won and Rosberg was second in all of the races of the year then the difference between them would be 147 points.

          So you need to start suspecting that there must be something fundamentally wrong in your calculations when you say that Hamilton is off by 150 points.

          1. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
            1st November 2016, 12:52

            @exeviolthor

            Do the math and consider deficits to get the actual points. If I’m P1 and P2 and the result gets reversed the difference is not 7 points as for some crazy reason most of you think, it’s 14 points. That’s how any of them count. They don’t count 7 points. They count I lost 7 and he gained 7 so I lost 14 points – I would have been 7 ahead and I’m 7 behind.

          2. @freelittlebirds Yes, but you also do this when none of them gets points such as in Spain. That is plain wrong. The numbers simply do not add up.

          3. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
            1st November 2016, 13:33

            @exeviolthor In Spain, Lewis was guaranteed to pass Nico. Nico knew it very well and knew that Lewis passing would make it impossible for him to catch him since Nico can’t pass Lewis on track after Turn 1 as we’ve seen for 75+ races in 4 years now… Nico might be many things but stupid is not one of those things. He had the number 14 written all over his eyes.

          4. @freelittlebirds I’ve been trying to explain this to quite a few people that it doesn’t work that way. It’s mathematically simply incorrect. You can only have one of the scenario’s not both so hence calculating the deficit is obsolete. You compare a L-N to a N-L for the same race but those two scenario’s can never happen at the same time, it’s always either one or the other. You either lose 7 on a 1-2 or you gain 7 on a 1-2. If P2 overtakes P1 he does not gain 14 points over P1. He went from scenario 1 where he was about to lose 7 to a scenario where he gains 7 but never both.

            On top of that (be it all wrong) you took the time to calculate all Hamilton his misfortune but you might want to do so too for Rosberg. So as @exeviolthor very cleverly pointed out if they finished 1-2 every race the difference wouldn’t even be 150 points, let alone Hamilton is missing that amount.

          5. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
            1st November 2016, 17:02

            @xtwl actually you’ve hit the nail on the head! They are mutually exclusive scenarios which is why the points are double when two drivers are competing. If I were racing and I lose a position, my loss of points from that swap is 14 points, not 7 because I find myself 7 points behind as opposed to 7 points up against the other driver. It’s the mutual exclusivity when 2 drivers compete that cause that.

            Think of it this way – I’m not just gaining 7 points from getting P1 – I’m stealing your extra 7 points in the process…

            Of course Wehrlein passing Lewis or Nico for P1 wouldn’t matter as much because the 14 point spread is immaterial but when Lewis passes Nico and Nico passes Lewis for P1 and P2, they are fighting for 14 points, not 7. It’s a big spread under the new regs.

            In essence, we’ve had double points in F1 forever between 2 drivers swapping P1 and P2.

        3. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
          1st November 2016, 12:58

          @xtwl read the explanation – below. The points differences get doubled. In the 1st 4 races, Lewis would have been 28 points ahead without clutch issues had he won all 4, 21 points if he had won 3 out of 4. Nico was 43 points ahead – that 43+21 = 64, 43+28 =

          1. @freelittlebirds – I feel like @xtwl has explained it well enough above, but just again for this little example.

            If LH wins first 4 races, and NR is second, then he is 28pts ahead, you are right. But if LH wins 3 and NR wins 1, LH is not 21 points ahead. As you see below, using relative scores between LH and NR only, it would be 14pts. 21 – 7 = 14

            Race 1: LH +7 (vs NR)
            Race 2: LH +7
            Race 3: LH +7
            Race 4: LH -7

            Given that this simple example is incorrect, perhaps you will allow for the the possibility that your assumptions and maths throughout your larger 150pt deficit are not quite accurate. Cheers.

      2. The main thing working again Lewis Hamilton this year is that his management of the clutch at the start has been worse than Nico’s, and he has nobody to blame for that by himself.

        Then there’s the Sepang DNF who is nobody’s fault. Well, it happens. Nico’s bid for the 2015 title suffered a massive hit in Monza with a similar engine failure.

        The Barcelona move? well, the Montreal move was about just as “super-sleaze”. And Barcelona was a DNF for both while Montreal was a win for Lewis and a massive loss for Nico who finished 6th after a race of damage limitation from 10th after the shunt.

        According to what was published, before the Austin race Lewis worked hard on the starts until he got it right (I’m quoting from memory). Sounds somewhat preposterous (what was he doing before that, just partying?). But had the mastered the starts from the beginning, the WDC would be his by now, Sepang and Barcelona nothwithstanding.

        1. but himself

        2. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
          1st November 2016, 12:49

          @hyoko the Montreal move was very different – you can say that Lewis didn’t let Nico through on that one as he did in Spain. Spain was automatic race ban for Nico. Very dangerous move with history behind it – Alonso called it a killer move in Bahrain.

        3. Hyoko, Montreal 2016 is just a reverse repeat of Montreal 2014. So if you consider Hamilton’s move unacceptable, so was Rosberg’s. In both cases, the stewards see nothing illegal, which is a consistent ruling.

      3. Should we also start taking virtual points away from Hamilton due to the fact that a Red Bull team call handed Hamilton race victory at Monaco? Or from either Hamilton or both Hamilton and Rosberg for a Ferrari team call at Australia?

        @freelittlebirds – This is a slippery slope of “what if” wishful thinking. But if it helps you sleep better, then more power to you. 👍

        1. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
          1st November 2016, 13:21

          @phylyp Well, it’s not wishful thinking. Monaco is a very complicated one – no logical person would ever think that Ricciardo deserved to win there. It’s a mastery of F1 and that race is a perfect example that this sport is still driver dominated and will always be driver dominated. That’s why Lewis is still in the hunt – he’s beaten Mercedes a few times this week. Good drivers don’t beat their teammates, they beat their team. Vettel beat Ferrari last weekend but Lewis is in a category of his own in terms of team schoolings. If I worked at Mercedes I would listen to Nico and take what he says seriously and give it due consideration but if Lewis spoke, I’d have a meeting to implement that ASAP so we can crush the opposition. Because I’m sure it translates to at least 1 extra wins a season.

          1. @freelittlebirds – firstly, thank you for your level-headed responses to those who’ve challenged you or opposed your viewpoint.

            Good drivers don’t beat their teammates, they beat their team.

            I’d probably just slightly rephrase that to “good drivers don’t just beat their teammates, they also beat their team”.

            Quibbles like that aside, I get the drift of what you’re saying – Lewis’s fightbacks this season have been stellar. But to translate that into an estimated points lead is what I disagree with, just as I disagree with those (not necessarily you) who will say Rosberg would make an undeserving champion for those reasons.

            Even if Hamilton were to lose the championship, it will not take away from the calibre of driver he is, or the esteem that others hold him in. In case Rosberg wins, I personally think it is possible to say that Hamilton drove supremely well without taking anything away from Rosberg or calling him undeserving.

          2. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
            1st November 2016, 17:15

            @phylyp I prefer your wording:) It’s going to be hard to say that Nico won this year. Like Lewis said, even if he loses the WDC, it doesn’t feel like he’s been beaten certainly not over the season.

      4. Clutch issues are driving error. Got it? He didn’t control the clutch correctly. By your math, 25 points in each race is what you probably believe Hamilton show have. Sorry, he is not 150 points behind where he should be, but rather he is right where he should be.

        1. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
          1st November 2016, 12:47

          @kpcart I’m not saying the clutch issues aren’t partly Lewis’s fault. Obviously it’s a specific type of issue. Lewis has 15 years of good starts.

          1. @freelittlebirds You ignore that Rosberg has also sufferred from the clutch issues (mainly in Gernamy if I remember correclty).
            Don’t get me wrong, I also think that Hamilton is better than Rosberg. It is just that I believe that it is not by such a big margin as in 2014 for example. These two push each other to the limit every race and this is a process that improves both of them.
            When the margins are so close then it is very likely that the championship goes to the luckiest of them (Rosberg so far).

          2. Good point that people tend to forgot @freelittlebirds: Hamilton has 15 years of good starts, and then he suddenly forgot how to drive?
            The thing is (and this has been explained before) the clutch is set by the team before the car leaves the pits on sunday. Once the car got out, they can’t change the setting until the race starts. It’s just a guess work for the engineers. You can train all you want, if the setting is bad, you’ll start poorly.
            Verstappen said so when he had a string of three consecutives bad starts: the team worked hard to fix the issue with his clutch. And then everything was OK. But this got mostly unnoticed whereas people are bragging about Hamilton not being able to drive.

  17. When jenson button completed his 28th lap, it means that in his F1 career he has now raced the equivalent of twice around the globe

    1. I believe thats nearly a fifth of the way from Earth to the Moon, such a pointless stat but hey i knew it for some reason haha

    2. Jenson Button Moon

  18. Tracks at which Hamilton has raced but never scored pole: Baku, Istanbul, Magny Cours, New Delhi, Suzuka.

    Tracks at which Hamilton has raced but never won: Baku, Interlagos, Magny Cours, New Delhi, Valencia, Yeongam.

    18th pole for Mercedes this season – equals Red Bull in 2011 and Mercedes in 2014 & 2015.

    18th front-row start for Rosberg this season – equals Vettel in 2011 and Hamilton in 2015.

    Both Hamilton and Rosberg have managed fewer podiums from the first 19 races of this season than they managed in the whole 19 races of either 2014 or 2015.

    Ricciardo has scored more points in 2016 than he managed in 2014, despite 2 fewer victories.

    Thanks to magnetimarelli.com, formula1.com and statsf1.com for some of these.

  19. Nico should take advantage and attack in Interlagos since it is Hamilton’s worst track: best finishing position, 2; average finishing position, 7.78; average finishing position compared to Rosberg since they are teammates, 3 vs 1.34; number of times he has lost to his teammate in the race, 7/9 -he has only beat Kovalainen so far-.

  20. Great post by @estesark above, but it can be simplified a little considering that seemingly Lewis Hamilton can’t win at Interlagos (maybe he isn’t into samba or something).

    So Lewis can be 2nd at best, it means that whatever Nico does, he will still be ahead after Interlagos (by only 1 point if Lewis is 2nd and Nico does not score but still on top). Of course if Nico wins the WDC is his and it’s over.

    Now, to keep it simple there are two ways of being ahead, just ahead or dominantly ahead (meaning that the other guy can win the rest of the races and still lose the WDC. At present, Nico is dominantly ahead).

    So:
    1) if Lewis is second, Nico needs to be 1st to win, or 2nd-6th to dominate; if he is 7th or worse he is simply ahead.
    2) if Lewis is 3rd, Nico needs to be 1st to win, or 2nd-8th to dominate; if he is 9th or worse he is simply ahead.
    3) if Lewis is 4th, Nico needs to be 1st to win, or 2nd-10th to dominate; if he does not score he is simply ahead.
    4) if Lewis is 5th, Nico needs to be 1st-2nd to win, else he dominates
    5) if Lewis is 6th or 7th, Nico needs a podium to win, else he dominates
    6) if Lewis is 8th, Nico needs a top four to win, else he dominates
    7) if Lewis is 9th, Nico needs a top five to win, else he dominates
    8) if Lewis is 10th or worse, Nico needs a top 6 to win, else he dominates.

    Of course Lewis could break his duck and win at Interlagos. Nico then needs a podium position to keep his dominance, a 4th-6th to keep simply ahead, a 7th gets him a tie (kind of a false tie because the countback would favor Lewis, with same wins and seconds but more thirds) and 8th or worse gets him simply behind Lewis (never dominantly behind, a win in Abu Dabhi would make him WDC in any case).

    1. Why the false tie matters, if they can’t both finish in the same position in Abu Dabhi? Well, they can both score 0. In that case (with Lewis 1st and Nico 7th in Brazil) Lewis wins on countback.

  21. Neglecting the means were all very convenient as long as hamilton won the championship trophy. Funny how it can bite you back isn’t it? Btw others already know, that’s how it has always worked.

  22. Are we going to ignore Rosberg taking penalties for anything and everything while Hamilton gets to cut corners to keep winning races? Before anyone says it’s payback for some race from another year (Canada or something else), how many times does Rosberg have to pay back for each infraction unlike his teammate too…

  23. Interesting list, thanks as always. I still recall the day Schumacher broke Prost’s record. It’s quite amazing that Hamilton has now equalled the great Frenchman.

    I was a bit surprised by the suggestion that Ricciardo could see his trophy as “recompense for the 2014 Australian Grand Prix” given how Red Bull blatantly cheated at that race. Ricciardo might not have been personally responsible, but that was about as justified a disqualification as they come.

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