Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes, Bahrain International Circuit, 2018

Will Hamilton or Verstappen be tempted to one-stop?

2018 Bahrain Grand Prix pre-race analysis

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Ferrari swept the front row of the grid for the Bahrain Grand Prix and is gunning for a maximum haul of points in Sunday’s race. Can anyone stop them?

“On pure pace the two Ferraris are clearly the favourites,” reckons Mercedes executive director Toto Wolff.” His cars should occupy the two spaces behind them but Lewis Hamilton’s gearbox change penalty means Valtteri Bottas is joined by Daniel Ricciardo on row two.

“Daniel is an extremely strong racer and I can see him in the mix therem” Wolff predicted. “And it’s going to be interesting to see how Valtteri is able to get off the line and drive hard, and Lewis coming back. But from pure pace I would say the Ferrari is the fastest car here in Bahrain.”

Max Verstappen, Red Bull, Bahrain International Circuit, 2018
Bahrain Grand Prix qualifying in pictures
Ferrari had a clear edge over Mercedes on the super-soft tyre. Hamilton watched Sebastian Vettel’s pole position lap closely and noted how well balanced the SF71-H seemed.

“Turn one, turn two was much quicker than mine,” said Hamilton. “The car was just obviously very stable.”

“Similar pace turn six and seven, then turn eight I think he was just really able to stop the car and get back on the power very strong there. Very clean through turn 10, turn 11 was normal. It didn’t look like anything spectacular, anything like that, it was a very clean lap. There were a couple of areas that they were quite a bit stronger than us, I think.”

However Hamilton showed very good pace on the soft tyre, with which he was close to Vettel’s performance in Q2. Hamilton will start the race on the soft tyres, having run them in Q2 in anticipation of his penalty.

Unusually the third tyre compound, the medium, also looks like a reasonably possibility for the race. A two-stop strategy is expected to be the fastest strategy for those at the sharp end, but could Hamilton try a one-stop soft-medium strategy?

This is likely to depend on how effectively he can make his way past traffic early in the race. If he can get in free air and run long on his softs then staying out could make sense, particularly as he hasn’t been able to stockpile any unused super-softs.

Ptherwise the temptation to wild the ‘undercut’ to gain positions will be strong. The high degradation is likely to make the effect of the ‘undercut’ strong.

Ricciardo believes a one-stop strategy is “possible, I’m just not sure it’s quicker.” However his team mate Max Verstappen, who like Hamilton is also starting ‘out of position’ following his Q1 crash, could try it.

“I think he definitely can get there on distance, it’s just whether it’s quick,” said Ricciardo. “On tyre life I think he can do it, and I think he will try.”

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Qualifying times in full

Driver Car Q1

Q2 (vs Q1)

Q3 (vs Q2)
1 Sebastian Vettel Ferrari 1’29.060 1’28.341 (-0.719) 1’27.958 (-0.383)
2 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari 1’28.951 1’28.515 (-0.436) 1’28.101 (-0.414)
3 Valtteri Bottas Mercedes 1’29.275 1’28.794 (-0.481) 1’28.124 (-0.670)
4 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 1’29.396 1’28.458 (-0.938) 1’28.220 (-0.238)
5 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull 1’29.552 1’28.962 (-0.590) 1’28.398 (-0.564)
6 Pierre Gasly Toro Rosso 1’30.121 1’29.836 (-0.285) 1’29.329 (-0.507)
7 Kevin Magnussen Haas 1’29.594 1’29.623 (+0.029) 1’29.358 (-0.265)
8 Nico Hulkenberg Renault 1’30.260 1’29.187 (-1.073) 1’29.570 (+0.383)
9 Esteban Ocon Force India 1’30.338 1’30.009 (-0.329) 1’29.874 (-0.135)
10 Carlos Sainz Jnr Renault 1’29.893 1’29.802 (-0.091) 1’29.986 (+0.184)
11 Brendon Hartley Toro Rosso 1’30.412 1’30.105 (-0.307)
12 Sergio Perez Force India 1’30.218 1’30.156 (-0.062)
13 Fernando Alonso McLaren 1’30.530 1’30.212 (-0.318)
14 Stoffel Vandoorne McLaren 1’30.479 1’30.525 (+0.046)
15 Max Verstappen Red Bull 1’29.374
16 Romain Grosjean Haas 1’30.530
17 Marcus Ericsson Sauber 1’31.063
18 Sergey Sirotkin Williams 1’31.414
19 Charles Leclerc Sauber 1’31.420
20 Lance Stroll Williams 1’31.503

Sector times

Driver Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3
Sebastian Vettel 27.989 (1) 37.893 (3) 22.076 (2)
Kimi Raikkonen 28.047 (3) 37.859 (1) 22.121 (4)
Valtteri Bottas 28.014 (2) 37.980 (4) 22.129 (5)
Lewis Hamilton 28.081 (4) 37.990 (5) 22.053 (1)
Daniel Ricciardo 28.275 (5) 37.877 (2) 22.081 (3)
Pierre Gasly 28.413 (6) 38.471 (9) 22.445 (9)
Kevin Magnussen 28.447 (7) 38.415 (8) 22.384 (8)
Nico Hulkenberg 28.582 (10) 38.362 (6) 22.243 (6)
Esteban Ocon 28.481 (8) 38.691 (12) 22.619 (14)
Carlos Sainz Jnr 28.595 (11) 38.686 (11) 22.453 (10)
Brendon Hartley 28.681 (12) 38.918 (16) 22.476 (11)
Sergio Perez 28.564 (9) 38.855 (14) 22.642 (15)
Fernando Alonso 28.858 (15) 38.640 (10) 22.609 (13)
Stoffel Vandoorne 28.998 (17) 38.791 (13) 22.570 (12)
Max Verstappen 28.732 (13) 38.391 (7) 22.251 (7)
Romain Grosjean 28.782 (14) 38.903 (15) 22.845 (18)
Marcus Ericsson 28.878 (16) 39.110 (17) 22.854 (19)
Sergey Sirotkin 29.056 (18) 39.454 (19) 22.838 (17)
Charles Leclerc 29.127 (20) 39.273 (18) 22.743 (16)
Lance Stroll 29.107 (19) 39.506 (20) 22.890 (20)

Speed trap

Pos Driver Car Engine Speed (kph/mph) Gap
1 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari Ferrari 327.1 (203.3)
2 Esteban Ocon Force India Mercedes 326.5 (202.9) -0.6
3 Charles Leclerc Sauber Ferrari 326.5 (202.9) -0.6
4 Sergio Perez Force India Mercedes 326.0 (202.6) -1.1
5 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes Mercedes 325.3 (202.1) -1.8
6 Romain Grosjean Haas Ferrari 324.7 (201.8) -2.4
7 Valtteri Bottas Mercedes Mercedes 324.0 (201.3) -3.1
8 Marcus Ericsson Sauber Ferrari 323.1 (200.8) -4.0
9 Sebastian Vettel Ferrari Ferrari 322.8 (200.6) -4.3
10 Pierre Gasly Toro Rosso Honda 322.5 (200.4) -4.6
11 Kevin Magnussen Haas Ferrari 322.0 (200.1) -5.1
12 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull TAG Heuer 320.7 (199.3) -6.4
13 Carlos Sainz Jnr Renault Renault 320.6 (199.2) -6.5
14 Brendon Hartley Toro Rosso Honda 320.4 (199.1) -6.7
15 Lance Stroll Williams Mercedes 320.3 (199.0) -6.8
16 Sergey Sirotkin Williams Mercedes 319.2 (198.3) -7.9
17 Nico Hulkenberg Renault Renault 318.2 (197.7) -8.9
18 Fernando Alonso McLaren Renault 314.2 (195.2) -12.9
19 Max Verstappen Red Bull TAG Heuer 314.0 (195.1) -13.1
20 Stoffel Vandoorne McLaren Renault 310.7 (193.1) -16.4

Drivers’ remaining tyres

Driver Team Medium Soft Super-soft
New Used New Used New Used
Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 1 0 1 1 0 3
Valtteri Bottas Mercedes 1 0 1 1 0 3
Sebastian Vettel Ferrari 0 1 1 1 1 2
Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari 0 1 1 1 1 2
Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull 0 1 1 0 1 3
Max Verstappen Red Bull 0 1 1 0 4 1
Sergio Perez Force India 1 0 1 0 1 4
Esteban Ocon Force India 1 0 1 0 0 4
Lance Stroll Williams 1 0 2 0 2 2
Sergey Sirotkin Williams 1 0 2 0 2 2
Carlos Sainz Jnr Renault 1 0 1 0 0 4
Nico Hulkenberg Renault 1 0 1 0 0 4
Pierre Gasly Toro Rosso 0 1 1 0 0 4
Brendon Hartley Toro Rosso 0 1 1 0 1 4
Romain Grosjean Haas 1 0 1 0 3 2
Kevin Magnussen Haas 1 0 1 0 0 4
Fernando Alonso McLaren 1 0 1 0 1 4
Stoffel Vandoorne McLaren 1 0 1 0 1 4
Marcus Ericsson Sauber 1 0 1 0 2 3
Charles Leclerc Sauber 1 0 1 0 2 3

Over to you

Can Ferrari convert their front row lock-out into a one-two? Will overtaking prove easier than it did in Melbourne? And who will lead the midfield fight?

Share your views on the Bahrain Grand Prix in the comments.

Quotes: Dieter Rencken

2018 Bahrain Grand Prix

Browse all 2018 Bahrain Grand Prix articles

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Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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17 comments on “Will Hamilton or Verstappen be tempted to one-stop?”

  1. Be interested to see RBs race pace, not sure if Ric has the same power spike issues, though l am sure he wouldnt use that excuse anyway.

    1. RIC told his car doesn’t have this issue

      1. Bc it isn’t an issue at all.

  2. Computer says “no”.

  3. The lack of top speed shown by McLaren suggests a serious problem with their aero-package or less likely their suspension. STR on the other hand either have a brilliant chassis or plenty of power from their HONDA PU.

    1. Honda has been making plenty of power since last season. Go look at Alonso on the straights at Abu Dhabi. They weren’t suffering at all despite the whinging and finger-pointing. Pretty soon they’ll have run out of others to blame and it’s going to become very apparent that McLaren hasn’t built a decent car in years. Or at least that seems to the story that’s unfolding…

  4. Of course Ham will one stop. Max? probably.

    1. Max does have 4 sets of new super-softs. Might try to burn through a couple of them, pitting earlier and getting out of phase with the mid-field and trying to run as much as possible in clean air.

      Will be interesting to watch.

      1. Yes. Medium was not gonna overheat much, Ham only need a perfect pit window for clear air.

        If Red Bull could fix their party mode algorithm overnight, Max could deploy extra 150 hp on his way up on that supersofts.

    2. @peartree

      The race does look set doesn’t it? Ferrari’s can go SS if they want to, RBR will have trouble to overtake, Lewis and Bottas have no fresh SS.
      The only three that can cause trouble are Charlie with his VSC shenanigans or a ridiculous show of dominance of Bottas. Or…. it turns out the disturbance is way too much and even on the main straight only 10 overtakes take place.

  5. Can Ferrari convert their front row lock-out into a one-two? Pace-wise, yes, they can
    Will overtaking prove easier than it did in Melbourne? Yes
    And who will lead the midfield fight? Toro Rosso or Renault.

  6. The big questions are:
    1. Can Kimi overtake Seb at the start? Judging from Seb’s struggles with the new car and from his significantly lower top speed, he clearly sacrificed straight line speed for corner stability. If Kimi gets one on him at the start, it’ll be difficult for Seb to react except with an overcut.
    2. Will Lewis nail his first stint to emerge in the top 4 after the pits, with the Super Softs? This will make him a real danger.
    3. How will the rookies fair in the top 10? Particularly looking forward to Gasly and Ocon.
    4. Will McLaren show up!

    1. @makana

      Judging from Seb’s struggles with the new car and from his significantly lower top speed, he clearly sacrificed straight line speed for corner stability.

      Sorry to burst your bubble, but you’re over-interpreting one of the least telling stats of an F1 weekend. The difference between Räikkönen and Vettel was not ‘significant’, it was 4.3 kph – which, on a long straight like the one in Sakhir, is most likely attributable to a slight slipstream.
      The other speed traps (at the end of each sector) tell an entirely different story: Vettel was 2.5 kph faster on the finish line, 1.1 kph faster at the end of sector 1, and just 0.8 kph slower at the end of sector 2. All these speed differences are far, far below any significance threshold and best explained as very minor variations caused by external factors (mostly gusts of wind and perturbations/slipstreams by other cars) that indicate identical setups.

  7. “Will Hamilton or Verstappen be tempted to one-stop?”

    How well are their computer programs working this weekend?
    Hamilton didn’t even want to stop when he did in the last race. Would be great if you could take away the banks of computers and literally let the drivers do what they want. The results would be as unpredictable as those rainy races we pray for.

    ‘Lewis, computer says no’

  8. Andre Furtado
    8th April 2018, 14:11

    Fastest strategies in Bahrain
    With the amount of tyre degradation that we expect for the race, the thoretical quickest pit-stop
    strategies predicted by Pirelli are as follow

    THE QUICKEST
    TWO-STOPPER: 1 stint on supersoft for 15 laps + 2 stints on soft (21+21 laps)

    SECOND QUICKEST
    TWO-STOPPER: 2 stints on supersoft (17+17 laps) + 1 stint on soft to the flag
    and
    ONE-STOPPER: 1 stint on supersoft for 24 laps + 1 stint on soft to the flag (but very long stints)

    THIRD QUICKEST

    ONE-STOPPER:1 stint on soft for 32 laps + 1 stint on medium to the flag
    Different permutations of compound usage within each strategy are possible.

  9. From ESPN

    Fastest strategies in Bahrain
    With the amount of tyre degradation that we expect for the race, the thoretical quickest pit-stop
    strategies predicted by Pirelli are as follow

    THE QUICKEST
    TWO-STOPPER: 1 stint on supersoft for 15 laps + 2 stints on soft (21+21 laps)

    SECOND QUICKEST
    TWO-STOPPER: 2 stints on supersoft (17+17 laps) + 1 stint on soft to the flag
    and
    ONE-STOPPER: 1 stint on supersoft for 24 laps + 1 stint on soft to the flag (but very long stints)

    THIRD QUICKEST

    ONE-STOPPER:1 stint on soft for 32 laps + 1 stint on medium to the flag
    Different permutations of compound usage within each strategy are possible.

  10. I predict another boring race. Ferrari have too much pace here to be challenged so it’ll be a Sunday cruise for Vettel. Kimi will follow him home with Bottas 3rd. I expect Ricciardo to be close to Bottas throughout the race but just not quick enough to make a pass stick. Hamilton will be in no mans land as he’s too quick to not finish 5th but not fast enough to catch the podium race. Strategy is irrelevant for him as with either he will only end up 5th.

Comments are closed.