Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes, Bahrain International Circuit, 2018

Mercedes thought they would win, Wolff admits

2018 Bahrain Grand Prix

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Mercedes believed they were set to win the Bahrain Grand Prix after changing their strategy to put Ferrari under pressure.

The team switched from a two-stop to a one-stop strategy during the race, putting Valtteri Bottas onto the medium tyres. Once he got within range of Sebastian Vettel, who was scheduled to pit again, Mercedes believed it was more than likely they would win.

“I think we had won the race already after coming out on the medium behind Sebastian with a gap that we were able to close down, knowing that they would either need to stop once again or they would run out of tyre if we were to push them,” said the team’s executive director Toto Wolff.

Max Verstappen, Lewis Hamilton, Bahrain International Circuit, 2018
Bahrain Grand Prix in pictures
“This was the moment where I would say the 90% probability was on us winning. And we lost that.”

Wolff said the team “realised pretty early that the medium was a good tyre” after noting how quick Fernando Alonso was on it.

“We decided to go for it, see how it would be on our cars, still with the option of stopping twice. Valtteri immediately had very good pace so it was clear we could make it to the end on the medium.”

Ferrari took a “big risk” by leaving Vettel out on his soft tyres, according to Wolff.

“There was still a chance Ferrari wouldn’t do the same. This is taking big risks because at the end Vettel’s car was probably two seconds slower than Valtteri so if it would have been one or two laps later he would have lost the race.

“But ‘would be’ is not what counts, what counts is the race result and Sebastoian and Ferrari won it very deserved. They adapted to the situation.”

Wolff admitted he was frustrated Bottas was unable to pass Vettel on the track despite closing within DRS range of the Ferrari on the final lap.

“It is frustrating that it wasn’t enough, there wasn’t a move,” he said. “But it’s very unfair to say because these cars are difficult to overtake and Sebastian is a great driver.”

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Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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27 comments on “Mercedes thought they would win, Wolff admits”

  1. Califormula1fan
    8th April 2018, 20:29

    It seemed that Bottas was racing to not lose. Clearly, his strategy failed to gain victory, but even from just following the gaps/times on the F1 app, it seemed he should have pushed harder to around lap 42-47 to strike around 50-52; Seb’s tires were going to run out.

    Vettel uses the field very effectively, conserving his rubber and picking his opportunities. It never seemed that Bottas was in control of the race.

    I’m sure that Ferrari won’t always best Mercedes, but Vettel drove to win today: Bottas needs to get a winning disposition soon, or he’might be back at Williams next year.

    1. he should have pushed harder to around lap 42-47

      That’s not Bottas’ fault, it’s the pit wall that instructs drivers when to push and what the lap target is. However, if you say Bottas wasn’t aggressive enough in making a move on Vettel, well that is definitely down to the driver.

  2. This could be the beginning of the end for Bottas at Mercedes? Maybe this performance shows to Mercedes the need to have someone that bit quicker, or rather, riskier and less likely to make mistakes. Its doubtful Ocon will be able to show off his talent in the Force India, so maybe Bottas’s performance is a positive for Ricciardo to take from today?

    1. @chr1sf1 What are you talking about? I think Bottas drove a great race. Ferrari were faster all weekend, yet he came very close to beating Vettel. Strategy helped of course, but his good start was very important to prevent Ferrari from dominating this race. His strong tyre management forced Ferrari to pit their drivers early, which was clearly disadvantageous later in the race.

    2. Ben Rowe (@thegianthogweed)
      8th April 2018, 20:55

      Bottas hardly ever makes big mistakes. He’s not gone 2 full years without collecting a single penalty point. I don’t think any other driver who has been on the grid over all this time has avoided getting any. Bottas also has only been responsible for his own retirement once in his entire career. That wasn’t even in the race. It was last weekend in qualifying. He also hasn’t been deemed responsible for anyone elses retirement. He makes mistakes every now and then, but only very small ones. Given where we expected Ferrari to be this weekend, Bottas was incredibly close in qualifying and the race. Also beating his team mate in qualifying. Bottas also gained a place passing a better car by the first corner which was crucial. That was not a bad weekend at all by Bottas. The team should have let him push hard just a bit sooner.

      1. Bottas was responsible for Raikkonen and Verstappen’s double retirement in Spain last year and was also partially responsible for Raikkonen retiring in Baku last year. I agree with most of what you say but to claim Bottas hasn’t been responsible for anyone else retiring is a bit disingenuous.

        1. Ben Rowe (@thegianthogweed)
          9th April 2018, 14:54

          Bottas was not at all responsible for 2 force indias colliding together and making Kimi retire… That incident with kimi as classed as a 50 – 50. They didn’t blame one driver more than the other.

          And in Spain, it was classed as a racing incident and the driver who you believe was at fault got away with it. From the rules that year, They said if one driver was predominantly to blame, they would be punished. He was the only one to survive and there was no penalty. So my point still is there. From the stewards verdicts, Bottas has never been responsible for his own or anyone elses retirement in the race in his entire f1 career.

      2. Lol, I was trying to think when he was responsible for his own retirement, then you said it wasn’t even in the race, it’s not a retirement, it’s a mistake in qualifying, he scored points in the race!

    3. @chr1sf1 I agree with you. Ricciardo to Merc. Especially as Ham may retire.

  3. Agreed, they really should have taken this win. As well as in Australia.

    If they actually wanted to pressure Vettel then why didn’t they tell Bottas to get on with it? Why let both of them coast to the end of the race and then try some half hearted attempt on the last lap?

    Hamilton started 20 seconds behind and was closing fast. Bottas should have been doing the same, closing up right on Vettel’s tail for the last 10 laps. Hounding him to submission or destruction.

    When will they learn that you shouldn’t wait for the last lap to close up. That has NEVER worked and then we get this lamenting on how they needed just one lap more to overtake. How about you start your whole attack a lap or some sooner? Geez.

    Why do they keep relying on those damned computers instead of learning from their mistakes? Hamilton has told them several times he was not waiting till the end. Mercedes told him to wait till the end, Hamilton ignored them, went full attack right away and he DID get the position on several of those occasions.

    1. @patrickl I agree, I tend to think Ferrari’s racing instinct is giving them an edge, even if it is sometimes high risk.

    2. This is what I have been saying all along since the race ended. Why Bottas did not close the gap when knowing that the Medium tyres barely degrade and that Lewis was able to finish 5 seconds within him after being down at least 10 seconds. Plus, by Valterri being conservative, it allowed Seb to be more conservative and preserve his tyres. Once Valterri got the message that Vettel was going to the end, and I am sure James Vowles also gave him the message that was given to Lewis, he should have been closing down Seb at least. I dont care how much but he should have been closing him down. Not when the last lapped car gets out of the way. I get that traffic played a big role in this, but he should have been attacking like Lewis.

      1. @krichelle I know right. You sit there watching this nonsense and you are thinking “why on earth is nothing happening? Why is bottas just lapping so slow while Hamilton is flying”.

        They completely killed the race finale too since you knew if they let Vettel coast along he would make it the full distance.

        1. Surely a part of that is also due to hamilton being the faster driver of mercedes.

    3. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
      8th April 2018, 23:31

      Hmm, are you suggesting that Bottas should have closed the distance earlier and pushed Vettel until his tyres went off the cliff as opposed to waiting for that to happen?

      That probably would have been the best strategy. If nothing else, Lewis could have closed into both and put even more pressure.

    4. it is the second race in a row Mercedes loses because they are looking at a computer instead of looking at the track.
      They will do great when that autonomous series comes along

  4. As far as I could tell (my TV coverage talks over the radio messages), Bottas/Mercedes only reacted and tried to catch Vettel when Ferrari announced they were staying out. Which seemed to me 4-5 laps too late. If so, that’s the second race in succession they’ve lost because they were using their ‘lounge party’ mode rather than racing flat out. All seems a bit drowsy at Mercedes just now.

    1. @david-br They told Hamilton (or perhaps Bottas) well before that that they thought Vettel’s tyres would go off the cliff. So they were anticipating this much earlier. They could have forced the issue, but instead only Hamilton was flying and Bottas was just holding station (until it was too late).

      Perhaps Hamilton simply ignored Mercedes’ advice again (since they get it wrong so often) and Bottas was obeying orders to hold station and let Vettel coast till the end.

      1. @patrickl Like I said, coverage here was a bit confusing, but I got the impression Bottas started to reel Vettel in only after they told him Vettel was going to the end. Before that they were asking both Mercedes drivers to conserve their tires so they could defend if Vettel swapped and came back at them. Not sure if I see the logic in that, though, since pushing harder would mean a bigger gap for Vettel to make up if he did change, or push his tires more and maybe (or almost certainly) get past him if he didn’t.

    2. I agree – it really seemed that Mercedes we’re reluctant to ask Bottas to lean on the tyres and close the gap, possibly because they’d seen other teams using the same strategy forced to pit because their mediums had destroyed themselves.

      I think they just hoped Vettel’s were going to fall off completely and weren’t prepared to lose 2nd if they got it wrong and had to Pit.

      Either that or we missed a whole heap of radio traffic from the Pit wall to Bottas.

  5. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
    8th April 2018, 23:04

    Well, they probably should have won – no one expected the soft to last that long especially when Vettel was on a 2 stop strategy and only switched after Raikonnen had a problem…

    I have to give it to Vettel – he’s very lucky:)

    1. lucky is to have a car rammed to the side of you and still finish P3

  6. George Milabo
    9th April 2018, 1:56

    I have nothing against hope but hoping that vettel’s tires giving in was not a guaranty for a race win for mercedes. The giving in never happened so did bottas’ win. In fairness to valtierre, the comment on his lack of killer instinct is unfounded and unfair.

  7. Rosberg would have slaughtered Vettel.

    Mercedes needs a proper driver. Time to sign Daniel Ricciardo up for next season before Ferrari does.

    1. They knew what they were getting by signing him… Nico was one step bellow Lewis but Bottas man… I like the guy, I just think he is hurting them at the moment.

  8. I really can’t understand why Bottas left it so late to start attacking. It seemed like Mercedes had played a blinder – either Ferrari had to pit, which would immediately lose the race, or Vettel would be out of grip well before the end. Perhaps it was complacency, but it felt like Bottas sat there with a 6 second gap for maybe ten laps when he should have been trying to put Vettel under pressure. Perhaps they hadn’t figured on Vettel staying out, but it seemed obvious that this was the only viable option for Ferrari, and I’m sure they were at least communicating that to Hamilton.

    Very strange. And should mention the excellent driving under pressure by Vettel to keep the car more or less on the track and maintain a decent gap. Perhaps his pace at the end just took them by surprise and by the time Bottas realised he wasn’t catching quickly enough, it was too late. With five laps to go he needed to catch Vettel at over a second per lap. It suddenly seemed like it wasn’t enough.

  9. Apart from Max, has any Driver done more to harm their stock other than Bottas? Leclerc maybe but he’s still a rookie. And even for Max, he has a contract through 2020 so the pressure on him isn’t as much as it is on Bottas(but we all know RBR can drop you in a second, highly doubt they do it with Max Though)?

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