Max Verstappen, Red Bull, Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, 2018

How Red Bull could go aggressive in pursuit of Canada win

2018 Canadian Grand Prix pre-race analysis

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While Daniel Ricciardo’s pole position in Monaco was widely expected, Max Verstappen’s third place on the grid in Canada is arguably even better news for Red Bull.

It’s only the second time this year they’ve got a car inside the top three in qualifying, and they’ve done it on a track where their less powerful engine puts them at a greater disadvantage.

Can Verstappen, using his hyper-soft tyres, take the fight to front row occupants Sebastian Vettel and Valtteri Bottas, who will start on the ultra-softs?

Lewis Hamilton, who Verstappen shares the second row with, doubts the advantage of being on softer rubber will be enough on its own to carry Verstappen into the lead.

“Ferraris are consistently quickest or second-quickest starters so far this year and Red Bull have not been as good as them,” he said. “But I’m sure he’ll give it everything, as we know he always does. I hope he gives it everything. And I hope that me and Valtteri will be there to maximise the points.”

But last year Verstappen didn’t need the advantage of softer tyres to make a stunning getaway which propelled him from fifth to second.

How Vettel plays the start will be crucial. The combination of opening corners at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve makes it easy for the pole sitter to compromise the driver who starts alongside him. He may view Verstappen as a potentially useful buffer to the Mercedes in the opening laps, in which case Bottas can expect a squeeze from the Ferrari on the outside of turn one.

After that, which driver is on the best strategy? As usual the difficulty of overtaking will play an important role.

“Here is different compared to Monaco with some places where it’s easier to overtake,” said Pirelli’s sporting director Mario Isola. “[In] Monaco we know it’s very difficult to overtake, that’s why everyone was trying a one-stop race.”

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However while Montreal’s long straights give the impression of a circuit where overtaking is easy, that wasn’t really the case last year with the high-downforce cars. Data from Mercedes indicates there was as many passes in this race last year as there was at the Circuit de Catalunya, a track which is notorious for being difficult to pass on.

The third DRS zone added to the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve this weekend may help matters. But even so the likes of Sergio Perez, who is starting on hyper-soft tyres, considers it “critical” to avoid making more than one pit stop.

One factor which could work against Red Bull is that the race day temperature looks likely to be higher than was expected earlier in the week. The hyper-soft tyres they will start on have performed better in cooler conditions, whereas the warmth should help Ferrari and Mercedes ‘switch on’ their ultra-softs.

Could Red Bull attempt a one-stop strategy using the ultra-softs for the second stint? Pirelli hasn’t indicated this as a realistic strategy for the race. But if Red Bull see a chance to get a car into the lead this way, surely they will give it a try?

The high possibility of a Safety Car at this track could make it worth exploring such a radical strategy. And Pirelli tends to under-estimate how far drivers will push their tyres.

When Vettel used an aggressive ‘plan D’ strategy of running the two softest tyres on a one-stop strategy in Bahrain, his second stint was six laps longer than Pirelli suggested would be possible. With the hyper-softs predicted to last up to 15 laps at the start, we’ll find out early on if this is what they have in mind.

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Qualifying times in full

Driver Car Q1

Q2 (vs Q1)

Q3 (vs Q2)
1 Sebastian Vettel Ferrari 1’11.710 1’11.524 (-0.186) 1’10.764 (-0.760)
2 Valtteri Bottas Mercedes 1’11.950 1’11.514 (-0.436) 1’10.857 (-0.657)
3 Max Verstappen Red Bull 1’12.008 1’11.472 (-0.536) 1’10.937 (-0.535)
4 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 1’11.835 1’11.740 (-0.095) 1’10.996 (-0.744)
5 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari 1’11.725 1’11.620 (-0.105) 1’11.095 (-0.525)
6 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull 1’12.459 1’11.434 (-1.025) 1’11.116 (-0.318)
7 Nico Hulkenberg Renault 1’12.795 1’11.916 (-0.879) 1’11.973 (+0.057)
8 Esteban Ocon Force India 1’12.577 1’12.141 (-0.436) 1’12.084 (-0.057)
9 Carlos Sainz Jnr Renault 1’12.689 1’12.097 (-0.592) 1’12.168 (+0.071)
10 Sergio Perez Force India 1’12.702 1’12.395 (-0.307) 1’12.671 (+0.276)
11 Kevin Magnussen Haas 1’12.680 1’12.606 (-0.074)
12 Brendon Hartley Toro Rosso 1’12.587 1’12.635 (+0.048)
13 Charles Leclerc Sauber 1’12.945 1’12.661 (-0.284)
14 Fernando Alonso McLaren 1’12.979 1’12.856 (-0.123)
15 Stoffel Vandoorne McLaren 1’12.998 1’12.865 (-0.133)
16 Pierre Gasly Toro Rosso 1’13.047
17 Lance Stroll Williams 1’13.590
18 Sergey Sirotkin Williams 1’13.643
19 Marcus Ericsson Sauber 1’14.593
20 Romain Grosjean Haas

Sector times

Driver Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3
Sebastian Vettel 19.480 (4) 22.626 (1) 28.570 (1)
Valtteri Bottas 19.423 (2) 22.693 (4) 28.689 (2)
Max Verstappen 19.420 (1) 22.695 (5) 28.802 (4)
Lewis Hamilton 19.430 (3) 22.696 (6) 28.869 (5)
Kimi Raikkonen 19.638 (6) 22.671 (2) 28.745 (3)
Daniel Ricciardo 19.523 (5) 22.672 (3) 28.921 (6)
Nico Hulkenberg 19.922 (8) 22.954 (8) 28.924 (7)
Esteban Ocon 19.930 (9) 23.110 (10) 28.946 (8)
Carlos Sainz Jnr 19.901 (7) 22.951 (7) 29.159 (11)
Sergio Perez 19.934 (10) 23.127 (11) 29.199 (12)
Kevin Magnussen 20.024 (13) 23.095 (9) 29.279 (13)
Brendon Hartley 20.020 (12) 23.288 (12) 29.135 (10)
Charles Leclerc 20.060 (14) 23.410 (15) 29.131 (9)
Fernando Alonso 20.015 (11) 23.353 (14) 29.376 (15)
Stoffel Vandoorne 20.152 (15) 23.346 (13) 29.367 (14)
Pierre Gasly 20.219 (16) 23.427 (16) 29.386 (16)
Lance Stroll 20.332 (18) 23.471 (17) 29.730 (18)
Sergey Sirotkin 20.281 (17) 23.624 (18) 29.598 (17)
Marcus Ericsson 20.593 (19) 23.843 (19) 29.960 (19)
Romain Grosjean

Speed trap

Pos Driver Car Engine Speed (kph/mph) Gap
1 Charles Leclerc Sauber Ferrari 329.3 (204.6)
2 Sergio Perez Force India Mercedes 328.1 (203.9) -1.2
3 Esteban Ocon Force India Mercedes 327.0 (203.2) -2.3
4 Sebastian Vettel Ferrari Ferrari 326.4 (202.8) -2.9
5 Nico Hulkenberg Renault Renault 326.2 (202.7) -3.1
6 Valtteri Bottas Mercedes Mercedes 326.2 (202.7) -3.1
7 Carlos Sainz Jnr Renault Renault 325.7 (202.4) -3.6
8 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari Ferrari 325.6 (202.3) -3.7
9 Kevin Magnussen Haas Ferrari 325.4 (202.2) -3.9
10 Brendon Hartley Toro Rosso Honda 325.3 (202.1) -4.0
11 Pierre Gasly Toro Rosso Honda 325.3 (202.1) -4.0
12 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull TAG Heuer 324.6 (201.7) -4.7
13 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes Mercedes 324.5 (201.6) -4.8
14 Max Verstappen Red Bull TAG Heuer 324.1 (201.4) -5.2
15 Sergey Sirotkin Williams Mercedes 323.5 (201.0) -5.8
16 Fernando Alonso McLaren Renault 323.3 (200.9) -6.0
17 Lance Stroll Williams Mercedes 321.9 (200.0) -7.4
18 Marcus Ericsson Sauber Ferrari 320.9 (199.4) -8.4
19 Stoffel Vandoorne McLaren Renault 320.6 (199.2) -8.7

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Drivers’ remaining tyres

Driver Team Super-soft Ultra-soft Hyper-soft
New Used New Used New Used
Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 1 0 1 1 0 3
Valtteri Bottas Mercedes 1 0 1 1 0 3
Sebastian Vettel Ferrari 1 0 1 1 0 3
Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari 1 0 1 1 0 3
Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull 1 0 1 0 0 4
Max Verstappen Red Bull 1 0 1 0 0 4
Sergio Perez Force India 2 0 1 0 0 3
Esteban Ocon Force India 2 0 1 0 0 3
Lance Stroll Williams 1 1 1 0 2 2
Sergey Sirotkin Williams 1 1 1 0 2 2
Carlos Sainz Jnr Renault 1 0 1 0 0 4
Nico Hulkenberg Renault 1 0 1 0 0 4
Pierre Gasly Toro Rosso 1 0 1 0 3 2
Brendon Hartley Toro Rosso 1 0 1 0 1 4
Romain Grosjean Haas 1 0 1 0 5 0
Kevin Magnussen Haas 1 0 1 0 1 4
Fernando Alonso McLaren 2 0 1 0 1 3
Stoffel Vandoorne McLaren 1 0 1 0 1 4
Marcus Ericsson Sauber 2 0 1 0 3 1
Charles Leclerc Sauber 2 0 1 0 1 3

Over to you

Can Verstappen disrupt the front row and fight for victory in Canada? And where can Romain Grosjean climb to from last on the grid in a quick Haas?

Share your views on the Canadian Grand Prix in the comments.

Quotes: Dieter Rencken

2018 Canadian Grand Prix

Browse all 2018 Canadian Grand Prix articles

Author information

Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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23 comments on “How Red Bull could go aggressive in pursuit of Canada win”

  1. I consider RBR the third place team in the WCC, likely for the season overall, so I think they have been and will continue to have to take a few more risks and try a few different things to make up particularly for their relative lack of hp and straight line speed. And that really spices things up. Gonna be fascinating to see what happens.

  2. Vettel fan 17 (@)
    10th June 2018, 13:54

    If Verstappen gets into first then I think they should go for a two stop. Verstappen is a good overtaker so that wont be an issue. The thing is tyres: They’ll have to use the ultras and supers. Speaking of which, Ferrari and Mercedes are forced into a one stop really. No hypers, and US/US/SS or in whatever combination is too risky. Strategies are going to be really interesting

    1. @vettelfan17 Like Vettel did two years ago? I don’t think that was a very good strategy. You don’t want to make more stops if you have track position. The only driver who might make 2 stops in the top 6 will be Ricciardo if he’s still in 6th place after the first round of stops.

    2. If verstappen is leading after turn 1; red bull will prob 1 stop HS/SS cuz track position is vital… & maybe theyll go aggresive with daniel HS/HS/US to attack & we all know that Ricciardo is the best of tbe best in terms of overtaking @vettelfan17 @f1infiguress

    3. Agreed @vettelfan17 except for verstappen is a good overtaker 🤣

  3. “But I’m sure he’ll give it everything, as we know he always does. I hope he gives it everything. And I hope that me and Valtteri will be there to maximise the points.”

    Shots have been fired.

    1. I also read that as Hamilton hoping Verstappen will take out Vettel…
      Mind games probably but still, it might also push Vettel to not fight Verstappen too much.

      1. Lol it does sound like he’s hoping Max gives it beyond his all, and rather gives too much, but then one could also interpret his wording as literally that he hopes to maximize his own points knowing SV is starting where he is.

        I think the biggest storyline for the WDC though will be that SV must take away more points than LH does when all is said and done come the checkered flag.

        1. I suspect if Max sails one up the inside of Vettel, he isn’t going to defend too hard. Vettel needs to think of the long game but Max doesn’t have to and he probably knows that.

          1. GtisBetter (@)
            10th June 2018, 17:01

            I disagree. Max also has a lot to lose. He has been openly ctritized by his boss that he doesn’t get enough points. He can’t afford a lap 1 DNF mistake. In spite of his attitude I suspect he will play it safe. A podium is good enough.

  4. However while Montreal’s long straights give the impression of a circuit where overtaking is easy, that wasn’t really the case last year with the high-downforce cars. Data from Mercedes indicates there was as many passes in this race last year as there was at the Circuit de Catalunya, a track which is notorious for being difficult to pass on.

    Incorrect. There was much more passing last year in Canada (remember Vettel’s run from last to fourth place). Overtaking will be reasonably easy.

    1. @f1infigures ”Overtaking will be reasonably easy.”
      – I doubt it. The Perez-Ocon-(Ricciardo) fight from last season’s race is an example of it not being that easy after all even though this circuit is significantly more overtaking-friendly on paper than the likes of Monaco and Circuit de Catalunya, for example.

      1. @jerejj You still need a large enough speed advantage to overtake, and Montréal is no exception. Tyre degradation is usually low and last year there were not too many interesting battles between similarly-paced cars. The 2014 and 2016 events were more interesting, as some drivers were better at making their tyres last than others.

        1. @f1infigures I found the 2016 edition less exciting quality of racing-wise than last season’s.

          1. @jerejj It’s absolutely possible to disagree with me. Last year there wasn’t much of a battle for the lead and everyone was basically on the same strategy, whereas in 2016 tyre strategies did make a difference (Ferrari made a dubious pit call with both drivers; Bottas finishing in 3rd after a strong race). Last year we had the frantic Force India battle, though.

        2. @f1infigures There wasn’t much of a battle for the lead in 2016 either, but the 2017 race featured more battles for a position a little further back in the field than the 2016 one.

    2. @f1infigures

      Incorrect. There was much more passing last year in Canada (remember Vettel’s run from last to fourth place).

      You can say “incorrect” as much as you like, but do you have any data to back that claim up? As far as I can see, Vettel overtook no more than 6 cars on the track on his way from 18th to 4th, the rest being due to pit stops. And he’s the most extreme example for the whole race by a huge margin.
      I mean, why would Mercedes gather nonsensical data? If they say there were fewer overtakes in Montreal than there were in Barcelona in 2017, and you say that’s incorrect because Vettel came back from the back of the grid, that’s like saying there is no climate change because it rained last Sunday.

  5. This race is really intriguing for a number of reasons.

    On the face of it, Red Bull have the pace to at least challenge for the win, I expect Max to make up at least one place off the line, as he did last year, but he may even be able to lead coming out of T2.

    The softer tyre will mean he has a good run out of the hairpin so it’s really a question of how much DRS can overcome the Ferrari’s higher top speed, but looking at the speed trap data that should be quite possible, the deficit is really quite small.

    But how long will those Hypers last? Long enough for a 1 stopper? I think they’ll be OK as the Supers can probably go a long way.

    If Max does launch one down the inside of Vettel into the chicane (or pretty much anywhere) I can see Vettel not fighting it too hard.

    Also, does Hamilton have more downforce than Bottas? Speed trap data seems to indicate that, but did they have slipstreams etc?

    Mercedes will be quicker in the second half of the race with better long stint times on the harder tyres I reckon, so as I say, intriguing.

    1. This looks like it might be a good race. I must applaud the TV coverage; the camera placement is excellent, especially at the ‘Wall of Champions’. I also really like how some cameras don’t zoom in on the cars as the pass, but let the speed be shown as they, extremely rapidly, vanish in the distance. The true speed of these machines is being shown here to best advantage and I hope lessons are learned about coverage. Television never conveys the true speed of F1; you actually have to go to a race to be amazed and stunned by the cornering speed of these machines. Thanks TV directors!!! FIA, please require the teams to put the driver’s initials on the halo.

  6. ”The third DRS zone added to the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve this weekend may help matters.”
    – Yes, it could, but I highly doubt it. I doubt the addition of a 3rd activation zone is going to make any difference in aiding overtaking into turn eight due to both how short that straight is and the type of corner that leads onto it.

    1. @jerejj

      I doubt the addition of a 3rd activation zone is going to make any difference in aiding overtaking into turn eight due to both how short that straight is and the type of corner that leads onto it

      You’re right, but that’s not really its purpose. Instead, this additional DRS zone is meant to reduce the gap between cars, or at least prevent the gap from growing too much in a section of the track that is characterised by corners that tend to make following another car too closely rather difficult.
      The aim is to shave a couple of tenths off the gap that is normally created by dirty air, allowing for a closer gap before the hairpin and consequently before the DRS activation point on the long straight.

  7. Max will race to win as always.

  8. Coming from the nbc coverage in the us last year, I thought I was going to hate the sky coverage. Boy was I ever proven wrong! The coverage and people are awesome. Thanks Sky and ESPN for no commercials!! It’s just great!!

Comments are closed.