Max Verstappen, Red Bull, Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, 2018

How Red Bull could go aggressive in pursuit of Canada win

2018 Canadian Grand Prix pre-race analysis

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While Daniel Ricciardo’s pole position in Monaco was widely expected, Max Verstappen’s third place on the grid in Canada is arguably even better news for Red Bull.

It’s only the second time this year they’ve got a car inside the top three in qualifying, and they’ve done it on a track where their less powerful engine puts them at a greater disadvantage.

Can Verstappen, using his hyper-soft tyres, take the fight to front row occupants Sebastian Vettel and Valtteri Bottas, who will start on the ultra-softs?

Lewis Hamilton, who Verstappen shares the second row with, doubts the advantage of being on softer rubber will be enough on its own to carry Verstappen into the lead.

“Ferraris are consistently quickest or second-quickest starters so far this year and Red Bull have not been as good as them,” he said. “But I’m sure he’ll give it everything, as we know he always does. I hope he gives it everything. And I hope that me and Valtteri will be there to maximise the points.”

But last year Verstappen didn’t need the advantage of softer tyres to make a stunning getaway which propelled him from fifth to second.

How Vettel plays the start will be crucial. The combination of opening corners at the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve makes it easy for the pole sitter to compromise the driver who starts alongside him. He may view Verstappen as a potentially useful buffer to the Mercedes in the opening laps, in which case Bottas can expect a squeeze from the Ferrari on the outside of turn one.

After that, which driver is on the best strategy? As usual the difficulty of overtaking will play an important role.

“Here is different compared to Monaco with some places where it’s easier to overtake,” said Pirelli’s sporting director Mario Isola. “[In] Monaco we know it’s very difficult to overtake, that’s why everyone was trying a one-stop race.”

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However while Montreal’s long straights give the impression of a circuit where overtaking is easy, that wasn’t really the case last year with the high-downforce cars. Data from Mercedes indicates there was as many passes in this race last year as there was at the Circuit de Catalunya, a track which is notorious for being difficult to pass on.

The third DRS zone added to the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve this weekend may help matters. But even so the likes of Sergio Perez, who is starting on hyper-soft tyres, considers it “critical” to avoid making more than one pit stop.

One factor which could work against Red Bull is that the race day temperature looks likely to be higher than was expected earlier in the week. The hyper-soft tyres they will start on have performed better in cooler conditions, whereas the warmth should help Ferrari and Mercedes ‘switch on’ their ultra-softs.

Could Red Bull attempt a one-stop strategy using the ultra-softs for the second stint? Pirelli hasn’t indicated this as a realistic strategy for the race. But if Red Bull see a chance to get a car into the lead this way, surely they will give it a try?

The high possibility of a Safety Car at this track could make it worth exploring such a radical strategy. And Pirelli tends to under-estimate how far drivers will push their tyres.

When Vettel used an aggressive ‘plan D’ strategy of running the two softest tyres on a one-stop strategy in Bahrain, his second stint was six laps longer than Pirelli suggested would be possible. With the hyper-softs predicted to last up to 15 laps at the start, we’ll find out early on if this is what they have in mind.

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Qualifying times in full

DriverCarQ1

Q2 (vs Q1)

Q3 (vs Q2)
1Sebastian VettelFerrari1’11.7101’11.524 (-0.186)1’10.764 (-0.760)
2Valtteri BottasMercedes1’11.9501’11.514 (-0.436)1’10.857 (-0.657)
3Max VerstappenRed Bull1’12.0081’11.472 (-0.536)1’10.937 (-0.535)
4Lewis HamiltonMercedes1’11.8351’11.740 (-0.095)1’10.996 (-0.744)
5Kimi RaikkonenFerrari1’11.7251’11.620 (-0.105)1’11.095 (-0.525)
6Daniel RicciardoRed Bull1’12.4591’11.434 (-1.025)1’11.116 (-0.318)
7Nico HulkenbergRenault1’12.7951’11.916 (-0.879)1’11.973 (+0.057)
8Esteban OconForce India1’12.5771’12.141 (-0.436)1’12.084 (-0.057)
9Carlos Sainz JnrRenault1’12.6891’12.097 (-0.592)1’12.168 (+0.071)
10Sergio PerezForce India1’12.7021’12.395 (-0.307)1’12.671 (+0.276)
11Kevin MagnussenHaas1’12.6801’12.606 (-0.074)
12Brendon HartleyToro Rosso1’12.5871’12.635 (+0.048)
13Charles LeclercSauber1’12.9451’12.661 (-0.284)
14Fernando AlonsoMcLaren1’12.9791’12.856 (-0.123)
15Stoffel VandoorneMcLaren1’12.9981’12.865 (-0.133)
16Pierre GaslyToro Rosso1’13.047
17Lance StrollWilliams1’13.590
18Sergey SirotkinWilliams1’13.643
19Marcus EricssonSauber1’14.593
20Romain GrosjeanHaas

Sector times

DriverSector 1Sector 2Sector 3
Sebastian Vettel19.480 (4)22.626 (1)28.570 (1)
Valtteri Bottas19.423 (2)22.693 (4)28.689 (2)
Max Verstappen19.420 (1)22.695 (5)28.802 (4)
Lewis Hamilton19.430 (3)22.696 (6)28.869 (5)
Kimi Raikkonen19.638 (6)22.671 (2)28.745 (3)
Daniel Ricciardo19.523 (5)22.672 (3)28.921 (6)
Nico Hulkenberg19.922 (8)22.954 (8)28.924 (7)
Esteban Ocon19.930 (9)23.110 (10)28.946 (8)
Carlos Sainz Jnr19.901 (7)22.951 (7)29.159 (11)
Sergio Perez19.934 (10)23.127 (11)29.199 (12)
Kevin Magnussen20.024 (13)23.095 (9)29.279 (13)
Brendon Hartley20.020 (12)23.288 (12)29.135 (10)
Charles Leclerc20.060 (14)23.410 (15)29.131 (9)
Fernando Alonso20.015 (11)23.353 (14)29.376 (15)
Stoffel Vandoorne20.152 (15)23.346 (13)29.367 (14)
Pierre Gasly20.219 (16)23.427 (16)29.386 (16)
Lance Stroll20.332 (18)23.471 (17)29.730 (18)
Sergey Sirotkin20.281 (17)23.624 (18)29.598 (17)
Marcus Ericsson20.593 (19)23.843 (19)29.960 (19)
Romain Grosjean

Speed trap

PosDriverCarEngineSpeed (kph/mph)Gap
1Charles LeclercSauberFerrari329.3 (204.6)
2Sergio PerezForce IndiaMercedes328.1 (203.9)-1.2
3Esteban OconForce IndiaMercedes327.0 (203.2)-2.3
4Sebastian VettelFerrariFerrari326.4 (202.8)-2.9
5Nico HulkenbergRenaultRenault326.2 (202.7)-3.1
6Valtteri BottasMercedesMercedes326.2 (202.7)-3.1
7Carlos Sainz JnrRenaultRenault325.7 (202.4)-3.6
8Kimi RaikkonenFerrariFerrari325.6 (202.3)-3.7
9Kevin MagnussenHaasFerrari325.4 (202.2)-3.9
10Brendon HartleyToro RossoHonda325.3 (202.1)-4.0
11Pierre GaslyToro RossoHonda325.3 (202.1)-4.0
12Daniel RicciardoRed BullTAG Heuer324.6 (201.7)-4.7
13Lewis HamiltonMercedesMercedes324.5 (201.6)-4.8
14Max VerstappenRed BullTAG Heuer324.1 (201.4)-5.2
15Sergey SirotkinWilliamsMercedes323.5 (201.0)-5.8
16Fernando AlonsoMcLarenRenault323.3 (200.9)-6.0
17Lance StrollWilliamsMercedes321.9 (200.0)-7.4
18Marcus EricssonSauberFerrari320.9 (199.4)-8.4
19Stoffel VandoorneMcLarenRenault320.6 (199.2)-8.7

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Drivers’ remaining tyres

DriverTeamSuper-softUltra-softHyper-soft
NewUsedNewUsedNewUsed
Lewis HamiltonMercedes101103
Valtteri BottasMercedes101103
Sebastian VettelFerrari101103
Kimi RaikkonenFerrari101103
Daniel RicciardoRed Bull101004
Max VerstappenRed Bull101004
Sergio PerezForce India201003
Esteban OconForce India201003
Lance StrollWilliams111022
Sergey SirotkinWilliams111022
Carlos Sainz JnrRenault101004
Nico HulkenbergRenault101004
Pierre GaslyToro Rosso101032
Brendon HartleyToro Rosso101014
Romain GrosjeanHaas101050
Kevin MagnussenHaas101014
Fernando AlonsoMcLaren201013
Stoffel VandoorneMcLaren101014
Marcus EricssonSauber201031
Charles LeclercSauber201013

Over to you

Can Verstappen disrupt the front row and fight for victory in Canada? And where can Romain Grosjean climb to from last on the grid in a quick Haas?

Share your views on the Canadian Grand Prix in the comments.

Quotes: Dieter Rencken

2018 Canadian Grand Prix

Browse all 2018 Canadian Grand Prix articles

Author information

Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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23 comments on “How Red Bull could go aggressive in pursuit of Canada win”

  1. I consider RBR the third place team in the WCC, likely for the season overall, so I think they have been and will continue to have to take a few more risks and try a few different things to make up particularly for their relative lack of hp and straight line speed. And that really spices things up. Gonna be fascinating to see what happens.

  2. Vettel fan 17 (@)
    10th June 2018, 13:54

    If Verstappen gets into first then I think they should go for a two stop. Verstappen is a good overtaker so that wont be an issue. The thing is tyres: They’ll have to use the ultras and supers. Speaking of which, Ferrari and Mercedes are forced into a one stop really. No hypers, and US/US/SS or in whatever combination is too risky. Strategies are going to be really interesting

    1. @vettelfan17 Like Vettel did two years ago? I don’t think that was a very good strategy. You don’t want to make more stops if you have track position. The only driver who might make 2 stops in the top 6 will be Ricciardo if he’s still in 6th place after the first round of stops.

    2. If verstappen is leading after turn 1; red bull will prob 1 stop HS/SS cuz track position is vital… & maybe theyll go aggresive with daniel HS/HS/US to attack & we all know that Ricciardo is the best of tbe best in terms of overtaking @vettelfan17 @f1infiguress

    3. Agreed @vettelfan17 except for verstappen is a good overtaker 🤣

  3. “But I’m sure he’ll give it everything, as we know he always does. I hope he gives it everything. And I hope that me and Valtteri will be there to maximise the points.”

    Shots have been fired.

    1. I also read that as Hamilton hoping Verstappen will take out Vettel…
      Mind games probably but still, it might also push Vettel to not fight Verstappen too much.

      1. Lol it does sound like he’s hoping Max gives it beyond his all, and rather gives too much, but then one could also interpret his wording as literally that he hopes to maximize his own points knowing SV is starting where he is.

        I think the biggest storyline for the WDC though will be that SV must take away more points than LH does when all is said and done come the checkered flag.

        1. I suspect if Max sails one up the inside of Vettel, he isn’t going to defend too hard. Vettel needs to think of the long game but Max doesn’t have to and he probably knows that.

          1. GtisBetter (@)
            10th June 2018, 17:01

            I disagree. Max also has a lot to lose. He has been openly ctritized by his boss that he doesn’t get enough points. He can’t afford a lap 1 DNF mistake. In spite of his attitude I suspect he will play it safe. A podium is good enough.

  4. However while Montreal’s long straights give the impression of a circuit where overtaking is easy, that wasn’t really the case last year with the high-downforce cars. Data from Mercedes indicates there was as many passes in this race last year as there was at the Circuit de Catalunya, a track which is notorious for being difficult to pass on.

    Incorrect. There was much more passing last year in Canada (remember Vettel’s run from last to fourth place). Overtaking will be reasonably easy.

    1. @f1infigures ”Overtaking will be reasonably easy.”
      – I doubt it. The Perez-Ocon-(Ricciardo) fight from last season’s race is an example of it not being that easy after all even though this circuit is significantly more overtaking-friendly on paper than the likes of Monaco and Circuit de Catalunya, for example.

      1. @jerejj You still need a large enough speed advantage to overtake, and Montréal is no exception. Tyre degradation is usually low and last year there were not too many interesting battles between similarly-paced cars. The 2014 and 2016 events were more interesting, as some drivers were better at making their tyres last than others.

        1. @f1infigures I found the 2016 edition less exciting quality of racing-wise than last season’s.

          1. @jerejj It’s absolutely possible to disagree with me. Last year there wasn’t much of a battle for the lead and everyone was basically on the same strategy, whereas in 2016 tyre strategies did make a difference (Ferrari made a dubious pit call with both drivers; Bottas finishing in 3rd after a strong race). Last year we had the frantic Force India battle, though.

        2. @f1infigures There wasn’t much of a battle for the lead in 2016 either, but the 2017 race featured more battles for a position a little further back in the field than the 2016 one.

    2. @f1infigures

      Incorrect. There was much more passing last year in Canada (remember Vettel’s run from last to fourth place).

      You can say “incorrect” as much as you like, but do you have any data to back that claim up? As far as I can see, Vettel overtook no more than 6 cars on the track on his way from 18th to 4th, the rest being due to pit stops. And he’s the most extreme example for the whole race by a huge margin.
      I mean, why would Mercedes gather nonsensical data? If they say there were fewer overtakes in Montreal than there were in Barcelona in 2017, and you say that’s incorrect because Vettel came back from the back of the grid, that’s like saying there is no climate change because it rained last Sunday.

  5. This race is really intriguing for a number of reasons.

    On the face of it, Red Bull have the pace to at least challenge for the win, I expect Max to make up at least one place off the line, as he did last year, but he may even be able to lead coming out of T2.

    The softer tyre will mean he has a good run out of the hairpin so it’s really a question of how much DRS can overcome the Ferrari’s higher top speed, but looking at the speed trap data that should be quite possible, the deficit is really quite small.

    But how long will those Hypers last? Long enough for a 1 stopper? I think they’ll be OK as the Supers can probably go a long way.

    If Max does launch one down the inside of Vettel into the chicane (or pretty much anywhere) I can see Vettel not fighting it too hard.

    Also, does Hamilton have more downforce than Bottas? Speed trap data seems to indicate that, but did they have slipstreams etc?

    Mercedes will be quicker in the second half of the race with better long stint times on the harder tyres I reckon, so as I say, intriguing.

    1. This looks like it might be a good race. I must applaud the TV coverage; the camera placement is excellent, especially at the ‘Wall of Champions’. I also really like how some cameras don’t zoom in on the cars as the pass, but let the speed be shown as they, extremely rapidly, vanish in the distance. The true speed of these machines is being shown here to best advantage and I hope lessons are learned about coverage. Television never conveys the true speed of F1; you actually have to go to a race to be amazed and stunned by the cornering speed of these machines. Thanks TV directors!!! FIA, please require the teams to put the driver’s initials on the halo.

  6. ”The third DRS zone added to the Circuit Gilles Villeneuve this weekend may help matters.”
    – Yes, it could, but I highly doubt it. I doubt the addition of a 3rd activation zone is going to make any difference in aiding overtaking into turn eight due to both how short that straight is and the type of corner that leads onto it.

    1. @jerejj

      I doubt the addition of a 3rd activation zone is going to make any difference in aiding overtaking into turn eight due to both how short that straight is and the type of corner that leads onto it

      You’re right, but that’s not really its purpose. Instead, this additional DRS zone is meant to reduce the gap between cars, or at least prevent the gap from growing too much in a section of the track that is characterised by corners that tend to make following another car too closely rather difficult.
      The aim is to shave a couple of tenths off the gap that is normally created by dirty air, allowing for a closer gap before the hairpin and consequently before the DRS activation point on the long straight.

  7. Max will race to win as always.

  8. Coming from the nbc coverage in the us last year, I thought I was going to hate the sky coverage. Boy was I ever proven wrong! The coverage and people are awesome. Thanks Sky and ESPN for no commercials!! It’s just great!!

Comments are closed.