Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes, Circuit de Catalunya, 2018

Will Bottas’s luck finally change? Five Austrian GP talking points

2018 Austrian Grand Prix

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Valtteri Bottas scored his second victory in the Austrian Grand Prix last year. But an unlucky start to 2018 means he is yet to head the podium this season.

Will that change this weekend? Here are the Austrian Grand Prix talking points.

Too close to call

The contest at the sharp end remains thrillingly close. Three different teams have taken pole position in the last three races. Neither Mercedes nor Ferrari seems an obvious favourite for pole position this weekend. And Red Bull, which has never won its home race, can expect to be a factor on Sunday.

Last week in Paul Ricard a first-lap crash opened the way for Lewis Hamilton to take a straightforward victory which put him back in the lead of the championship. Next week he will head to his Silverstone stronghold, where he has won for the last four years in a row, and can expect to be in strong shape again this year.

That makes this race all the more crucial for Sebastian Vettel to ensure the championship leader doesn’t put a mid-season sprint on and leave him behind in the standings. A lot of points are going to be scored in this spell of five races within six weeks.

F1 Vision 2

Will Bottas get a change of luck?

When the season began the talk around Valtteri Bottas was whether he could do enough to justify Mercedes keeping him on for a third season. In terms of performance he has done well, but the results haven’t come yet. He scored his second victory of 2017 in Austria but he is win-less so far this year.

Last weekend’s race was another demonstration of why that isn’t entirely his fault. Vettel turfed him off at the first corner, meaning a potential second-place finish became seventh. But that points loss was nothing compared to Baku, where a puncture from debris handed a likely Bottas win to his team mate. He was on course to win in China too until the Safety Car appeared.

Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes, Baku City Circuit, 2018
Baku was cruel to Bottas
As a result he’s now dropped to fourth in the standings, 53 points behind his team mate. It’s not a fair reflection on his driving so far, but that’s the way it is in F1. Perhaps it will change this weekend.

The driver market

Red Bull’s announcement they will use Honda engine next year fired the starting gun in the driver market. Suddenly Mercedes are hinting they’ll have a deal with Hamilton sorted soon, Ferrari are rumoured to be homing in on Charles Leclerc, and McLaren have been linked to Daniel Ricciardo and Kimi Raikkonen.

Will we get an announcement this weekend? As Red Bull’s home race, it would be an obvious venue for them to lay their cards out. With Mercedes seemingly satisfied in their current line-up, Ferrari considering Leclerc and Renault apparently unwilling to pay the kind of salary Ricciardo is seeking, staying at Red Bull now seems his only chance of getting a race-winning car next year.

Expect the first pieces of the puzzle for the 2019 F1 driver market to fall into place soon.

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McLaren’s alarming slump

Fernando Alonso’s fifth place in the first race of the year increasingly looks like a false dawn. McLaren’s results have got steadily worse since then, and he hasn’t scored in any of the last three races. Both the team’s cars were eliminated in Q1 last weekend.

How has it gone so badly wrong? Group CEO Zak Brown said in France the team has an aerodynamic problem which it wasn’t able to detect in the wind tunnel. At least one rival team technical officer expressed scepticism about this explanation.

Whatever has gone wrong, it’s gone wrong quickly. Can they turn it around as quickly, with their home race one week away?

Grosjean’s dire season

‘When will Romain Grosjean score a point?’ has been a running theme of race previews so far this year. The question is being asked ever more urgently as Kevin Magnussen took his fourth points finish of the season in France and is single-handedly keeping Haas in seventh place in the championship.

The team were very competitive at this track last year. But the pressure is building on Grosjean to deliver his long overdue first score of 2018.

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2018 so far

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2018 Austrian Grand Prix

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Author information

Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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12 comments on “Will Bottas’s luck finally change? Five Austrian GP talking points”

  1. Shy Finn has become the unluckiest driver on grid somehow. Hope his luck changes soon.

  2. Bottas’ bad luck is reaching astronomical proportions now. I put his season right up with Hamilton in 2012 and Raikkonen in 2005. Sometimes, it just isn’t your year. Keep your chin up lad. You have been driving very well. Better than Ocon for sure.

  3. Will Bottas get a change of luck? – Hopefully.

  4. On McLaren, I predict another tough weekend for them. If the car is as draggy as people are making out they should struggle given the layout of the Red Bull Ring.

  5. Well he has the car and he has shown he can drive OK. The ball is in his court.

  6. Funny how you mention Ricciardo’s move to McLaren, then the next point is how terrible McLaren were at Paul Ricard, which probably really put Ricciardo off going there. I think he’ll only go to a team who are already competitive, not one which has ‘potential’
    I expect him to stay at Red Bull for lack of a better option, I think Leclerc will go to Ferrari but the Merc and Red Bull will stay as they are.

  7. Lets hope so!! He has ben driving great, top step in Austria?

  8. I suspect this is an unpopular opinion but I think the cars are too reliable these days. in terms of the championship bottas is only ~2 wins from the top but the likelihood of him making up that ground on hamilton and vettel without reliability problems is very low. when i started following the sport if a driver was 20 points down mid-season they were by no means considered out of the running for the title. in 1995 damon hill was 17 points behind with only 5 races left and he was confident he could still win (he didn’t of course, but that’s not the point). now it seems the die is cast if a driver is in such a position, even at this early stage in the season.

    it was more exciting for the championship fight when there was a genuine sense that everything could change – i realise it takes some of the sport out of it and that it (kind of) happened recently when hamilton lost all those points in malaysia in 2016 – but mostly nowadays you kind of know what’s going to happen before it does. i guess it’s a product of the teams being more organised than they were 25 years ago (better use of IT perhaps? better management structures? could be anything) but the upshot is that the freak results are vanishingly rare.

    1. what about Bottas starts winning some races?

      1. It’s absolutely none of his fault he didn’t, and indeed, with this reliability he’s out already, unless bad luck strikes both leaders later on.

  9. Both Bottas and Räikkönen have been incredibly unlucky this season. Bottas has lost a win and Kimi two podiums through mechanical failures – I’d hope this will change now.

  10. Please elaborate on the rival team technical officer who says McLaren has other problems, or at least send us a link to the story. I am out of the loop with that one, keith!

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