Valtteri Bottas, Mercedes, Red Bull Ring, 2018

Bottas has shot at overdue win as Mercedes won’t impose team orders

2018 Austrian Grand Prix pre-race analysis

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When Toto Wolff heard, during his evening media briefing at the Red Bull Ring, that Ferrari’s Sebastian Vettel had been given a three-place grid penalty, the Mercedes team principal remarked that he’d prefer to “beat them on-track”.

However there must be relief at Mercedes that, for the second race weekend in a row, they only have one Ferrari immediately behind them on the grid with a softer set of tyres, when there should be two. In Paul Ricard they were let off the hook by Kimi Raikkonen’s sub-par qualifying effort; here’s Ricardo Adami’s failure to notify Vettel that Carlos Sainz Jnr was bearing down on him at turn one has done it.

Valtteri Bottas and Lewis Hamilton, therefore, will only have to worry about containing Raikkonen’s third-placed ultra-soft-shod car at first. But Wolff isn’t taking for granted how easy this will be.

“Kimi is still there. What we have seen is the Ferrari is particularly strong on traction out of turn three. So the problem is not solved. There is a Ferrari that performs well. [But] obviously the situation is more comfortable like this.”

The pole sitter has kept the lead on lap one in every race this year. The last time a driver lost the lead from pole at the start was in Brazil last year, when Bottas was passed by Sebastian Vettel.

[f1vision]

However Bottas – whose start in this race last year was so quick Vettel was convinced it was illegal – is not too concerned about being challenged into turn one.

“It’s a relatively short run into turn one so I think you need a normal start,” he said. “Of course, you always try to get a good one – but I think to actually lose a position here or to gain, there needs to be quite a big difference with the starts.”

Lewis Hamilton, though, will be well aware that starting second gives him a chance of taking the lead. That’s how Nico Rosberg beat him to victory at this track three years ago. Hamilton vowed he won’t treat his team mate different to any other rival at the start. “There’s no difference,” he said. “Still racing.”

Fortunately for Bottas, the team’s hierarchy won’t treat him any differently either. Hamilton may be 53 points ahead of his team mate, thanks largely to the misfortunes Bottas has suffered, but Wolff made it clear Bottas won’t have to play the designated number two role any time soon.

“We’ve discussed that internally already. We are at race nine, there’s a long way to go, and I think we owe it to the fans. It is also the racing mindset we have that we won’t be playing for a driver championship in June [or] July.

Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari, Red Bull Ring, 2018
A penalty has dropped Vettel to sixth
“Obviously towards the end of the season if you go in the last championship and you can see that this is a solid advantage for one of the drivers, this is the unfortunate situation within every race team that you need to look at. But not now.”

The threat to Mercedes from Ferrari has been stronger this year than in previous seasons. Even so, the W09’s latest aerodynamic upgrade, allied to the power unit boost which arrived at the last race, has given it a clear edge. As Vettel noted, the Mercedes has the legs on them in the final sector (see below) at the Red Bull Ring – which also bodes well for the silver cars at Silverstone.

“I think the last two corners are not too bad but I think it’s the very high-speed seven and turn nine, so the first one, the second last corner. It’s close. We’re not talking about much but obviously enough to get ahead.”

Ferrari’s strength remains on the straights, as Hamilton was reminded when he was trading fastest sector times with Vettel in practice. At the start it will be down to Raikkonen to see if he can make good use of it.

As Pirelli admitted on Friday, the race is likely to be a straightforward one-stop affair, even for the teams starting on the softer compounds. The ultra-soft tyre is prone to graining and drivers are likely to opt for the harder compounds, which last longer and give away little in terms of performance.

The main area of interest strategically will be around how early or late drivers dare to pit. For the front runners this will depend on how quickly gaps open up behind them, which in turn could rest on how long the Haas and Renault drivers can make their worn ultra-softs last.

Vettel’s demotion to sixth place could give Ferrari the classic strategic headache of what to do when their two drivers intersect in terms of strategy. Mercedes may have publicly declared they’ll let their two drivers fight it out, but this seldom seems to be the policy at Maranello.

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Qualifying times in full

Driver Car Q1

Q2 (vs Q1)

Q3 (vs Q2)
1 Valtteri Bottas Mercedes 1’04.175 1’03.756 (-0.419) 1’03.130 (-0.626)
2 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 1’04.080 1’03.577 (-0.503) 1’03.149 (-0.428)
3 Sebastian Vettel Ferrari 1’04.347 1’03.544 (-0.803) 1’03.464 (-0.080)
4 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari 1’04.234 1’03.975 (-0.259) 1’03.660 (-0.315)
5 Max Verstappen Red Bull 1’04.273 1’04.001 (-0.272) 1’03.840 (-0.161)
6 Romain Grosjean Haas 1’04.242 1’04.059 (-0.183) 1’03.892 (-0.167)
7 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull 1’04.723 1’04.403 (-0.320) 1’03.996 (-0.407)
8 Kevin Magnussen Haas 1’04.460 1’04.291 (-0.169) 1’04.051 (-0.240)
9 Carlos Sainz Jnr Renault 1’04.948 1’04.561 (-0.387) 1’04.725 (+0.164)
10 Nico Hulkenberg Renault 1’04.864 1’04.676 (-0.188) 1’05.019 (+0.343)
11 Esteban Ocon Force India 1’05.148 1’04.845 (-0.303)
12 Pierre Gasly Toro Rosso 1’05.011 1’04.874 (-0.137)
13 Charles Leclerc Sauber 1’04.967 1’04.979 (+0.012)
14 Fernando Alonso McLaren 1’04.965 1’05.058 (+0.093)
15 Lance Stroll Williams 1’05.264 1’05.286 (+0.022)
16 Stoffel Vandoorne McLaren 1’05.271
17 Sergio Perez Force India 1’05.279
18 Sergey Sirotkin Williams 1’05.322
19 Brendon Hartley Toro Rosso 1’05.366
20 Marcus Ericsson Sauber 1’05.479

Sector times

Driver Sector 1 Sector 2 Sector 3
Valtteri Bottas 16.018 (1) 28.013 (3) 19.099 (1)
Lewis Hamilton 16.025 (2) 28.011 (2) 19.113 (2)
Sebastian Vettel 16.163 (4) 27.913 (1) 19.336 (3)
Kimi Raikkonen 16.066 (3) 28.022 (4) 19.554 (7)
Max Verstappen 16.200 (5) 28.182 (6) 19.406 (5)
Romain Grosjean 16.239 (7) 28.230 (7) 19.385 (4)
Daniel Ricciardo 16.316 (10) 28.137 (5) 19.475 (6)
Kevin Magnussen 16.247 (8) 28.240 (8) 19.564 (8)
Carlos Sainz Jnr 16.341 (12) 28.380 (10) 19.828 (12)
Nico Hulkenberg 16.319 (11) 28.364 (9) 19.850 (15)
Esteban Ocon 16.225 (6) 28.583 (13) 19.878 (17)
Pierre Gasly 16.403 (14) 28.552 (11) 19.792 (10)
Charles Leclerc 16.354 (13) 28.578 (12) 19.779 (9)
Fernando Alonso 16.426 (15) 28.632 (14) 19.828 (12)
Lance Stroll 16.438 (16) 28.757 (15) 19.912 (19)
Stoffel Vandoorne 16.515 (18) 28.874 (16) 19.882 (18)
Sergio Perez 16.271 (9) 28.936 (18) 20.017 (20)
Sergey Sirotkin 16.484 (17) 28.971 (19) 19.828 (12)
Brendon Hartley 16.538 (19) 28.904 (17) 19.875 (16)
Marcus Ericsson 16.565 (20) 29.038 (20) 19.805 (11)

Speed trap

Pos Driver Car Engine Speed (kph/mph) Gap
1 Sebastian Vettel Ferrari Ferrari 323.2 (200.8)
2 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes Mercedes 322.2 (200.2) -1.0
3 Esteban Ocon Force India Mercedes 321.7 (199.9) -1.5
4 Valtteri Bottas Mercedes Mercedes 321.7 (199.9) -1.5
5 Kimi Raikkonen Ferrari Ferrari 321.4 (199.7) -1.8
6 Romain Grosjean Haas Ferrari 320.5 (199.1) -2.7
7 Sergey Sirotkin Williams Mercedes 320.3 (199.0) -2.9
8 Sergio Perez Force India Mercedes 320.3 (199.0) -2.9
9 Lance Stroll Williams Mercedes 320.2 (199.0) -3.0
10 Kevin Magnussen Haas Ferrari 319.5 (198.5) -3.7
11 Charles Leclerc Sauber Ferrari 319.2 (198.3) -4.0
12 Nico Hulkenberg Renault Renault 319.0 (198.2) -4.2
13 Pierre Gasly Toro Rosso Honda 318.5 (197.9) -4.7
14 Brendon Hartley Toro Rosso Honda 318.3 (197.8) -4.9
15 Max Verstappen Red Bull TAG Heuer 316.7 (196.8) -6.5
16 Marcus Ericsson Sauber Ferrari 316.6 (196.7) -6.6
17 Fernando Alonso McLaren Renault 316.4 (196.6) -6.8
18 Carlos Sainz Jnr Renault Renault 316.4 (196.6) -6.8
19 Daniel Ricciardo Red Bull TAG Heuer 316.2 (196.5) -7.0
20 Stoffel Vandoorne McLaren Renault 314.6 (195.5) -8.6

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Over to you

Will Bottas finally take his first win of 2018? Where will Vettel finish from sixth on the grid? And will Romain Grosjean finally take his first points of the year?

Share your views on the Austrian Grand Prix in the comments.

Quotes: Dieter Rencken

2018 Austrian Grand Prix

Browse all 2018 Austrian Grand Prix articles

Author information

Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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12 comments on “Bottas has shot at overdue win as Mercedes won’t impose team orders”

  1. I think Toto and Niki will let them race. The Raikonnen threat should fizzle out as usual … so if there’s no threat from behind, I expect Toto to let them race fairly.

    1. Though expecting a Mercedes 1-2. My guess is Hamilton has a better race set up and should be faster. I don’t think this is one of his ‘off weekends’ where Bottas qualifies ahead and is faster in the race too. At the same time, this is a track Bottas clearly likes. If so, this could perhaps be the first time we see the two drivers really battle for the race win.

    2. I imagine it will be the “keep raikkonen out till his tyres fall off in the hopes that he will slow hamilton after a pit…..oh no it has not worked” tactic.

      1. Wow, that would be sick if that does happen. Kimi doesn’t deserve this…

        1. All this has happened before, and will happen again

  2. Looking at those speed trap times I can understand why DR wanted the team to use the tow for both cars. Either RBRs engines are down on power or Newey hasn’t kept up with the others.

    1. ColdFly (@)
      1st July 2018, 7:56

      I don’t see how the tow works when both cars finish the lap in anger, @hohum. The benefit of the tow early in the lap will be undone by the dirty air disadvantage in the latter sections.

    2. @hohum, Newey’s cars over the past few decades have tended to have a fairly high drag coefficient though – even during Vettel’s title winning phase, the cars tended to lag towards the bottom of the speed traps.

      To some extent, there have been times when they’ve tended to run with a higher wing angle than their rivals (they’ve done that at Silverstone for the past couple of years, for example), even if there is the inevitable drag penalty that comes with that additional downforce.

    3. According to Verstappen they even had to sacrifice cornering speed to be faster on the straights, but the speed-trap figures do not show this. Perhaps running the “old” Renault engines is a significant handicap. Also, Ricciardo’s tow was worth 0.5 km/h apparently, so it probably did more harm than good.

  3. Easy Mercedes one two. This is theirs to lose.

    Red Bull nowhere on pace and the only guy capable of challenging them got screwed by the team and starts too far back to make up the deficit.
    And I’d sooner see Alonso winning a third title then Kimi mounting a challenge for a win.

  4. Will Bottas finally take his first win of 2018? – Yes.
    Where will Vettel finish from sixth on the grid? – 4th.
    And will Romain Grosjean finally take his first points of the year? – Yes.

  5. Bit disappointed – long article but only 4 drivers are discussed. Yes they are the leaders but likely the most fights are in the midfield

Comments are closed.