Ferrari have the edge but rain could tip the balance in qualifying

Ferrari locked out the front row of the grid two years ago at the Hungaroring and Friday practice indicated they’re capable of doing it again this weekend.

At least, assuming the team’s year-long trend of hiding more of its pace on Friday continues. If it does, it’s hard to see past Sebastian Vettel for pole position tomorrow. It then becomes a question of whether Kimi Raikkonen will join him at the sharp end.

While Raikkonen hasn’t failed to reach Q3 since the 2016 edition of this grand prix – a 41-race streak which is the longest of any driver – getting the job done once he gets there has been his weakness this year. Vettel has started from the front row seven times this year, while Raikkonen hasn’t started a race with a clear view of turn one since Shanghai.

Ferrari’s rivals know their best chance of beating the read cars on Sunday will be to stop them monopolising the front row on Saturday. But which of them will be leading the charge?

Mercedes did not look happy at the Hungaroring on Friday. Both drivers aborted their qualifying simulation runs on Friday without setting a representative time. Both appeared to be struggling with rear grip. Lewis Hamilton was caught out by snaps of oversteer at turns four and six during the sessions.

Predictably, Red Bull were quick through the two twisty sectors but lost a lot of time to Ferrari in sector one. Mercedes were stronger at that part of the lap, and may yet discover something overnight which helps them keep their ultra-softs alive for longer. If not, they may be relegated to row three.

A change in the weather could tip the balance. Thunderstorms skirted the track on Friday but more are expected on Saturday and over a longer period of time, beginning around an hour before qualifying. That will make the entire session much harder to predict, but will surely work in Red Bull’s favour, given their superior downforce.

Sunday, however, is forecast to be blazing hot. The high degradation on the ultra-soft and hot conditions is likely to lead drivers to favour the soft tyre. Red Bull were quicker on this compound than Ferrari, and tend to be closer on race pace anyway, so we could still be in for a close contest on Sunday. Where Mercedes fit into this will depend on how well Saturday goes for them, but it’s a telling indication of how concerned Hamilton is that he expressed hope the weather stays dry for final practice.

While Romain Grosjean has begun describing the two halves of the grid as ‘Formula 1 A’ and ‘Formula 1 B’, Haas increasingly seems to occupy a point between the two. At least in terms of one-lap pace, the VF-18s are clearly capable of having row four to themselves on pure pace.

Charles Leclerc’s Sauber has been a frequent sight in Q3 recently. But having sat out first practice while Antonio Giovinazzi drove his car he ended Friday behind Marcus Ericsson for once. It would be a surprise if that situation remains on Saturday, but on this slower track Sauber may not be Q3 contenders this time.

The same could be true of Force India but Esteban Ocon, who adores this track, crept into the top 10 in second practice. He led an extremely close group, however, and Force India face a challenge to keep their minds on the track on what has become an extremely turbulent weekend for them.

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Longest stint comparison – second practice

This chart shows all the drivers’ lap times (in seconds) during their longest unbroken stint. Very slow laps omitted. Scroll to zoom, drag to pan, right-click to reset:

Complete practice times

Pos	Driver	Car	FP1	FP2	Total laps
1	Sebastian Vettel	Ferrari	1’17.692	1’16.834	69
2	Max Verstappen	Red Bull-TAG Heuer	1’17.701	1’16.908	64
3	Daniel Ricciardo	Red Bull-TAG Heuer	1’17.613	1’17.061	66
4	Kimi Raikkonen	Ferrari	1’17.948	1’17.153	63
5	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	1’18.036	1’17.587	71
6	Valtteri Bottas	Mercedes	1’18.470	1’17.868	66
7	Romain Grosjean	Haas-Ferrari	1’18.975	1’18.065	56
8	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Renault	1’19.128	1’18.495	70
9	Pierre Gasly	Toro Rosso-Honda	1’19.352	1’18.518	73
10	Esteban Ocon	Force India-Mercedes	1’20.065	1’18.761	71
11	Sergio Perez	Force India-Mercedes	1’20.159	1’18.850	69
12	Fernando Alonso	McLaren-Renault	1’19.690	1’18.857	62
13	Kevin Magnussen	Haas-Ferrari	1’19.187	1’18.880	64
14	Nico Hulkenberg	Renault	1’19.025	1’18.913	37
15	Brendon Hartley	Toro Rosso-Honda	1’19.841	1’18.916	73
16	Marcus Ericsson	Sauber-Ferrari	1’20.697	1’19.043	54
17	Charles Leclerc	Sauber-Ferrari		1’19.137	38
18	Lance Stroll	Williams-Mercedes	1’20.012	1’19.645	78
19	Stoffel Vandoorne	McLaren-Renault	1’20.151	1’19.712	66
20	Sergey Sirotkin	Williams-Mercedes	1’20.307	1’19.770	73

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