Raikkonen is “allowed” to win, but will he end his five-year drought?

39 comments on “Raikkonen is “allowed” to win, but will he end his five-year drought?”

1. 

   Michael Brown (@)
   2nd September 2018, 0:20

   I wonder if there will be a Russia 2017 start where the slipstreams from both Ferraris helped Bottas take the lead.
   Vettel has also been getting great starts lately and he has the inside line here. Should be very exciting for turn 1.
   1. 

      Strontium (@strontium)
      2nd September 2018, 1:26

      If anyone gets a bad start they’ll certainly be swamped. Praying it doesn’t happen to Kimi.

      Assuming fairly even starts, it’s possible that Vettel could get into the lead, although given it’s a lot narrower than Russia it would be tough (but not impossible) for Hamilton.

      Hoping nobody at the front gets desperate though, there’s potential for a big crash
      1. 

         Bebana
         2nd September 2018, 7:33

         That is why Sebastian stated that because of Kimi being on pole, he will be extra cautious on the race start.
         Kimi is only repeating that he is driving always in the same way.
         Seb will do his best since he is enough mature and trying not to be overwhelmed with emotions.
         Good luck to both of them!!
2. 

   Joao (@johnmilk)
   2nd September 2018, 0:33

   Expected the Ferrari powered cars to be higher on the speed trap, especially with all this praise directed to their PU

   It is a tough call for tomorrow, I expect Mercedes will pit Bottas very soon in order to trigger some sort of reaction from Ferrari.

   And on the contrary to what is said above if Hamilton has a good start he might jump the two Ferraris, Vettel is already on the dirty side and Kimi hasn’t been know for having the best first lap. Hamilton’s chances are being played down in my opinion, he also has a better topspeed this weekend, so he ahould be fine and there is a realistic possibility he might win.

   Ferrari’s strategies are also given too much attention, Mercedes is been doing the same or worse and thr uproar isn’t as ferocious. Toto Wolff even said that team orders are a realistic possibility from now on.
   1. 

      Jeanrien (@jeanrien)
      2nd September 2018, 8:13

      @johnmilk they probably increase the downforce (and drag) and aim for roughly the same top speed to minimize lap time instead of making a blitz at the speed camera.

      They will still be faster on the straight since more power and more dowforce provide better traction and they reach the top speed quicker. Plus they can carry more speed in corners.
      1. 

         Joao (@johnmilk)
         2nd September 2018, 10:20

         I’m talking about the all 6 cars, Mercedes engines seem to be deploying more power.
3. 

   Mer'tan
   2nd September 2018, 0:35

   I’m really hoping Kimi can win this one. It would be a good ticket to one more season in F1 for him should he want it. He’s been a GREAT #2 this year and a team player. The man who just turned the fastest lap in F1 history deserves more… But…should he choose to retire? What a way to go out! Good luck “Ice Man”.

   Ferrari Team Radio: “Kimi, your on pole!!!”
   Kimi: “Thank you”
4. 

   Forza Maldonado (@forzamaldonado)
   2nd September 2018, 3:15

   I just don’t see Raikkonen winning unless Vettel is out of contention at the end. We all know Ferrari is ruthless with team orders and with Seb trailing Hamilton in the standings, it’s hard to imagine Ferrari letting Kimi race for the win, especially if both of them are fighting near the front. Whether it’s through a direct team order, intentionally botched strategy calls, unclear communication over the radio, or some other shenanigans, I very much doubt it’ll happen.

   I apologize for the pessimism, but with the way the season has gone for Kimi (hell, his entire second tenure with Ferrari), seeing him win would be the biggest surprise of the year for me.
   1. 

      GongTong (@gongtong)
      2nd September 2018, 8:38

      I don’t see it as pessimism. It’s common sense.

      How he got there is another conversation, full of speculation (and if he gets a new contract, we might get a better look at this next year). But Kimi is well adrift in the standings. Now is time to throw full weight behind the championship contenders, both at Ferrari and Mercedes.
   2. 

      Panagiotis Papatheodorou (@panagiotism-papatheodorou)
      2nd September 2018, 11:02

      I expect Ferrari to hold back from deploying team orders this race since it is their home race. If there is a switch of positions I reckon it will be through overcutting it undercutting from Seb. Let us not exclude the potential better pace by Vettel.
5. 

   bukester (@bukester)
   2nd September 2018, 4:07

   I don’t think anyone actually thinks that Ferrari will let Kimi win. It’s not their M.O.
   1. 

      MG1982 (@mg1982)
      2nd September 2018, 5:27

      Same thing applies to Mercedes, BOT winning ONLY when HAM was like 3rd or worse. BOT never won a race while HAM was 2nd.
      1. 

         Mashiat (@mashiat)
         2nd September 2018, 6:40

         @mg1982 Um…Abu Dhabi 2017?
         1. 

            MG1982 (@mg1982)
            2nd September 2018, 8:24

            You’re right, my bad, but still doesn’t count because the WDC was secured by HAM already.
         2. 

            Panagiotis Papatheodorou (@panagiotism-papatheodorou)
            2nd September 2018, 11:03

            Doesn’t count since the championship had already been sealed.
            1. 

               Esploratore (@esploratore)
               3rd September 2018, 2:34

               Don’t forget bahrain 2018, bottas 2nd, hamilton 3rd, no team order, they just let bottas attack vettel since only he could have.
      2. 

         Kehinde
         2nd September 2018, 12:27

         You have no evidence for your claims!
         Rosberg won many times from Lewis. And apart from Abu Dhabi 2017, Hungary 2017 is also instructive on the Mercedes MO. Lewis gave Valteri his position back even though he was behind in the championship at the time.
         Valteri won 3 times last year. There is nothing that’s happened this year to suggest that he wouldn’t have won when he had opportunity. Bad luck has been his problem.
         So, comparing the Mercedes MO and Ferrari’s is apples and oranges IMO
6. 

   bull mello (@bullmello)
   2nd September 2018, 6:54

   I think Kimi will win more than one race out of the final eight in 2018. Ferrari are strong, the car is to Kimi’s liking and Vettel will need to be perfect in all race weekends to keep anyone else, especially Kimi now, from winning.
   1. 

      Angela (@angie)
      2nd September 2018, 9:39

      @bull mello It’s nice to dream, but at some point you will wake up!
   2. 

      Esploratore (@esploratore)
      3rd September 2018, 2:35

      He deserves 1 and I hope he gets it, should’ve got this one really, but more than 1 is absolutely unrealistic.
7. 

   Brolloks (@brolloks)
   2nd September 2018, 8:00

   Can anyone remember the starts of the last few Grands Prix here? How big of a disadvantage is starting on the dirty side, if any? (I know the pit straight was resurfaced recently, and Ferrari came here during the week on a filming day, no doubt to have a look at it).
8. 

   BoRa (@bnwllc3)
   2nd September 2018, 8:19

   Vettel is unimpressed with what Ferrari did, and will be burning hot at the start. We’ll see if Kimi’s ice keep cold or melt with that heat.

   I highly expect two Ferrari’s will crash into each other. Bottas is not even close to Lewis, an easy win for Lewis and “huge boos” awaiting us.
   1. 

      Panagiotis Papatheodorou (@panagiotism-papatheodorou)
      2nd September 2018, 11:04

      Agreed I expect Vettel to get a blistering start. I am also interested to see what Max and Grosjean can do in the start.
9. 

   MG1982 (@mg1982)
   2nd September 2018, 8:51

   I’m pretty sure Ferrari will let RAI win it, but only if RAI will be at least as fast as VET. If VET keeps RAI within easy reach – 1-2sec max – and proves to be faster than that, then I’m pretty sure they won’t interfere and VET will manage the undercut. Like Monaco 2017. Actually it’ll be dumb from Ferrari’s part to not let a faster VET make the undercut since he’s the title contender, he’s behind in the standings and 7 points is a lot (to lose or gain).
   1. 

      MG1982 (@mg1982)
      2nd September 2018, 8:53

      So, if you ask me, it’s pretty much only up to RAI to win or lose this race.
      1. 

         Srdjan Mandic (@srga91)
         2nd September 2018, 10:28

         @mg1982
         So it’s up to italian national TV (RAdiotelevisione Italiana) ;)
   2. 

      Kehinde
      2nd September 2018, 12:36

      Do you think, If the start positions had been the reverse at Monaco 2017, that Ferrari would allow Kimi to do the overcut on Seb? Really?
      1. 

         MG1982 (@mg1982)
         2nd September 2018, 13:51

         No. Didn’t say that or even implied it. That’s because it was impossible. Simply because RAI was slower than VET in the 1st stint, so if RAI would have been behind, VET would have drove into distance. As soon as RAI was pitted, VET started to set a new fastest lap with every passing lap. Big chances VET would passed him, but it was Monaco…. almost impossible to overtake.
10. 

    Srdjan Mandic (@srga91)
    2nd September 2018, 9:50

    Kimi needs to have a good start and build a gap in the early laps. If not he has to help his teammate against Hamilton.
    Hopefully Kimi can make it happen in the race, as he deserves a win this season.

    Then we can hear more of such emotions:
    https://youtu.be/sdw5upoAu5U
11. 

    OOliver
    2nd September 2018, 10:35

    Ferrari didn’t allow Kimi the potential to win races or finish ahead of Vettel much earlier in the season when one could say the season was open to both drivers. Now that the season is nearing it’s end, and the drivers are separated by the equivalent of two and a half race wins, we now expect Ferrari to start favouring Kimi. I very much doubt that.
    Except the new management of the team have some sympathy for him.
    1. 

       MG1982 (@mg1982)
       2nd September 2018, 11:44

       Ferrari didn’t allow Kimi the potential to win races or finish ahead of Vettel much earlier in the season when one could say the season was open to both drivers

       Not true. Do not know what potential are you talking about. He’s very unlucky too, but he messed up a lot of times. For example in Austria, what was that potential Ferrari stopped?!?!?!
       1. 

          OOliver
          2nd September 2018, 13:05

          Ferrari have organised their strategy in such a way that Kimi has been unable to win races. He is often put on a strategy to protect Vettel from the Mercedes drivers.
          Ferrari rarely need to use team orders because they’ve already used strategy manipulations.
          1. 

             MG1982 (@mg1982)
             2nd September 2018, 13:42

             Ah, come on man, let it go. It’s not like that. Whatever strategy Ferrari come up with for RAI, he never delivers. You always find something wrong with his strategy, doesn’t matter if he’s pitted first or last. In Austria RAI started ahead of VET, kept it ahead, but lost a position to VER. Obviously did not make the best out that situation, so he underperformed. Nothing to do with Ferrari, just that he’s not fast and consistent to have a real chance against the likes of HAM, VET, VER. ALO too pretty much trashed him in 2013 and 2014. He failed to make an impression against Massa too. Most part of the drivers from the current grid won’t have any problem getting the best of out of him. If he (still) was that good, be sure Ferrari would have kept betting on him… and not on ALO and then VET. He had his chance at Ferrari to show how good he is and kinda blew it. The 2007 champ was won because McLaren messed up and not because RAI came up with some impressive performances.
       2. 

          Esploratore (@esploratore)
          3rd September 2018, 2:38

          Yes, austria was a great chance to win for raikkonen, which unfortunately he blew himself, he had a great start, then dared too much on hamilton, now ofc hindsight, how could he have known that hamilton, on a 33 no dnf streak would dnf that race, or that bottas would and hamilton would be left out on a losing strategy and that he could have just defended 2nd place at that time?

          But had he done so, verstappen wouldn’t have got past and would’ve won, the pace was there that race.
12. 

    Gigantor (@kbdavies)
    2nd September 2018, 11:01

    I predict a first lap incident between the first 3 drivers. Kimi is known for first lap incidents. Vettel is known to be uncompromising, impulsive, and also to make mistakes. Lewis is now known to be too careful with those who are not his teammates.

    I predict he will either be hit by one of the Ferrari drivers, or pushed out wide before dropping down the pack.

    Any takers?
    1. 

       Panagiotis Papatheodorou (@panagiotism-papatheodorou)
       2nd September 2018, 11:10

       It would certainly spice things up. As a Ferrari fan though I wouldn’t like to see them retire in their home race.
13. 

    Phil Norman (@phil-f1-21)
    2nd September 2018, 11:10

    If Seb passes Kimi at the start then it’s game over for Kimi. If they get away as they start and Seb stays at all close to Kimi then I would bet my bottom dollar that they will manufacture a pass by Seb. Possibly alluding to Kimi beforehand that his contract is in the post ;-)

    The really interesting scenario would be if Lewis gets past Seb at the start with Kimi out front. I think only then would Kimi be given every chance to win if this status continued and the gaps opened up.
    1. 

       Esploratore (@esploratore)
       3rd September 2018, 2:42

       Yes, would’ve been a more likely scenario, and it almost happened: hamilton overtook vettel, had they not made contact it’d have been rai, ham, vet, bot, and then rai wouldn’t have been 1 vs 2 and would’ve had more chance.
14. 

    Robbie (@robbie)
    2nd September 2018, 13:28

    I would not mind at all Kimi winning this weekend, however, at this stage it would not make sense for him to take points away from Seb. Forgetting the politics in the team, or Kimi not winning in a while, or what Mercedes would do etc etc, the main task here for Ferrari is a clean start and no contact between their two drivers. Seb must finish ahead of LH at a minimum, and ideally needs the 25 points with a win, and unless Kimi is just that strong, or Seb just too weak, there’s no way Kimi should just have free reign to race like he is in the fight. Unfortunately. But it comes down to the math with this many (relatively few) races to go. If this pole for Kimi happened earlier in the season, have at it in turn one boys. At this point under the current circumstances? Kimi must not give Seb a hard time.

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