How Hamilton can win his fifth title in Mexico

2018 Mexican Grand Prix

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Lewis Hamilton won the world championship in Mexico last year and it will be a surprise if he fails to do so again this weekend.

Having narrowly missed out on clinching the championship in Austin, Hamilton goes into this weekend’s race in an extremely strong position. He holds a 70-point lead over Sebastian Vettel with 75 points available. This Vettel can only win the championship by winning all three remaining races, and hoping Hamilton somehow fails to pick up more than four.

To put it another way, if Vettel doesn’t win on Sunday than Hamilton is champion regardless of all other outcomes. And even if Vettel does take that win, Hamilton only needs to finish seventh to become champion.

This is unlikely in a season where realistically Mercedes have gone into every race expecting to finish sixth at the absolute worst. However Hamilton did finish ninth in this race last year in a damaged car following first-lap contact with Vettel.

Here’s the full breakdown on how Hamilton can secure the 50-point lead over Vettel he needs on Sunday to clinch the championship:

Vettel’s finishing position
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Hamilton finishing position1x77808385878991939495
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36067x7375777981838485
4576467x72747678808182
555626568x727476787980
65360636668x7274767778
7515861646668x72747576
849565962646668x727374
94754576062646668x7172
10465356596163656769x71
114552555860626466686970

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If the race is cut short and half-points are awarded, Hamilton will be champion in all possible outcomes.

Note that in any scenario where the two drivers end the season tied on points, Hamilton will be champion by dint of having won more races.

Constructors’ championship

Mercedes can also win the constructors’ championship this weekend. They hold a 66-point lead over Ferrari and there will be 86 points available after Sunday’s race.

A one-two for Mercedes would not necessarily secure them the title as a three-four finish for Ferrari would keep them in the hunt. However if one of the Ferraris drops out then Mercedes’ chances of securing their fifth title in a row becomes strong.

F1 Points Calculator

Work out how all the drivers’ championship standings could change using the F1 Points Calculator:

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Author information

Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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28 comments on “How Hamilton can win his fifth title in Mexico”

  1. Turn up and finish 7th……

    1. Turn up, qualify on pole, then let Vettel past with a 5 meter separation zone so he can’t collide into him this time, turn down the motor and cruise to the finish.

      1. Here is better plan qualify behind RBRs and watch bulls wreak havoc among horses and take home the title.

        1. Works too.

    2. Turn up; skip quali; start from pitlane; overtake backmarkers when they are pitting.
      if less than 5pts, then repeat in Brazil.

      1. The problem there is Interlagos and Hamilton aren’t that good a mix, something always seems to go a bit wrong for him there, so I can see him DNFing in Brazil if he still needs points. Under that scenario, presuming Vettel delivers two wins, that would suddenly make Abu Dhabi all or nothing. Hamilton really should try to wrap up the title this race.

    3. 1. Turn up
      2. Skip Qualifying
      3. Start from Pit Lane
      4. Cruise pass Formula 1.5 cars
      5. Watch Vettel crash on lap 1
      6. Watch one or both of the Red Bulls have a mechanical failure
      7. Pass Bottas via team order
      8. *Bwoah*
      9. 5-Time Champion

  2. So new World Champion this weekend.

    No doubt the Champagne and WDC shirts are already there.

    1. @dbradock heh, think about it, they had to spend money to ship the shirts from Austin to Mexico City… I like the idea of the Logistics Manager cursing the world after watching the USA GP because he then had to ship all the material across the border…

      1. According to Mercedes; and this was before Austin, they would not be planning any celebrations t-shirts for Austin as the WCC could not be won there.

  3. Only needs to finish 7th once in the next three races, even if Vettel wins them all…. Of course the title is still wide open Toto! Ha!

    1. To be fair, Toto is probably referring to the constructor’s title. There’s 129 points available, and Mercedes has a 66 point lead.

      Although– if Ferrari finishes 1-2 and Mercedes finishes 3-4 for all three remaining races, Mercedes still wins the constructor’s championship. ;)

  4. In short: A race win is a ‘must’ for Vettel to keep his slim title chance alive for at least one more race as he’d need to outscore Hamilton by at the very least 21 points to do so while for Hamilton seventh is all he needs to clinch the WDC regardless of Vettel’s finishing position.

  5. Would be good for Ferrari to win the last three races and possibly steal the WCC. That I think would give this championship good context. I believe Ferrari had all the necessary tools to beat Mercedes this year but failed to execute and Mercedes totally punished them for it.

    1. +1 @icarby , that would be nice indeed.

    2. (@icarby) It would be great to see a battle till the end.

    3. Only realistic hope is major mechanical failure or for Max/Kimi to take out Lewis at the start.

      Can’t see it happening – Hamilton is smart enough to avoid clashes and the Mercedes seems bullet proof.

      Still it would spice things up a bit….. cue tinfoil hat and Liberty executives.

      1. I honestly don’t think Hamilton can be realistically stopped unless cruel circumstances unfold. For me WDC is done, this weekend should be a formality. However, WCC should still be keeping Toto up at nights.

  6. Keep in mind that in 2007 Raikonnen also become WDC despite unlikely odds although Vettel odds are even worse due to 25 point system.

    Hamilton was 17 points ahead with 2 races to go with only Mclaren & Ferrari having a race winning car. Hamilton had to just collect 4 points over 2 races but failed and achieved 0 in China (in the gravel on pit entry) and 2 in Brazil (finished 7th after issues earlier in the race)

    1. @jelle-van-der-meer True but that is some serious clutching at straws. Vettel needs to win all three races to stand a chance. And Hamilton only needs 5 points in three races… Kimi’s odds were unlikely, Vettel’s are unbelieveable.

      1. He’s clutching more than Vettel

  7. pointless talking about how they place to influence the champion belongs

  8. As I argued in the round-up the championship should still be wide open.
    1. Mercedes 370pts
    2. Ferrari 344pts
    3. Red Bull 285pts

  9. Why is it that when a world champion is crowned there is no official celebration until months later at a stuffy private dinner? And liberty asks what they can do to improve the show? In every other discipline when a champ is crowned they make a big deal about it.

  10. To put it another way, if Vettel doesn’t win on Sunday than Hamilton is champion regardless of all other outcomes

    Well, apart from a Hamilton DNF

    1. Vettel needs a win regardless of Hamilton having a DNF. Vettel needs to outscore Hamilton by 21 points to keep the title alive.

  11. @JC That as well. Even if Hamilton were to face a DNF or even a DNS (did not start), he’d still clinch the WDC if Vettel in either of these two scenarios failed to win the race. A failure to win the race from Vettel would indeed automatically clinch the title for Hamilton regardless of the outcome of the race for him.

  12. On a plate doesn’t really count for much….

Comments are closed.