Sebastian Vettel was fortunately to avoid a penalty after his angry exchange with the FIA officials on the weighbridge during yesterday’s qualifying session.
But the reason he ended up there to begin with is also why he goes into today’s race in a potentially very strong position.
As rain began to fall in Q2 Ferrari, like all their rivals, initially sent both drivers out on the super-soft tyres. Although the harder, soft compound tyres were considered the best strategic option for the race, they were harder to get up to temperature in the damp conditions.However both Ferrari drivers fancied their chances of getting through to Q2 on the softs. “It’s still drizzling,” said Vettel on his radio. Told the rain was going to stay at the same rate, Vettel replied “then I’m happy with option”, and pitted to switch tyres.
Mercedes team principal Toto Wolff believes this has won Ferrari a handy advantage for the race. “Ferrari took a big gamble in qualifying switching switching tyres when the rain was imminent,” he said. “And it paid off. They are on the on the more robust tyre for [the race].”
Although Hamilton can expect to get off the line better on his super-softs, Wolff expects Vettel to apply significant pressure during the first stint. “They have a disadvantage at the start but a big advantage over the first 10, 15 laps which in our models shows their most favourite.
“But again it’s it’s motor racing and anything can happen. We didn’t take that risk because we thought it was disproportionate. But I can understand that Ferrari, where they are now, the only way of really staying in the fight for the constructive championship is to do things differently and take risks.”
Hamilton will have to treat his tyres carefully to stand a chance of getting through the race with a single pit stop. But another factor also threatens to play into Ferrari’s hands: The weather.
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Those starting on the super-softs – which are the Mercedes, Red Bull and Sauber drivers plus Romain Grosjean and Pierre Gasly – may have to stretch them out a long time if the teams suspect a rain shower is imminent.
Red Bull had better tyre life over a long stint on Friday and could offer more of a challenge to their rivals in the race, particularly if the rain does come. In the midfield battle, the rapid Saubers look set to wreck Haas’s hopes of taking a bite out of Renault’s lead over them in the constructors’ championship.
A significant question mark remains over Mercedes performance in race conditions as they struggled with tyre performance in the last two races. Meanwhile Ferrari look in a tactically strong position.
Will it allow them to keep their championship hopes alive? Ferrari need to score at least 13 points more than Mercedes to stop their rivals clinching the constructors’ title today.
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Qualifying times in full
| Driver | Car | Q1 | Q2 (vs Q1) | Q3 (vs Q2) | |
| 1 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 1’08.464 | 1’07.795 (-0.669) | 1’07.281 (-0.514) |
| 2 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | 1’08.452 | 1’07.776 (-0.676) | 1’07.374 (-0.402) |
| 3 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes | 1’08.492 | 1’07.727 (-0.765) | 1’07.441 (-0.286) |
| 4 | Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | 1’08.452 | 1’08.028 (-0.424) | 1’07.456 (-0.572) |
| 5 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 1’08.205 | 1’08.017 (-0.188) | 1’07.778 (-0.239) |
| 6 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | 1’08.544 | 1’08.055 (-0.489) | 1’07.780 (-0.275) |
| 7 | Marcus Ericsson | Sauber | 1’08.754 | 1’08.579 (-0.175) | 1’08.296 (-0.283) |
| 8 | Charles Leclerc | Sauber | 1’08.667 | 1’08.335 (-0.332) | 1’08.492 (+0.157) |
| 9 | Romain Grosjean | Haas | 1’08.735 | 1’08.239 (-0.496) | 1’08.517 (+0.278) |
| 10 | Pierre Gasly | Toro Rosso | 1’09.046 | 1’08.616 (-0.430) | 1’09.029 (+0.413) |
| 11 | Kevin Magnussen | Haas | 1’08.474 | 1’08.659 (+0.185) | |
| 12 | Sergio Perez | Force India | 1’09.217 | 1’08.741 (-0.476) | |
| 13 | Esteban Ocon | Force India | 1’09.264 | 1’08.770 (-0.494) | |
| 14 | Nico Hulkenberg | Renault | 1’09.009 | 1’08.834 (-0.175) | |
| 15 | Sergey Sirotkin | Williams | 1’09.259 | 1’10.381 (+1.122) | |
| 16 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Renault | 1’09.269 | ||
| 17 | Brendon Hartley | Toro Rosso | 1’09.280 | ||
| 18 | Fernando Alonso | McLaren | 1’09.402 | ||
| 19 | Lance Stroll | Williams | 1’09.441 | ||
| 20 | Stoffel Vandoorne | McLaren | 1’09.601 |
Sector times
| Driver | Sector 1 | Sector 2 | Sector 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Hamilton | 17.454 (3) | 34.122 (2) | 15.601 (1) |
| Sebastian Vettel | 34.287 (20) | 15.601 (1) | |
| Valtteri Bottas | 17.445 (2) | 34.241 (5) | 15.625 (2) |
| Kimi Raikkonen | 17.380 (1) | 34.290 (6) | 15.671 (3) |
| Max Verstappen | 17.639 (7) | 34.228 (3) | 15.911 (7) |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 17.654 (8) | 34.232 (4) | 15.894 (6) |
| Marcus Ericsson | 17.668 (9) | 34.693 (8) | 15.799 (5) |
| Charles Leclerc | 17.634 (6) | 34.783 (10) | 15.681 (4) |
| Romain Grosjean | 17.683 (10) | 34.603 (7) | 15.941 (8) |
| Pierre Gasly | 17.725 (11) | 34.869 (11) | 15.979 (13) |
| Kevin Magnussen | 17.613 (5) | 34.707 (9) | 15.965 (11) |
| Sergio Perez | 17.747 (12) | 35.014 (14) | 15.969 (12) |
| Esteban Ocon | 17.595 (4) | 34.981 (13) | 15.945 (9) |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 17.802 (13) | 34.874 (12) | 15.949 (10) |
| Sergey Sirotkin | 17.935 (15) | 35.197 (17) | 16.113 (16) |
| Carlos Sainz Jnr | 17.968 (18) | 35.065 (15) | 16.192 (18) |
| Brendon Hartley | 18.027 (19) | 35.170 (16) | 16.083 (14) |
| Fernando Alonso | 17.961 (17) | 35.255 (18) | 16.130 (17) |
| Lance Stroll | 17.882 (14) | 35.354 (20) | 16.084 (15) |
| Stoffel Vandoorne | 17.952 (16) | 35.266 (19) | 16.230 (19) |
Speed trap
| Pos | Driver | Car | Engine | Speed (kph/mph) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | Mercedes | 336.5 (209.1) | |
| 2 | Sergey Sirotkin | Williams | Mercedes | 336.4 (209.0) | -0.1 |
| 3 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | Ferrari | 334.0 (207.5) | -2.5 |
| 4 | Charles Leclerc | Sauber | Ferrari | 333.9 (207.5) | -2.6 |
| 5 | Esteban Ocon | Force India | Mercedes | 332.9 (206.9) | -3.6 |
| 6 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes | Mercedes | 332.5 (206.6) | -4.0 |
| 7 | Sergio Perez | Force India | Mercedes | 332.0 (206.3) | -4.5 |
| 8 | Lance Stroll | Williams | Mercedes | 331.8 (206.2) | -4.7 |
| 9 | Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | Ferrari | 331.8 (206.2) | -4.7 |
| 10 | Marcus Ericsson | Sauber | Ferrari | 328.9 (204.4) | -7.6 |
| 11 | Romain Grosjean | Haas | Ferrari | 326.3 (202.8) | -10.2 |
| 12 | Kevin Magnussen | Haas | Ferrari | 324.6 (201.7) | -11.9 |
| 13 | Pierre Gasly | Toro Rosso | Honda | 324.5 (201.6) | -12.0 |
| 14 | Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | TAG Heuer | 323.9 (201.3) | -12.6 |
| 15 | Nico Hulkenberg | Renault | Renault | 323.8 (201.2) | -12.7 |
| 16 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | TAG Heuer | 323.3 (200.9) | -13.2 |
| 17 | Stoffel Vandoorne | McLaren | Renault | 320.5 (199.1) | -16.0 |
| 18 | Brendon Hartley | Toro Rosso | Honda | 320.2 (199.0) | -16.3 |
| 19 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Renault | Renault | 319.8 (198.7) | -16.7 |
| 20 | Fernando Alonso | McLaren | Renault | 318.3 (197.8) | -18.2 |
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Drivers’ remaining tyres
| Driver | Team | Medium | Soft | Super-soft | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New | Used | New | Used | New | Used | ||
| Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Kimi Raikkonen | Ferrari | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | Red Bull | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Sergio Perez | Force India | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Esteban Ocon | Force India | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Lance Stroll | Williams | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Sergey Sirotkin | Williams | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Carlos Sainz Jnr | Renault | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | Renault | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Pierre Gasly | Toro Rosso | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Brendon Hartley | Toro Rosso | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Romain Grosjean | Haas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Kevin Magnussen | Haas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Fernando Alonso | McLaren | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Stoffel Vandoorne | McLaren | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Marcus Ericsson | Sauber | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Charles Leclerc | Sauber | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
Over to you
Will Vettel stop Hamilton from scoring his 10th victory of the year? Are Red Bull quick enough to fight for victory? And who will win the closely-fought midfield battle?
Share your views on the Brazilian Grand Prix in the comments.
Quotes: Dieter Rencken
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Chaitanya
11th November 2018, 14:40
Depending on weather and if it rains that call on going with harder tyres will hard in rearside. Also these new Pirreli tyres are really wierd we have seen it too many times this year going contra on tyre strategy is a wrong decision.
Rockgod (@rockgod)
11th November 2018, 14:41
IMO Ferrari’s gamble will pay realistic dividends only if the rain starts around 25-30 laps which is where softs fall off I’m right. If it rains any sooner however, it’ll equalize the whole track more or less.
That said, I don’t believe dry race would give any advantage to Ferraris unless tyres start to melt off of Mercs’ cars like in Mexico.
Joao (@johnmilk)
11th November 2018, 15:10
Weren’t the SS graining on the ferraris? That probably is the most important fact for their gamble.
We still have to see in the race if the softer tyres are quicker in race trim, weirdly that hasn’t been always the case.
With that said, if Toto says Ferrari are favourites, I expect a Merc victory with a 30s advantage
F1 in Figures (@f1infigures)
11th November 2018, 16:52
I was surprised by how competitive everyone was on softs. Apparently the red tires do not offer much of a single-lap performance advantage. It’s true that the yellow tire is very blister-prone. Don’t know how the medium tire will perform, assuming that this will be the tire used for most of the race. It might blister as well, given it is more durable, so more heat might accumulate. This may shape up to become a great race.
MaliceCooper
11th November 2018, 15:12
Ferrari still have one more chance to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2018?
Hopefully they’ll be laser- focused now on how to win in 2019.
Jere (@jerejj)
11th November 2018, 15:14
Will Vettel stop Hamilton from scoring his 10th victory of the year? – No.
Are Red Bull quick enough to fight for victory? – No.
And who will win the closely-fought midfield battle? – Sauber.
Esploratore (@esploratore)
15th November 2018, 3:42
Good prediction, I wouldn’t have expected either that red bull would’ve been that strong here.
Tricky (@tricky)
11th November 2018, 15:16
I am not sure Ferrari will benefit much.
In a dry race, they only have used SS or will need to go to mediums.
To benefit in the rain, it has to come after the SS have pitted, and heavy and sudden enough to make the switch to inters quickly. Running around slowly on old softs in a drizzle while the others are on new tyres will lose them a load of time.
When it comes down to it, with wet races you have to react, not guess the conditions a day in advance.
DaveW (@dmw)
11th November 2018, 15:57
Yeah MB should not panic if they can’t keep up in the first stint and shift to two stops. Ferrari are more vulnerable to two stops than them and the good rain scenarios are fewer.
Rockie (@rockie)
11th November 2018, 16:32
It is used because of the out lap done on it from a strategy point it’s still new.
dusty (@dusty)
11th November 2018, 17:14
This kind of data is the reason I keep coming back to this website. Please double check your tables so it’s worth coming back.