Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull, Bahrain International Circuit, 2018

Will Ricciardo still be smiling after his first year at Renault?

2019 F1 season

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When Renault returned to Formula 1 as a full constructor in 2016 Renault Sport Racing president Jerome Stoll said they would be in contention for podium finishes within three or four years.

2019 F1 season is year four for the team. But the last podium finish for a Renault remains Nick Heidfeld’s third place in the 2011 Malaysian Grand Prix.

Significant gains have been made, however. Renault has risen from ninth to fourth in the championship in the space of three seasons. Last year they were beaten only by F1’s mega-spenders Ferrari, Mercedes and Red Bull.

And having poached multiple race winner Daniel Ricciardo from Red Bull, the team will be under even greater pressure to hit that podium target. Can they do it?

Although they ended last year ‘best of the rest’, this was far from a comfortable win over the rest of the midfield. Haas were too close for comfort – it spoke volumes that it was Renault who protested Romain Grosjean’s sixth place in Italy. By end of the season Renault also hadn’t established a clear performance margin over the likes of Force India, whose financial traumas blunted their challenge, and Sauber.

But it’s easy to forget Renault made its F1 return from a very low baseline at the end of 2015, when it took over a Lotus outfit which was on the brink of collapse. Since then it has expanded its workforce rapidly and invested in its Enstone factory.

The results have been plain to see, but a significant question mark remains over whether the recent disruption at the highest level of the Renault operation will jeopardise that progress. CEO Carlos Ghosn, who sanctioned Renault’s return to F1, was arrested in Japan two months ago on charges of financial misconduct and reported to be stepping down from his role imminently. Meanwhile the planned departure of Stoll, to be replaced by Thierry Koskas, was derailed last week when the latter left the company.

The team consolidated its expansion programme during 2018. It is at pains not to grow too large too soon, especially with the possibility of a budget cap in just two years’ time. That may further constrain on how much progress they can make in the meantime.

When it comes to that ultimate measure of performance – lap time – its next step will be the hardest. Throughout the V6 hybrid turbo era the ‘big three’ teams have pulled away from their rivals. Renault’s rate of progress slowed and appeared to stall last season:

The team will be hoping its decision to prioritise the 2019 car will pay off. But even if they make substantial gains they could still end up well behind the six fastest cars, with only a low chance of hitting that podium target.

Renault’s greatest weakness remains its power unit. They haven’t been able to match the performance of Mercedes and Ferrari, particularly in qualifying, where its rivals ‘Q3 modes’ meant Renault were usually consigned to the lower reaches of the top 10 at best during 2018.

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Red Bull did not disguise its frustration at Renault’s slow progress and has now thrown its lot in with Honda. The ending of that fractious relationship may bring some relief, but it also means Renault has now lost the ultimate benchmark of performance for its power unit. Red Bull’s TAG Heuer-branded units are the only Renault-powered hardware to have won anything in F1 since 2014.

Nico Hulkenberg, Renault, Yas Marina
Ricciardo will be measured against Hulkenberg
All of this was running through Ricciardo’s mind in the middle of last year when he made his stunning decision to defect from Red Bull to Renault.

“I think at the time for sure knowing ‘yes I’m doing this, no I’m not staying’, those decisions at the time were scarier now than the reality of it,” he said at the end of the year. “I think the reality for me is exciting. There’s certainly some… there’s a little bit of nerves with that but it’s more excitement.”

What are his prospects for his first year in yellow? Having left a race-winning outfit, he will be up against a driver many consider the most deserving of a shot at a top team: Nico Hulkenberg.

Both are mature F1 talents who have staked their futures on Renault joining the front-runners sooner rather than later. The contest between the pair should be riveting. While Hulkenberg has the benefit of two years’ experience at Renault, Ricciardo at least is familiar with the power unit.

There’s no doubt Ricciardo’s reputation has taken a knock from the three seasons he spent alongside the rapid and rapidly-improving Max Verstappen. Ricciardo increasingly struggled to match his team mate’s one-lap pace during their time together.

But if Renault is going to be the team where he can win more races and ultimately compete for the world championship, he will have to assert his authority over another potentially tough rival. The rest is up to Renault, which now has to prove it has something to offer Ricciardo besides a generous pay cheque and the opportunity to not be Verstappen’s team mate.

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Quotes: Dieter Rencken

2019 F1 season

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Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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54 comments on “Will Ricciardo still be smiling after his first year at Renault?”

  1. Dutchguy (@justarandomdutchguy)
    24th January 2019, 9:05

    Heidfeld’s 2011 podium came in Malaysia, not China

    1. Also, the following statement isn’t quite correct:

      Red Bull’s TAG Heuer-branded units are the only Renault-powered hardware to have won anything in F1 since 2014.

      Red Bull did win races in 2014 with Renault-powered hardware that was branded as … Renault.

      1. The statement is accurate. Since 2014 means post-2014. In 2015 RBR were still calling their unit a Renault Pu but didn’t win a race, but when they went back to winning in 2016, 17, and 18 it was badged the TAG Heuer.

        1. Since 2014 means post-2014.

          Does it? Methinks it doesn’t, at least not in the sense that everyone would agree, without context or clarification, that “Since 2014” does not include 2014.
          Additionally, that’d still be a weird, downright artificial choice of a time frame. The current engine formula did begin in 2014, after all. The fact that Red Bull decided to re-brand the engines halfway through that era should be completely insignificant, seeing as the hardware was unaffected by this.
          Therefore, this is either a factual error in the sense that Red Bull’s Renault-powered wins in 2014 are overlooked, or in the sense that it implies a connection between branding and performance.
          Quantum states do not apply here, there is an inaccuracy one way or the other.

          1. Perhaps we’re both over thinking this. I’ll suggest that what Keith intends to point out is that we have to go back to 2014 as the last season in which a Renault badged Pu won a race. Technically, since RBR rebadged their unit as a TAG Heuer, Renault has not won a race since 2014. Technically, Renault cannot claim a ‘Renault’ Pu has won since 2014. They would not be able to advertise in, let’s say for example, a Renault domestic car dealership, with posters showing winning RBR cars with Renault badging on them, after 2014. The cars would not say Renault anywhere on them.

          2. Whatever the writer intended I feel sure “since 2014” means (i.e. means, not implies): 2015 onwards…
            I’m rather surprised anyone would query this… ;-)

          3. I’d agree that ‘Since 2014’ means it was in 2014 when last won

          4. when they last won* haha

  2. I think he’ll continue to smile.

    Having come to the conclusion that RBR is unlikely to deliver a WDC for him, he did the next best thing which was to align himself with a manufacturer team that had the potential to improve.

    There will be two big questions about Renault.

    The first obviously – will they actually finally deliver a competitive PU.
    The second will be whether or not they can deliver a car that has enough stability under braking for him to be able to pull off the sort of overtakes that have been his trademark.

    If Renault can’t deliver, especially if they can’t deliver the second, we might see a few less smiles but Dan being Dan, he’ll bounce back.

    I wish him well – we’ll still support him from here in Aus.

    1. +1

      And,

      There’s no doubt Ricciardo’s reputation has taken a knock from the three seasons he spent alongside the rapid and rapidly-improving Max Verstappen.

      No, I don’t think his reputation took a knock, not in 2018 at least. I also think MV’s rate of improvement stalled, or at least it considerably slowed down.

      1. There’s only one relevant ranking on the drivers potential, that’s the ranking done by teambosses… let’s see what’s relevant
        2014 Ric 3rd, Vet 7th
        2015 Ver 4th, Kvy 5th, Ric 10th
        2016 Ver 2nd, Ric 4th
        2017 Ver 2nd, Ric 4th
        2018 Ver 2nd, Ric 5th

        Yeah, it took a little knock, from being ranked P2 there’s not a lot of room to go up.

      2. @faulty I think we’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg with Max. His rate of improvement skyrocketed last year once he sorted out his ragged behaviour and made better decisions. Wait til he has a car that is second or first in the WCC, and he’ll be even more formidable.

        1. he sorted out his ragged behaviour and made better decisions

          Late in the season I saw him needlessly tangle with Ocon after the frenchman tried to get past his ego.

          Hamilton saw it as a needless incident as well, and he was nice enough to share that advice with Verstappen.

          1. Ya ya blah blah Ocon stuck his nose in where it didn’t belong and wouldn’t have done that to LH. Ocon was penalized. End of.

          2. Hamilton wass being a true ass after a gifted win at Brasil… instead of feeling sorry for Max, he rubbed it in. FFS it was the first thing he said when he got out of the car.

            Hamilton got taken out by Vettel in Mexico the year before…with the WDC at stake, why was he in the battle for top 3 anyways…? Hamilton sweet talks his own dicision, like I said he was an ass after Brasil.

            Ocon had no business stepping on the throttle into turn 2

    2. ++1 Moving to car manufacturer team should be a benefit, at least on paper. Plus, there is no guarantee that Honda would resolve all the outstanding issues over this winter…although possibility also exists that they might prove to be the biggest surprise of the year. Anyway, many years ago Clay Regazzoni said that his 1977 season with Ensign might just have been the most satisfying of his career. The times have changed since then, but Ricciardo certainly could still be smiling 12 months from now.

    3. @dbradock I agree. I think DR knows that there is much work to do at Renault, but then so there is at RBR/Honda. Perhaps it is because I always have lots of patience for first year relationships in F1, this being DR’s first year with Renault I think he will look at it as the big part of the learning curve in their new relationship, and 2019 will all go toward a better 2020 in DR’s and the teams’ minds. There going to do what they all are there to do. Try their best. Push. Learn. Grow. Same with RBR/Honda, Gasly, Leclerc, Stroll, Kubica etc…all in first year relationships. I think it goes without saying DR will be highly instrumental in helping the team progress, particularly because he already knows the feeling of the Renault Pu and he knows what it feels like in a Newey car.

  3. At the end of this new season, he will not be smiling at all.

    1. Yes, renault would need a crazy improvement, they were 1,5 sec behind, it’s not enough to improve more than the top teams do, they need like 3 sec improvement if top teams get 2,25 improvement, and that would still only halve the gap they have, and like always the last couple of tenths are the hardest to come by.

  4. I think it’s inaccurate to say Renault’s greatest weakness is the engine, it’s clearly the chassis, as evident by Red Bull’s performance with the same engine. It’s obvious they’re behind Mercedes and Ferrari in the power stakes, but they’re further behind with chassis performance and efficiency. I expect them to be closer this year, the effects of some of the hires they made last year and late 2017 should be felt this year.

  5. Hopefully, yes.

  6. “Ricciardo increasingly struggled to match his team mate’s one-lap pace during their time together”.
    Funny that 1 lap does not win a race unless it happens to be the last lap.
    How many times has a driver who was not on pole or not the faster of his team won a race or even finished ahead of his “faster” team-mate?
    How many times has the driver of the races fastest lap not been the winning car, but still managed to be ahead of his “faster” team-mate?
    1 lap speed is great but consistency over the whole race is better.
    “To finish 1st, you first have to finish” and that still wont guarantee you the fastest lap, but it will guarantee you a trophy and 25 points.

  7. The last statement of the article is harsh, but it is true, even Dan admitted.
    I like him and he is a top notch driver. But Max was getting the upper hand and he would never be able to beat him to a championship as he would have to play the supporting role, even if he was able to beat him on occasions.

    As for his future with Renault, I believe there is a 65% chance they will come good with some promises. If that is enough for podiums I’m not sure cause it means beating more than half of the top 3 cars and that can only happen if some of those cars get out of the way.
    But I believe he is playing the long game, a bit like Hamilton did when switched to Mercedes (and Mercedes took 4 years to become a driver’s championship contender). I know it is difficult to imagine Renault achieving the same kind of performance but back in 2012/13 people also thought Lewis was relinquish his chances when joining Mercedes.
    There are no technical changes that would allow for a reshuffle of the pecking order and I don’t think Renault found a huge chunk of performance (as even if they did, the other’s would also progress) that allows them to catch-up, but a driver like Dan can help them gain a bit more (in particular the car) and have the entire team raise their game so yes, I believe he would still be smiling at the end of this year (but next year might be a different story)

    1. correcting my last phrase: “I believe he WILL still be similing(…)”

  8. Red bull will be slower and unreliable this year so p3 is possible for renault on occasion but the top 2 is too far away at the front. For years to come. With the technical rules especially around the engine and the poor development pace of renault with the engines I don’t see them being able to even get consistent third place podiums in the next couple of years. P4 in reality is the best in constructors they can hope for. It is a big leap up from that and I don’t really see them even trying. They hope when the budgets get smaller the others fall down to their level. Not that they work up to become better.

    This is bad news for ricciardo as he in the phase as a driver where he needs and upward momentum to keep motivation and hunger for wins. Driving for midfield team at this point in his career is going to hurt him a lot mentally I think. No matter how well he drives the car ahead will simply drive away from him no matter who is in that car or what how well he drives. And worse off because the car is 99% of your results in f1 he might get overlooked when the top 2 teams need new drivers in the future because midfield positions in a renault won’t be impressive enough. He will be viewed as driver past his peak because of his drop in finishing positions when he moved from sometimes race winning red bull to solid mid field renault.

    He did not really have options to make any better choice. Sit in a broken red bull with smoking honda engine or sit in the renault in a midfield car and loads of cash. He may have confidence in renault but it is more than just couple of seasons at stake here. It is his career. Had he stayed at red bull his occasional wins (when the div 1 cars all have dnf) would have weighed a lot more than his great division 2 wins. He is a position where his future is fully at the hands of renault. And that is scary.

    1. “Sit in a broken red bull with smoking honda engine or sit in the renault in a midfield car ”
      In 2018 the RBR/Renault did the most smoking, while the Renault/Renault used as much enginecomponents and being around 1.5 sec/lap slower with equal engines. Renault haven’t scored any podiums in years… the chassis will not be 1.5 sec faster overnight, neither will the Honda PU be 1.5 slower overnight.

      1. neither will the Honda PU be 1.5 slower overnight.

        Honda is slower and more unreliable. If renault improves by couple of tenths and red bull is slowed down by a second then we will see renault occasionally finishing ahead of red bull on pace. After all mclaren was like a second quicker this year with worse chassis compared to 2017 just because they got rid of honda.

        As for engine penalties:
        https://maxf1.net/en/2018-f1-power-unit-elements-usage/
        Great job honda whereas red bull is pretty much on par with the renault factory.

      2. Matn, that said, Red Bull wasn’t without fault on their part given that there were at least two breakdowns which were due to Red Bull’s own components (the clutch failures Ricciardo had that season).

        It was noticeable that it was mainly just Red Bull, and in particular Ricciardo, who had the worst problems – the works team and McLaren weren’t as badly impacted, so it suggests that there might have been something specific to Red Bull’s integration. There have been times when Red Bull has sometimes produced custom ancillary components which have had more marginal reliability – for example, during the V8 era they produced their own air cooled alternator design, rather than the water cooled system Renault used, which did have some minor performance advantages but was also linked to the problems that Red Bull had in 2012 with their alternators.

        1. Anon,
          Check the used engine components list, RBR, Renault and McLaren are all very very close on used components.
          Ricciardo and Hulkenberg have been worst off.

          Renault however wasn’t pushing that much as RBR did, Verstappen explained that quite perfectly… Renault faught backwards, RBR forward and needed to extract every single hp out of the engine to compete with Ferrari and Mercedes. If it blew it blew…it would not have changed anything in the standings anyways… while Renault was still fighting for 4th in championship.

          1. Matn, the picture is a bit misleading though, as there were instances of Renault taking deliberate penalties to test new parts, as well as penalties for strategic reasons rather than reliability reasons.

            Hulkenberg’s total is inflated slightly because he deliberately took an engine penalty in Monza, where he was already committed to starting at the back of the grid. Renault therefore used it as a chance to throw in a new engine for free, just as how, in the 2017 Brazilian GP, Mercedes changed the entire power unit in Hamilton’s car even though he didn’t need to change them.

  9. Renault will have one of the strongest driver pairings of the grid. The engine is weak but able to deliver in a good chassis. If they get there act together with the new regulations and wings it could be possible to punch above their weight.
    If Red Bull/Honda does not deliver the fight for a podium will be a lot more entertaining and a possible podium for RIC of HUL is a possibility.
    Not sure if there is anything in this world capable to get the smile off Dannys face ;)

  10. He was in the right place at the wrong time, definitely good enough to win a world championship. It’s a shame that he didn’t get the Ferrari drive as I think he would have had stood a better chance of beating Lewis.
    I think he knows deep down that he’s made a mistake and I hope his motivation doesn’t suffer as despite the smiles, he often says things that make me think he isn’t as keen on F1 as some of the other drivers.

  11. Whether or not Ricciardo will be smiling or not really comes down to if Renault can build a front-running car/engine combination within the next three to four years. If they do and are capable of fighting for championships he’ll be all smiles and this move will look perfectly timed. If not, then he’ll watch Merc/Ferrari/Red Bull continue the way they always have and barely see the podium, and become one of the best drivers to never win the title.

    Personally I don’t think Renault will be able to do that, and even if they do build a rocketship I think Hulkenberg would beat him anyway. What will stab him harder than being beaten by the Hulk though is watching Verstappen/Gasly rock on to a Red Bull-Honda title. To me there seems to be a lot of reasons this move can go wrong and only one where it works, but good on him for gambling.

    1. I reckon Danny will have the Hulk’s measure. At the very least, all he needs to do is match his pace and not make mistakes.

      I believe the only driver to make fewer mistakes than Ricciardo is Hamilton.

      1. Yes, ricciardo is exceptionally good at avoiding crashes, and also like previous poster hinted, he could end up like moss, great driver who never won a title, moss insisted driving for english teams, and ricciardo insisted swapping to weaker teams than he had!

  12. As Ric has said when he decided to make the move…he knows what he is getting into – he isn’t expecting 2019 to be podium filled seasons in Renault. He has said this many times already that his expectations are realistic and so are mine. He will need to get used to the car and the PU isn’t suddenly going to be up there with the top two. He is indeed looking at the long game as he has said. We can speculate until the cows come home but we will just have to wait and see how things unfold.

  13. In my opinion Ricciardo left Red Bull because he knows the team now is putting everything behind Max Verstappen, and to be fair, they have been doing this for a number of years. If any driver has true ambitions on being a champion, then you need the full support of the team.
    Joining Renault was a huge risk for Daniel to take, but I think Pierre Gasly is going to find out rather quickly how difficult it is being in the same team with Verstappen.
    Verstappen is much like Hamilton, he is only happy with a team mate he can dominate, like a Bottas type personality. Gasly does not come across like Bottas, infact, quite the opposite.
    Ricciardo will have a solid team mate in Hulkenberg, but a driver I believe he can beat. With Renault’s full support, Daniel can mould the team around him which is what I think he knew would never happen at Red Bull.
    To stop Verstappen from going to Mercedes or Ferrari in the future, Red Bull have to keep him happy. Giving him #1 status within the team is an obvious and massive step towards that, despite what Horner and Marko claim in the media. All Red Bull need now is the Honda to be reliable, and that is the million dollar question. If it is not, then maybe Renault will surprise a few people!
    In 2012 there were plenty of people who thought Hamilton was crazy for ditching McLaren and going to Mercedes. Things change, and change quickly. I wish Daniel all the best!

    1. To my opinion there are a lot of assumptions in your post.

      “RBR is putting everything behind Verstappen for a number of years”, please motivatie cause francly there are no facts to back up that statement. RBR as a team and Ricciardo himself confirmed there’s no such thing as a #1 or #2 driver at RBR.The course of the season with Ricciarod outperforming Verstappen at the begining of the season speaks volumes, Baku was all about equality, so was Mexico.

      “Verstappen is much like Hamilton, he is only happy with a team mate he can dominate”
      Verstappen said he doesn’t mind what team mates he has, neither does he care about the colour and brand of his car, he’s in F1 for one thing and one things only…winning, the rest is of second importance, neither does he fear any of the other drivers.

      “To stop Verstappen from going to Mercedes or Ferrari in the future, Red Bull have to keep him happy. Giving him #1 status within the team” Honda has to perform, status is not an issue for Verstappen, or Verstappen in general is not an issue…there are no appointed 2nd drivers in F1, they all have become natural 2nd drivers.

      “Things change, and change quickly.”
      Not when the engine rules don’t change, the pecking order has been nearly the same over 5 years. Ferrari and Mercedes have gotten closer, Renault and Honda are getting closer, but there are no major shifts in the pecking order.

      1. Matn, I feel I don’t even need to read your comments any more. Have you ever heard the term “broken record”? Look it up.

        1. I can’t help people writing rubbish… cause in fact there’s al lot of rubbish in that post

        2. @juan-fanger What Matn has said is the truth and the reality for Max. Also, each side of the ‘debate’ or opinion on DR and Max and their goings on, could be accused of sounding like a broken record, no?

          1. @robbie – Your 2nd sentence is spot on. Cheers.

  14. The big winner from all this could be Hulkenberg.

    If Renault come up trumps he’ll finally get a competitive car to show how good a driver he really is. If he beats Riccardo in a fair fight his stock will rise. If he doesn’t beat Riccardo it won’t do his stock any harm as no one is expecting him to beat Riccardo. He’s almost in a no lose scenario.

    1. Yep, agreed.

  15. That is a valid point, Hulkenberg could well be in a good position. I don’t think nobody would begrudge him some success in F1. He deserves his opportunity. I really think Red Bull have taken
    the bigger gamble with going to Honda power. They are the ones with the pressure, and if it goes wrong for them, then they are boxed into a corner. They have fallen out with Renault, they know Ferrari and Mercedes engines are out of the question if they want to be competition to those teams. Its a lot of risk, as McLaren found to their peril.

  16. Given that Dan knew from the start what kind of situation he was getting into, I think his smile will stay put.
    However, I expect him (at least at the beginning) struggling to get grips on a completely different style of car than he is used to, since the chassis of the Renaults are not something exquisite like the Bulls.
    Plus, I honestly believe Hulkenberg is gonna beat him. Of course I don’t expect a wipeout. But I think the german will prevail.
    I’m thrilled for this battle, tbh. For that I really really hope Renault has a breakthrough.

    1. For sure. The reality for me is that any first year relationship is going to present a learning curve. It would be very natural to expect DR to be on his hind foot initially against NH as NH is the engrained one on the team. And as we know sometimes any ‘setback’ can put one behind one’s teammate for the whole season. Not that I am calling DR’s situation a setback but just referring to the hind foot thing and needing a little time to gel with the team. Let’s also keep in mind that while every driver likes to beat his teammate, and fans and websites will naturally compare the two, in Renault’s case it needs to be much more about both drivers working to progress the project than about them keeping things from each other in order to one-up the other. I don’t see them doing that, but rather sharing data.

  17. Really hope that Ricciardo does well and that Renault give him a decent car, would be a real shame for him never to achieve anything big.

    As for the Hulk, I really do not understand why he is so highly rated, what has he ever done in F1 to have gained such applause?

    1. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
      25th January 2019, 13:27

      @jett how’s the Hulk overrated? He drives for a top midfield team. It’s not like he’s in a Mercedes for many years… The guy is pretty quick and we’ll find out next year just how quick.

      For all we know he could well be the most underrated driver in formula 1 of all time.

      1. You said it yourself Michael ‘he’s pretty quick’ and that’s the point, isn’t that all he’s ever been? You could say the same thing about Ocon or Perez, or anyone else in the top half of the midfield. Hulk has been around for many years now and yet none of the big teams have given him a shot, if he was that good he would have surely got one by now?

        1. I don’t know, the amount of top seats is very limited, some good drivers in the midfield never got a chance in a top team, when there’s no way they’re worse than bottas.

  18. Depends on his bank account.

  19. I don’t see Dan giving up, he seems to have that Aussie spirit not to give in. Saying that I don’t believe Renault or RB will deliver this year, maybe next.

  20. He wont be smiling after year one, but people thought Lewis made the wrong choice going to Mercedes didn’t they?

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