Ferrari didn’t have the pace to challenge Mercedes in qualifying. But afterwards Sebastian Vettel hinted their cars were set up more with the race in mind.
It is surely wishful thinking to imagine Mercedes, who were eight-tenths of a second quicker than anyone on Saturday, might face some serious competition in the race. But as we have seen in previous races, the teams’ performance can vary significantly between the different tyres compounds.Ferrari, having clearly realised they weren’t going to be able to out-qualify Mercedes, took fewer sets of softs into qualifying in order to have more strategic options in the race. Compared to Mercedes they have an extra set of fresh medium tyres, suggesting they’re prepared for a two-stop soft-medium-medium strategy.
According to Pirelli drivers will have to run the soft until around lap 27 to make a soft-hard single-stop strategy work. This sounds very conservative – the hard tyre stint would only be 39 laps long – and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Mercedes come in much sooner than lap 27 if they go down this route. Even so, if Ferrari intends to gamble on a two-stopper, that should allow them to come in earlier still and take the advantage of the ‘undercut’.
Pirelli’s motorsport director Mario Isola said a soft-medium one-stop may be possible it is “really, really marginal”. Either way, Ferrari have options. But equally, either way they will have to be closer to Mercedes’ pace on Sunday to make use of them.
They should at least not have to worry about losing places to the Red Bulls at the start. The red cars were quickest of all in the speed trap, and may be able to threaten Mercedes on the long run to turn one.
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The Mercedes drivers have a battle of their own, of course, and they may fight it harder on the first lap at the Circuit de Catalunya than they did in Baku, where overtaking is less difficult.
Mercedes’ chief race engineer Andrew Shovlin elaborated on Toto Wolff’s earlier explanation. “He abandoned his final run in the second session due to a yellow flag at turn 12, which meant the battery pack was not charged ready for the final session,” he said.
“We therefore put him out on track first so he could manage his own out lap, but it meant we caught a number of the cars who left late. By the final run, it seemed that the track had lost a bit of pace and there was some gravel down so few cars were able to improve.”
Red Bull, however, could prove the undoing of Ferrari’s plan to take on Mercedes. The RB15s were very close to their pace in qualifying and have tended to go well over race stints, notably in the second stint at Baku. That, as much as Mercedes’ obvious pace, will probably make it a tall order for Ferrari to keep Mercedes from another double helping of silverware.
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Qualifying times in full
| Driver | Car | Q1 | Q2 (vs Q1) | Q3 (vs Q2) | |
| 1 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes | 1’16.979 | 1’15.924 (-1.055) | 1’15.406 (-0.518) |
| 2 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 1’17.292 | 1’16.038 (-1.254) | 1’16.040 (+0.002) |
| 3 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | 1’17.425 | 1’16.667 (-0.758) | 1’16.272 (-0.395) |
| 4 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 1’17.244 | 1’16.726 (-0.518) | 1’16.357 (-0.369) |
| 5 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 1’17.388 | 1’16.714 (-0.674) | 1’16.588 (-0.126) |
| 6 | Pierre Gasly | Red Bull | 1’17.862 | 1’16.932 (-0.930) | 1’16.708 (-0.224) |
| 7 | Romain Grosjean | Haas | 1’18.042 | 1’17.066 (-0.976) | 1’16.911 (-0.155) |
| 8 | Kevin Magnussen | Haas | 1’17.669 | 1’17.272 (-0.397) | 1’16.922 (-0.350) |
| 9 | Daniil Kvyat | Toro Rosso | 1’17.914 | 1’17.243 (-0.671) | 1’17.573 (+0.330) |
| 10 | Daniel Ricciardo | Renault | 1’18.385 | 1’17.299 (-1.086) | 1’18.106 (+0.807) |
| 11 | Lando Norris | McLaren | 1’17.611 | 1’17.338 (-0.273) | |
| 12 | Alexander Albon | Toro Rosso | 1’17.796 | 1’17.445 (-0.351) | |
| 13 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | McLaren | 1’17.760 | 1’17.599 (-0.161) | |
| 14 | Kimi Raikkonen | Alfa Romeo | 1’18.132 | 1’17.788 (-0.344) | |
| 15 | Sergio Perez | Racing Point | 1’18.286 | 1’17.886 (-0.400) | |
| 16 | Nico Hulkenberg | Renault | 1’18.404 | ||
| 17 | Lance Stroll | Racing Point | 1’18.471 | ||
| 18 | Antonio Giovinazzi | Alfa Romeo | 1’18.664 | ||
| 19 | George Russell | Williams | 1’19.072 | ||
| 20 | Robert Kubica | Williams | 1’20.254 |
Sector times
| Driver | Sector 1 | Sector 2 | Sector 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valtteri Bottas | 21.488 (2) | 28.040 (1) | 25.878 (1) |
| Lewis Hamilton | 21.560 (4) | 28.116 (2) | 26.112 (2) |
| Sebastian Vettel | 21.284 (1) | 28.357 (4) | 26.611 (6) |
| Max Verstappen | 21.685 (7) | 28.274 (3) | 26.322 (3) |
| Charles Leclerc | 21.537 (3) | 28.405 (5) | 26.513 (5) |
| Pierre Gasly | 21.833 (13) | 28.429 (6) | 26.358 (4) |
| Romain Grosjean | 21.664 (6) | 28.448 (8) | 26.765 (10) |
| Kevin Magnussen | 21.833 (13) | 28.438 (7) | 26.612 (7) |
| Daniil Kvyat | 21.802 (12) | 28.701 (9) | 26.702 (8) |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 21.713 (9) | 28.761 (11) | 26.749 (9) |
| Lando Norris | 21.732 (10) | 28.733 (10) | 26.811 (11) |
| Alexander Albon | 21.796 (11) | 28.801 (13) | 26.848 (12) |
| Carlos Sainz Jnr | 21.634 (5) | 28.791 (12) | 27.128 (16) |
| Kimi Raikkonen | 21.705 (8) | 29.055 (16) | 26.973 (13) |
| Sergio Perez | 21.886 (17) | 28.908 (14) | 27.015 (14) |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 21.979 (18) | 29.063 (17) | 27.118 (15) |
| Lance Stroll | 21.835 (15) | 28.997 (15) | 27.550 (17) |
| Antonio Giovinazzi | 21.852 (16) | 29.097 (18) | 27.559 (18) |
| George Russell | 22.113 (19) | 29.400 (19) | 27.559 (18) |
| Robert Kubica | 22.227 (20) | 29.726 (20) | 28.097 (20) |
Speed trap
| Pos | Driver | Car | Engine | Speed (kph/mph) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | Ferrari | 325.0 (201.9) | |
| 2 | Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | Ferrari | 324.2 (201.4) | -0.8 |
| 3 | Daniel Ricciardo | Renault | Renault | 324.0 (201.3) | -1.0 |
| 4 | Lance Stroll | Racing Point | Mercedes | 323.5 (201.0) | -1.5 |
| 5 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | McLaren | Renault | 323.1 (200.8) | -1.9 |
| 6 | Sergio Perez | Racing Point | Mercedes | 322.4 (200.3) | -2.6 |
| 7 | Kimi Raikkonen | Alfa Romeo | Ferrari | 322.1 (200.1) | -2.9 |
| 8 | Lando Norris | McLaren | Renault | 321.8 (200.0) | -3.2 |
| 9 | Daniil Kvyat | Toro Rosso | Honda | 321.8 (200.0) | -3.2 |
| 10 | Alexander Albon | Toro Rosso | Honda | 320.9 (199.4) | -4.1 |
| 11 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes | Mercedes | 319.9 (198.8) | -5.1 |
| 12 | Antonio Giovinazzi | Alfa Romeo | Ferrari | 319.8 (198.7) | -5.2 |
| 13 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | Mercedes | 319.6 (198.6) | -5.4 |
| 14 | Kevin Magnussen | Haas | Ferrari | 318.6 (198.0) | -6.4 |
| 15 | Nico Hulkenberg | Renault | Renault | 318.2 (197.7) | -6.8 |
| 16 | Romain Grosjean | Haas | Ferrari | 318.2 (197.7) | -6.8 |
| 17 | Pierre Gasly | Red Bull | Honda | 317.2 (197.1) | -7.8 |
| 18 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | Honda | 316.4 (196.6) | -8.6 |
| 19 | George Russell | Williams | Mercedes | 316.2 (196.5) | -8.8 |
| 20 | Robert Kubica | Williams | Mercedes | 313.4 (194.7) | -11.6 |
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Drivers’ remaining tyres
| Driver | Team | Hard | Medium | Soft | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New | Used | New | Used | New | Used | ||
| Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Sebastian Vettel | Ferrari | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Pierre Gasly | Red Bull | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Daniel Riccairdo | Renault | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Nico Hulkenberg | Renault | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Kevin Magnussen | Haas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Romain Grosjean | Haas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Carlos Sainz Jnr | McLaren | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Lando Norris | McLaren | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Sergio Perez | Racing Point | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Lance Stroll | Racing Point | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Kimi Raikkonen | Alfa Romeo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| Antonio Giovinazzi | Alfa Romeo | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
| Daniil Kvyat | Toro Rosso | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Alexander Albon | Toro Rosso | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| George Russell | Williams | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| Robert Kubica | Williams | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
Over to you
Is there a realistic chance Mercedes will fail to score a fifth one-two in today’s race? And how will the midfield battle unfold?
Share your views on the Spanish Grand Prix in the comments.
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Mike Malik (@miketial)
11th May 2019, 23:44
I was thinking more along the lines of a Soft(20)-Medium(30)-Soft(16) for one of the drivers. Is it slower?
Bruno Verrari
12th May 2019, 0:17
That’s the layman logic, indeed!
But we don’t have all that data…
khm78 (@khm)
12th May 2019, 0:57
They’ll probably will go s-s-m as trackposition is king in Barcelona. The first stints will be shorter and the last stint right on the limit….
Alonso (@alonshow)
12th May 2019, 1:47
Neither Ferrari nor Mercedes have fresh soft tyres. I guess S-M-S wouldn’t work very well with used softs for the third stint.
Mike Malik (@miketial)
12th May 2019, 8:05
It could be that, but, wouldn’t the lower track temperatures and lighter fuel loads in the later stages make the softs (even used ones) more favourable?
MacLeod (@macleod)
12th May 2019, 9:42
But Max has a new Soft so he could do that.
bosyber (@bosyber)
12th May 2019, 6:48
@miketial they however do not have a fresh set of softs (see the table above), so that might be out on that account.
Only Facts!
12th May 2019, 1:04
I can see It already… Ferrari splitting strategies leaving Leclerc out after everybody stops to hold Mercedes until Vettel catches up or open enough gap for a second stop. I think LEC’s only chance to race his own race is VER becoming a threat, forcing somebody into plan B or C.
socksolid (@socksolid)
12th May 2019, 7:29
aka the ferrari strategy or the kimi strategy. Leave one car out and hope it slows down the leaders so vettel can catch up and spin.
Alex
12th May 2019, 1:42
When your competitor is over half a second faster per lap it really doesnt matter wht your stretegy is
Chaitanya
12th May 2019, 2:57
Long run pace of Arrows was much stronger than .5sec of lap.
Coanda (@ming-mong)
12th May 2019, 3:01
Based on performance I don’t think RBR are any better off with Honda. They are still slow in the speed traps as all that downforce comes with a drag cost and they are still the 3rd best team. Nothing really gained despite all the hot air…
socksolid (@socksolid)
12th May 2019, 7:32
Honda is slower and less reliable than renault but it seems not massively anymore. I think the real difference in that honda deal deal was that honda will pay money to redbull whereas with renault it was red bull paying renault for the engines.
mixwell (@mixwell)
12th May 2019, 7:55
Two stop attack on Red bull you mean
Phylyp (@phylyp)
12th May 2019, 8:09
@mixwell – a two-stop yield to RBR is the more likely outcome.