Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes, Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, 2019

How Hamilton can win his sixth world title in the United States Grand Prix

2019 United States Grand Prix

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Lewis Hamilton will almost certainly win his sixth world championship on Sunday, barring a major upset in the United States Grand Prix.

His team mate Valtteri Bottas is the only driver left who can beat him to the championship. To do so he has to overturn a deficit of 74 points with 78 available over the remaining three races.

This means the only way Hamilton can lose the world championship is if Bottas wins all of the remaining three races, while Hamilton scores less than four points.

As far as this weekend’s race goes, the size of Hamilton’s lead means the situation is fairly straightforward.

If Bottas doesn’t win this weekend’s race, Hamilton will win the championship regardless of where he finishes. If Bottas does win the race, Hamilton needs to finish at least eighth, or finish ninth and score the fastest lap bonus point, to clinch the title on Sunday.

For Bottas to beat Hamilton to the title from this position would be the biggest championship lead any F1 driver has overturned in terms of average points needed per race.

How Hamilton can win the championship in the 2019 United States Grand Prix

In the table below, the combinations of finishing positions which would see Hamilton clinch the title at the Circuit of the Americas are shaded blue:

Hamilton’s finishing position
Bottas’s finishing position16764615957555351*5049

*Hamilton will only win the championship in this case if he also scores the bonus point for fastest lap

NB. If the race is cut short and half-points are awarded, Hamilton will win the championship in the USA regardless of the race result.

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Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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22 comments on “How Hamilton can win his sixth world title in the United States Grand Prix”

  1. if Bottas wins all of the remaining three races, while Hamilton scores less than four points

    Hamilton would only need 2 points to beat the 75 point haul Bottas would get for winning 3 races. Bottas needs fastest lap points too for Hamilton to need the aforementioned four points.

  2. Yes, fairly straightforward indeed. The simple rule to remember: Bottas would need to outscore his teammate by ‘at least’ 23 points to get the gap down to 51 or lower (anything below 52, the overall number of points available after the US GP) as Hamilton would win the WDC in any tie-score scenario thanks to his greater number of race wins.

    1. Even easier Hamilton only needs 4 points to win title now. Anything lower and championship goes on for a round longer.

      1. Even easier, Hamilton has already won the title.

      2. Not quite Chaitanya. You have to factor in Bottas’ results.

      3. Or, as it is the first piece of info available, “Has Bottas won the race?”
        No. – Hamilton has won Championship.

  3. Essentially, Hamilton could win the championship by getting the fastest lap point for each of the remaining three races.

    1. In any 2 actually as to get the fastest lap point implies you finished at least 10th

      1. And Bottas cannot win the point in those races.

  4. The more interesting table is how can Leclerc win the pole position trophy:
    – if he wins quali he’ll win the trophy;
    – if Mercedes wins quali then he has to wait;
    – if Verstappen wins quali then it depends if there was a yellow flag and who comes second ;)

    1. Jonathan Parkin
      29th October 2019, 11:43

      Ouch! That burned more than Anakin’s trip to Mustafar

    2. Don’t think any driver gives a hoot for that one. Wasn’t Ham presented with it (a tyre) a few years back, said what the hell am I supposed to do with this, and promptly rolled it down the track?

  5. Hamilton needs to finish in the top 10 to obtain the point for fastest lap.
    If he’s fastest but does not score points nobody gets the fastest lap point; if Bottas then wins all 3 races he beats Lewis by a single point.

    So Hamilton is the 2019 WDC if either:
    – Bottas does not win
    – Hamilton finishes 8th or higher
    – Hamilton scores 9th or higher and Bottas does not claim fastest lap.

    1. So if Lewis finishes 9th he still does not even need to claim fastest lap, as long as Bottas does not either.

      1. Bart, did you just verbalise what’s in the table above?
        … and still got it wrong? :P

  6. It’ll never happen, but it would be a stunning reversal if Bottas did manage to steal the title. Hamilton fails to finish all remaining races, Bottas wins them all… it could happen?

    Nah, Hamilton will walk to the title uncontested. Perhaps it’s sour of me, but I can’t wait to see another team or another driver win the title. I don’t mind who to be honest but just the difference would be nice.

  7. it could happen?

    Indeed, @rocketpanda, about 0.0000005% chance* ;)

    * Bottas win record at Merc is 6/59.
    Ham no-point record against Bottas as team-mate is 1/59.

    PS the chance of any of drivers being struck by lightning this weekend is 5x higher (about 0.000023%)

  8. Everyone is forgetting this should actually be his 7th title.
    He caved in to rosberg a few years back…

    1. Rosberg’s “designer win”

    2. … = troll fishing line I guess.
      Actually, much worse was missing out on 2007.

  9. since I’ve been seriously watching F1 this is the second time a driver is winning so much WDC in a row. I take my hat of to him but hopefully others will be in the mix next year

    1. Actually it’s the 3rth time. I forgot about Vettel

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