British Grand Prix will be called off, Ecclestone predicts

45 comments on “British Grand Prix will be called off, Ecclestone predicts”

1. 

   maiagus
   28th March 2020, 0:12

   Please someone come with a better idea that this:
   2020 season becomes a 2020-2021 season, it starts at the first GP cleared to be run and end in 2021 at the last GP postponed in 2020.
   By the next 3-4 years the calendar is adjusted 2-3 GPs by season until Australia is the first GP of the season again.
   1. 

      Neil (@neilosjames)
      28th March 2020, 0:44

      I’d rather write off 2020 (do whatever races they can, if it’s a championship then great, if not, never mind) and restart as normal in 2021.

      The problem I’d have with split-year seasons is that F1 is structured around an annual championship that follows acceptable weather conditions as it goes. There’s the winter break between seasons to produce, test and make ready the new car, and at least an overwhelming majority of the contracts (if not all of them) are year-based. Temporarily switching to split-year seasons and shuffling everything around year-to-year would be more trouble than it’s worth.
   2. 

      GT Racer (@gt-racer)
      28th March 2020, 0:55

      For a number of reasons having a 2020-21 ‘super season’ isn’t possible & as I said a few days ago it’s something that’s already been ruled out.

      For starters you have Mclaren switching to Mercedes engine’s next year something they have already confirmed they are going ahead with. Would it be fair if that switch fundamentally changed there competitiveness mid-season, For example if there in a close fight with say racing point but suddenly pull a big gap due to finding extra performance from the Mercedes engine & potentially even affect the title fight at the front by getting between Mercedes & Red Bull/Ferrari.

      Additionally you have driver contracts that end at the end of this year as well as various other supply contracts & other financial arrangements which couldn’t simply be extended.

      My understanding is that if no races have been run by August with little hope of been able to run at least 8 by the end of 2020 then the 2020 season will be cancelled & they will shift the focus on getting the 2021 calendar organised & hope things will be improved enough by then to be able to run races.
      1. 

         Jere (@jerejj)
         28th March 2020, 6:26

         @gt-racer That seems the most realistic scenario. The thing about cancelling the season altogether if no races would take place by August, and there’d be little hope to hold the minimum of eight required for a season to qualify for the world championship. I’m positive that there’s going to be some racing this year, though, and at least the eight. I’m not as pessimistic as Bernie, or many others about getting any racing this year.
      2. 

         ColdFly (@)
         28th March 2020, 8:01

         @gt-racer, McLaren changing PU partner is a challenge but not a reason to stop a super season. Interestingly it means that they’ll have two different entries as an entry means a chassis/PU combination.

         Driver change is no problem whatsoever. I don’t recall you arguing to void last season’s championship because Gasly and Albon swapped seats ;)
         1. 

            black (@black)
            28th March 2020, 9:14

            Well it’s one thing when Gasly and Albon swapped seats midseason…and a whole different thing if we stage 4-5 races in 2020 and come January 1st before we stage the 6th race of the 2020-21 championship, Hamilton, Bottas, Vettel, Albon, Sainz, Ricciardo, Stroll, Gasly, Kvyat, Raikkonen, Giovinazzi, Grosjean, Magnussen, Latifi are out of contracts.
            And you can’t just say “Ok let’s pretend the 2020 contracts still apply”. What if someone like Hamilton wants a bigger contract for post-2021 and Mercedes, with the whole economy going down, they aren’t so keen to meet his demands? What if Ferrari wants to keep Vettel but with a smaller contract and he refuses? What if Williams or Racing Point can’t handle even the contracts for the drivers that still have a valid contract for post-2021, because of financial difficulties and drop their drivers in favor of someone with big pockets, or even worse, drop altogether from the championship and we run with 8-or-less teams? Apply that logic for 20 drivers and 10 teams and that’s the problem. Are we going to have to resuffle every driver there is until something sticks because of this weird situation and call it “a fair championship”?

            And say we manage to do it, and decide to stage the 2020-21 championship. And say a few of them manage to hold races in 2020 (obviously less than 8 because if got 8, we have a very small but still valid championship) like Russia, Mexico, Abu Dhabi etc…
            Are these races going to be held two times in the same championship, like one in 2020 and one in 2021…and bring the total amount of races to 25-27 or something like that? Then if we go down that road, why not stage 2 races back-to-back for those 4-5 remaining races to bring the total amount to a valid number of GPs in 2020 and start the 2021 brand new?
            Or whichever race manages to hold a race in 2020, will not in 2021 when we stage all the GPs that were cancelled in 2020? Because that means that countries like Russia and Abu Dhabi, that spend the extra money to have a special status like the season finale, will willingly break their signed contracts to NOT stage a race?

            Either we manage to save the 2020 season, with as many races as possible, if possible… or we start brand new in 2021 because it will cause the least amount of problems.
            1. 

               ColdFly (@)
               28th March 2020, 10:26

               And you can’t just say “Ok let’s pretend the 2020 contracts still apply”

               ?? @black ?? I never said that!!
               Never even contemplated that, and find it a ridiculous suggestion.
            2. 

               black (@black)
               28th March 2020, 10:52

               @coldfly I’m not saying you said that, maybe my comment should have been a reply to the original comment from @maiagus.

               Anyway, I’m just saying that this situation is not as simple as “ok we’ve had mid-season drivers change before, it’s not going to be a problem…”, or “ok let’s have a super 2020-21 season just like that – let’s stage the few races that can be held in 2020 and then stage all the postponed GPs after that, i mean Zandvoort in December can’t be that bad…”.

               This situation is unprecedented and whichever solution comes up is not going to be as obvious as many suggest. There are A LOT of different parameters that need to be dealt with (drivers, teams, suppliers, race contracts and most important of all the entire global situation that is going on) before jumping into any scenario.
         2. 

            anon
            28th March 2020, 9:18

            @coldfly there is something of a difference in scale right now, as only a third of the grid actually has a contract for 2021.
            1. 

               ColdFly (@)
               28th March 2020, 10:22

               Not sure why people are so concerned about this, anon.
               If you are that concerned it proves to me that the WDC is almost meaningless as it seems to depend on the car you drive. (But we knew this already).
            2. 

               anon
               29th March 2020, 21:54

               @coldfly to be honest, overall it sounds more like a scenario that could result in major burnout for most of those involved – I’m not sure that it would be all that great for the welfare of those who were on the road.

               Let’s for now, work with a scenario that has the calendar starting in August, perhaps around the time of the Hungarian GP. We can assume that what would have been the mid-season summer break is going to be filled with at least a couple of races, perhaps one or two of the European rounds postponed from earlier in the season (i.e. maybe the Dutch and Spanish GPs) if the circumstances allow for that. Let’s say that they manage to salvage 4 races from those currently postponed – that, on top of the latter half of the calendar, gives us 14 races.

               As for what might come next, we know there are at least 17 races under contract for 2021, and previously there had been plans for around 22 races – although that might be thinned down slightly given the changes in the global economy. Let’s say that Liberty manages to get a couple of deals in place and gets a calendar of about 19 races in total, with the likely scenario that races from 2020 will run into January, perhaps even February, of 2021, with the 2021 calendar then resuming as planned in March.

               Even if the calendar could be spaced to create a second break period, you’re looking at, say, 33 events in a 16 month period. That’s a fairly intense workload for those staff, and might be something that could push some staff beyond their breaking point.

               We know that quite a few of those employed in the sport have already complained that they were getting burnt out by the current calendar and were resisting the push for more races. Mental health issues are already not uncommon in the world of motorsport, and there have been some anecdotal issues indicating the increased workload of people in the sport has started to cause rising problems with mental health issues that have tended to be glossed over (a problem that isn’t just F1 related, as other series have reported similar issues too).

               On that more human level, I do wonder whether pushing people to that extent after a period in which their mental health will have likely already faced a number of challenges from being confined indoors for an extended period of time really is a good thing.
      3. 

         Sensord4notbeingafanboi (@peartree)
         28th March 2020, 9:34

         Mid season engine swaps aren’t new for McLaren.
      4. 

         Phylyp (@phylyp)
         28th March 2020, 10:42

         There is a glorious mish-mash of contracts that need sorting out, I agree. But honestly, they can be broken down and tackled. And for the most part, parroting the line “let’s get this show on the road first, and then talk about the future later” would help in getting people to use the 2020 contract as the baseline for a one-year extension into 2021. Let’s remeber that until a month or two ago, getting those contracts sorted out was anyway a priority for the remainder of 2020 in order to faciliate a regular 2021 season.

         Let Liberty get on with sorting out the broadcast and circuit contracts for 2021. Broadcast contract negotiations shouldn’t be too hard, especially now that Liberty have F1 TV Pro as leverage (it may not be perfect, but it’s enough to worry traditional broadcasters). Circuit contracts can be tackled judiciously. As much as I’m no fan of sportswashing, I think that the presence of such venues and the willingness of local leaders means they can get those GPs onboard. And for the other venues, an approach of using the same terms as the previous year (or few years) would be a good starting point, and saving more complex renegotiations for a year down the line.

         At the same time, and in parallel, let the teams and drivers get on with sorting out drivers 2021 contracts, now that we know the new cars are only coming in 2022. If it means drivers pen a one-year extension, fine. If it means drivers swap teams for 2021, it’ll be a mid-season driver swap, and I – for one – wouldn’t mind seeing that happen at the bigger teams, although those drivers will likely play it safe and settle for an extension. There’s no need to conflate Liberty’s contracts with venues/teams with that of teams contracts with drivers to make things look like they’re even more complex.

         Yes, Liberty needs to do contracts with the teams as well beyond 2020, but seeing as teams have agreed to postpone the tech regs and retain budget constraints, it seems the teams will be amenable, and this discussion will not be onerous. Particularly if they decide to do a one-year extension for only 2021 to get the show on the road, and keep a separate discussion for the 2022 and onwards terms.

         Pirelli have already said they will make 13″ tyres for 2021. McLaren deciding to switch to Mercedes is a bit of a relief, because Renault and Honda were the two seemingly iffy PU suppliers, and if Renault do pull out in 2021 itself, it impacts only the works team, and Liberty can wave them a cheerful, “Nice having you over, see you soon, hopefully”. Of course, Mercedes or Honda electing to pull out would be much worse, but let’s worry about it when the problem is on the horizon.
         1. 

            ColdFly (@)
            28th March 2020, 11:23

            If it means drivers swap teams for 2021, it’ll be a mid-season driver swap, and I – for one – wouldn’t mind seeing that happen at the bigger teams

            How exciting would it be if Hamilton and Vettel swapped mid 20/21 super-season? @phylyp
            Faxperts like us will fill millions of comment sections arguing who was better shading the whole ‘ROS/HAM was better in ’16’ debate.

            PS – decided to start my own libfix
            1. 

               Phylyp (@phylyp)
               28th March 2020, 11:42

               @coldfly – I had exactly that pair of drivers in mind when I wrote that line, and for that very reason :)

               Every race win by either driver in either car will be dissected in nauseating detail by fans, a majority of whom will have made up their minds anyway before a wheel has been turned.
2. 

   Invisiblekid (@invisiblekid)
   28th March 2020, 0:12

   Bernie Ecclestone. The wack-a-mole of Formula One.

   I mean OK so he’s not entirely wrong, but it’s hardly a huge leap to come to those conclusion duh. But for now, the rest of Europe is in a worse state than the UK, so given that Canada pulled the Olympic team, they are hardly wanting the world coming to them and France and Austria come first in the EU races, a little mention of them rather than “scaring” the F1 world that Silverstone is not going ahead, it’s hardly the “look at me with my inside intel” he thinks it is.
   1. 

      ColdFly (@)
      28th March 2020, 8:07

      I think cunning Bernie is sharing all kinds of ‘inside knowledge’ views which will bring the FONK share price down so can buy the series back at a bargain.
      @invisiblekid
3. 

   Chaitanya
   28th March 2020, 0:49

   British, French, Spanish and Italian GP all 4 of these will be cancelled this year.
   1. 

      Chaitanya
      28th March 2020, 2:53

      Would also add- US, Brazil, Japan and Australia to list of cancellations for 2020.
      1. 

         NS Biker (@rekibsn)
         28th March 2020, 4:40

         Re The Canadian GP, yes, it has to happen and might as well be me. Should the event be cancelled, we, as a country, apologize for the failure to present and promote the 2020 Canadian GP. Any inconvenience or loss on the part of fans, is concerning and again, we apologize. Sorry about that.
         I tried to get John Cleese to come and offer up one of his classic apologies (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lwfuUyTMpVY) but his .. “You want me to go where and do what.??” indicated, maybe not.
      2. 

         Jere (@jerejj)
         28th March 2020, 6:21

         @Chaitanya Australia’s already there as a definite one along with Monaco. I wouldn’t worry about the late-season races, such as the Japanese, US, and Brazilian GPs, which aren’t due till October 11, 25, and November 15, respectively, at this point, though. There’s also plenty of days left till the Italian GP is due on September 6.
         1. 

            Chaitanya
            28th March 2020, 8:14

            Japan has already postponed Olympics, I suspect the main reason why Japanese GP might get cancelled would be due to screening and quarantine rules which will impact team members reaching in time. For Italy(and other West European venus) in late-Sept even if they are able to hold the sporting event, given the aftermath of epidemic it would be better to cancel it. The way epidemic has spread across US like wildfire it is going to be very hard to contain in time. Brazil is still unknown, saw quite a lot of my herping friends saying the country is under strict lockdown and who knows how long they are going to be under lockdown. Even if the fans arent allowed at venue, I hope atleast the races are held behind closed doors.
4. 

   Jere (@jerejj)
   28th March 2020, 6:37

   The Independent-article is a bit out-dated since the video in it doesn’t feature the Azerbaijan GP as one of those, nor does it state the postponement of the Summer Olympics as a definite fact.

   The COTD: Also, one of my all-time favorites.
   1. 

      Chaitanya
      28th March 2020, 8:15

      IOC and Japan both have officially agreed to postpone olympics to next year.
5. 

   frood19 (@frood19)
   28th March 2020, 6:58

   Cheers Keith, glad you enjoyed my waffle!
   1. 

      ColdFly (@)
      28th March 2020, 8:11

      You waffled me into watching it ;)
      @FROOD19
   2. 

      Jamie B
      28th March 2020, 14:12

      @frood19 @coldfly I know this is going to sound cliche, but in my opinion there was one moment during that race which became a defining moment in Hamilton and Rosberg’s rivalry (in Hamilton’s favour). When Hamilton swiped in front of Rosberg going into turn 2, Rosberg made a big mistake avoiding the collision. Had Rosberg held his ground and allowed the crash to happen, which I reckon would’ve been widely regarded as Hamilton’s fault, it could’ve had the potential to completely change the dynamic of the rivalry between these two, in Rosberg’s favour. Later on there were several moments where Hamilton forced Rosberg off the track, which he might have thought twice about had they collided here.

      Two years later at the Spanish Grand Prix, Rosberg held his ground and they crashed. If he did that in Bahrain things could have been very different. He let Hamilton get away with something there and, from a rivalry point of view, that was a big mistake by Rosberg
      1. 

         Balue (@balue)
         28th March 2020, 15:04

         Yes that’s been my exact take too
6. 

   Phylyp (@phylyp)
   28th March 2020, 7:08

   @frood19 – that’s a nice CotD. Your comment reexamines the race in the context of that season and the couple of seasons that follow. At the time the race happened, I think the two drivers and many fans had a lot of warm fuzzies to see some sharp racing, so it is interesting to be reminded of how relationships soured once the two realized there was going to be only one WDC, but two cars capable of winning it (“there can be only one”).
7. 

   Anthony
   28th March 2020, 8:57

   I say go virtual,tie all the teams race simulators together and go at it
8. 

   Islander
   28th March 2020, 9:00

   And to cap it all, this is the year Silverstone spent their reserve budget cementing over the loose manhole cover at turn 3 [remember 2014?], complete with brand new Astroturf on top. It was officially declared open by the Mayor of Northampton and a reception followed at the local Travelodge hotel. Damon Hill and Jackie Stewart gave speeches.
9. 

   Sensord4notbeingafanboi (@peartree)
   28th March 2020, 9:30

   Cassidy look at the germans. 500.000 tests a week. One test for the kiwi isn’t going to hurt. As of now 0,5% mortality rate in Germany, exactly the same as the flu.
   1. 

      matt90
      28th March 2020, 10:06

      The flu is normally quoted as 0.1% mortality. And if Germany are one of the only countries testing thoroughly enough to have accurate case numbers, then you would expect the deaths:cases ratio to be lower than actual mortality as plenty of people identified with the virus haven’t succumbed yet.

      Posts equating Covid-19 to the flu were, I thought, a thing of the past since they’ve been shown to be so totally false.
   2. 

      LosD (@losd)
      1st April 2020, 10:19

      @peartree The flu is around 0.1-0.2%. On the 27th of March (the last day with a complete count for the day when you posted) Germany had 351 death for 50,871 cases, or 0.68%, around 3-6 times higher than the flu. And that’s not counting that deaths usually happen 1-2 weeks AFTER being infected, so on a high slope infection rate, current deaths cannot be compared to current infections (this is also why many countries with flattening Covid-19 infections seem to have a higher death rate).

      If we offset by a a week, we’re looking at 19,848 infected at March 20th, which brings the death rate to 1.77%, around 9-18 times higher than the flu. However, that is probably at least partially offset by people we do not know are sick. But the Germans tests a lot, so I don’t think you can cut it that much.

      Adding to that, Covid-19 is quite a bit more infectious than the flu, with a basic reproduction number (how many each person would infect is we did nothing) around 3, while the flu spans from 1-2.
      1. 

         Sensord4notbeingafanboi (@peartree)
         1st April 2020, 20:29

         @losd yes, and I read the basic reproduction number could be worse than 3, 3-4. I reckon that number is inflated to the ramping up in testing and the fact many newly infected are veing linked to contact with very few people, considering there is an incubation period I believe it is likely the spurt of people have not been infected by a handful of people. There are a lot of carriers and they won’t feature on that reproduction number stat.
         Italians pointed out that there first patients were not in direct contact with the Chinese wave but rather they caught it in Italy from other people.
         Like I posted on another thread I reckon that the sars 2 numbers are going to gravitate more and more towards the flu numbers. The flu numbers are global estimates.
         These sars2 numbers are a result of global testing and as we have pointed out, mass testing is revealing more cases and an ever decreasing mortality rate, from 10% to 5% now 1% and the German numbers you sourced lower than 1%. Now you reckon there are more fatalities to come from these numbers, sure, and the Germans have been testing a lot, though many of these deaths come from the initial small sample of the infected so their death reflects on the low known cases at that time.
         The current level of scrutiny is unprecedented, I’m sure we will get some of the more accurate numbers we have ever gotten. There are some statistical quirks with the sars2 numbers but I believe there are possibly more mistakes in the flu estimate numbers because this is the first time the world has done testing at this scale.
         1. 

            LosD (@losd)
            1st April 2020, 21:30

            @peartree The flu estimate numbers are quite precise (but statistical in nature, of course), simply because there has been years to track the spread of different outbreaks, but they vary a lot due to the many flu-strains.

            The initial “small sample” was China, and while USA is currently doing their part to make it look smaller, it is still a huge chunk. Since their outbreak has slowed, it’s probably the closest we could have had to reality. Unfortunately, it is highly skeved, both due to their habit of not really being forthcoming, and them not having had any chance to prepare, so their death rate is definitely inflated, at least if we’re not looking for untreated numbers.

            However, the basic reproduction number is an estimate, and will always be, as it’s supposed to be calculated without effects of people becoming immune and social distancing (something we’re not going to skip, just to get better numbers :)), and we’ve seen plenty of mini-society outbreak, e.g. the South Korean church and the Italian and Austrian ski villages, that the current estimate should be one of the better we have for infectious diseases. As we’re doing more and more to slow the spread, the effective reproduction number is dropping, and that will make the basic reproductive number harder to estimate (without new outbreaks from the same strain. NOT that I want more!).

            As expected, as the German outbreak is slowing at bit (or rather, as the growth is slowing a bit), we’re seeing the death rate go up. Currently they’re at 793 deaths to 72,914 cases, so 1.09%. If we do the 7-day “trick” again, at the 24th they we’re at 32,991 cases, so we’re looking at something like 2.40%. Now will that hold? Probably not, HOPEFULLY not, as we get case numbers closer to reality due to even more testing (and antibody testing after the fact to see how many WAS sick). But unfortunately it will most probably remain a far cry from the flu.
            1. 

               LosD (@losd)
               1st April 2020, 21:37

               (By the way, my method of estimating actual death rate of course also has some pretty glaring issues, e.g. it will be affected by many not contacting authorities until they’re already getting pretty ill, which will reduce the number of days. I do believe it is more correct than just counting current case count again the current fatalities and getting a number from that, but I have no idea howmore correct, and of course the un-diagnosed cases will pull in the opposite direction)
            2. 

               Sensord4notbeingafanboi (@peartree)
               2nd April 2020, 8:44

               @losd I disagree that the flu estimates are precise, apart from oubreaks like the one in mexico 09 I seriously doubt the ill are tested to determine if they have the flu, I assume they are diagnosed by their GP, therefore presumed based on symptoms. Also to note that often stats are calculated based on census, you call a 1000 people and ask a variety of things.
               We will have more data to look at after the outbreak ends. I’m determined to understand whether this is a new thing or the world found a culprit for some of the 4 million that die from pneumonia every year.
               Finally I cannot deny that this thing isn’t very infections and that WHO recomendations aren’t sensible, I’m not trying to make it look better, I just can’t ignore that most of the people that have tested for this, tested negative, weren’t sick of it, but many sick of something else, and I can’t ignore that for instances very ill people are bloating the numbers.
            3. 

               LosD (@losd)
               2nd April 2020, 8:59

               @peartree When you can examine how diseases spread in smaller localized areas again and again, you don’t really need a lot of general samples for it to be rather precise.

               As for the rest… I don’t even know what to say. Have fun with that.
10. 

    Fer no.65 (@fer-no65)
    28th March 2020, 9:46

    How awesome… you’d think a racing series as prosperous as NASCAR, with the huge amount of sponsors they have, can cover for a few months in a crisis like this. Cutting down employees salaries in the middle of this?
    1. 

       GT Racer (@gt-racer)
       28th March 2020, 11:06

       @fer-no65 They have a lot of sponsor logo’s, But most of them aren’t worth much.

       Deals were done just to ensure as many logo’s were been seen on TV as possible to make the series seem in better health than it actually is. And on top of that the sharp decline in TV audience & race attendance over the past decade has reduced NASCAR’s value further which has hindered them been able to ask for more from these deals.

       Lot of smoke & mirrors with NASCAR & not just on the track.
11. 

    matt90
    28th March 2020, 10:06

    The flu is normally quoted as 0.1% mortality. And if Germany are one of the only countries testing thoroughly enough to have accurate case numbers, then you would expect the deaths:cases ratio to be lower than actual mortality as plenty of people identified with the virus haven’t succumbed yet.

    Posts equating Covid-19 to the flu were, I thought, a thing of the past since they’ve been shown to be so totally false.
12. 

    Kyalami_Imola
    28th March 2020, 12:36

    Apart from possibly Portugal and Germany I personally struggle to see how any European track along with USA and Brazil will be able to hold any race this year.

    Possibilities are:

    Bahrain, UAE, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, China, Portugal (Estoril or Portimao) and possibly Australia and Canada although alternate tracks may be the only way to host races there.
13. 

    Broke1984 (@broke1984)
    28th March 2020, 14:45

    Nice article by Hazel but I certainly haven’t seen an F1 car go 300mph
14. 

    Alianora La Canta (@alianora-la-canta)
    28th March 2020, 16:06

    Bernie Ecclestone predicted something I agree with? Put it on the calendar!

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