After a dramatic increase in grip compared to last year, and with conditions changing throughout the weekend, teams will need to adapt their strategies on the fly at Istanbul Park.
A somewhat shaken-up grid order – due to penalties and a damp qualifying session – means there are several interesting scenarios to play out in Sunday’s race.The first involved the driver who should have started on pole position. Despite being fastest in Q3, Lewis Hamilton’s grid penalty for taking a fourth internal combustion engine means that he will start 11th. That puts Valtteri Bottas on pole and Max Verstappen alongside him.
Once again, Verstappen won’t have his fellow Red Bull driver as close at hand as he’d like. Sergio Perez will start sixth, though he is at least well-placed to resist Hamilton’s efforts to charge up the order.
However, the Mercedes team boss also acknowledged that there was a risk of Hamilton struggling to move through the pack – and of the lead drivers disappearing up the road. “Yesterday we simulated some of these situations, and it’s very difficult to follow in traffic,” Wolff said.
“It’s a phenomenon that we’ve already seen all year but it could be something that we need to fight tomorrow. So there will be not many options left than to try with strategy and obviously hope that the front train is not disappearing in the distance.”
Hamilton himself acknowledged that “getting past people is not going to be easy,” especially if a DRS train builds up, as happened at Sochi and several other venues this year.
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One element that all the teams have as an unknown is tyre wear. Pirelli say they believe a one-stop strategy, switching from medium to hard compound tyres or visa versa, would be possible – but that a two-stop might be faster.
“I don’t see anyone using [the soft] apart from right at the very end if someone’s after the fastest lap, maybe,” said Williams’ head of vehicle performance Dave Robson. “Then how many sets of tyres do you need to use of the [hard and medium] to get through?”
Nursing the tyres is tricky at Istanbul as turn eight deals out ferocious punishment to the front-right, and backing off there can bring rivals within range on the straights that follow.
“We’ll wait and see,” said Robson. “I think it will depend on how much time you’re prepared to give up in some of the corners to keep that probably the front right tyre, in particular, alive and avoid running out of rubber completely.”
It’s not hard to imagine one driver who, faced with many places to gain and starting on the same tyres as those ahead of him, will be willing to risk an early switch to a two-stop strategy: Hamilton. Whether Red Bull deploy Perez tactically early on to cover that off will be worth watching for, particularly as the benefit of the ‘undercut’ – being first onto new tyres – is likely to be large.
Robson said he believed the race would be “tough” in strategy terms. “It’s going to be one of those races where there’s some fairly live decisions to be made.” Williams themselves have proven they can make the right calls, recently – but not every team has, when offered a sudden decision.
Tsunoda, starting on his softs, will probably be pushed to a two-stop from the outset. That might provide some early advantage to the rookie, if he can make up places at the beginning of the race. His likely early pit stop could prompt others to pit in reaction, and potentially swing more drivers towards pitting twice. This carries with it a further potential risk, as we’ve seen a few sloppy pit stops since the FIA’s technical directive ahead of the Belgian Grand Prix, particularly on the Red Bull side.
Verstappen, who starts on the off-line side of the grid, was not optimistic about getting a good launch, no doubt remembering the trouble he encountered in the grip-less conditions last year. “I don’t think that’s a great place to start on the inside because there’s no grip on the inside line, so we’ll see how that goes,” he said, pessimistically.
The Red Bull driver further downplayed his chances against Mercedes saying bluntly “no” as to whether he could equal them on race pace. “But we will of course just try to follow and see what we can do and see what happens in the race in general,” said Verstappen.
A final factor to throw question marks over teams’ calls is that there’s a chance of rain again on Sunday morning, which should clear up long before the race. Robson said that water on the track on Saturday morning had given it “a bit of a reset” and that, although the race looks set to be dry, the track would once again been green and potentially a bit greasy, as at the start of Q1, when several drivers slipped up.
“Understanding exactly how the tyres are going to work and how the drivers need to approach turn eight, in particular, is going to be a little bit of a voyage of discovery,” said Robson.
Quotes: Dieter Rencken
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Qualifying times in full
| Driver | Car | Q1 | Q2 (vs Q1) | Q3 (vs Q2) | |
| 1 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | 1’24.585 | 1’23.082 (-1.503) | 1’22.868 (-0.214) |
| 2 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes | 1’25.047 | 1’23.579 (-1.468) | 1’22.998 (-0.581) |
| 3 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 1’24.592 | 1’23.732 (-0.860) | 1’23.196 (-0.536) |
| 4 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | 1’24.869 | 1’24.015 (-0.854) | 1’23.265 (-0.750) |
| 5 | Pierre Gasly | AlphaTauri | 1’24.704 | 1’23.817 (-0.887) | 1’23.326 (-0.491) |
| 6 | Fernando Alonso | Alpine | 1’25.174 | 1’23.914 (-1.260) | 1’23.477 (-0.437) |
| 7 | Sergio Perez | Red Bull | 1’24.963 | 1’23.961 (-1.002) | 1’23.706 (-0.255) |
| 8 | Lando Norris | McLaren | 1’25.138 | 1’24.642 (-0.496) | 1’23.954 (-0.688) |
| 9 | Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | 1’25.511 | 1’24.601 (-0.910) | 1’24.305 (-0.296) |
| 10 | Yuki Tsunoda | AlphaTauri | 1’25.409 | 1’24.054 (-1.355) | 1’24.368 (+0.314) |
| 11 | Sebastian Vettel | Aston Martin | 1’25.787 | 1’24.795 (-0.992) | |
| 12 | Esteban Ocon | Alpine | 1’25.422 | 1’24.842 (-0.580) | |
| 13 | George Russell | Williams | 1’25.417 | 1’25.007 (-0.410) | |
| 14 | Mick Schumacher | Haas | 1’25.555 | 1’25.200 (-0.355) | |
| 15 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Ferrari | 1’25.177 | ||
| 16 | Daniel Ricciardo | McLaren | 1’25.881 | ||
| 17 | Nicholas Latifi | Williams | 1’26.086 | ||
| 18 | Antonio Giovinazzi | Alfa Romeo | 1’26.430 | ||
| 19 | Kimi Raikkonen | Alfa Romeo | 1’27.525 | ||
| 20 | Nikita Mazepin | Haas | 1’28.449 |
Sector times
| Driver | Sector 1 | Sector 2 | Sector 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Hamilton | 30.683 (1) | 29.262 (1) | 22.624 (1) |
| Valtteri Bottas | 30.730 (3) | 29.265 (2) | 22.779 (2) |
| Max Verstappen | 30.801 (5) | 29.333 (4) | 22.960 (4) |
| Charles Leclerc | 30.990 (6) | 29.319 (3) | 22.893 (3) |
| Pierre Gasly | 30.711 (2) | 29.361 (5) | 23.051 (8) |
| Fernando Alonso | 30.762 (4) | 29.592 (9) | 22.979 (5) |
| Sergio Perez | 31.188 (7) | 29.372 (6) | 22.983 (6) |
| Lando Norris | 31.247 (8) | 29.607 (11) | 23.028 (7) |
| Lance Stroll | 31.433 (11) | 29.592 (9) | 23.099 (11) |
| Yuki Tsunoda | 31.356 (10) | 29.544 (7) | 23.114 (12) |
| Sebastian Vettel | 31.999 (14) | 29.670 (12) | 23.074 (9) |
| Esteban Ocon | 31.965 (12) | 29.785 (14) | 23.092 (10) |
| George Russell | 31.344 (9) | 29.584 (8) | 23.273 (14) |
| Mick Schumacher | 31.967 (13) | 29.933 (16) | 23.236 (13) |
| Carlos Sainz Jnr | 32.008 (15) | 29.698 (13) | 23.471 (16) |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 32.695 (18) | 29.873 (15) | 23.313 (15) |
| Nicholas Latifi | 32.526 (17) | 30.031 (17) | 23.529 (17) |
| Antonio Giovinazzi | 32.469 (16) | 30.241 (18) | 23.530 (18) |
| Kimi Raikkonen | 33.121 (19) | 30.273 (19) | 23.635 (19) |
| Nikita Mazepin | 34.131 (20) | 30.438 (20) | 23.880 (20) |
Speed trap
| Pos | Driver | Car | Engine | Speed (kph/mph) | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Leclerc | Ferrari | Ferrari | 333.9 (207.5) | |
| 2 | Nikita Mazepin | Haas | Ferrari | 330.3 (205.2) | -3.6 |
| 3 | Nicholas Latifi | Williams | Mercedes | 330.1 (205.1) | -3.8 |
| 4 | Kimi Raikkonen | Alfa Romeo | Ferrari | 329.2 (204.6) | -4.7 |
| 5 | Antonio Giovinazzi | Alfa Romeo | Ferrari | 328.3 (204.0) | -5.6 |
| 6 | Sebastian Vettel | Aston Martin | Mercedes | 327.9 (203.7) | -6.0 |
| 7 | Valtteri Bottas | Mercedes | Mercedes | 327.6 (203.6) | -6.3 |
| 8 | Lewis Hamilton | Mercedes | Mercedes | 327.5 (203.5) | -6.4 |
| 9 | Fernando Alonso | Alpine | Renault | 326.5 (202.9) | -7.4 |
| 10 | Esteban Ocon | Alpine | Renault | 326.3 (202.8) | -7.6 |
| 11 | Pierre Gasly | AlphaTauri | Honda | 325.6 (202.3) | -8.3 |
| 12 | Mick Schumacher | Haas | Ferrari | 325.3 (202.1) | -8.6 |
| 13 | Yuki Tsunoda | AlphaTauri | Honda | 325.3 (202.1) | -8.6 |
| 14 | Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | Mercedes | 325.3 (202.1) | -8.6 |
| 15 | Sergio Perez | Red Bull | Honda | 324.1 (201.4) | -9.8 |
| 16 | George Russell | Williams | Mercedes | 322.4 (200.3) | -11.5 |
| 17 | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | Honda | 322.0 (200.1) | -11.9 |
| 18 | Carlos Sainz Jnr | Ferrari | Ferrari | 319.9 (198.8) | -14.0 |
| 19 | Lando Norris | McLaren | Mercedes | 319.6 (198.6) | -14.3 |
| 20 | Daniel Ricciardo | McLaren | Mercedes | 319.0 (198.2) | -14.9 |
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Over to you
Will Bottas take his first win of the season in Turkey? Will Verstappen be back in the lead of the championship come Sunday evening?
Share your views on the Turkish Grand Prix in the comments.
Darryn Smith (@darryn)
9th October 2021, 21:47
No. He doesn’t have the lapdog skills of an Irvine or Barrichello.
Becken Lima (@becken-lima)
9th October 2021, 22:03
Ah, Irvine. I really miss him. I remember him “lapdogging” a certain Senna, who reacted in a very happy way. In fact, in a very Senna way.
I just saw Eddie in that weird Schumacher doc. He looks the most reasonable character in that movie.
Esteban (@esteban)
10th October 2021, 0:57
Both Eddies and Flavio look the most reasonable characters ever!
Darryn Smith (@darryn)
10th October 2021, 6:41
That Schumi doc was bizarre. Lots of weird personality disorders on display in that one.
Sensord4notbeingafanboi (@peartree)
10th October 2021, 1:43
What are talking about? Bottas is the goat of being a sheep.
Bunching up is not a good strategy, ham wants free air and no drs trains. Like in russia someone is going to undercut a tad too soon and everyone will move out of Ham’s way.
The strangest speed trap chart of the season.
Jere (@jerejj)
10th October 2021, 6:36
@peartree Strangest, how? I don’t see anything unusual versus other events.
Sensord4notbeingafanboi (@peartree)
10th October 2021, 18:46
@jerejj ferrari at the top and mclaren at the bottom of the speed charts.
Darryn Smith (@darryn)
10th October 2021, 6:44
Bottas is terrible. He always lets Hamilton’s opposition through so easily and that is if he is even in position to do anything.
Psi (@psi)
10th October 2021, 10:22
Honest question. What lapdog means?
Sensord4notbeingafanboi (@peartree)
10th October 2021, 18:47
@psi obedient dog.
Kribana (@krichelle)
9th October 2021, 21:52
That speed trap of Leclerc is something. I wonder if he got a massive tow, or if that’s down to the Ferrari engine. 4 of the top fastest cars on the speed trap have Ferrari engines.
Jere (@jerejj)
10th October 2021, 6:35
@krichelle His figure is probably from his final flyer when he got that tow. A combined slipstream/DRS effect.
Balue (@balue)
10th October 2021, 7:28
@krichelle @jerejj Leclerc said they went for a very low downforce setup to begin with
AMG44 (@amg44)
9th October 2021, 21:58
Best strategy for Lewis would be an earlier pit stop and coming out in free air (if that is possible). He is starting P11 and there is a big chance he will be stuck behind a car or DRS train so pit early and come out in free air (ideally close to Russell who is P13). Hoping for an exciting unpredictable race.
Jere (@jerejj)
10th October 2021, 6:33
@amg44 DRS train is less likely on this track than in Monza. Early pitting can be risky.
Overtaking should be easier for him than other tip team drivers in the previous races.
Jelle van der Meer (@)
9th October 2021, 22:08
Bunching up the field likely wouldn’t work anyway as it likely will result in Bottas being overtaken by Leclerc or Max, I expect Leclerc to be 2nd after turn 1.
With the extra race speed Mercedes had Lewis will be top 5 prior to pitstops if not top 3 as those starting on softs will pit earlier. That leaves him the rest of the race to overtake Max and take the win.
Even if by some miracle or brilliant driving Max is leading prior to the stops there is no chance to build enough lead to stay ahead of Lewis.
Max only chance of retaking championship lead is either Lewis making mistakes or him getting involved in first corner crash.
Sadly the Merc current pace advantage doesn’t bode well for an thrilling fight for the championship at the last race of the season.
AMG44 (@amg44)
9th October 2021, 22:23
What races are you watching this season? You think Lewis will beat Max starting some 10 places behind him in a normal race?
Lewis needs some incidents, safety car or rain to close this big gap.
If Lewis starting P11 beats Max starting P2 in a normal incident-free race then Max should just retire at the end of the race.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
9th October 2021, 22:53
If the car is significantly faster it’s definitely possible to beat a p2 starter when starting p11, we’ll have to see if red bull is maybe closer in race pace.
F1oSaurus (@)
10th October 2021, 10:15
@esploratore1 And we have already seen they Red Bull and Mercedes are not “significantly” faster than McLaren and Ferrari. Sure anything is possible, but Verstappen wasn’t even able to advance past P7 in Sochi (until he got lucky with the weather lottery)
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
9th October 2021, 22:51
If mercedes keeps this advantage, but we’ll have to see cause there’s some red bull tracks coming, red bull probably really needed the 50 points gap they lost through bad luck earlier in the season as a cushion.
F1oSaurus (@)
10th October 2021, 10:19
@esploratore1 What advantage are you talking about anyway? You mean a few tenths faster in Q3? Which was largely because Verstappen messed up in Q3 again.
Plus Verstappen having one of his usual setup woes. On this track where they actually should be fastest by a country mile. Like also happened in Silverstone, Hungary and Monza. It’s not the track characteristics that are holding him back.
Zann (@zann)
9th October 2021, 22:11
Do Mercedes even want a bunch? That’s a DRS train. I don’t see the early stop either – that’d just put him back behind whatever cars he’s just got past. Surely he has to play his strongest card and go long, unless he’s really being held up with a huge gap opening in front of one car he’s stuck behind.
But really they can’t decide anything until after T2 and seeing where Max is can they, 1st 3rd or what. But I bet PlanA has to be long in the first stint. Later on a second stop could make sense, perhaps, once there are gaps.
DaveW (@dmw)
9th October 2021, 22:41
Tend to agree. Undercutting your way behind the cars you could not pass doesn’t make sense. If he can’t get by immediately, save the tires, go very long when people ahead pit, and come screaming through at the end on the softs. Key is not letting Bottas get undercut, but in theory he should just drive away from verstappen on pace anyway.
Zann (@zann)
9th October 2021, 23:36
Yes @dmw, tho I reckon the C2 will turn out to be the best race tyre, the C4 won’t even do one hot lap without overheating. A lot of them could go C3,C2,C2 I’m thinking, or C3,C2,C3. Or Lewis might try C3,C2, would be intriguing.
f12007v (@f1fan-2000)
10th October 2021, 4:14
Why not stop early for the undercut and do 2 stops. It worked well in hungary.
Jere (@jerejj)
10th October 2021, 6:34
@f1fan-2000 An early stop also has risks.
BlueChris (@bluechris)
9th October 2021, 22:45
He needs to pass Noris. Alonso, Gasly, Vettel, Perez, Leclerc, stroll and tsunoda.
Not an easy work imo and not all the drivers in front of him will be easy.
Jim from US (@jimfromus)
9th October 2021, 22:52
I think First Lap Fernando will be the one to watch at the start.
David BR (@david-br)
10th October 2021, 2:34
Yes, can’t wait to discover which bit of non-track Shorter Route Alonso exploits this time.
Jere (@jerejj)
10th October 2021, 6:29
@david-br This circuit has one, LOL.
NewVerstappenFan (@jureo)
10th October 2021, 7:28
Alonso is always the guy to watch at start.
Jere (@jerejj)
10th October 2021, 6:28
Bottas can win if he can stay ahead & his teammate doesn’t get behind at any point.
NewVerstappenFan (@jureo)
10th October 2021, 7:29
The question is, will they slow him down if he is 20s ahead?
mzs16 (@mzs16)
10th October 2021, 8:20
“Box, box, we have a slow puncture.”
Balue (@balue)
10th October 2021, 10:13
@mzs16 Undoubtedly. They’ve even pulled that before I believe.
Jere (@jerejj)
10th October 2021, 9:38
@jureo Doubtful.
Balue (@balue)
10th October 2021, 7:34
Wolff usually says the opposite of the truth so then the plan is for Bottas to slow Verstappen down. Verstappen on the dirty side could end up behind Leclerc after the start who has a stop speed advantage and is about even around the lap so this looks good for Hamilton, especially with the usual 5 kph top speed advantage over the Red Bull.
JohnH (@johnrkh)
10th October 2021, 7:38
Bottas needs to win the start first.
MG1982 (@mg1982)
10th October 2021, 8:13
No problem, he has the best car. This was supposed to be a RBR track… yet we had a Mercedes 1-2.
Mayrton
10th October 2021, 8:24
A Mercedes 1-2 is most likely and what I entered in my poule predictions. The new Pirelli is doing its job in restoring a situation everyone but Mercedes was tired off for quite some time. Pity and underlining the need for a regulation change next year.
Amaran McZuzu (@amaran)
10th October 2021, 8:54
I watched the qualify on the track. Mercedes’s cars were in a different league. They were sticking to the turns like a slug.
Amaran McZuzu (@amaran)
10th October 2021, 8:52
When it comes to defending, there is no good driver for Mercedes than Bottas.
Jeff
10th October 2021, 8:57
Look at the fastest sectors, hes 6 tenths faster, of course he will make it to the front.
BECAUSE THE MERC IS MILES QUICKER THAN THE REST OF THE FIELD
F1 in Figures (@f1infigures)
10th October 2021, 11:25
High tire degradation, a long straight with a crazily powerful DRS: Hamilton will effortlessly slice through the field.