Jeddah part two? Why Hamilton feels confident despite missing pole for title-decider

48 comments on “Jeddah part two? Why Hamilton feels confident despite missing pole for title-decider”

1. 

   Kribana (@krichelle)
   11th December 2021, 21:48

   Uffff you can feel the tension. I can sense this could go down to the last laps just like in USA. I can see Verstappen pushing the softs like crazy. Red Bull have thrown absolutely 110% for track position here just like in Saudi Arabia. We have seen that it is at time better to have a harder tyre if you are the chasing car for many laps, or only if you are Lewis Hamilton and Mercedes.
   1. 

      Cobray (@)
      12th December 2021, 3:38

      I think the USA start made Red Bull realize how important track position is vs more durable tyre and pace on the first stint. Mediums are good only if you are absolutely able to keep that place at the start.

      In Jeddah, I honestly think they were betting one more Red flag or safety car late in the race. They lacked a lot of pace for a straight-up fight.

      I honestly think they are the fastest car think weekend though. Probably something between Mexico and USA. Here I am to (hopefully) be proven wrong.
      1. 

         Just a Fan
         12th December 2021, 10:01

         +1
2. 

   Gabriel (@gabf1)
   11th December 2021, 21:56

   Skinny rear wing, less drag, more tyre wear. This is Red Bull going aggressive with a 2 stopper. Confident they can overtake with less downforce on modified track. Expect soft-medium-soft with Max. Chasing the one-stopping Lewis on hards for the win in the last few laps. An enticing prospect…
   1. 

      Green Flag (@greenflag)
      11th December 2021, 21:59

      Does RB have another set of mediums for Verstappen?
      1. 

         Gabriel (@gabf1)
         11th December 2021, 23:45

         @greenflag are those flat-spotted mediums unraceable?

         Do you think perhaps the strategy is soft as long as possible, and then to hard to the end?
   2. 

      He Man
      11th December 2021, 22:09

      So you reckon Hamilton will go from mediums to hards, rather than softs? Nearly every race here has always been a one stopper, it’ll be interesting if the track changes, change strategy that much. I reckon it’ll just be a straight right between the two – Verstappen on mediums Vs Hamilton on softs in the second stint.
      1. 

         Gabriel (@gabf1)
         11th December 2021, 23:46

         I guess it depends how long Hamilton can make those mediums going for. If less than half distance, then it’ll have to be hard, surely. Unless softs can do 20+ laps on lower fuel loads in cool temps at the end…
      2. 

         Ajaxn
         12th December 2021, 11:10

         if RB pits early-ish for Hards and try to run long then those tires should go off towards the end. If they dont run to the end then they’ll pit again and lose track position.

         Mercs will run longer, maybe to mid way, [or longer for Bottas ] and then hope their hards will be freash enough to out last the RB’s.

         The max distance on softs could be about 15 laps, they wont much of a distance/time advantage in that time. My money’s on Hamilton staying in touch, whilst keeping his tires fresh.
   3. 

      Marcin
      11th December 2021, 22:13

      They dont have another medium set. Need to go soft and hard.
      1. 

         erikje
         12th December 2021, 10:21

         They have a used medium set.
3. 

   hahostolze (@hahostolze)
   11th December 2021, 22:01

   I don’t think Red Bull are going with a two-stopper, no way. The half a second max time delta between soft and medium makes it impossible to offset a pitstop. Last year, all front-runners stopped before lap 12. A soft – hard strategy may not be ideal compared to a medium – hard strategy, but with track postion key, RB not slower on the straights, and a chance for Hamilton to be jumped by Norris / Perez at the start, I don’t see this as straight forward. Not to mention that race pace, in general, right now looks better on RB. I thought this was like Jeddah, but now I’m reconsidering.
   1. 

      David BR (@david-br)
      11th December 2021, 23:05

      @hahostolze So if events run normally, probably a big ask, a one stop would mean Verstappen stopping first, switching to hard tyres and dropping behind Hamilton, then getting ahead when Hamilton switches to hard tyres himself and the a race of cat-and-mouse with Hamilton with x-number of laps less wear chasing Verstappen at the end. Maybe but it sounds then that Verstappen’s only real chance is to stop a faster Hamilton from passing by any means necessary – as in Brazil and SA, but, supposedly, without the leeway he was given in those races, especially the first.

      It doesn’t sound that good. A two-stop with Max pushing the soft tyres as hard as possible and chasing down Hamilton sounds better for them – much easier, including in stewarding terms, to try to pass aggressively than defend wildly.
      1. 

         Gabriel (@gabf1)
         11th December 2021, 23:49

         @david-br agree with latter scenario. Problem red bull have is whether they have a good tyre to use between the two soft stints. A flat spotted medium vs a slow hard. V tricky call.
      2. 

         Ajaxn
         12th December 2021, 11:15

         This is why Bottas needs to be with in 30 secs of the leaders so that Verstappens comes out behind him, so Ham can pit and come out ahead.. im hoping this time around Bottas mananges to run longer without his tires failing like it did on that dodgy circuit last time.
   2. 

      GeeMac (@geemac)
      12th December 2021, 7:26

      @hahostolze Agreed, I can’t see Red Bull planning a 2 stopper with so much at stake (assuming a “normal” race with no safety cars). The mistake in qualifying looked genuine from Verstappen and I do think Red Bull wanted to start him on the mediums. They are probably just trying to play down the mistake to (a) not let Verstappen dwell on it and (b) try get Mercedes thinking. On Perez’s side of the garage I think they were forced into starting the soft because Perez was a bit slower in Q2, so he needed that extra run to guarantee getting through to Q3.

      This is going to be an epic finale…
   3. 

      melanos
      12th December 2021, 10:25

      A free or cheap pitstop, say SC, VSC or red flag, changes it all
4. 

   oweng (@oweng)
   11th December 2021, 22:49

   Set up perfectly for tomorrow. And I think the outcome will be fitting too… if Max keeps Lewis behind then he deserves the title. And if Lewis can get past Max then he deserves the title. As long as it’s clean of course.

   It looks like we’re set to see them run nose to tail again for the majority of the race. Can’t wait!
5. 

   Matt
   11th December 2021, 23:37

   I can’t see any scenario where max will let Lewis pass him cleanly so it’ll be down to the stewards to decide this one unfortunately
6. 

   danny
   11th December 2021, 23:38

   I worry about Perez pitting first then Merc reacting hope Merc do not react just or if Hamilton is right behind Ves lap 20 they should go for the undercut and do 2 stops it force redbull into a decision stay out and be vulnerable or pit to cover. Merc need to be reactive do not have max chasing like in france
7. 

   DaveW (@dmw)
   11th December 2021, 23:44

   I recall the camera zooming in on verstappens supposedly flat spotted medium and it looked fine. But I’m not sure why there would be subterfuge?

   Maybe RBR had no idea verstappen had that lap in the car for q3 and maybe they were trying to make sure Mercedes did not “cover” their two stop plan and also stop them from getting into t1 first.
   1. 

      Gabriel (@gabf1)
      11th December 2021, 23:51

      Yeah @dmw, I wondered that too. The flat spot may have been deliberate to try and get merc off starting on softs idea. Red Bull have engineered a difference in strategy deliberately.
      1. 

         Macademianut (@macademianut)
         12th December 2021, 0:59

         Looking at onboard and wondering why they even had to go for a second run when 1.23.1 time was definitely a top 10 time. So, they definitely staged this.

         Also, based on the onboard, it doesn’t seem that the flat spot is bad at all.

         So, they can use the Q2 mediums for the second stint.
         1. 

            Red Andy (@red-andy)
            12th December 2021, 7:23

            It wasn’t just the lap time though @macademianut – if Verstappen had gone through to Q3 on his medium-tyre run he’d have to have used the flat-spotted mediums for the race start. I wasn’t watching that bit of qualifying so I didn’t see how bad the flat spot was.
      2. 

         Ronald
         12th December 2021, 9:03

         But why make a flatspot to start on the soft? What good is it? The teams always start a lap on reds just in case. Verstappen could also have fnished that lap faster without flatspotting his mediums. 🤔
      3. 

         melanos
         12th December 2021, 10:47

         Ruining a tyre deliberately and limiting your options doesn’t sound very smart, does it?
8. 

   Fer no.65 (@fer-no65)
   11th December 2021, 23:51

   I struggle to find a reason why Max would deliberately lock up in turn 1 to change strategies. Am I missing something?
   1. 

      Ben
      12th December 2021, 0:07

      It was clear that RedBull were going to use the softs in Q2. Horner isn’t the Hollywood actor he thinks he is and his “ well now you know our strategy” when the tyre blankets revealed the mediums convinced me that their second run was going to be on the softs. The theory around the lock up is that it was to throw Mercedes off and make them think Max would prefer to be on the mediums, when in really the plan was always to start on the softs. I honestly think that was the case. Max is a worse actor than Horner and his “oh no, huge lockup” comment to what was actually a tiny lockup wasn’t fooling anyone. If they wanted to be on the mediums then Maxs first run was easily quick enough. This 100% wasn’t a forced strategy and is actually a win, win situation. If they win the race tomorrow they look smart. If they lose they blame the mistake for “forcing” their strategy and can moan about not having the pace. It’s RedBull PR 101.
      1. 

         Macademianut (@macademianut)
         12th December 2021, 1:34

         This! +1
9. 

   RP (@slotopen)
   12th December 2021, 0:45

   (@fer-no65)

   It doesn’t make much sense. I think they want to deniability.

   Softs-hard seems to be a sub-optimal strategy. But it is attractive to Red Bull because close racing favors Verstappen. He has two ways to win, being faster and crashing. Starting on softs maximizes his chances to gain track position, especially since they didn’t have confidence in getting pole.

   I think they wanted a little deniability. Just to make sure if the championship ends on the first lap it looks a little more accidental.
10. 

    Macademianut (@macademianut)
    12th December 2021, 2:16

    Looking at last year’s race, I wonder how the strategy will play out this year if VSC comes out after 10 laps — perfect timing for soft tire to medium tire change for the front-runner.

    If it VSC converts to a full SC, it will be even sweeter!
11. 

    DB-C90 (@dbradock)
    12th December 2021, 2:29

    Certainly there’s a whole difference in potential strategies between the two main players.

    I just hope we don’t end up with a strategic advantage being nullified by a team, or sister teams car “suddenly” having a terminal fault and being instructed to pull over causing a safety car that completely changes the course of the race.

    With so many “helpers” out on track, it’s going to be very difficult for one driver in particular to work his way forward if he gets trapped back behind a strategically placed team mate or sister car.

    Add to that a “strategic” mishap (Singapore anyone?) and the discussions about the final result could get very interesting indeed.

    Lots to play out tonight – should be at least a very interesting first half.
    1. 

       Macademianut (@macademianut)
       12th December 2021, 2:49

       I’m sure RBR is betting on some type of VSC or SC after 10 laps. Someone’s engine might go out.
12. 

    Ajaxn
    12th December 2021, 2:48

    As we saw in the last race, it only takes one ‘timely’ SC to undo your strategy forecasts. This championship might yet be decided by one cheap stop to make a mockery of track position.
13. 

    The Dolphins
    12th December 2021, 4:16

    Quite low chance of Safety Car for the race under normal circumstances but we’re at high mileage for a lot of components, an engine or transmission failure in an unrecoverable spot could go it. There is much yet that could go wrong for either driver: a slow pit stop, power unit failures, drs failure, tire failure (particularly if running a soft-hard strategy.)
14. 

    JackySteeg (@jackysteeg)
    12th December 2021, 4:41

    Part of me hopes that Verstappen (or Hamilton) runs away with it and this race ends up being a massive snoozefest.
    We know what F1’s rulemakers are like; if this ends up being the finale of a lifetime, they’ll see that as a reason to change the rules to engineer a winner-takes-all finale every year!
15. 

    sumedh
    12th December 2021, 5:05

    I don’t buy deliberate flat-spotting theory. Verstappen loses a set that way. And what plan did it throw Hamilton off? Did Hamilton want to start on softs and was unable to do so because Verstappen would now use softs (after he flat-spotting his mediums)? Don’t think so as Hamilton doesn’t need to do the opposite of Verstappen. Going into qualifying, it seemed like Mercedes would have a pace advantage over Red Bull and they can simply copy Verstappen’s strategy during the race if they have track position (similar to Qatar).

    I think the reason Mercedes are behind Red Bull is because they incorrectly estimated the the potential of how quick the cars would go as temperatures dropped. And hence, they went for a higher downforce wing as that would be required to generate enough downforce in the hotter conditions. But as temperature dropped, air became heavier and the lower downforce wing could also generate sufficient downforce. Add to that Max magic (which was in full force at Saudi too, albeit for only 26 out of 27 corners) and the pole position was lost by a whopping 3.5 tenths.

    The medium is still the better race tyre but I doubt how much Hamilton will be able to use it. But overtaking at the start won’t be easy as Hamilton has mediums vs Max’s softs. Going long with the mediums and for the overcut also seems difficult as Checo will force Hamilton to stop early (similar to Austin). And as the race goes further past sunset, and the temperature drops, the relative disadvantage of the skinny Red Bull rear wing will lessen. So, Hamilton overtaking Max in the later stages of the race seems less likely to me.

    I think the best chance of Hamilton overtaking Max on track is lap 6-7 until the 1st pit-stop (the timing of which Red Bull can dictate). I say this because until lap 5-6 the softs may have some sort of pace advantage. Post-which mediums will have a degradation advantage. Max’s Red Bull will also suffer from downforce till temperature drops.
    1. 

       Macademianut (@macademianut)
       12th December 2021, 6:09

       Great points.

       Does Mercedes still use their rear wing that stalls the diffuser to give higher straight line speed when DRS is not in use? If so, that could come in handy during the race when the cars don’t use DRS in the two DRS zones (unlike quali).
16. 

    Mathias
    12th December 2021, 5:58

    Thank you to the FIA and the track owner who for the first time have changed the track at the last minute, which turns out suits the mercedes better.
    1. 

       JustSomeone
       12th December 2021, 7:35

       Pick whichever story line you like best ;-)
17. 

    Ben
    12th December 2021, 7:36

    Interesting that both Mercs were slow in Sector 2 looking at speed traps and also sector times?

    Sector 2 is just straights.

    Merc saving the top speed for the race ?
18. 

    Illusive (@illusive)
    12th December 2021, 8:10

    Redbull has to 2 stops, unless there is safety car or Red flag, its advantage Mercedes. We saw in Jeddah the race pace of the Mercs, doing fastest laps on old tyres with no endplates on front wing.

    Lewis victory is pretty much ensured.
19. 

    KaIIe (@kaiie)
    12th December 2021, 9:16

    I don’t really see that Mercedes has any advantage. On this track, the undercut is so powerful, that even if/when Max runs out of grip, he surely pits first, and then keeps his track position over Lewis after both have made their stops. So, are Mercedes again betting on coming close in the last few laps with fresher tyres? That is quite a gamble on a track that is notoriously difficult to overtake.
    1. 

       F1oSaurus (@)
       12th December 2021, 9:43

       Against a driver that will never be overtaken without pushing for contact.
       1. 

          erikje
          12th December 2021, 10:33

          Hamilton is warned, so I do not think the Hamilton move (c) will be an option. You can only do it once a year I guess and he is already penalised for it this year.
20. 

    F1oSaurus (@)
    12th December 2021, 9:42

    I don’t think there is anything that Mercedes will know for sure with the amount of sandbagging and theatrics that Red Bull have been displaying. They probably tried the same already in Jeddah, pretending to be struggling and then pretend to suddenly pull 7 to 8 tenths out of “nowhere” at the end of Q3. At least they knew better this time to give Verstappen two tries to set a lap.

    Red Bull were already looking faster on the long runs and the undercut will help Verstappen extra, so not sure how they think a slower Mercedes is going to benefit from going longer. Getting pole and hoping to stay ahead with a poorer start and less grip through turn 1 was pretty much their only play to keep Hamilton ahead and then hope to control the race from there.
    1. 

       erikje
       12th December 2021, 10:34

       I agree that the better actors are at Mercedes. The rest of your story only exists in your dimension.
21. 

    Slimmie205
    12th December 2021, 10:54

    The long runs of Mercedes in Jeddah on friday were miles ahead of RB. But in Abu Dhabi isn’t. RB looked competitive in the long runs on both soft and medium compounds. I dunno about the hard tire. Mercedes usually a little beter on hards. Man.. this is so bad for nu heart haha. If Max had a good start then Lewis will be on his rail for 56 nervous laps. I don’t see Max pulling away easy at all.

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