Mercedes’ chance to take payback for last year as drivers line up behind Verstappen

After three practice sessions for the Mexican Grand Prix where he had struggled for grip, abandoned multiple flying laps due to errors while wrestling with his Red Bull and relayed more than one exasperated radio message to his race engineer, was any qualifying outcome more inevitable for Max Verstappen than securing pole position?

The world champion’s sixth pole of the year may have come at the end of a particularly scrappy trio of practice sessions, but it was still little surprise to see him on top of the times at the end of the qualifying hour. Now, he is in the best position possible to take a 14th victory and, with it, set a new F1 record for most wins in a season.

After grumbling about the grip he was able to draw from track surface at the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez over Friday and Saturday, fighting with his car over the kerbs around the circuit’s 17 corners, Verstappen and his Red Bull team managed once again to coax his car to its best at the most critical point in the weekend.

“I think every session it got a little bit better,” said the pole winner. “I think in Q3, we finally could push a little bit more with the car and [do] two decent laps.”

Despite being the most successful driver in Mexico since the race returned to the calendar in 2015, this is the first time Verstappen has secured pole at the venue. He would have started there three years ago but was penalised for ignoring a yellow flag.

He said it had been “very hard to nail a lap” during the session. “It’s very low grip and there are a few kerbs that you have to perfectly hit to actually gain time. So it’s definitely not the easiest qualifying, always. But it seemed like in Q3, we had it under control.”

The records will forever show that Verstappen took pole by a margin of three tenths over Mercedes’ George Russell, but the margin should have been much tighter. Russell’s final lap time was fractionally quicker – a matter of thousandths – until he started braking for the entrance to the stadium at turn 12. But he overshot his braking point and ran wide, ultimately costing him a chance at pole – something he did not hide his frustration over.

“Obviously I locked up just trying too hard in sector three to make up,” Russell explained. “I am disappointed because I feel like the team deserved the pole position today. The car’s been performing great but ultimately the points are scored tomorrow, and we’ll be going for that race win.”

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Russell’s team mate Lewis Hamilton secured third on the grid, compromised by a track limits violation on his first run and an engine oscillation problem which interfered with power delivery. Nonetheless Mercedes took advantage of Ferrari’s relative lack of performance to get both cars in the top three starting positions. Carlos Sainz Jnr was left down in fifth, while team mate Charles Leclerc could only manage seventh after losing 15km/h and two-tenths to his rivals ahead on the run to turn 12 and the stadium section on his quickest lap.

“There was something strange or wrong with the engine,” Leclerc explained. “Losing quite a lot of time down the straights from FP3 to Q3. Not compared to the Red Bull or Mercedes, because this has been the case since FP1 and we knew it, but there was something strange.”

If the constant chanting of “Checo! Checo!” echoing from the grandstands throughout the first two days of the weekend had not given it away, a large proportion of the fans in Mexico would like to see Sergio Perez have a strong result in today’s race. But after a “mess” of a qualifying session in which electrical glitches left him without data in his car, he will start behind the two Mercedes in fourth.

“P4 isn’t where I wanted to be, we could have been a lot higher,” Perez admitted. “P3 would have been ideal.

“We just have to look forward to tomorrow and try to have the perfect race, the atmosphere is amazing and we need to come back stronger. I will require a massive start but I still believe it is possible tomorrow.”

With the sprint down from the grid to turn one stretching to almost 900 metres, top speed is just as important as acceleration and traction off the line. That will give Verstappen confidence as, once again, he topped out the speed trap along the straight in qualifying, meaning it will be very difficult for Mercedes to beat him into the first chicane at the start unless the Red Bull’s start is dismal.

“It is always important to have a good start around here,” Verstappen explained. “I think our top speed is not too bad to defend, at least, when people are in the draft.

“We just need to focus on that. Honestly, I think if we have good race pace, then it will be a good fight anyway. But, of course, we’ll try to stay ahead into turn one.”

The world champion knows a good start can’t be taken for granted – remember how poorly he got off the line four weeks ago in Singapore. But if he does emerge out of the first chicane with the lead, it’s difficult to picture a scenario where the chasing Mercedes will be able to chase him down and take the lead from him. Even Hamilton recognises the advantages on raw pace and top speed that Verstappen likely holds over them.

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“Naturally it’s always a tough race around here, with the track temperatures and tyres,” Hamilton said. “These guys have been rapid all year long. Even at our best this weekend, still losing out to them through straight-line speed.

“It’ll be definitely difficult to get by them tomorrow, but we’ll give it our best shot. And turn one is an opportunity. So, we’ll go for it.”

Mercedes will be eager to pay Verstappen back for the manner in which he beat them at this track last year. The team unexpectedly locked out the front row of the grid but both drivers were passed by Verstappen on the run to turn one, and he controlled the race from there. Verstappen can expect Hamilton and Russell to come at him like a wrestling duo double-teaming a vulnerable opponent today.

Another driver who especially needs a good start is Valtteri Bottas. The Alfa Romeo driver surprised many by securing a strong sixth on the grid, but to say the team have a habit of making poor starts this season is an understatement. With Aston Martin starting down at the back of the field, Bottas knows he can’t afford to throw away points with a poor getaway.

“It’s a calculated risk, but I’ve had many bad lap ones this year, so even for my confidence it would be good to have a good start and lap one,” Bottas said. “I think the target is at least to try and maintain the position. If we can gain, obviously, yes. But without huge risk.”

One aspect that will help Mercedes is the high track temperatures this weekend. Having struggled with tyre warm up all year, Mercedes will take solace from Pirelli’s chief engineer Simone Berra’s view that the soft tyre will be a viable option in the race.

“While the C4 [soft] offers a good grip level, warm up is really good, even the consistency and balance,” Berra explained. “We had some rear axle decay and degradation, but the degradation is manageable, so it seems to be a raceable tyre for Sunday. In my opinion in general, all the compounds are working good, but especially the softer compounds seem to be.”

Although most drivers one-stopped last year, starting on medium and switching to hard, Pirelli predict a two-stop strategy will be the best strategy for Sunday, starting on the softs and stopping twice for mediums. However only drivers who have sufficient fresh sets of those compounds will be able to consider that route, and the soft tyres were used heavily by many on Saturday.

But despite the lack of long run data due to second practice being dominated by testing next year’s compounds, Verstappen knows he has every reason to feel confident of breaking that record for most wins in a season in Mexico.

“We don’t know because we’ve been driving on these development tyres so it’s a bit difficult to tell,” he said. “But I think the car we had today, I’m expecting it to be alright.”

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Qualifying times in full

Position	Number	Driver	Team	Q1 time	Q2 time (vs Q1)	Q3 time (vs Q2)
1	1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	1’19.222	1’18.566 (-0.656s)	1’17.775 (-0.791s)
2	63	George Russell	Mercedes	1’19.583	1’18.565 (-1.018s)	1’18.079 (-0.486s)
3	44	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	1’19.169	1’18.552 (-0.617s)	1’18.084 (-0.468s)
4	11	Sergio Perez	Red Bull	1’19.706	1’18.615 (-1.091s)	1’18.128 (-0.487s)
5	55	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Ferrari	1’19.566	1’18.560 (-1.006s)	1’18.351 (-0.209s)
6	77	Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo-Ferrari	1’19.523	1’18.762 (-0.761s)	1’18.401 (-0.361s)
7	16	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	1’19.505	1’19.109 (-0.396s)	1’18.555 (-0.554s)
8	4	Lando Norris	McLaren-Mercedes	1’19.857	1’19.119 (-0.738s)	1’18.721 (-0.398s)
9	14	Fernando Alonso	Alpine-Renault	1’20.006	1’19.272 (-0.734s)	1’18.939 (-0.333s)
10	31	Esteban Ocon	Alpine-Renault	1’19.945	1’19.081 (-0.864s)	1’19.010 (-0.071s)
11	3	Daniel Ricciardo	McLaren-Mercedes	1’20.279	1’19.325 (-0.954s)	Missed by 0.053s
12	24	Zhou Guanyu	Alfa Romeo-Ferrari	1’20.283	1’19.476 (-0.807s)	Missed by 0.204s
13	22	Yuki Tsunoda	AlphaTauri-Red Bull	1’19.907	1’19.589 (-0.318s)	Missed by 0.317s
14	10	Pierre Gasly	AlphaTauri-Red Bull	1’20.256	1’19.672 (-0.584s)	Missed by 0.400s
15	20	Kevin Magnussen	Haas-Ferrari	1’20.293	1’19.833 (-0.460s)	Missed by 0.561s
16	47	Mick Schumacher	Haas-Ferrari	1’20.419	Missed by 0.126s
17	5	Sebastian Vettel	Aston Martin-Mercedes	1’20.419	Missed by 0.126s
18	18	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin-Mercedes	1’20.520	Missed by 0.227s
19	23	Alexander Albon	Williams-Mercedes	1’20.859	Missed by 0.566s
20	6	Nicholas Latifi	Williams-Mercedes	1’21.167	Missed by 0.874s

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Sector times

Position	Number	Driver	Sector one	Sector two	Sector three	Ultimate lap	Deficit to ultimate lap
1	1	Max Verstappen	27.49 (1)	30.244 (4)	20.041 (1)	1’17.775	–
2	63	George Russell	27.697 (6)	30.063 (1)	20.223 (3)	1’17.983	0.096
3	44	Lewis Hamilton	27.616 (3)	30.069 (2)	20.3 (6)	1’17.985	0.099
4	11	Sergio Perez	27.585 (2)	30.22 (3)	20.26 (4)	1’18.065	0.063
5	55	Carlos Sainz Jnr	27.662 (5)	30.25 (5)	20.167 (2)	1’18.079	0.272
6	77	Valtteri Bottas	27.653 (4)	30.338 (7)	20.389 (7)	1’18.380	0.021
7	16	Charles Leclerc	27.92 (12)	30.312 (6)	20.282 (5)	1’18.514	0.041
8	4	Lando Norris	27.767 (7)	30.544 (9)	20.41 (8)	1’18.721	–
9	14	Fernando Alonso	28.035 (16)	30.393 (8)	20.497 (11)	1’18.925	0.014
10	31	Esteban Ocon	27.892 (9)	30.574 (10)	20.47 (9)	1’18.936	0.074
11	3	Daniel Ricciardo	27.867 (8)	30.954 (13)	20.504 (12)	1’19.325	–
12	24	Zhou Guanyu	28.103 (17)	30.864 (12)	20.493 (10)	1’19.460	0.016
13	22	Yuki Tsunoda	27.898 (10)	30.86 (11)	20.727 (15)	1’19.485	0.104
14	10	Pierre Gasly	27.919 (11)	30.971 (14)	20.77 (16)	1’19.660	0.012
15	47	Mick Schumacher	27.966 (14)	31.032 (15)	20.697 (14)	1’19.695	0.724
16	20	Kevin Magnussen	27.997 (15)	31.144 (16)	20.685 (13)	1’19.826	0.007
17	18	Lance Stroll	28.298 (19)	31.189 (17)	20.89 (18)	1’20.377	0.143
18	5	Sebastian Vettel	28.367 (20)	31.224 (18)	20.828 (17)	1’20.419	–
19	23	Alexander Albon	27.933 (13)	31.658 (19)	20.989 (19)	1’20.580	0.279
20	6	Nicholas Latifi	28.131 (18)	31.744 (20)	21.101 (20)	1’20.976	0.191

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Speed trap

Position	Number	Driver	Car	Engine	Model	Max kph (mph)
1	20	Kevin Magnussen	Haas	Ferrari	VF-22	351.7 (218.5)
2	47	Mick Schumacher	Haas	Ferrari	VF-22	351.6 (218.5)
3	23	Alexander Albon	Williams	Mercedes	FW44	350.9 (218.0)
4	11	Sergio Perez	Red Bull	Red Bull	RB18	350.8 (218.0)
5	1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	Red Bull	RB18	350.8 (218.0)
6	44	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	Mercedes	W13	348.4 (216.5)
7	6	Nicholas Latifi	Williams	Mercedes	FW44	348.3 (216.4)
8	10	Pierre Gasly	AlphaTauri	Red Bull	AT03	348.3 (216.4)
9	24	Zhou Guanyu	Alfa Romeo	Ferrari	C42	347.8 (216.1)
10	22	Yuki Tsunoda	AlphaTauri	Red Bull	AT03	347.2 (215.7)
11	4	Lando Norris	McLaren	Mercedes	MCL36	347 (215.6)
12	55	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Ferrari	Ferrari	F1-75	346.8 (215.5)
13	77	Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo	Ferrari	C42	346.7 (215.4)
14	63	George Russell	Mercedes	Mercedes	W13	346.1 (215.1)
15	31	Esteban Ocon	Alpine	Renault	A522	346.1 (215.1)
16	16	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	Ferrari	F1-75	346.1 (215.1)
17	14	Fernando Alonso	Alpine	Renault	A522	345.9 (214.9)
18	3	Daniel Ricciardo	McLaren	Mercedes	MCL36	345.6 (214.7)
19	5	Sebastian Vettel	Aston Martin	Mercedes	AMR22	344.6 (214.1)
20	18	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	Mercedes	AMR22	344 (213.8)

Over to you

Will Verstappen see off the Mercedes challenge to take a record win? Share your views on the Mexican Grand Prix in the comments.

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