Verstappen faces a tricky tyre choice, rumours of rain – and a fierce rival

A grand prix distance, by regulation, is 305 kilometres. But an exception is made for Monaco, where a shorter distance of 260km is used.

Cynics might say the real race distance is actually just 200 metres – roughly the run from the timing line on the grid to Sainte Devote, the first corner.

Although the idea that the Monaco Grand Prix is little more than a procession where pole position all but guarantees victory, it’s not quite the can’t-miss opportunity many claim it is. In fact, over the last 30 races held around the principality, the driver who led the field through Sainte Devote and up the hill at the start has gone on to win the race just under two-thirds of the time.

Pretty strong odds, sure. But it also means that a driver who doesn’t win the race to turn one will end up reaching the chequered flag first every three Monaco Grands Prix, on average.

And after a spectacular qualifying session that may well go down as the most competitive ever seen around F1’s most historic course, there are plenty of reasons why Sunday’s race may be Monte Carlo’s most intriguing for some time.

Although Max Verstappen managed to deny Fernando Alonso his first pole position for 216 world championship grands prix, it could hardly have been closer. Verstappen crossed the line just 0.084s before Alonso had on his final flyer, but it could easily have been different. The Aston Martin was two tenths up entering the Swimming Pool, but the Red Bull’s superior speed through the final sector – especially under braking for Rascasse – ultimately secured Verstappen the most important pole of the season.

“I knew that going into this weekend it was going to be tight around here,” Verstappen admitted after the session. “It has proven that in qualifying.”

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Traditionally, Verstappen would be considered to already have one hand on the winner’s trophy. But he will have to face down immediate danger from the Aston Martin alongside him as the lights go out on Sunday – and he knows it.

“It’s just about having a clean start,” Verstappen said, “There’s always chaos involved in Monaco. But I think our race pace, in general the behaviour of the car on the tyres is fine.”

Starting on the front row of the grid behind a Red Bull for the third time this season – and the second in two rounds – Alonso has a 50% success rate of winning the run to turn one from there in 2023, having beaten Sergio Perez off the line in Jeddah in round two.

“The start has been very good for us this year, it’s true,” Alonso mused. “And Max maybe has been a little bit inconsistent sometimes. When he’s good, it’s as good as we are and sometimes a little bit worse.”

This is the first time this year Alonso and Verstappen have shared the front row of a grid. It brings Verstappen into close contact with perhaps the best-equipped driver outside his team.

We’ve seen how firmly Verstappen is prepared to deal with some rivals. But there hasn’t been much wheel-to-wheel racing between these two pair until now. How will Verstappen react if Alonso draws alongside him on the outside approaching Sainte Devote?

But Alonso says this race will not just come down to those five seconds between the lights going out and the pair hitting the brakes for the first time.

“The thing is that the distance to turn one I think is too short, for whatever start performance you have, and it’s too narrow, I think, to try,” he explained. “Let’s see tomorrow how it goes but it is maybe not in my head at the moment that it’s that opportunity or nothing. I think it’s a long race that we will focus on it.”

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Starting behind the front row pairing is Esteban Ocon, who equals his best ever starting position of third thanks to a blistering final lap, plus Charles Leclerc’s grid penalty for impeding Lando Norris. Cheekily, Ocon says he is rooting for the two ahead of him to get into mischief together so he can reap the benefits. But he is also likely to face a lot of pressure from the likes of Carlos Sainz Jnr behind him for 78 laps if he beats the Ferrari to Sainte Devote.

Lewis Hamilton overcame a late crash in final practice to secure sixth on the grid but will start fifth instead, with Mercedes team mate George Russell down in eighth. After Mercedes have been a major talking point this weekend due to their major upgrades package, trackside engineering director Andrew Shovlin admitted that the team’s starting positions were “not ideal”.

“It’s never easy to move forward in the grand prix here but we’ll be working through the scenarios tonight,” said Shovlin. “It’s often an unpredictable race and it looks like it might be tough on the tyres. We’ll make sure we do everything we can to be ready to capitalise on any opportunities that come our way tomorrow.”

Having fallen to sixth, Leclerc is not expecting to make his first appearance on the podium for his home grand prix unless something unexpected happens. “It’s not a track where you can overtake and even if we could overtake, I think that in terms of race pace, we are a little bit behind,” summarised the Ferrari driver.

But while sixth is not an ideal place to start the Monaco Grand Prix, it’s far better than last. Perez faces that as a result of crashing out of Q1. But while he managed to rise from the pit lane in Australia to finish in the top five, Perez expects a torturous race this time around.

“If it’s a normal race it will be hard to do anything tomorrow,” he admitted. “I have a fast car but it’s nearly impossible to pass here with these wide cars, it is going to be tricky to make progress, but we will try everything.”

With extremely low cornering speeds in Monaco, there are not many options for teams to invent brilliantly creative strategies to get their cars ahead of rivals when tyre wear is so low. As ever, Monaco is one-stop territory. However despite Monaco’s low grip levels Pirelli believe drivers should avoid starting on their softest tyre.

“We had some graining on the C4 [medium] and C5 [soft] especially,” chief engineer Simone Berra explained. “This is expected here because the grip level is quite low and you start to slide quite often on both front and rear axle.”

Teams invariably prefer to start the race on the softest tyre to avoid being beaten by a rival off the line. But Berra believes its performance over a stint is too poor to consider that, even at a track like Monaco where teams can tolerate a huge drop-off in performance because overtaking is so difficult.

“In terms of performance C4 and C5 are struggling the most on continuous running because of the overheating from the rear axle,” said Berra. “So I think especially the C5 is really difficult to manage on long run.

“My opinion is that all the teams for the first stint will go for the C4 and try to extend as much as possible the first stint trying to exploit Safety Car or whatever.”

Teams tend to be more aggressive with their strategies than Pirelli expect, so if many drivers at the front do indeed start the race on mediums, it will indicate deep concerns about their ability to keep that compound alive. But past Monaco Grands Prix in the Pirelli era have been won by drivers starting on the softest available rubber, driving at a very slow pace, and keeping the field in check behind. The key difference between this weekend’s event and previous races is teams are not locked into their tyre choices after qualifying (this was also true last year but pre-race rain rendered it moot).

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The decision of when to pit is dictated by track position as much as anything at Monaco. Avoiding traffic when you emerge from a stop is critical, while any attempts to undercut can be covered off usually without much hassle.

That would typically suggest that Verstappen can simply control the pace out front and tick off the laps to take another comfortable victory. However, there are some wildcards out of Red Bull’s control that could threaten to make life difficult on Sunday.

The first is the weather. Although the FIA’s official forecast for Sunday afternoon predicts only a 20% risk of rain at some point during the grand prix at maximum, there have been murmurs in the paddock that some teams believe chances are greater than that. But if the unexpected was to occur, Alonso does not believe that will improve his chances of victory.

“The rain? I think it will not help, to be honest,” he said. “I prefer a dry race.

“We have a better chance to secure big points from a dry race and on a chaotic, rainy day it will only help the people out of position and I think we are in position at the moment.”

Leclerc is one driver who seems to believe there is more probability of rain than most expect and sees it as a potential opportunity to reclaim some of his lost positions. However, his team mate Sainz admitting the forecast he’s seen “doesn’t look very wet.”

The other factor is the ever-present possibility of a sudden Safety Car or even a red flag striking at any point during the 78-lap race. With the field as close as ever, the high likelihood of DRS trains keeping them bunched up in packs and Perez having to fight his way up the order, there’s a real chance that just a single mistake or misjudgement could have major consequences and throw everything up in the air. But whatever does happen on Sunday, Verstappen is more than confident h and Red Bull can handle it.

“In Monaco a lot of things can happen, right? Safety Car, rain – you name it.

“There’s always a bit of chaos involved but I think race pace-wise here the car is quick, so that is not the problem. We just need to keep it clean and calm.”

Qualifying times in full

Position	Number	Driver	Team	Q1 time	Q2 time (vs Q1)	Q3 time (vs Q2)
1	1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull-Honda RBPT	1’12.386	1’11.908 (-0.478s)	1’11.365 (-0.543s)
2	14	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin-Mercedes	1’12.886	1’12.107 (-0.779s)	1’11.449 (-0.658s)
3	16	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	1’12.912	1’12.103 (-0.809s)	1’11.471 (-0.632s)
4	31	Esteban Ocon	Alpine-Renault	1’12.967	1’12.248 (-0.719s)	1’11.553 (-0.695s)
5	55	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Ferrari	1’12.717	1’12.210 (-0.507s)	1’11.630 (-0.580s)
6	44	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	1’12.872	1’12.156 (-0.716s)	1’11.725 (-0.431s)
7	10	Pierre Gasly	Alpine-Renault	1’13.033	1’12.169 (-0.864s)	1’11.933 (-0.236s)
8	63	George Russell	Mercedes	1’12.769	1’12.151 (-0.618s)	1’11.964 (-0.187s)
9	22	Yuki Tsunoda	AlphaTauri-Honda RBPT	1’12.642	1’12.249 (-0.393s)	1’12.082 (-0.167s)
10	4	Lando Norris	McLaren-Mercedes	1’12.877	1’12.377 (-0.500s)	1’12.254 (-0.123s)
11	81	Oscar Piastri	McLaren-Mercedes	1’13.006	1’12.395 (-0.611s)	Missed by 0.018s
12	21	Nyck de Vries	AlphaTauri-Honda RBPT	1’13.054	1’12.428 (-0.626s)	Missed by 0.051s
13	23	Alexander Albon	Williams-Mercedes	1’12.706	1’12.527 (-0.179s)	Missed by 0.150s
14	18	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin-Mercedes	1’12.722	1’12.623 (-0.099s)	Missed by 0.246s
15	77	Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo-Ferrari	1’13.038	1’12.625 (-0.413s)	Missed by 0.248s
16	2	Logan Sargeant	Williams-Mercedes	1’13.113	Missed by 0.059s
17	20	Kevin Magnussen	Haas-Ferrari	1’13.270	Missed by 0.216s
18	27	Nico Hulkenberg	Haas-Ferrari	1’13.279	Missed by 0.225s
19	24	Zhou Guanyu	Alfa Romeo-Ferrari	1’13.523	Missed by 0.469s
20	11	Sergio Perez	Red Bull-Honda RBPT	1’13.850	Missed by 0.796s

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Sector times

Position	Number	Driver	Sector one	Sector two	Sector three	Ultimate lap	Deficit to ultimate lap
1	1	Max Verstappen	18.642 (2)	33.902 (4)	18.821 (1)	1’11.365	–
2	14	Fernando Alonso	18.496 (1)	33.844 (1)	19.109 (10)	1’11.449	–
3	16	Charles Leclerc	18.651 (3)	33.87 (3)	18.95 (4)	1’11.471	–
4	31	Esteban Ocon	18.728 (5)	33.903 (5)	18.922 (2)	1’11.553	–
5	55	Carlos Sainz Jnr	18.774 (8)	33.856 (2)	18.935 (3)	1’11.565	0.065
6	44	Lewis Hamilton	18.757 (7)	33.929 (6)	19.039 (5)	1’11.725	–
7	63	George Russell	18.665 (4)	34.101 (8)	19.109 (10)	1’11.875	0.089
8	10	Pierre Gasly	18.841 (11)	34.003 (7)	19.089 (7)	1’11.933	–
9	22	Yuki Tsunoda	18.746 (6)	34.183 (10)	19.105 (9)	1’12.034	0.048
10	4	Lando Norris	18.807 (9)	34.258 (11)	19.071 (6)	1’12.136	0.118
11	81	Oscar Piastri	18.839 (10)	34.302 (12)	19.09 (8)	1’12.231	0.164
12	21	Nyck de Vries	18.9 (13)	34.307 (13)	19.221 (14)	1’12.428	–
13	18	Lance Stroll	18.853 (12)	34.172 (9)	19.469 (17)	1’12.494	0.129
14	23	Alexander Albon	18.989 (15)	34.347 (14)	19.161 (12)	1’12.497	0.030
15	77	Valtteri Bottas	18.914 (14)	34.446 (15)	19.178 (13)	1’12.538	0.087
16	2	Logan Sargeant	19.073 (17)	34.617 (17)	19.423 (15)	1’13.113	–
17	20	Kevin Magnussen	19.14 (19)	34.574 (16)	19.556 (19)	1’13.270	–
18	27	Nico Hulkenberg	19.108 (18)	34.707 (18)	19.464 (16)	1’13.279	–
19	24	Zhou Guanyu	19.07 (16)	34.772 (19)	19.497 (18)	1’13.339	0.184
20	11	Sergio Perez	19.475 (20)	34.813 (20)	19.562 (20)	1’13.850	–

Speed trap

Position	Number	Driver	Car	Engine	Model	Max kph (mph)
1	55	Carlos Sainz Jnr	Ferrari	Ferrari	SF-23	286.0 (177.7)
2	4	Lando Norris	McLaren	Mercedes	MCL60	285.1 (177.2)
3	10	Pierre Gasly	Alpine	Renault	A523	284.8 (177.0)
4	2	Logan Sargeant	Williams	Mercedes	FW45	284.5 (176.8)
5	81	Oscar Piastri	McLaren	Mercedes	MCL60	284.3 (176.7)
6	1	Max Verstappen	Red Bull	Honda RBPT	RB19	283.9 (176.4)
7	44	Lewis Hamilton	Mercedes	Mercedes	W14	283.9 (176.4)
8	27	Nico Hulkenberg	Haas	Ferrari	VF-23	283.9 (176.4)
9	23	Alexander Albon	Williams	Mercedes	FW45	283.2 (176.0)
10	31	Esteban Ocon	Alpine	Renault	A523	282.4 (175.5)
11	22	Yuki Tsunoda	AlphaTauri	Honda RBPT	AT04	282.4 (175.5)
12	16	Charles Leclerc	Ferrari	Ferrari	SF-23	282.2 (175.4)
13	24	Zhou Guanyu	Alfa Romeo	Ferrari	C43	281.9 (175.2)
14	20	Kevin Magnussen	Haas	Ferrari	VF-23	281.6 (175.0)
15	14	Fernando Alonso	Aston Martin	Mercedes	AMR23	281.6 (175.0)
16	11	Sergio Perez	Red Bull	Honda RBPT	RB19	281.3 (174.8)
17	21	Nyck de Vries	AlphaTauri	Honda RBPT	AT04	281.3 (174.8)
18	18	Lance Stroll	Aston Martin	Mercedes	AMR23	280.9 (174.5)
19	77	Valtteri Bottas	Alfa Romeo	Ferrari	C43	280.8 (174.5)
20	63	George Russell	Mercedes	Mercedes	W14	280.8 (174.5)

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Over to you

Will it be a straightforward 78 laps for Verstappen on Sunday? Or is Monaco going to serve up another of its surprises?

Share your views on the Monaco Grand Prix in the comments.

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