Which team will break Red Bull’s record win streak?

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No Formula 1 team in over seven decades of the sport’s history has enjoyed a start to a season like Red Bull has in 2023.

After winning the final race of last season in Abu Dhabi, the world champions have also taken the stop step of the podium in the first 12 rounds of this season.

Their perfect run of victories from the start of the championship until the summer break is not just incredibly impressive, it is also an all-time record win streak for Formula 1 having beaten McLaren’s previously unmatched win record of 11-straight victories from 1988.

Not only is Red Bull’s win streak unparalleled, it’s difficult to see it being broken any time soon. At the last round before the summer break begin at the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa, Max Verstappen’s winning margin over the closest non-Red Bull car, Charles Leclerc, was over half a minute – exactly two kilometres behind when Verstappen crossed the finish line.

However, as difficult as it is to envision anyone catching and beating Red Bull given their current crushing form, it remains inevitable that their stranglehold over first place will end eventually. Whether it will be because of mechanical misfortune, a collision that wipes out both Verstappen and team mate Sergio Perez from contention or because they are genuinely beaten for pace over the course of a race, one of the nine teams on the grid will be the one to break the streak.

But which team will have the honours?

Mercedes current sit a distant second in the constructors’ championship, ahead of Aston Martin. They were also the last team other than Red Bull to take a race victory, courtesy of George Russell claiming his maiden grand prix win in Brazil at the end of last season. However, they are one of four teams who have taken ‘best of the rest’ honours over the first 12 rounds.

F1 podium, Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, 2023
Six drivers have joined the Red Bulls on the podium this season
Aston Martin – exclusively through Fernando Alonso – have been the closest team to Red Bull on five occasions during the 2023 season so far. But while they were the nearest challengers at the start of the year, their form has faded into the mid-season.

There have been three rounds this season where Ferrari have been Red Bull’s closest opposition, with Charles Leclerc crossing the line behind both of them in Baku and Spa and taking second place behind Verstappen at the Austrian Grand Prix. Ferrari were also the last team to consistently match Red Bull’s pace in races, but that was now over a full year ago as Ferrari have not won a grand prix since the 2020 round at the Red Bull Ring.

Then there is McLaren. Despite another frustrating start to the year where they were well out of contention for points, let alone wins, McLaren have had the most stunning rate of progression of any team on the grid. After their major upgrades in Austria, Lando Norris took back-to-back second places in Silverstone and the Hungaroring to put themselves right in the thick of the action at the front of the field.

Naturally, it’s not impossible that one of the teams from the bottom five positions in the championship could find themselves finding more speed and overtaking those four teams to breakthrough and win or be in the right place at the right time during a particularly chaotic race. But in all likelihood, based on current performance levels, it is either Mercedes, Aston Martin, Ferrari or McLaren who have the best chance of winning next.

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I say

As brilliant as it would be to see the likes of Alpine, Alfa Romeo or Williams take a stunning surprise victory, it’ll almost certainly take a chaotic race the likes of Spa 1998 or Monaco 1996 for that kind of result to happen. Certainly this season at least. If anyone is going to break the streak this year, it will almost certainly be one of the top five teams.

George Russell, Mercedes, Hungaroring, 2023
Mercedes remain the best bet to beat Red Bull
Although Mike Krack saw Aston Martin’s performance in Spa as a step forward for his team – and was probably accurate in that assessment – Aston Martin feel like a team who have already peaked for this season at least. As great a leap as they’ve made, their trajectory suggests their race winning days will lie in the years to come. Similarly with Ferrari, despite being the closest to Red Bull in Spa, the Scuderia clearly have work to do to finally fire on all cylinders and be a legitimate championship contending force once more.

McLaren have also been incredibly impressive in their ability to recover from a poor start to the year and throw themselves right up into the battle at the front. However, neither of their talented young drivers have ever stepped on the top step of the podium and it will be very difficult for McLaren to push past Red Bull this year with the resources available to them.

That leaves the most likely candidates: Mercedes. Not just with two race winning drivers and a multiple championship winning pedigree, but with the technical prowess and resources on a level with the world champions. All they need is the car to do it. Whether that comes this season or next, they remain the best bet to beat Red Bull.



You say

Which team do you think has the best chance of beating Red Bull first?

Which team will be the one to break Red Bull's record win streak?

  • Williams (1%)
  • Mercedes (48%)
  • McLaren (31%)
  • Haas (1%)
  • Ferrari (15%)
  • Aston Martin (1%)
  • Alpine (0%)
  • AlphaTauri (1%)
  • Alfa Romeo (1%)

Total Voters: 137

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Will Wood
Will has been a RaceFans contributor since 2012 during which time he has covered F1 test sessions, launch events and interviewed drivers. He mainly...

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65 comments on “Which team will break Red Bull’s record win streak?”

  1. The poll should include an “Other team” option. Maybe a new team will. I’d have voted Audi if there was such option. But voting Alfa Romeo instead would’ve felt strange.

    1. Jonathan Parkin
      6th August 2023, 13:00

      That would be a very long streak if Audi is the first to beat Red Bull

      1. Oh, I only read the title and completely misunderstood it. For some reason I thought the question is who will break Red Bull’s winning streak record.

        1. The grammar on this site is terrible. Especially the titles. I think they’d be better off using ChatGPT to come up with titles that make more sense.

        2. Ohh, wow, if I look at the title now I get how you understood that, but it’s an interesting question as well, and judging by how long the mclaren record lasted, I wouldn’t be surprised if the red bull record made it to 2050.

        3. I agree that the title is pretty bad. It is very easy to misinterpret, as “breaking a record” has a very definite meaning. “Which team will stop Red Bull’s record win streak?”, or similar, would have been much clearer.

          That said, there is a significant problem with people only reading the headline and then commenting. Mostly, the article will make things clear. This is very prominent on social media when a site posts a link to their article: People read only the headline and then comment, but their comments are completely unjustified if you actually read the article. Surely, if you are going to go to the trouble of commenting on an article, or voting in a poll, you should at least read the actual article first?

          1. I don’t know what the title was before, but congratulations on your winning title change suggestion =)

          2. All I did was replace “break” with “stop”, because “break” makes it easy to misinterpret as “breaking their record”, rather than ending their streak.

  2. Red Bull will probably be beaten first by themselves = a combination of mechanical failure or driver error taking Verstappen out of the race (or sending him way down the order mid-race) and Pérez having one of his fairly usual mediocre race weekends. If Verstappen is out, as Wolff said (I think it was him anyhow), then the other teams are competing against Pérez, who should still win, but is ‘within range.’ That means the most likely teams are Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren. That depends on the circuit. So which is the most likely circuit for a Verstappen mishap and where Pérez is weaker? Japan, Italy and Brazil could both promise rain, mixing things up, while Singapore has some risk of collision damage for either or both Red Bull drivers. I’ll go for Brazil, making a Mercedes win more likely I think.
    But really? There’s a chance Red Bull will win every race until next year.

    1. Agreed, it will most likely be whoever is in the lucky position to be in second place when RBR has a significant problem. To have the best chance, they need to put themselves in 2nd as often as possible, but it will almost certainly be down to RBR having some bad luck rather than anything else.

  3. Who voted for Haas?!
    I went for McLaren – they’re about where they should have been from the start of the season, with two drivers who look comfortable racing near the front, one of them still learning lots about racecraft.
    It’ll still take a direct hit on Max, or him breaking the suspension or something on a street circuit. Even if Red Bull mangle their setup on a sprint/wacky qualifying weekend, he’s got the car and the patience to make his way to the front.

    1. @bullfrog

      Who voted for Haas?!

      Although not myself, I suppose the question could be approached either from a genuine ‘likelihood’ perspective, or a more speculative predictive angle. After all, any team could!!! break the streak.

      I guess that voter likes to take a punt???

      1. @bullfrog if the Haas driver crash into Verstappen preventing him to win, they should probably get the credit.

        Not the one voting Haas, but trying to find an plausible explanation except for the most likely troll vote.

      2. I’m not the one who voted Haas, but…

        As it’s most likely going to be down to RBR having some serious bad luck, the answer is “whoever is in second when that bad luck happens”. Given that’s more likely to happen in a topsy-turvy race, e.g. one dominated by a large crash or changeable weather, and that’s where you’re most likely to find a team like Haas near the top, I wouldn’t say it’s a completely ridiculous call.

  4. McLaren !!!

  5. Same as in Mercedes even more extreme dominant period, errors will be made and misfortune will happen.

    Mercedes would have won all races in 2016 if not for their own failure (drivers colliding with each other on lap 1) in Spain and misfortune (Rosberg hit by Vettel on lap 1 and Lewis engine failure) in Malaysia.

    So far Red Bull and specifically Max is operating at an extremely high level and very consistent to such extend that even minor misfortune/errors aren’t enough.

    Mclaren or Mercedes are most likely to get the first none Red Bull win this year. Aston Martin relies on single driver and relatively lost performance, Ferrari are too likely to screw up when leading.

    Zandvoort, Singapore together with the 3 sprint race weekends are most likely races for another team to win.

  6. Tim (@tsgoodchild)
    6th August 2023, 13:54

    If the rumours are true and RedBull intend of giving the current RedBull car, RB19, to Alpha Tauri next season, I fully expect them to utilise all the extra development perks you get for being a bottom of the grid team to develop the RB19 into a monster of a car – more so than it is today. With RedBull claiming to be penalised due to their overspend last year limiting their development of the RB19, just give it to the worst team to do it. So, RedBull win the rest of this years races, probably the first half of next year, until the Alpha Tauri (or whatever it will be called next year) beats them hands down. Only for the 2025 season to be back to RedBull taking all the things Alpha Tauri learned. Easy.

    1. If the rumours are true and RedBull intend of giving the current RedBull car, RB19, to Alpha Tauri next season,

      That is absolutely NOT possible.
      To avoid copycats ( and this would be a extreme example!) Fia has rules and lists of part that are allowed to buy.
      A complete car is impossibel.
      For more detailed info look at:https://the-race.com/formula-1/f1-2022s-new-parts-categories-explained/

      1. Tim (@tsgoodchild)
        6th August 2023, 17:12

        Yeh, That is what I thought. But RedBull like cheating.

        1. Every team cheats, as in looking for the sharp end of the rules. Welcome in F1👍
          No team really cheats and get away with it unharmed.
          Ferraris engine come to mind
          Redbulls 400k overspending
          Mercedes tricky rear wing/ illegal tiretest
          Etc etc.

  7. I voted for mclaren based on current form, but realistically, mercedes seem to be the best bet: aston martin lost too much performance, I think it’d take a miracle for them to win a race this year, ferrari are less unrealistic, I can see leclerc winning a race where perez is a bit meh and verstappen is out for some reason or loses a significant amount of time (puncture on lap 1, stuff that puts him a lap back, not just starting from the back), but like others said, the strategy also has to be spot on, hence don’t trust them very much, mercedes so far have been the most consistent, so if mclaren continue on this current form, they’re the most likely, but not sure they will and usually mercedes are more stable, and last year in brazil red bull had tyre problems and mercedes simply won on merit, both the sprint and the race.

    1. I voted for Merc purely due to the odds. They’ve been more consistently up there than any other team this year. I’d say Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren each currently have a car capable of winning if Max has a serious problem. Ferrari drop the ball too often, though, and we’ve only seen the McLaren resurgence for a couple of races so far. AM seem to have dropped out of the running for “best of the rest”.

      I wouldn’t put any money on any of them, though:
      1) They are all so close, when everything is taken into account, that any of the three could take it
      2) It would take both a massive problem for Max and Perez being off-form at the same time
      3) The field is so close (excluding RBR) that, by the time it happens, there’s every chance another team will have come into contention

  8. McLaren most likely. In a normal race, both Lando and Oscar can be ahead of Checo. And in a 1 vs 2 scenario, Red Bull may lose out.

    Ferrari with Leclerc is next most likely mainly due to Leclerc’s qualifying ability. On a track like Singapore, he may just be able to win. Leclerc is the only driver to beat Red Bulls in qualifying this year after all.

    1. Yes, singapore and leclerc’s quali speed is a good point, however singapore is still not like monaco, and I’m afraid red bull’s drs would be too powerful to keep them behind, or well, verstappen at least.

    2. I would kind of agree. I see it as either Leclerc or Hamilton breaking the streak. I still think that Max will have to encounter some bad luck to lose, but the only drivers that will be close enough to capitalise will be Lewis in Brazil or Charles at Singapore.

      It’s a shame that Aston has disappeared, or else Alonso looks entirely capable of pulling it off as well.

  9. Someone (most likely Hamilton, Norris or Leclerc) might ‘inherit’ a win if Verstappen hits trouble. That doesn’t seem particularly likely, though. Especially since nobody seems interested in actually racing Verstappen whenever he does start further back. The way he can drive around cars is just disheartening to watch; even ignoring the DRS they all just jump out of his way to get back to their squabble for the leftovers.

    But that this question has to be asked is a testament to how utterly embarrassing the other teams have been this season. No wonder views on YouTube for the race highlights have been almost halved since the race in Bahrain.

    1. Fighting verstappen would seriously compromise your own race.
      So most racers do not make it to easy but not to difficult . Defending costs a lot of laptime and you will ruin your race.
      If it was a realistic option to fight there would be more enthousiasm..

    2. Coventry Climax
      6th August 2023, 15:45

      Disheartening to some is aweinspiring to others.
      Fact of the matter is, Max generally manages to get by, not just on car power, but by means of inventiveness too.
      Compare that to Perez who tries the exact same trick lap after lap, generally still doesn’t succeed and then goes for the do or die option.

      1. Verstappen should race without drs, I wouldn’t be surprised if he still won a race like spa starting further away than 10th place without drs.

        1. Coventry Climax
          6th August 2023, 22:42

          Being in front most of the time, he already is racing without DRS.

          This you’re suggestion for BoP? Not your best idea, frankly. But that’s OK, I say stupid things too sometimes. ;-)

  10. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
    6th August 2023, 14:40

    All I know is it’s going to take a long time before Red Bull is dethroned. As we witnessed, the Red Bulls are capable of outrunning their own rocket by 22 seconds over 27 laps in almost total full throttle conditions and Max quipped that he can actually get another 20 seconds over the 2nd Red Bull over a few laps.

    They are effectively crawling during the races while accomplishing these results. As for matching them, they probably cannot be matched because of the difference in performance between car #1 and car #2 that Red Bull has been known for.

    1. that Red Bull has been known for.

      a bit trumpish.. repeat the fiction often enough and you will start some believe in it..
      ;)

      1. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
        6th August 2023, 17:31

        @seth-space

        Well, fiction is usually imaginary. A little fact checking will show that Verstappen was 22 seconds up in 27 laps over Perez, that Spa is 82% full throttle (that number might be higher for Red Bull given its superior cornering ability), and Verstappen did ask Red Bull whether he was allowed to build a gap large enough to get a free pit stop over Perez. I omitted Red Bull’s reply which was a simple NO.

        So based on facts, I guess I should be asking you whether your skin looks orange in photos and also wishing you good luck on your legal endeavours ;-)

        1. Spa is only 67% (2\3) full throttle from what the race coverage showed, it’s still a lot, and more than I expected, but nowhere near the basically 5\6 you stated.

          But I get the point that such a gap is a bit suspicious on such a track where throttle is so important, however if red bull is giving perez a meh car, then they were already doing it midway into 2022, which is strange, cause the title wasn’t certain yet at spa, and perez was still nowhere compared to verstappen back then.

          1. Michael (@freelittlebirds)
            7th August 2023, 6:28

            @esploratore1 where do you see the full throttle stats? I found 2 spots that list Spa at 80-82% but I’d like to be more accurate.

            2/3= 4/6 which is not the same as 5/6 but I wouldn’t say nowhere near.

        2. If your factcheck means you looked to the outcome of the race and thought that was a argument for your narrative..I will be orange also
          ;)

  11. I Say [hold upside down to reveal]

    ˙dn llɐ ʇᴉ ʍǝɹɔs oʇ sǝᴉʇᴉlᴉqɐdɐɔ ɟo ʇno unɹ llᴉʍ ʎǝɥʇ ɥƃnoɥʇ ʎɐp ǝuO ˙ʞɔɐq ɯǝɥʇ plǝɥ ǝʌɐɥ ‘sɹǝʌᴉɹp ǝɥʇ ɟo ɯɹoɟ puɐ sǝʞɐʇsᴉɯ ǝɥʇ oslɐ ʇnq ʇɹɐd ʎƃǝʇɐɹʇs ǝɥʇ ʎlᴉɹɐɯᴉɹd ‘ɯɐǝʇ ǝɥʇ ʇnq ‘ɯɐǝʇ ʇsǝsolɔ ǝɥʇ ɯǝǝs ʎǝɥʇ ǝsᴉʍ ɹɐɔ – ᴉɹɐɹɹǝℲ

    1. Lewisham Milton
      6th August 2023, 17:08

      Good luck with that.

    2. This is way too hard to read!

    3. Having to use a website to turn text back the normal way, pff!

  12. Stephen Taylor
    6th August 2023, 14:45

    I’m going for Piastri and McLaren.

  13. Probably Manor…..

  14. Coventry Climax
    6th August 2023, 15:50

    Do you guys hand out prize money for the winner of this lottery?

    Funny this quizz is held just after the article where Mercedes says their focus is on next year’s car from now on. Not that that can ever be fully trusted.

    1. Indeed, knowing them I’d expect a massive improvement soon!

  15. For some reason I went for Ferrari. Their car is definitely capable of getting a pole position or two. Certainly in Leclerc’s hands. Surely he will convert one of them, one day.

    Sooner or later Max will probably have a bump or a car failure. Then with Checo there is always the possibility of him messing up qualifying and being too far down the field.

    1. Yes, just something happening to verstappen is required, for example in austria, which was a good performance by ferrari, sainz had some great battling keeping perez behind for a few laps, one can expect leclerc would’ve been even harder to overtake, though perez didn’t even get to him.

      1. But, when Verstappen finally has a big enough issue, I’d put money on Ferrari mishandling the situation and dropping their drivers back down the field.

        1. Rbr has Verstappen and a fast car
          Ferrari has strategy
          Mercedes has toto

          All points in favour of rbr I guess.
          So MCL it is .

  16. Whichever team is the number two teams at the race where Red Bull have an issue. Could be any one of them at the top as we’ve seen over the season. Just a matter of luck for whichever team it is that weekend.

    1. At this point in the season I’d rule out aston martin, they don’t seem 2nd best any more at any kind of track.

      Yes, there’s singapore, but they weren’t that strong in hungary either.

  17. Mercedes will order George to go bowling, lije they did w Bottas, allowing Sir Lewis to inherit a win. It’s in his contract.

    1. Ahaha, that’s a fun one and would make more sense than the 2021 bowling: back then it was an unfair tactic to try and win driver and constructor’s title, now it would bring a surprise winner, the % of complaints would be much lower.

  18. AlphaTauri with Daniel Ricciardo I hope in 2024.

  19. Mercedes/HAM

  20. At this rate, I’d go with Andretti…

  21. Wow, very interesting result: the poll is basically done and 48% voted mercedes, 32% mclaren, 16% ferrari, so merc has 3x ferrari voters and mclaren 2x, you wouldn’t manage this result if you were trying for it.

  22. It felt a bit said that nobody picked alpha romeo.

    1. Coventry Climax
      6th August 2023, 22:50

      Probably because sadness and likeliness are related in a funny way.
      Your Alfa (with an ‘f’, not ‘ph’) Romeo dream, for example, is not as sad as the likeliness of Putin stepping down and Navalny elected russia’s president, within the next two months.

      1. Can’t FIA and FOM add a few more years to Alfa’s tenure(like Judge Suvorov did for Navalny)?

  23. Ferrari, within the next 5 races

  24. I think Mercedes at Zandvoort or Brasil those are the tracks where Red Bull have problems with their setup.

    Monza – They put the highspeed up i think that will be a easy win for RB

    Zanvoort – first chance
    Singapore – Red Bull
    Japan – Red Bull
    Quatar – Red Bull
    CotA – Red Bull
    Mexico – Red Bull
    Brasil – second chance
    Las Vegas – Red Bull high speed stuff
    Abu – Red Bull

    So we see the first chance Zandvoort (but Max is really good at this circuit)

  25. McLaren – Monza – Lando

  26. McLaren at Suzuka.

  27. They already gave up. Picking the leftovers. As long as RB’s doesn’t get rammed or technical problems occur second or third is possible. About everybody can see that. However if it happens McLaren will take the win.

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