Suzuka showed Mercedes can no longer expect tyre degradation advantage

Formula 1

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The once-dominant Mercedes team have been a shadow of their former selves since the current technical regulations were introduced at the beginning of last year. Out of the 38 grands prix since then, they’ve won just one.

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But though their current car and its predecessor have tended to lag off the pace in qualifying they have often been more competitive in race trim. Their drivers have regularly enjoyed better tyre degradation than their rivals – Red Bull obviously notwithstanding – which has afforded them useful strategic options during races.

At a hot and unexpectedly abrasive Suzuka, that could have played to their advantage. But George Russell’s attempt to make a single pit stop, on a day when most preferred two, demonstrated that Mercedes’ strategic edge isn’t what it once was.

On paper, Mercedes appear to have made progress with both cars. Lewis Hamilton and Russell started seventh and eighth respectively, and came home fifth and seventh.

But factor in the retirement of Sergio Perez, who started ahead of them, and the true picture is less flattering. Hamilton gained just one place for the team, from Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz Jnr.

Suzuka, 2023
Poll: Vote for your 2023 Japanese Grand Prix Driver of the Weekend
Trackside engineering director Andrew Shovlin admitted that, at a circuit which suited their rivals’ cars more than the W14, Mercedes hadn’t been able to bank on getting better tyre life than the opposition.

“Part of it is linked to the temperature,” Shovlin explained. “So some of that deg you get is just as the tyres get hotter and hotter over the first eight laps or so. I think the performance deficit that was there in qualifying, where we have a bit less performance through the fast corners, is the same thing that’s costing us in the race.

“Really, at this track, it’s just about how much grip have you got in the fast corners? A lot of that will be downforce and we look like we’re a little bit behind in that regard. [Ferrari] did bring an updated floor, so maybe they moved forward.

“I think if you look at some of our recent tracks that advantage we had on degradation, it’s not as evident now in the season as it was in the earlier races.”

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Nonetheless, Mercedes took a punt on a one-stop strategy. Russell was the only driver to do this. True, Esteban Ocon came close, pitting only once after a puncture forced him into the pits at the end of the first lap. But he completed the race from there on two sets of hards tyres while Russell, in order to comply with the rules, had change compounds at his sole stop.

Russell came in on lap 24 – one lap before Fernando Alonso, who followed him home, made his second and final visit. As the Aston Martin driver was clearly no threat from behind, Mercedes gambled on a one-stop with his car in the hope the degradation would not be too severe, which might allow them to beat Sainz.

“When we were looking at it earlier in the race, you were sort of projecting some better upsides that you could maybe do quite well if the others weren’t able to overtake you later on.

“At the point we were deciding to do it, it was actually looking like do we try and get to the end where we have a chance of being ahead of Sainz or do we stop, we drop behind Alonso, we’d have got through with new tyres and you’re behind Sainz anyway.

Charles Leclerc, Ferrari, Suzuka, 2023
Ferrari’s floor upgrade gave the SF-23 a lift
“So whilst the odds of holding back Sainz on the one-stop were relatively low, the reason that we committed to it was by virtue of the fact that there was nothing to lose. And there was no risk to George on a one-stop from Alonso behind. So we stayed with it. It was a difficult strategy to pull off and he did well to manage it, but the deg was just a bit too high to make it competitive.”

There was another upside to one-stopping Russell: It put him on a different strategy to his team mate, and the pair had already crossed swords twice by the time Hamilton headed for the pits on lap 16. Shovlin indicated this was a secondary consideration, however.

“In terms of what the team’s doing, we’re trying to score points against Ferrari, certainly in a race like today,” he said. “Once we realised that we were not challenging McLaren for a podium, we’re looking at what’s going on with Ferrari, we’re trying to use the two cars effectively to give us those opportunities and being able to get one of them was useful damage limitation given that they both started ahead of us in the race.”

However Mercedes may have to do more than damage limitation over the coming races. That was the fourth consecutive race in which Ferrari out-scored them, and Mercedes’ lead over their rivals in the hunt for second place in the world championship is down to just 20 points.

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2023 Japanese Grand Prix lap chart

The positions of each driver on every lap. Click name to highlight, right-click to reset. Toggle drivers using controls below:

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2023 Japanese Grand Prix race chart

The gaps between each driver on every lap compared to the leader’s average lap time. Very large gaps omitted. Scroll to zoom, drag to pan and right-click to reset. Toggle drivers using controls below:

2023 Japanese Grand Prix lap times

All the lap times by the drivers (in seconds, very slow laps excluded). Scroll to zoom, drag to pan and toggle drivers using the control below:

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2023 Japanese Grand Prix fastest laps

Each driver’s fastest lap:

Rank # Driver Car Lap time Gap Avg. speed (kph) Lap no.
1 1 Max Verstappen Red Bull-Honda RBPT 1’34.183 221.96 39
2 4 Lando Norris McLaren-Mercedes 1’35.247 1.064 219.48 40
3 44 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 1’35.611 1.428 218.65 36
4 55 Carlos Sainz Jnr Ferrari 1’36.187 2.004 217.34 40
5 81 Oscar Piastri McLaren-Mercedes 1’36.328 2.145 217.02 38
6 16 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 1’36.362 2.179 216.94 40
7 10 Pierre Gasly Alpine-Renault 1’36.371 2.188 216.92 36
8 14 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin-Mercedes 1’37.203 3.020 215.07 28
9 27 Nico Hulkenberg Haas-Ferrari 1’37.250 3.067 214.96 44
10 31 Esteban Ocon Alpine-Renault 1’37.398 3.215 214.64 34
11 63 George Russell Mercedes 1’37.653 3.470 214.08 27
12 22 Yuki Tsunoda AlphaTauri-Honda RBPT 1’37.768 3.585 213.82 36
13 24 Zhou Guanyu Alfa Romeo-Ferrari 1’37.791 3.608 213.77 45
14 20 Kevin Magnussen Haas-Ferrari 1’37.842 3.659 213.66 41
15 40 Liam Lawson AlphaTauri-Honda RBPT 1’38.267 4.084 212.74 50
16 2 Logan Sargeant Williams-Mercedes 1’38.848 4.665 211.49 7
17 18 Lance Stroll Aston Martin-Mercedes 1’39.050 4.867 211.06 16
18 23 Alexander Albon Williams-Mercedes 1’39.185 5.002 210.77 15
19 11 Sergio Perez Red Bull-Honda RBPT 1’39.704 5.521 209.67 8
20 77 Valtteri Bottas Alfa Romeo-Ferrari 1’46.852 12.669 195.65 6

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2023 Japanese Grand Prix tyre strategies

The tyre strategies for each driver:

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2023 Japanese Grand Prix pit stop times

How long each driver’s pit stops took:

Rank # Driver Team Complete stop time (s) Gap to best (s) Stop no. Lap no.
1 16 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 22.926 2 34
2 22 Yuki Tsunoda AlphaTauri 22.944 0.018 1 9
3 55 Carlos Sainz Jnr Ferrari 23.075 0.149 1 18
4 40 Liam Lawson AlphaTauri 23.136 0.21 1 10
5 4 Lando Norris McLaren 23.182 0.256 2 36
6 16 Charles Leclerc Ferrari 23.197 0.271 1 17
7 81 Oscar Piastri McLaren 23.198 0.272 2 35
8 22 Yuki Tsunoda AlphaTauri 23.327 0.401 2 30
9 27 Nico Hulkenberg Haas 23.338 0.412 3 37
10 55 Carlos Sainz Jnr Ferrari 23.374 0.448 2 38
11 18 Lance Stroll Aston Martin 23.441 0.515 1 14
12 27 Nico Hulkenberg Haas 23.52 0.594 1 8
13 4 Lando Norris McLaren 23.523 0.597 1 17
14 44 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 23.631 0.705 2 34
15 27 Nico Hulkenberg Haas 23.66 0.734 2 21
16 40 Liam Lawson AlphaTauri 23.671 0.745 2 25
17 1 Max Verstappen Red Bull 23.696 0.77 2 37
18 31 Esteban Ocon Alpine 23.789 0.863 2 28
19 20 Kevin Magnussen Haas 23.816 0.89 1 12
20 20 Kevin Magnussen Haas 23.858 0.932 2 31
21 63 George Russell Mercedes 24.034 1.108 1 24
22 14 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin 24.086 1.16 1 11
23 24 Zhou Guanyu Alfa Romeo 24.091 1.165 2 10
24 24 Zhou Guanyu Alfa Romeo 24.116 1.19 3 29
25 14 Fernando Alonso Aston Martin 24.294 1.368 2 25
26 1 Max Verstappen Red Bull 24.382 1.456 1 16
27 81 Oscar Piastri McLaren 24.455 1.529 1 13
28 10 Pierre Gasly Alpine 24.488 1.562 1 18
29 10 Pierre Gasly Alpine 24.651 1.725 2 34
30 44 Lewis Hamilton Mercedes 24.841 1.915 1 16
31 31 Esteban Ocon Alpine 27.056 4.13 1 1
32 11 Sergio Perez Red Bull 30.651 7.725 4 14
33 11 Sergio Perez Red Bull 32.45 9.524 1 2
34 2 Logan Sargeant Williams 32.715 9.789 1 2
35 2 Logan Sargeant Williams 35.182 12.256 3 21
36 24 Zhou Guanyu Alfa Romeo 41.041 18.115 1 1
37 11 Sergio Perez Red Bull 41.499 18.573 2 12
38 2 Logan Sargeant Williams 43.868 20.942 2 5
39 23 Alexander Albon Williams 50.143 27.217 1 1
40 23 Alexander Albon Williams 52.165 29.239 2 13
41 77 Valtteri Bottas Alfa Romeo 53.512 30.586 2 6
42 77 Valtteri Bottas Alfa Romeo 55.802 32.876 1 1
43 11 Sergio Perez Red Bull 2,486.290 2,463.364 3 13

2023 Japanese Grand Prix

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Author information

Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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13 comments on “Suzuka showed Mercedes can no longer expect tyre degradation advantage”

  1. Ajaxn
    25th September 2023, 0:10

    So this tire deg has nothing to do with their drivers senselessly battling each other on track then.

    1. melanos
      25th September 2023, 0:48

      Instead of wrecking their cars and making a mess they should duel with sabres, it is a lot classier

      1. Profile Photo

        MadMax (@madmax)
        25th September 2023, 1:25

        seems you watched some wrong race. there was no contact.

        1. melanos
          25th September 2023, 11:08

          Looks like there soon will be and it won’t look pretty.

          1. Profile Photo

            MadMax (@madmax)
            25th September 2023, 12:05

            Perez is the much bigger threat to anybody currently. Merc drivers are smart and skilled enough to avoid contact til now.

          2. Doggy
            27th September 2023, 10:59

            @madmax do you realize that out of all top 7 drivers (max, check, leclerc, Sainz, Russell, Hamilton, and Alonso) Hamilton is the driver who have made more contact with other drivers this season.

            @melanos, I completely agree with you. The question is not if, is when. That when is in the really near future. It’s going to get ugly for the two of them.

  2. Edvaldo
    25th September 2023, 0:25

    A full second faster than everybody else without even pushing. And naive people still think there’s a fight to be had in ’24 and ’25.

    1. Profile Photo

      DaveW (@dmw)
      25th September 2023, 2:35

      If Mercedes want to contend during this rules era they kind of have to try to double-step development and mint a new concept the leapfrogs RBR. Copying the RBR side pod and diffuser concept won’t do anymore. It’s too late to climb that development ladder and catch RBR.

      I can see why they got high on their own supply after years of being the only low rake car and reeling in titles until the FIA started sawing off parts of their floor and messing with the brake ducts. They thought being different meant they were right.

  3. Profile Photo

    Nitzo (@webtel)
    25th September 2023, 6:24

    It’s amazing and even alarming how slow Oscar was in this race compared to Lando. Almost by half a second each lap. I wonder if he really had any damage on his car. Or maybe its just my estimation/hope that Piastri is way closer to Norris in terms of race pace that what we saw yesterday. This is his rookie season so perhaps we’ll see better.

  4. The Dolphins
    25th September 2023, 18:48

    Sergio’s 2,486.290s pit stop, haha, I’m not sure that counts does it?

    1. Jimmy Cliff
      26th September 2023, 10:35

      Still beats Bottas 2021 Monaco pit stop :-)

  5. Jimmy Cliff
    26th September 2023, 10:34

    Mercedes is losing more than just tire life advantage – they are losing their competitive edge against Ferrari and McLaren.
    Despite Aston Martin imploding and Perez scoring less – Mercedes is doing worse over races 9-16 than they did the first 8 races.

    Mercedes:
    Race 1-8 167 points (4 podiums – 14x points)
    Race 9-16 138 points (2 podiums – 14x points)

    Ferrari:
    Race 1-8 122 points (1 podiums – 12x points)
    Race 9-16 163 points (4 podiums – 14x points)

    McLaren:
    Race 1-8 17 points (0 podiums – 5x points)
    Race 9-16 155 points (5 podiums – 13x points)

    Aston Martin:
    Race 1-8 154 points (6 podiums – 13x points)
    Race 9-16 67 points (1 podiums – 10x points)

  6. Andrea Rancan
    28th September 2023, 19:18

    I don’t know why an engineer like Showlin fakely tells us Suzuka is only about fast speed corners.

    Suzuka is about 1.29 s lap, fast speed corners are like 30s of it.

    If you are weaker in fast corners but stronger in the other minute of the lap you are competitive.

    Every corner and straight is important in every track to determine which car is stronger.

Comments are closed.