The opening races of 2024 have shown the Formula 1 field is roughly split in to two halves.
While Red Bull are unquestionably leading the top half on raw performance, their former championship rivals Mercedes increasingly appear to be at the bottom, with Ferrari, McLaren and Aston Martin separating them.For the second race weekend in a row, Mercedes produced the fifth-fastest single lap ahead of the grand prix. With that kind of pace, the team’s risk of one of their drivers falling victim in Q2 to a strong lap by a midfield rival is high, and sure enough Lewis Hamilton failed to reach the final 10 after being eliminated by RB’s Yuki Tsunoda.
Mercedes looked stronger at the first round of the season in Bahrain. However on that occasion a particularly strong lap by George Russell on a day when others faltered lifted them to third overall.
Russell was in great form again today, capitalising on a poor Q3 for the Aston Martin drivers to claim seventh on the grid. Both Aston Martin drivers failed to improve their times between Q2 and Q3. They weren’t the only drivers to find the conditions less favourable at the end of the session: Charles Leclerc went slower as well, while the likes of his team mate and Tsunoda found only a few thousandths.
The margins remain incredibly tight, however, especially around Mercedes: Seven hundredths of a second covered them, Aston Martin and RB.
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The signs are good for Ferrari too, as for the first time this year they are over a second quicker than they were at this track 12 months ago. It looked like there was more in hand, too: Carlos Sainz Jnr lost a significant amount of time through turns nine and 10 on their quickest lap, while Charles Leclerc hit trouble in qualifying. Ferrari appear to be stronger on the harder compounds as well, which bodes well for their prospects in the race.
Red Bull are faster than last year by eight tenths of a second, which is roughly the same amount they were in Jeddah. Half of the teams, including rivals Mercedes, couldn’t manage that much. Two of them were slower on a single lap: Alpine (for the second time this year) and Haas:
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Max Verstappen’s pole-winning lap was the quickest ever seen at this circuit. However the easing of several corners ahead of the 2022 race has contributed significantly to the gains seen:
NB. track layout extensively changed in 2022
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2024 Australian Grand Prix
- Alonso calls Australian GP penalty a ‘one-off I’ve had too many of’
- Red Bull saw warning sign of Australian GP brake problem on Saturday – Verstappen
- Failing to punish Alonso would have “opened a can of worms” – Russell
- Leclerc sure “many team principals” are pursuing Sainz for 2025 seat
- “Don’t put me under pressure” – The best unheard team radio from Melbourne
Sonny Crockett (@sonnycrockett)
23rd March 2024, 18:25
As a McLaren fan:
Boom!
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
23rd March 2024, 22:37
I suppose they’re improving these years in relation to merc, ferrari and aston and potentially might end up as the 2nd fastest team, but the jump to catch red bull is the largest, it’s hard to be satisfied when you can’t really fight with the best, like they used to when they had hakkinen, raikkonen or hamilton.
Jim from US (@jimfromus)
23rd March 2024, 19:09
Mercedes engineering still believe in their simulations and designs. Just ignore the real-world results from the past 3 years. Admitting you have a problem is the first step.
Ben
23rd March 2024, 22:23
I don’t think they’ll ever get back to being a top team. They weren’t good before 2014 and the only reason they had an advantage from 2014-2020 was the engine. With that gone they’re back to a midfield team.
Mercedes still seem to be acting like they have a fast car too. Poor strategy and unwilling to take risks. Slow 4 second pit stops.
RedBull and Ferrari are now way out of reach. I expect Mercedes to develop and be able to fight McLaren towards the end of the year, but fighting for the 3rd/4th fastest team isn’t going to get them any wins.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
23rd March 2024, 22:42
Yes, their strategies were never really top notch, they were just hidden by the fact they consistently had the best car between 2014 and 2021, but sooner or later someone SHOULD be able to beat red bull to a championship again and realistically, no team that isn’t among the top 5 now will have a chance.
Aston martin made big improvements last year but they don’t seem to be able to make any further step, money is not everything, mclaren also improved a lot during last year but the last step is the hardest and they haven’t been a top team in 12 years now, ferrari don’t have the in-season development and pit wall ability (until they prove the opposite) to compete with red bull, so I don’t see who else but mercedes should end red bull’s championships streak.