It’s no longer “business as usual” at Red Bull.
Ever since it emerged in February that team principal Christian Horner was the subject of an investigation into allegations over his behaviour towards another member of staff, the team has insisted it is going about its work as it always does.As far as their results go, that has unquestionably been the case: The team has won four out of five grands prix this year. But though Horner was cleared by an internal investigation, the allegations haven’t gone away, and nor have claims that all is not well within the team’s management.
Now the team has announced its star designer Adrian Newey is leaving. Of course the two stories haven’t been connected in the team’s official announcement. But the timing of Newey’s decision raises an obvious question: Why leave a team which is currently dominating the sport thanks to the cars you’ve designed?
“I really didn’t want to leave, but we were in this position where Renault hadn’t produced a competitive engine in the turbo hybrid engine,” he told the official F1 channel last year. After speaking to Renault CEO Carlos Ghosn, Newey realised he was not prepared to spend enough to make their engines competitive.
“That was such a depressing place to be that we now had this yawn into the future. We knew Mercedes wouldn’t give us an engine. Ferrari had a great engine but we’d used Ferraris initially and I’d taken away us away from Ferrari in the first year to Renault because I believed, rightly or wrongly, that if you’re in a championship battle, Ferrari would never give us equal equipment.
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“So we were stuck with Renault ready for some huge amount of time looking forward since the future. And so being in the position where it looked like we couldn’t be properly competitive in any visible points in the future, it was just a very dark tunnel to be in.”
Newey has moved teams only rarely in the past. But he hasn’t hesitated to walk when he’s been unhappy about his situation within a team.
Speaking while Red Bull were on their way to a third championship sweep in as many years, Williams observed: “There’s still a problem, it’s called Adrian Newey. There’s only one of him.”
That observation is arguably as true now as it was 12 years ago when Red Bull were last dominating the sport. Mercedes became the team to beat from 2014 to 2021, but the key to that was their mastery of the new power unit regulations while Red Bull struggled with the uncompetitive engines which almost drove Newey to quit.
The identity of future F1 champions therefore rests on where Newey decides to go next. If he chooses to go anywhere, of course – at 65, he may be ready to lay his 0.3mm 4H technical drawing pencil to rest.
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However his comments in Red Bull’s announcement do not suggest he’s ready to stop. “I feel now is an opportune moment to hand that baton over to others and to seek new challenges for myself,” he said. That’s a ‘new’ challenge – not necessarily a different one.
Much has been made of Newey’s answer, in the same interview, to whether he regretted never joining Ferrari. “Emotionally, I guess, to a point, yes,” he said. “But just as, for instance, working with Fernando [Alonso] or Lewis [Hamilton] would have been fabulous, it never happened.”
Since then Hamilton has signed a deal to drive for Ferrari next year. They are the only team to have beaten Red Bull to a victory in the past 12 months and Italian media are already reporting Newey has met team principal Frederic Vasseur.
No doubt Lawrence Stroll would be prepared to spend big to add Newey to his collection of ex-Red Bull staff at Aston Martin. Mercedes would also be a logical target, though CEO Toto Wolff gave little indication he was seriously considering making a bid for the man whose mastery of ground effect aerodynamics would appear to be exactly what they need at Brackley.
“Adrian Newey is an iconic engineer in Formula 1 with a great track record and again, also there are so many people talking about what he eventually might do and whether he leaves Red Bull or not,” he told Reuters before Newey’s departure was announced. “I’m just looking at it like a fan and watching that space.”
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Newey is unlikely to consider joining a team which lacks a crucial works engine deal, and he probably views Renault’s current efforts (as Alpine) in much the same way he did 10 years ago. Audi is a complete unknown, though as with Ferrari he would have to be prepared to work outside the UK.
Newey’s ability to hone in on the optimum solution to a complex new set of regulations quicker than anyone is second to none. He did it for McLaren with narrow-track cars in 1998, he did it for Red Bull when the ‘Overtaking Working Group’ rules arrived in 2009 – aside from the detail of the ‘double diffuser’, the legality of which was hotly disputed – and he did it for Red Bull again when the current rules were introduced two years ago.
Teams will have far less time to prepare themselves for the coming chassis regulations change than they did the last one. Depending where he goes, Newey’s input may well decide whether Hamilton gets his eighth title, Alonso his long-awaited third, or another driver their first.
That point will surely not be lost on Max Verstappen, who has repeatedly stressed the importance of internal stability to Red Bull’s success, and whose future at Red Bull is also increasingly a matter of speculation despite his long-term contract. Is he also thinking it does not look like ‘business as usual’ at his team any more?
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Phil Norman (@phil-f1-21)
1st May 2024, 13:07
A very good read/summary. Thank you.
I am not sure where he will go though. No one is. If I had to guess, I would say Ferrari or Mercedes. I just cannot see him going to AM and I think Audi is still too much or an unknown.
Mark (@mrcento)
1st May 2024, 21:20
I’m not sure the works engine deal is the issue the article speculates may be, Mercedes have shown (to be totally fair to them) that their customers will get full support, even if that means making the works team look poorer.
I do think all roads though still lead to Ferrari. At 65/66, it’s likely his last big job in F1 and the sheer romanticisim of him retiring having ticked off 2 boxes on his wish list and returning the most iconic F1 team to the top of the pile (beating the team he helped make a dominant force in the process) pretty much rounds his career off in a way no other move can.
Nick T.
2nd May 2024, 0:24
The more I look at this from all angles, including Newey’s words, Aston Martin is the only place that makes sense. It ticks basically every single box Newey has traditionally looked for .
Unless wants to somehow maximize his legacy and name recognition (never seemed to be big AN motivators), I can’t see why he’s go to Ferrari. It ticks almost every box that Newey doesn’t like.
So, IMO, AM or he’ll go for a design challenge outside of F1.
AlanD
2nd May 2024, 12:48
Nick, given his age, I wondered if he is just planning to retire. Or maybe he will go to another team on a two year contract as a “technical adviser”, to get them onto the right lines but without the pressure week in and week out, without the five year plans to build a car up to a competitive level, etc.
MichaelN
1st May 2024, 13:21
It’s definitely interesting that he’s left it open as to what he intends to do next. But who knows, it may have already been decided and they’re just rolling out the news in stages. Hamilton’s move to Ferrari was a huge surprise, but apparently many people – including Leclerc – knew about it for quite a while. So Wolff’s comments don’t seem all that credible. There’s no way that someone picks up on Newey’s potential exit and decides to ‘watch as a fan’. No way.
SteveP
1st May 2024, 17:54
Quite likely that he hasn’t told them, that way RB can’t apply their spin to the announcement of his new activity.
If he isn’t “a free agent” until 12 months from now, is that largely vacation time, or maybe he is free enough before then to do some design work for something like Ferrari entries in various other race formats?
I do wonder how many others will leave RBR as a result of Horner’s ‘adventures’
Nick T.
2nd May 2024, 0:10
1. If I was giving odds, Aston & Ferrari = two real candidates.
2. 55% chance he goes to AM IMO: He has a good working relationship w/Honda. AM will be a much lower stress + conflict environment. He knows Lawrence will give him 99% control (100% if Lance leaves) and huge amounts of $ which never hurts. Only con is Lance and he actually might not mind the lower stress level of having only one top driver.
3. 40% Ferrari If it’s all about legacy and fame, he’ll go to Ferrari. Otherwise, talk about a place famous for politics…He’d have to commute.
4. 5% Merc: I just can’t see him going to Mercedes and Toto. Not because of the sometimes bitter rivalry, but their drivers are an unknown, he’d have to learn both a new team and engine team and he’s already worked with and won with Merc (at McLaren).
Related per AN leaving:
-While I initially put 90% of the unpleasant politics at Jos, Helmut and Max’s door, I learned that the woman at the center of the Horner dispute was Newey’s assistant. So, that is likely another factor pushing him out the door.
-I still think the Helmut/Jos gambit is the primary mover as Christian and Horner have always been close. Not so with Helmut. And I doubt he has any personal regard for Max (respect, but not personal affection).
-Beyond it all, Newey probably craves another new challenge and a clean slate environment wise.
Tristan
2nd May 2024, 7:31
Where did you get that idea? She was Horner’s PA.
MacLeod (@macleod)
2nd May 2024, 8:18
It was reported she was PA of Both gentlemens.
AlanD
2nd May 2024, 12:51
I didn’t know that. Suddenly that makes a lot more sense.
Nick T.
2nd May 2024, 0:14
I think his fan remark is because he knows he has no chance of getting him. Of course Toto wants a magic bullet to make him look good again. But having a rookie, Bin Russell and Toto himself can’t be appealing.
There’s also not nearly as much room at MB for Newey to get the level of control, a team stake, a veto, etc. he has become used to and wound want.
AlanD
2nd May 2024, 12:53
Bin Russell? Would that be Osama Bin Russell?
Sonny Crockett (@sonnycrockett)
1st May 2024, 13:32
I wish he’d return to McLaren but we all know that’s highly unlikely.
Matthew Ellis
1st May 2024, 14:20
At 65 he may simply step back and focus on other projects.
Nick T.
2nd May 2024, 0:26
70, but looks 105. But he’s always looked worn out and older than he is.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
2nd May 2024, 4:03
He was born late 1958, he’s definitely 65, not 70.
Nick T.
2nd May 2024, 4:21
Someone gave me bad info recently. In fact, I think it was F1TV.
Crawliin-from-the-wreckage-(Unhinged) (@davedai)
2nd May 2024, 1:42
I think 30 years post Senna was a good and and appropriate time to announce he’s done with F1.
osnola
2nd May 2024, 14:43
according to some news (saward e.a) it was not his intention to put out the newsbulletin on that day. He wanted to stay away from the date that had a great impact on his carreer.
It was Horner who insisted to send it out on the Senna memorial day.
Crawliin-from-the-wreckage-(Unhinged) (@davedai)
2nd May 2024, 15:11
Yet he did.
I don’t place much credence on some news sources etc.
Can’t see him being led by the nose by anyone.
G (@unklegsif)
1st May 2024, 14:57
Joe Saward left a little easter egg on his twitter feed when this broke, saying that Newey had never won Le Mans….
That would lend one to a number of possible conclusions
a) Ferrari, with their already established HyperCar concept
b) Aston, possibly deciding to enter their Newey designed Valkyrie
c) That there is more to this than first thought. For example, the statements say that he will step back from RBR to concentrate on the RB17, and that he will leave RB Technology Group in Q1 2025/6. Now, call me a cynic, but does that open the possibility for him to work on an RB17 WEC or Le Mans project, albeit under say, Red Bull Advanced Technologies, with who Newey developed the Valkyrie and RB17
d) none of the above / something different
Nick T.
2nd May 2024, 0:34
The only way he works with Ferrari, IMO, is in a non-F1 capacity. So, that’s make sense. I think AM with lighter duties in F1 and LM for fun would make a lot of sense. Lawrence will take whatever he can from Newey even if it’s just consulting / guidance or quarter time work at $50+ million a year. Newey isn’t the type to do just a little designing though. If he gets interested or involved in a design, he becomes obsessive.
RE: Seward. He’s such an awful person, it’s been ages since I read his blog. He’s wrong as often as he is right on big predictions. He’s generally reliable though and typically is good at pointing out why something won’t happen. AKA logic. Something that seems in short stock today.
G (@unklegsif)
2nd May 2024, 6:30
I think describing him as “such an awful person” is a bit strong, to say the least
G (@unklegsif)
3rd May 2024, 10:01
Huge contradictions of yourself here @Nick T.
If you havent read his blog for ages, how can you know whether he has been right or wrong about anything, let alone be reliable about ANYTHING
G
Nick T.
4th May 2024, 10:06
A sample size of about five years is plenty to know. As I said, he’s generally reliable with his non-earth shattering scoops (which is great). But he’s often confidently declared he was 100% sure something was or wasn’t happening only for it to be wrong. That’s not my problem with him though. My problem with him though is sheer arrogance and spitefulness. He so often demeaned anyone who disagreed with him, even in a constructive and polite man. And god forbid someone corrected him. It’s why when I first started reading him his articles would get 100+ comments. But, after just a few years, it was down to usually less than a dozen. Often none. His own readers just couldn’t stomach him anymore. I have swung by once in a while over the past seasons and it seemed like his community was growing a bit again.
I’m hardly alone on this. Just google search his name + [insert common criticisms] and you’ll find a lot of very specific stories about his behavior. It’s not just fans either. It’s well known that he’s loathed in the paddock.
Nick T.
4th May 2024, 10:10
BTW, @unklegsif, just do an experiment for me and disagree with something/anything he said and see his reaction. If you’re lucky, he’ll say that he’s too busy stopping at such and such cafe that only he knows who serve a lovely [insert some regional specialty] to be bothered with your witless opinion.
Broderick Harper (@banbrorace)
1st May 2024, 14:58
I’d be astonished of he doesn’t end of Ferrari and even more astonished if Hamilton hasn’t been given some indication that he would going there.
David BR (@david-br)
1st May 2024, 16:46
@banbrorace Definitely a possibility. I’m sure we’ll find out in due course.
Nick T.
2nd May 2024, 0:38
I wonder if there’s somewhere we can gamble on it. I’d wager he doesn’t go to Ferrari, unless they set up a remote office for him in England, ensure no jealous department heads interfere with him (because he likes designing every aspect of the car – not just the aero) and guarantee him freedom from politics. It might be something the new Ferrari can do though.
I am also certain nothing was going on with Newey when Lewis signed w/Ferrari. Horner Gate was still well in the future.
Edvaldo
1st May 2024, 15:04
He was supposed to move on to other things years ago and stayed.
What’s left for him to do? He designed cars that made almost a dozen drivers champions, an unprecendent level of domination with Red Bull now.
Only thing left really, if he’s passionate for that, is to do it with Ferrari.
Dane
1st May 2024, 15:09
I think it’s got to be Ferrari or retirement for Adrian. Reading his book I felt like there was some unfinished business at Ferrari. With Lewis going to the Scuderia I think Adrian might to tempted for one last hurrah. Designing a title winning Ferrari would be a nice notch on his belt.
Kenneth Jefferson
1st May 2024, 21:25
Agreed
Nulla Pax (@nullapax)
1st May 2024, 15:40
The world of F1 is truly his oyster isn’t it.
Just going to have to wait and see.
Tristan
1st May 2024, 18:43
It took Newey 3 months to leave since Hornergate started. That’s pretty quick in the grand scheme.
I wonder if at any point Horner will regret not leaving apologetically as he watches his team become a shell of what it was.
Le Jimster (@lejimster82)
1st May 2024, 19:26
Honestly, I think it depends how much of the team departs following Newey. Newey gets a lot of the credit for these dominant cars, but most of the aero work is broken up into smaller teams working on different parts of the car. If that team remains and they have a competitive engine, they won’t suddenly stop winning any time soon. However, if the engine is uncompetitive.. I could see that as a reason why he would want to jump ship.
Broderick Harper (@banbrorace)
1st May 2024, 19:33
That’s because it’s clear he was always going to leave and ‘Hornergate’ had little, if anything to do with it
Nick T.
2nd May 2024, 0:41
How is that clear? I think you’re retconning Lewis and Newey with a master plan now after everything has shaken out.
Kenneth Jefferson
1st May 2024, 21:11
Wherever this guy goes shortly thereafter someone is going to be a champion
osnola
1st May 2024, 23:26
Thats true every year..
An Sionnach
2nd May 2024, 0:26
A significant mover, but not in the driver market… unless his next challenge is also to drive his own cars. You heard it here on RaceFans first!
Nick T.
2nd May 2024, 0:43
He is a significant in the driver market. Maybe not for next season. But every driver will be angling to go where he ends up (assuming he stays in F1).
Nick T.
2nd May 2024, 0:43
significant mover*
An Sionnach
2nd May 2024, 2:08
Yes, you’re right. That must be what they mean, too. Thanks!
If he continues in F1, he should go to the team with the best resources and he may attract more talent and the best drivers to the team. This might help him to succeed beyond his own considerable abilities!
Alesici
2nd May 2024, 7:38
Cmon Adrian, join Andretti!!!! You know it makes sense! It’d really annoy all the current teams no end!
Although stranger things haven’t really happened, bear in mind Senna wasn’t that far from joining the Jordan team in roughly their 3rd year in 1993. When you’ve become as legendary as those 2, you can afford to gamble on biting off a bit too much to chew. It could be fun to build something up from its very beginnings with relatively little meaningful pressure, and incredibly fulfulling if you actually bring it success.
MurasamaRA300 (@murasamara300)
2nd May 2024, 9:25
Yes! Join Andretti! 100%.
Would love to see that happening.
Cranberry
2nd May 2024, 11:04
As much as I’d want it to be Ferrari, there’s one big problem…; it’s going to be Aston Martin, there is already a connection there from various prototype work they’ve done with RedBull, and Newey will get to work for F1 projects and LeMans.
…Ferrari has far too many Italians.
Moi
2nd May 2024, 11:48
So much baseless speculation on this site.
First that newey is leaving because of Horner. Zero evidence.
Then that he is going to another team. Again, zero evidence.
Then thag Max has an exit clause if Newey leaves. Zero evidence.
No wonder the tabloid industry thrives so in the UK.
baasbas
2nd May 2024, 12:01
@Moi
You have a point and there are plenty of articles that deserve your criticism. But this one.. I mean isn’t it the purpose of this site to combine news facts with opinion pieces to start a debate and opening a discussion? I think it is fun to speculate what could happen from this point on. I don’t like speculation presented as facts, that would be tabloid behavior, but I don’t see that here.
Moi
2nd May 2024, 13:56
Fair enough I suppose.
Craig
2nd May 2024, 16:43
To address each of your points;
Newey leaves Red Bull because of Horner – It’s a highly probable situation as there’s been plenty of figurative smoke from Red Bull recently and there’s no smoke without fire. Whether it’s specifically Horner or some other background rumbling causing this fire is still up for debate, but I doubt there’s many hands in Red Bull entirely free of ash at present.
Newey going to another team – It’s hardly a secret every other team on the grid would want Horner and there’s already plenty of confirmed reports of approaches being made. Nothing might be officially signed yet (considering how quickly Hamilton’s signing at Ferrari came out I can’t see Newey having signed anything being kept secret for more then a handful of hours) but it still remains as likely he’ll go to another team as him retiring.
Vestappen has an exit clause based on Newey’s presence at Red Bull – This is an entirely new one on me from the last day or two. Vestappen’s bound to have exit clauses of some sort but I doubt Newey (or Horner or Marko) is specifically mentioned in any of them. It’s entirely possible Newey leaving will cause others to look at other options as well, drivers included.