Can McLaren or Ferrari deny Verstappen victory after his narrow pole triumph?

Just a matter of weeks ago, no one would have been surprised to hear that Max Verstappenwould take pole position at Imola for the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix.

But what would have seemed routine a month ago was anything but on Saturday. Verstappen’s joy at holding onto pole after a challenging start to the weekend demonstrated just how much he had had to work for this one.

“It’s been a while that I’ve felt like we’ve been that far off,” he admitted after qualifying. “In Singapore, we were off the whole weekend, so that was just a terrible weekend. But here we were also quite far off and then we managed to turn it around. So it must be at least five, six years, because I don’t really remember being able to turn it around like that.”

Data from the session revealed that he had gained enough time on the McLarens of Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris by slipstreaming Nico Hulkenberg’s Haas at the start of his final lap that that could have been the difference between qualifying on pole or third. But it also suggests that McLaren may have truly drawn level with the early-season pace setters.

Now it is a question of how hard Norris and Piastri may be able to push the world champion – or if Ferrari will prove more of a threat in race trim than they did on Sunday.

Either way, there are plenty of signs that this could be the most competitive and intriguing Sunday of the season so far.

Weather

Over the first two days of the weekend, the conditions have been as consistent and comfortable as playing a racing game with the settings on ‘clear’. Sunny with temperatures in the mid-20s Celsius, the track conditions have been virtually identical across the four sessions so far.

Heading into the weekend, there were signs that Sunday could see that all change with rain expected to arrive in the afternoon, around the time of the race start. However, as the weekend has progressed, that threat appears to be gradually decreasing.

While there is still a minor risk of rain from 3pm local time – when the race will begin – the chance is much lower than was previously forecast. The risk of rain does pick up as the afternoon progresses, but by the time it is at its highest, the race should be finished.

Drivers can therefore expect a dry race with ambient temperatures in the mid-20s once more, but perhaps with more cloud cover than Friday and Saturday.

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Start

After qualifying, Norris was quick to point out that Sunday’s race could be decided by the run to the Tamburello chicane.

Since its return to the F1 calendar in 2020, there has only been one dry start across the three races at Imola – that same year in 2020. The dogleg layout of the pit straight at the circuit adds a different dynamic to the run to the first corner, with drivers having to be acutely aware of where cars are to both sides of them – as Formula 2’s sprint race showed.

In the three race starts – one in the dry, one in full wet and one in damp conditions – the car on pole has led the opening lap twice; Valtteri Bottas in 2020 and Verstappen in 2022. If Norris is eager to beat the Red Bull driver to take the lead of the race on Sunday, he will not like to be reminded that Verstappen has gained a total of three positions over those three grid starts and held the lead the one time he started from pole.

Norris might be grateful that pole position is located on the left hand side of the grid, furthest from the pit wall. Although Verstappen will be able to assume the inside line on the run to turn one if he wishes, Norris may find the outside line preferable as it could allow him the better route into the second part of the chicane – just how F2 winner Franco Colapinto and third-placed Zane Maloney showed during their respective late passes in the sprint race.

Strategy

With no fully dry races at Imola since 2020, there is little useful data on 18-inch rubber for teams to look back on ahead of tomorrow’s race. Pirelli have also brought a suite of compounds which are one step softer than it has previously used at this track, which will mean teams will have to rely on their practice data instead – which luckily they have plenty of.

However, one major factor which will affect pit strategy on Sunday is the unusually high amount of time it takes to make a pit stop. Coming in costs drivers around 28 seconds, thanks to the length of the pit straight and how fast drivers blast down it. As a result, Pirelli’s Mario Isola says they expect a one-stop strategy to be “almost obligatory” during the race tomorrow.

“The C3 [hard] and C4 [medium] appear to be competitive over a long run and, fairly predictably, they will be the most popular choices for the race, with the C5 [softs] eventually being an option for the closing stages, especially if there is a Safety Car,” he said. “Those banking on that to happen could decide to start on the hards to extend the first stint as much as possible, before switching to the mediums or maybe even the softs.”

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Overtaking

Back when Imola was a mainstay on the F1 calendar following its major revisions after the black weekend 30 years ago, Imola was renowned for producing little in the way of overtaking. While the modern pit straight offers more opportunities with a longer full throttle run to turn one, the relatively narrow track is still a challenge to pass one.

This year, overtaking into Tamburello is likely to be even harder with the single DRS activation point having been moved 100 metres further down the pit straight than the last race in 2022. A move that has left Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc slightly perplexed.

“It’s one of the most difficult tracks to overtake on,” Leclerc told the official F1 channel. “Also I don’t quite understand why the DRS is shorter this year, which is going to make overtakes a bit more difficult.”

Safety Cars

Many drivers have expressed how pleased they are to see many of the extended asphalt run-off areas around Imola replaced by traditional gravel traps, especially around Piratella, Acque Minerale and the exit of Variante Alta. Providing a natural punishment for mistakes, there have been plenty of drivers who have tested them out over the first two days of the weekend.

As a result, the likelihood of Safety Cars has increased compared to previous years. A likelihood that is already high based on historical data, with four Safety Car periods across the last three races here.

Although three of those four came during wet and drying races, there was a Safety Car during the dry race of 2020 when Verstappen retired from the race with a car problem which sent him spinning into the gravel at the Villeneuve chicane. All it will take is one clash or one mistake and there is every chance that a Safety Car could transform the complexion of the race.

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One to watch

There is no shortage of drivers who will be worth keeping an eye on over Sunday’s race, with plenty of attention focused on what could be a very close battle at the front of the field. Further back, Sergio Perez is out of position in 11th place on the grid after a disappointing qualifying performance, while Fernando Alonso starts from 19th after one of his worst days in an F1 car for some time.

But one who will be interesting to watch is Kevin Magnussen, who will start from 18th in the Haas. His team mate, Nico Hulkenberg, will be looking to score points once again tomorrow, while Magnussen seems unlikely to be able to do from his lowly starting position.

However, Magnussen was likely to have reached Q2 had he not been blatantly blocked by Piastri at the end of Q1 and likely has much better pace than his starting position suggests. But he is also sitting just two penalty points away from a potential race ban after a spate of penalties over the start of the season. With a tight field expected and overtaking opportunities hard to come by, all it takes is one misjudgement on Sunday and Magnussen could suffer the shame of being the first driver banned for a race under the modern superlicence system.

Over to you

Will Verstappen single-handedly see off the threat of those behind him? Share your views on the Emilia-Romagna Grand Prix in the comments.

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