Two years ago, Max Verstappen headed into the Austrian Grand Prix Sunday looking like he was almost certain to win.
He’d taken pole position for the sprint race on Friday, won the sprint race on Saturday and was due to start from pole for the main event on Sunday.But instead, Charles Leclerc and Ferrari spoiled the party for Verstappen, his team and the many thousands of Dutch fans in attendance by executing a brilliant strategic race to beat the world champion to the chequered flag.
That weekend, Leclerc looked to be lacking the speed to beat Verstappen in a straight fight during the sprint race, only to comfortably match Verstappen’s speed over the course of the race. And in 2024, McLaren have to find a way to emulate Ferrari’s achievement if they are to avoid being beaten into second place for the fifth consecutive race.
“From the pace advantage Max had today, that’s probably going to carry into something tomorrow as well,” Norris admitted after qualifying. “Then into quali today, it showed that they were just a pretty good step ahead of us. So we’ll see. It’s another day.”
Weather
Heavy rain is expected to reach the Red Bull Ring on Sunday – but not until well after the chequered flag falls.
However, in Formula 1, it does not always need to rain for weather to play a major factor in the outcome of a race. With sun beating down over the circuit for Saturday’s two sessions, track temperatures rose from the mid-to-high 40s Celsius during the sprint race, which did little to help drivers with their overheating rubber. Sunday’s grand prix will begin two hours later, which could stress tyres even further as the circuit will have more time to bake in the sun.
With drivers having already had to deal with their tyres overheating in the sprint race, warmer temperatures could limit the level of overtaking we see during the grand prix as drivers may be unable to push without losing grip. This could lead to the kind of tactics seen last weekend in Barcelona by McLaren and Lando Norris, where he bided his time and saved his tyres behind George Russell until he was released into clear air and could make use of his extra pace.
The heat will pose challenges for more than just tyre management. Throughout the sprint race Ferrari gave Leclerc and Carlos Sainz Jnr constant instructions to cool down their cars’ brakes. Although Ferrari had the opportunity to change their car’s settings before qualifying began to help with the problem, a longer race distance in slightly hotter conditions will not make the challenge any easier.
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Start
On Sunday, however, Norris will not have a friendly car alongside him on the grid after his team mate’s best time was deleted in Q3, but the driver who managed to beat both Norris and Verstappen on the run to turn one last weekend: George Russell. However Russell downplayed his chances of making a similar leap up to the front on Sunday.
“I think it’s a bit more challenging here,” he said. “I think [Verstappen and Norris] always get their elbows out. So maybe this time it’s sit back and watch it all take place.”
But while the start of the race can be critical, the window of opportunity extends over the opening laps of the race. As the Spanish GP and Saturday’s sprint race highlighted, there is a short but crucial period before the tyres lost their early grip and drivers are forced to begin managing temperatures where they can truly push to pass rivals ahead.
Once those handful of laps have passed, however, that is when drivers are forced to settle into their management phase. So if Norris or Russell have a chance of beating Verstappen on Sunday, getting ahead early and staying there for the opening laps will be vital.
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Strategy
With the level of degradation seen over the weekend and warmer track temperatures expected for Sunday’s race, you can rule out anyone trying a one-stop strategy this weekend.
Last year, Verstappen dominated with what was effectively a two-stop strategy which only became a three-stop as he enjoyed such an advantage over Leclerc that he could afford to stop again for softs to take the fastest lap on the final lap. Starting on mediums, Verstappen’s strategy of a hard middle stint ran opposite to his four closest rivals, who all ran back-to-back mediums stints before switching to softs for their third and final stint.
However, this year’s race is likely to be warmer than the last, which will give the drivers greater challenge to keep their tyres in good shape across the stint. Even so, Pirelli still predict that a two-stop strategy is the way to go with a similar combination of the medium and hard compounds.
“A one-stop is not a realistic choice,” explained Pirelli’s motorsport director Mario Isola. “Not because of tyre wear, but in terms of degradation and pace, although a three-stop could work if there is a Safety Car in the second part of the race, or if degradation is higher than expected. In this case, even the C5 [softs] could come into play – albeit not in a major way.”
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Overtaking
But while Norris and Russell would no doubt love to take the lead off the Red Bull at the start or at any stage of the race, Russell says he is taking a different mentality into Sunday’s race after losing out in Spain last weekend.
“I think last week I lost a lot of time battling with Lando and probably focused too much on the guys ahead of me,” Russell admitted. “Ultimately, that cost me the position to Lewis [Hamilton] and almost with Charles as well. So I think the race is behind us tomorrow.”
This means that rather than pushing to stay with Verstappen to try and get by him on track, playing the long game with the strategy will be much more effective.
Safety Cars
Not only did every driver successfully finish the sprint race, there was barely a single incident that required a yellow flag across the 23 laps. Will the grand prix prove equally incident-free?
If so, this could be only the second grand prix at the Red Bull Ring over the last seven held at the circuit to run green through the 71 laps. Once again, the opening laps naturally have the highest chance of generating a Safety Car incident, but five of the last eight interventions at the Red Bull Ring were triggered by incidents beyond the first lap of the race.
Any Safety Car deployed within the middle 60 laps of the race is likely to trigger major action in the pit lane with teams taking advantage to complete one of the multiple pit stops that each driver will be expected to make. If one does happen, then just like Miami and Canada, the timing and positioning of the cars at the point the Safety Car is deployed could well be a race-deciding factor.
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One to watch
If the McLaren is as good as the team’s rivals all suggest it is – that is to say at least as good as the Red Bull, if not slightly superior, then Piastri has a chance to prove that by getting through many of their closest competitors as he seeks a return to the podium. After struggling to do that last weekend, this will be an interesting test of both his car and his abilities.
Over to you
Will Verstappen complete his dominance of the Austrian Grand Prix weekend on Sunday? Have your say in the comments below.
2024 Austrian Grand Prix
- Austrian GP clash will have taught Norris how to race Verstappen – Ricciardo
- Verstappen was “lucky” tyre damage didn’t force him to retire like Norris
- Pirelli introducing new C6 tyre to improve racing on street tracks next year
- Norris admits ‘overreacting’ but queries why Verstappen avoided track limits penalty
- Norris and Verstappen’s Austrian GP collision “blown out of proportion” – rivals
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SteveR (@stever)
30th June 2024, 0:48
This analysis is all good and well, but Verstappen seems to be in another league. He has really matured in the last couple of years and is driving amazingly well. Good luck to McLaren and Mercedes and Ferrari…… On another topic, what is going on with Perez? Should Red Bull replace him?
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
30th June 2024, 7:45
Ofc they should replace him, but will they? I’m guessing only really if they feel pressured, and atm if you look at the situation in both championships, it doesn’t look like that, it would take incredible consistency by mclaren to eventually catch red bull in the constructor’s championship, a slip (a driver retiring) and they lose ground again.
Nick T.
30th June 2024, 9:52
I think it’s more likely that incessant media pressure would see them dump him than worrying about the WCC. They can’t enjoy Perez’s struggles generating as many headlines and more social media discussion than Max’s success. Constantly having to answer questions about Perez is yet another irritation they’d rather do without. But Perez probably allows Horner and the other executives to give themselves $15m bonuses. $15m in your wallet buys a lot of patience.
Johns
30th June 2024, 5:14
Perez was signed to supposedly reduce the drama at. red bull now. But ingotta tell you, being so far behind Max, makes me think Perez cannot adapt his driving style to the red bull.
I think ricardo may get his seat so ricardo has one last chance at proving his worth.
Jere (@jerejj)
30th June 2024, 5:44
Ricciardo already lost his chance in any case.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
30th June 2024, 7:46
Why not tsunoda? So far he’s doing better than ricciardo on average, it would feel weird to promote the worse driver of a team.
Nick T.
30th June 2024, 9:54
Tsunoda has earned it more, but Daniel loves the Max set up. I’d like to see each of them give 2-3 races in the RBR, but it’s not going to happen. I doubt anything is going to happen.
Mayrton
30th June 2024, 9:15
I agree from the two Tsunoda would be the most obvious. I think however both are sub par, hence there is no hurry and this plays into Perez hands, together with the argument he doesn’t rock any boat and keeps the peace within the team. RedBull has little interest in the WCC. You sell soda based on a champ. They do not have to sell cars.
Jere (@jerejj)
30th June 2024, 5:43
Will Verstappen complete his dominance of the Austrian Grand Prix weekend on Sunday?
– I think so.
bosyber (@bosyber)
30th June 2024, 5:55
Well, glad to read Russell has thought about what he should be looking for in the race, while his fight with Norris was fun, it also probably stopped us from having a better fight for the lead, and indeed might have cost him a podium, which lack of understanding of the races seems to me as typical of why I tend to sigh whenever he is high on the grid, eager to fight his battles and lose the race. Hope that improves then.
Nick T.
30th June 2024, 9:57
To be fair to Russell, it’s not his job to make the race for first more exciting for us. That said, for someone who initially got this reputation for being a “big thinker” in the car seemingly aware of the big picture, he’s since gained a reputation for being unable to execute a smart, clean race at or near the front.
Nick T.
30th June 2024, 9:48
OT, but there’s no relevant article for this on page 1 right now. Kimi Antonelli is struggling enough right now that I’m beginning to wonder if a one or two year is becoming possible for Sainz at Merc with either another F2 year for Kimi followed by Williams or straight to Merc and swap Sainz to Williams if he does well enough in F2. To me this makes the most sense for Mercedes, but they also seem desperate to keep their seat open for Max as long as possible. I also think it’s why Sainz is delaying and he’s smart to. All of those teams are going to wait for him. No one is going to panic sign Ocon or Bottas because they’re afraid they’ll lose him.
Nick T.
30th June 2024, 10:08
Bearman looks pretty mediocre out there too. One of the reason it always surprises me that many fans behave as if there is a huge crowd of amazing prospects being denied a chance. However, I’d be the first to agree that too many F2 champs have been denied a chance when you have the likes of Zhou, Sargeant, Checo, Magnussen and Lance totally wasting seats with Bottas probably deserving of a seat but still being a very boring driver to have on the grid. It’s why F1, instead of having 25 races (basically two seasons worth of races compared to the 90s), should have 22 rounds + three non-championship races at UK tracks where teams are required to put rookies in one of the two seats so we can see how they stack up.
Phil Norman (@phil-f1-21)
30th June 2024, 10:35
I really don’t follow F2 all that closely but Kimi doesn’t look to me like he’s ready to take over a seat at an F1 Mercedes. I think he needs a year with Williams at the very least or maybe another year in F2.
This does beg the question, who is going to have that Merc seat next year? There’s no obvious answer.
Nick T.
30th June 2024, 11:56
It’d be hilarious if Mercedes didn’t bring Sainz on for a year or two and STILL didn’t sign Mick, who he has been telling everyone how much they’re missing out on, to a one-year deal. Toto is so desperate to make up for missing out on Max and not being Ross Brawn.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
30th June 2024, 13:22
Well, even though they took him as reserve driver, someone who performed like schumacher jr. can’t just jump in one of the top cars, and mercedes no longer have that influence on williams they had years ago.
They could, like me, think he deserves another shot at f1 but that he’s (at least not yet) below the level required to perform at merc.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
30th June 2024, 13:23
he’s not ready to perform at merc.*
BLS (@brightlampshade)
30th June 2024, 11:44
If he can survive (as in not be punted) the first few laps then this should be an easy one for Verstappen. Even if he loses his lead once the tyres wear a bit he’ll be in a league of one vs the rest.
I just hope the Ferrari/Mercedes/Perez/Piastri battle is interesting. For that awesome prize of P3.
Nick T.
30th June 2024, 11:59
Perez? His battle will be staying ahead of the Hulk. But, no I’m kidding, I expect even Perez to be able to stay in the fight with 40 DRS zones and literally only 7 turns.
BLS (@brightlampshade)
30th June 2024, 12:31
I expect the others to be too busy fighting each other and Red Bull will just stick Perez on the ideal strategy which will drag him into a good position.
That or he’ll lose a front wing valiantly battling a Sauber.
Riccard
30th June 2024, 15:33
Well, the party was spoiled, but it didn’t exactly follow the script