Russell’s chance to make up for Montreal mishaps with Hollywood ending at home

Hollywood may have descended on the Formula 1 paddock once again at Silverstone, but Saturday’s qualifying session delivered a result that could have been ripped straight out of Tinsel Town.

Three British drivers in the top three positions on the grid at their home grand prix, led by George Russell – a man who is enjoying the best seven day span he has ever experienced in his Formula 1 career.

And what could be more fitting for the British Grand Prix than three Britons leading the field away at the start? A race in the rain, of course.

The last wet grand prix also happened to be the last time Russell started on pole this season – back in Montreal. There, Russell led the opening quarter of the race until a series of errors cost him a chance of a better result than third. Asked by RaceFans how he can avoid a similar slide on Sunday, Russell insisted that he’s a wiser driver for what happened in Canada.

“I said after Montreal, my sort of ‘risk/reward’ dial was turned up to the max and that sort of played against me at certain points,” he admitted.

“And just remembering that the race is won right at the end – it doesn’t matter what happens beforehand. So that was a good learning for me. We still came away with a podium, but every single scenario is so different.”

With the risk of rain extremely high, and a case to be made that arguably any of the top five drivers on the grid has reason to feel they could fight for the victory tomorrow, there’s a dizzying number of scenarios that could be set to play out on Sunday. Whichever one does, it’s likely to be one of the most entertaining and enthralling races of what is becoming an increasingly captivating season.

Weather

If you’re fortunate enough to be attending Sunday’s grand prix at Silverstone, do ensure you remember to bring some kind of waterproof clothing, poncho or umbrella. Because you’re going to need it.

The relentless rain that has imposed on the weekend is being stubborn enough to overstay its welcome into Sunday, with showers continuing to fall through the build-up to the start of the grand prix at 3pm local time. Although the risk of rain is lower for the hour leading up to the start of the race, the current forecast is for a high chance of rain into the latter part of the race.

Qualifying showed how rapidly the Silverstone track surface can dry out and how much grip levels can jump in a matter of minutes once the sun comes out. But with sustained and heavy rain over many hours, as was the case before final practice, it can take much longer for all that water soaked into the asphalt to dissipate, meaning the dry line can be much slower to develop despite 20 cars running around it.

If, by some bizarre environmental miracle, it remains entirely dry, expected ambient temperatures of 15C would make this potentially the coldest British Grand Prix since 2009. That year, Red Bull prevailed. Will that prove a good omen for Max Verstappen starting in fourth?

Start

Whereas most circuits are all about the few seconds between the lights going out on the grid until the leaders round the first corner, in terms of the drama at the start of the race, Silverstone regularly produces excitement almost throughout the entire opening lap.

From the multi-corner battle between Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton from Abbey up to its shocking end at Copse in 2021 to last year, where Lando Norris charged out front off the line as team mate Oscar Piastri pressured Verstappen all the way to that same Copse corner, Silverstone’s opening sectors offer several passing opportunities before drivers even reach the Hangar Straight.

Over the last 10 race starts at Silverstone, the driver starting from pole has led the opening lap only five times. But curiously, it has not happened since the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix in the covid-struck season of 2020.

Last year, Norris’s leap ahead of Verstappen into the lead of his home grand prix prompted one of the loudest roars Silverstone has heard in recent times. Can he go one better this time around and beat both Mercedes into first when the lights go out?

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Strategy

Speaking with RaceFans after qualifying, Pirelli motorsport director Mario Isola outlined that all the data they had collected from the three practice sessions confirmed their predictions that a one stop strategy is the best approach.

“If it is dry tomorrow, the quickest strategy is starting on the soft and moving to the medium,” Isola explained.

“There is also the option to start on the medium and move to the hard in the second stint of the race. In that case, you have a window for a pit stop that is very open. So if you plan a more conservative strategy with more flexibility, then also a medium-hard strategy is an option.

“A two-stop, on paper, is slower unless there is higher degradation on the compounds, compared to Friday. In that case, the two-stop could be an option using obviously two sets of soft and one set of medium.”

If the race starts in wet or damp conditions, expect teams to try to switch to the intermediates as long as possible. Silverstone is a ‘high-severity’ circuit when it comes to the loads that the tyres go through with many fast corners and sequences like Maggots and Becketts, which causes the extreme wet tyre to overheat compared to most other circuits. That could see drivers attempt to brave it out on intermediates for as long as possible if rain increases, or make an early switch from wets to inters if early rain starts to decrease.

Overtaking

From the first braking zone of Aintree to The Loop straight after it, to Brooklands at the end of the Wellington Straight, Copse corner, Stowe and even Vale towards the end of the lap, Silverstone is one circuit that offers opportunities to pass throughout the lap – with or without DRS.

The nature of the circuit also means that a driver who is overtaken, especially in the first sector, often has an immediate opportunity to strike back. If passed up the inside into The Loop, cut back up the inside into Village and reclaim the position, or slipstream along the Wellington Straight to attack back into Brooklands.

If it’s dry, overtaking could be limited by dirty air and tyre wear over what would typically be a one-stop race. However, if rain does affect play, then there could be some thrilling wheel-to-wheel action as was witnessed in Saturday’s Formula 2 race in the wet.

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Safety Cars

Given that Silverstone is such a wide, flowing circuit, it’s surprising how often incidents occur that result in either Safety Car or Virtual Safety Car interventions. Indeed, only one of the last ten grands prix held at the circuit – again, the 70th Anniversary Grand Prix of 2020 – ran entirely green without any intervention. There has not been a British Grand Prix without a Safety Car or VSC since 2012.

With the potential for rain, there’s a chance that the race could even begin behind the Safety Car, if conditions prove too wet before the start. Although that seems unlikely based on current forecasts.

The very long pit lane makes pitting under the Safety Car or a VSC ideal as the reduced speeds on track will massively reduce time loss in the pits. A well-timed intervention can always transform a race, but with rain and a strong historic pattern of Safety Cars, it may well be a major factor on Sunday.

One to watch

Although all eyes will, quite rightly, be focused at what could be an incredible battle at the front, do not overlook Nico Hulkenberg starting from sixth position on the grid in his Haas.

Last weekend, he managed to finish in the same position, even though his team principal admitted that the team’s race pace had been stronger the previous round in Barcelona but did not get the good fortune to gain any position higher than 11th. Here at Silverstone, Haas have a range of new parts that seem to be working well out of the box.

If Hulkenberg can harness them to take another strong top ten finish, then they make a strong statement of intent to RB ahead of them in the championship.

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Over to you

What do you expect from what could be a thrilling and unpredictable British Grand Prix? Share your views on the British Grand Prix in the comments.

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