Max Verstappen’s domination of Formula 1 was on another level last year. Even if he hadn’t come back after the summer break he would still have won the title by a point.
Because of that, and the fact Red Bull were still in strong shape as 2024 began, it’s easy to underestimate the quality of the job he’s done so far this year. Even as the threat from his rivals has grown stronger, he’s continued to pile up wins.Thanks to that he has amassed a lead of 84 points. That could prove enormously important in the second half of the season if the development trend we’ve seen so far this year continues.
As the British Grand Prix showed, Red Bull now face credible threats not only from McLaren but Mercedes as well. As those two teams continue to reap the benefits of being able to conduct more development under F1’s Aerodynamic Testing Rules (and not forgetting Ferrari, if they correct their course), Verstappen may find wins harder to come by in the second half of the year.
If that is how the second half of the championship plays out, Verstappen will be grateful for the 84 points he already has in hand, equivalent to more than three grands prix wins. He will also be relieved no driver has yet broken free from the chasing pack as a clear contender: While Verstappen has seven wins, five others have one each.
As long as Verstappen keeps finishing in the kind of high-scoring positions the RB20 is capable of, his fourth championship should be assured. The reliability of F1 cars these days can usually be taken for granted, his Australian Grand Prix retirement notwithstanding.
The greatest threat to Verstappen’s title therefore is the possibility he might throw points away in needless incidents. He didn’t do a great deal of that last year on his way to 19 victories from 22 grands prix, not least because his rivals, faced with the inevitability of Verstappen winning each weekend, had no need to risk anything when dicing with him.
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But the calculation has changed for Verstappen’s rivals now. Three of Red Bull’s rival teams know they have the potential to win races this year.
Verstappen’s capacity for restraint is underestimated by some. After his Austrian Grand Prix clash with Lando Norris there was no shortage of opinion pieces chiding him condescendingly for his “immaturity”.
But Verstappen has shown he is more shrew in judging how much to risk in wheel-to-wheel combat. He takes several factors into account. Does he stand a chance of holding his position or is he on the wrong side of a DRS-assisted ‘slam dunk’? Could he recover the place later or is this a final stint sprint to the flag? Is he racing a midfielder or a championship rival?
Based on the last few races, he may have to make those assessment more often over the coming months. And he has been willing to stay his hand when it suits him. Just a week after provoking contact with Norris in Austria, Verstappen let him go. “I think the overspeed of the McLaren was so big that he could have gone either side,” Red Bull team principal Christian Horner noted afterwards.
Lewis Hamilton’s pace in the final stint denied us a potentially fascinating glimpse into how much Verstappen is willing to risk with a championship on the line against a rival who, as things stand, is well out of it. No doubt Hamilton had every reason to fight tooth and nail for his first win in two-and-a-half years, but would Verstappen have been prepared to hold back and opt for a three-point gain on Norris instead of risking an 18-point swing to the McLaren driver?
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That 84-point lead is not as towering as it might seem now the championship lasts 24 weekends and it’s not just grand prix finishing positions which score. There are still up to 336 up for grabs.
Other drivers have learned nothing turns up the pressure like a rapidly diminishing championship lead. Recall how Mika Hakkinen practically erased Michael Schumacher’s advantage of nearly two-and-a-half wins over just three races in the middle of 2000. Or how 15 years ago Jenson Button failed to win any of the last 10 races while Sebastian Vettel whittled down a lead of over three wins.
The chances Verstappen might lose this championship are remote. But it is far from the done deal of 12 months ago, and much will depend on how much he chooses to risk in those split-second decisions when he goes wheel-to-wheel with his rivals.
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EffWunFan (@cairnsfella)
15th July 2024, 7:47
The fact that other ‘contenders’ remain likely to take points from each-other even ‘if’ the Red Bull dominance is largely over does make it likely – as you suggest – to be Max’s championship. Fortunately though, there is still enough in it to give us some hope that the battle is drawn out until much later in the season, and perhaps even the very end.
Red Andy (@red-andy)
15th July 2024, 8:07
And even if the championship battle is over pretty quickly, the closeness at the front of the field means that the individual races should retain their interest even if the title race remains rather one-sided.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
15th July 2024, 10:18
Yes, sort of like 2019: there was no championship battle, but there were 2 teams (ferrari and red bull) able to beat mercedes to race wins on merit, and ferrari should’ve won more than just 3 races if not for some mechanical problems and driver mistakes.
Mayrton
15th July 2024, 10:29
I agree, there is more to F1 than bickering over the top spot. If that wouldn’t be the case they would have lost all the audience in the previous regulatory period which saw just one car win all 8 seasons.
F1 frog (@f1frog)
15th July 2024, 10:47
I can think of few runs of four consecutive races as good as Canada-Spain-Austria-Britain 2024.
Nulla Pax (@nullapax)
15th July 2024, 10:20
I think Max is a safe bet for this years Championship win so long as he keeps his head and accepts a few defeats along the way.
All he has to do is keep grabbing podium finishes (which he is more than capable of) while the others take turns at finishing and he should be fine.
Next year could be very different though.
If the 2025 season starts like this one is now, then I think we could be in for one of the most chaotic and unpredictable seasons ever ….. I can’t wait :)
Mayrton
15th July 2024, 10:31
I agree.. as is commonly seen the last season before a regulatory change. Pity they keep making that mistake over and over; as soon as there is real convergence they change the rules again. No learning forward for the FIA/Liberty people unfortunately.
Stephen Taylor
15th July 2024, 10:33
Keith you are looking for drivers title battle that isn’t likely to happen If it were a Mercedes driver currently second in the points (paricularly Hamilton) then Max might lose the championship but the fact Norris and Leclerc are second and third in the points right now and that neither of those two seem mentally ready to go toe with Verstappen . Verstappen may not win the title as emphatically or stylishly as last year but he will still likely get over the line because his main challengers in terms of points likely Charles and Lando aren’t ready to topple him yet. If Merc had had a stronger satrt to to the season perhaps Lewis could have chased him down but that isn’t very likely given he’s over 140 points behind.
José Lopes da Silva
15th July 2024, 11:45
History shows that usually the driver ahead is able to manage the points advantage. In the process, he is able to manage risks on track, unlike his rivals who go on the offensive. The rival as, first, to keep himself above the remaining rivals; second, to be completely faultless while risk-taking.
It’s going to be an exciting half-season, from the racing standpoint, but I don’t expect Verstappen to loose it bar for some black swan.
SjaakFoo (@sjaakfoo)
15th July 2024, 11:48
Will it though?
His main competitor won one(!) race so far this season. His second, third, and fourth nearest competitors all won… one race. Unless one of them suddenly starts winning every race from now on and the rest stop winning anything, Max has a next to zero chance of losing the championship before the end of this season. And let’s face it, Max’s seven wins and the other four’s one race win each at the halfway point make it very unlikely one of them is suddenly going to be able to make up the difference with no competition from both Max and the other three for the remainder of the season.
Coventry Climax
15th July 2024, 14:45
You seem to not take into account that their machinery is not a static given.
The Red Bull in the hands of Verstappen was the fastest car at the start of the season, and it hasn’t been over the last couple of races. Ferrari have dropped the ball once again (boy did it take a lot of time for someone to come up with that at the caption competition) and I don’t expect them back at the front anytime soon. McLaren have created a fast car with their last updates, and Mercedes seem to have found a solution to their issues as well. All it takes is another update for one of these three contenders to maybe have a superior car for the rest of the season.
With Red Bull being heavily aero BoPped, and a second driver perfectly capable of putting in lousy performances all on his own, and not be there to back up the no. 1 driver, I wouldn’t put my money on Verstappen just yet.
David BR (@david-br)
15th July 2024, 19:20
@sjaakfoo It mostly depends on Mercedes perhaps. They seem to have the most potential still to extract from the car. If they can get level with Red Bull and Verstappen, it might get interesting, especially with two feisty drivers. McLaren may end up having a spoiling role, not enough to threaten Max but enough to win a few races and take from Mercedes. Ditto Ferrari even.
SjaakFoo (@sjaakfoo)
15th July 2024, 19:59
With two people fighting for wins in the same team, that’s ultimately just playing into Verstappen’s advantage. If Verstappen is to be challenged this season, he both needs a bunch of bad off-the-podium results, as well as a single challenger picking up at least 6 or 7 wins in the remainder of the season. If Mercedes’ drivers trade wins, that puts them equal with Max at best if they somehow manage to win all the remaining races. It would be quite the feat, but the odds are very much not in their favor I’d reckon.
David BR (@david-br)
16th July 2024, 15:58
@sjaakfoo I agree but it would be fascinating to watch. Mercedes the fastest team, Hamilton and Russell fighting for wins, Verstappen lurking just behind. It would be a three-way fight possibly. I’d like to see Norris (and Piastri) challenging, just doesn’t seem likely at present.
Robbie1
15th July 2024, 14:38
“there was no shortage of opinion pieces chiding him condescendingly for his “immaturity”
Yes, all from the same British “journalists” who blamed him for the Silverstone incident in their desperate attempt to absolve Lewis from any wrongdoing and by doing so turned one of the best seasons ever in a toxic pile of garbage.
But hey, that’s the British sportsmanship and gallantry they are known for….
Craig
15th July 2024, 16:00
I’d say his opinion holds considerably more weight then someone who tries to dismiss things “because they’re [insert nationality here]”
Robbie1
15th July 2024, 16:45
Yeah well, unless the person talking about “insert nationality here” is multi linguistic and therefore capable of spotting “insert nationality here” bias.
When it’s basically one nationality writing those opinion pieces it’s fair to say they are biased.
Broderick Harper (@banbrorace)
15th July 2024, 16:50
It’s nonsense and also an insult to their professional conduct to suggest they are biased.
When Lewis was blocked by Vettel at Canada 2019, there was outrage from the British medial that Seb was given a penalty – when Hamilton has had similar penalties for such actions in the past.
Or did you miss that bit of ‘unbiasedness’??!!
FrankT
15th July 2024, 20:31
No problem with you being offended. Everybody reading the F1 press who isn’t british basically agrees with that sentiment, the britsh F1 media IS biased, and regurlaly toxic too.
And you needing to go back to 2019 for an example, just isn’t a very strong argument, although you probably think it is.
Broderick Harper (@banbrorace)
15th July 2024, 16:46
He was to blame for the Silverstone incident. Later in the race, LeClerc showed how to avoid needless accidents, when you’ve a slim chance of defending / overtaking.
Let’s honest. Forget the Abu Dhabi farce – based on the Silverstone race Max would have had no-one else but himself to blame, if he’d lost the title.
Just like Lewis couldn’t get all the sympathy for the 2016 reliability issues, following his dozy qualifying at Baku.
They’re great drivers. But sometimes the foul up. Simple.
baasbas
15th July 2024, 19:50
@banbrorace
You’re remembering it wrong. Leclerc was even more to the inside of the corner than Verstappen was, yet despite that still no crash. Why? The big difference with the Leclerc situation was Hamilton not understeering into the Ferrari
And before this turns into the average fanboy argument: I also feel later in Brazil Hamilton did manage to avoid contact with Verstappen very wisely. I also think it is obvious Verstappen should have had a penalty for it. Even a 5s penalty would have put him behind Bottas at least
Mayrton
16th July 2024, 9:38
Yeah, I was reading with big surprise as well. The tangling of Lewis with Leclerc was the ultimate prove of Lewis’ (imho intentional) mistake. Leclerc left way less space than Max did, yet Lewis didn’t touch him since he was an entire car width further to the right. Unbelievable how things get twisted while there is actual footage. Anyway, time to move on…. I think both Mercedes and Lewis served their prison time from that moment onwards with their winless streak.
Mayrton
16th July 2024, 9:44
The British press displays hands down the most excessive and unreasonable patriotism and nationalism and fervent faith in national excellence and glory of any country I know. There are some deep disturbing trauma’s underneath this.
FrankT
16th July 2024, 11:16
Spot on! The vicious attacks last time when Verstappen and Norris collided, showed the rest of the world a deeply troubled collective mind by the Brits. They really look like a collective traumatized people.
David BR (@david-br)
15th July 2024, 19:16
Verstappen could finish 3rd in 7 or 8 races and still be ahead – and that’s assuming the same other driver wins every race. Extremely unlikely. So playing safe seems the best strategy. A few DNFs or low finishes after contact with rivals and the title suddenly looks more under serious real threat. It does depend on how the cars evolve in the second half of the season – maybe Red Bull and Verstappen can keep just that bit ahead. Their main advantage just now seems to be having no clear and consistent rival from race to race.
I have an opinion
16th July 2024, 2:45
This season could play out like 2009 – not a bad thing!
Yes (@come-on-kubica)
16th July 2024, 12:52
2 or 3 verstappen dnfs in the next 5 races would be fantastic. Need the Mercedes punt as per 2021 at Silverstone and Hungary to reduce the gap.