Red Bull arrived at last year’s Miami Grand Prix in a strong position. They’d swept the opening four rounds of the season and only failed to fill the top two places once.
In the second year under F1’s new technical regulations it was clear Red Bull’s design team, headed by chief technical officer Adrian Newey, had sussed its intricacies far better than any of their rivals had. Prior to the Miami race, Red Bull let it be known Newey’s contract had been renewed.Max Verstappen, who was about to embark on a record-breaking run of 10 consecutive grand prix wins, reiterated his commitment to the team ahead of the race weekend, while stressing the importance of continuity among their championship-winning staff.
“Nothing will influence anything to ’28 because I have a contract,” he said. “But I’m very happy, of course, that Adrian stays.
However the picture has changed drastically in the year-and-a-half since then. Red Bull are no longer the competitive force they once were and several high-profile names have confirmed their departures. Inevitably, many are wondering whether the two things are related and, above all, whether their three-times champion driver might be the next to leave.
Red Bull’s downturn in form has made Verstappen’s championship lead, which once seemed almost unassailable, look more vulnerable. He’s still the overwhelming favourite to clinch this year’s crown, but a stumble over the final rounds could make the threat from Lando Norris much more serious.
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But while Red Bull showed they have begun solving their problems with Verstappen’s run to second place in Singapore, the brain drain at the team may concern the driver more. The loss of Newey to Aston Martin inevitably made big headlines, but he is one of several significant figures who has left or will do soon. Newey is Aston Martin’s second major hiring from Red Bull after Dan Fallows, who was their chief engineer for aerodynamics, and switched teams in 2022.
The same role at Red Bull is currently held by Jonathan Wheatley. He will relinquish the position at the end of the year and join Sauber as its team principal, ahead of its rebranding as Audi.
How well Red Bull handles the combined effect of these departures remains to be seen. But their rivals believe it may take more than one season for the consequences to become apparent.
“I think the turmoil will have more of the mid-to-longer term impact,” McLaren Racing CEO Zak Brown told media including RaceFans earlier this year. “Adrian Newey: This car was done last year. What they’re racing now was done when everything was fine.
“I think it’s more of ’26 when you’ve got a new engine coming, what’s going on with the driver front, I think that’s where you potentially are going to see the lack of stability that appears to be there, maybe come through a little bit.”
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Brown, speaking when Red Bull had won seven of the first 11 rounds this year, added: “Winning holds things together and if that becomes more of a challenge for them, I think that’s where you might see some more fractures in various relationships.”
Until his breakthrough championship triumph in 2021, Verstappen and Red Bull looked a force to be reckoned with: Tactically sharp, invariably poised to snatch a win when their rivals slipped up. Once they got their hands on a power unit which put them on terms with the front-runners they went toe-to-toe with Mercedes for the championship. And from 2022, as they out-developed their rivals since 2022, they were unstoppable until this year.
Verstappen’s diagnosis of what is behind Red Bull’s slump will be crucial to what he does next. Yes, on paper he is committed to the team until 2028, but this is F1. Last year Mercedes told everyone Lewis Hamilton would drive for them next year and look where he’s going. Not for nothing has Mercedes’ team principal Toto Wolff been courting Verstappen so publicly.
As Verstappen stated in Miami last year, continuity is crucial to sustaining a winning team. But Red Bull already face some degree of internal disruption, and Verstappen may decide that as he is already having to adjust to some internal change, he may as well do so at another team which offers a more realistic chance of success.
Does Verstappen suspect, like Brown, that Red Bull are yet to feel the full impact of the staff departures? Is he convinced Red Bull’s in-house, Ford-assisted power unit project will be immediately more competitive than a Mercedes or the Honda he has won so many races with? These are the questions which will decide where his future lies.
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Ideals (@ideals)
7th October 2024, 8:48
I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see Aston Martin announce Verstappen for 2026 as early as pre-season next year. I think Honda would very much like to continue with Verstappen, and I doubt Newey would hate working with a driver that is so suited to the cars he designs either. We know Lawrence isn’t afraid to pull out the checkbook either.
But whether it’s Mercedes or AM, I’ve no doubt in my mind that the exodus of talent isn’t going to end anytime soon. Whatever happened with Horner at the start of the year has obviously made up a lot of minds, and we all know the problems between Jos and Horner that are no doubt going to lead to Verstappen exiting sooner rather than later.
Optimaximal (@optimaximal)
7th October 2024, 10:01
@ideals
Firstly, Newey designs a car to the rules, not the driver. He’s incredibly uncompromising, which is something he wears on his sleeves. Max is not suited to his cars, he’s adapting to them – that’s a key difference.
Secondly, Newey has stated he has always wanted to work with Lewis and Fernando – the former likely won’t ever happen now, but I’m sure the latter will take priority over trying to recreate the last 5 or so years at Red Bull in a new team.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
7th October 2024, 14:16
I would be very surprised about verstappen going to aston: replacing stroll isn’t gonna happen, even though it’d be the best for performance; perhaps stroll has a remote chance to beat a very old alonso to the championship by the time the car is good enough, if ever? Let’s say they replace alonso with verstappen, that chance has now become 0.
Mayrton
8th October 2024, 11:42
Replacing Alonso with Max is just as logical as replacing Vettel with Alonso. It will happen. 2026 or 2027.
Nick T.
7th October 2024, 17:48
Max at AM is only possible for 2026 if they ditch Lance. Alonso has a guaranteed contract for that season. So, unless people think Adrian is going to convince Lawrence to drop the kid with the sourpuss face, I’m surprised how often this idea is proposed. 2027 is much more probable.
Nulla Pax (@nullapax)
7th October 2024, 18:07
Come on Nick – you know better than that.
There is no such thing as a “guaranteed contract” in F1.
F1 contracts are written on toilet paper in invisible ink ;)
Nick T.
8th October 2024, 1:43
Not with a driver of Alonso’s stature and not with the relationship he has long had with Stroll. I can’t remember a driver of his profile being dumped while in contract. Beyond that, there are two more important factors a) Newey wanted to work w/Alonso and he would have to OK the decision and b) dumping Alonso and not Lance to make room for Max would look so bad I really can’t see it no matter how cynically people like to judge Lawrence.
JeroenJ
8th October 2024, 7:49
Wasn’t Alonso dumped by McLaren in 2008?
MacLeod (@macleod)
9th October 2024, 8:36
@jeroenJ I think Alonso left himself as he had some heating discussion with Ron Dennis and some young driver…..
James Coulee
7th October 2024, 9:03
I believe an important note to make (and that is frequently forgotten in many such articles) is that this Honda engine team is not the same Honda team that developed the Red Bull units. That Honda team was dismantled, its team members spread through the paddock and outside of F1, very few were reincorporated at Honda.
This Honda engine team is a new thing built from scratch, so it may very well be closer to the McLaren Honda than to the Red Bull Honda. No one know…
LosD (@losd)
7th October 2024, 9:52
While McLaren and Alonso poo’d all over Honda for that engine, a big part of its problems was the requirements from McLaren, if I remember correctly; They wanted a huge engine in a tiny package and somehow expected that to just magically be possible without compromises and reliability issues.
anon
7th October 2024, 11:12
@losd I would suggest that there were probably faults on both sides of the project that caused those problems in the initial years.
In the initial stages, the packaging demands from McLaren were quite onerous and there are claims that Ron Dennis asked Honda to enter a year earlier than Honda had originally planned for. On the opposite side, some in Honda’s senior management seem to have underestimated the technical challenges involved in developing the new engines, resulting in unrealistic programmes and potentially not quite enough resources being committed at the start of the project. Both sides seem to have gone into the project with unrealistic expectations, resulting in that compromised design at the end.
Nick T.
7th October 2024, 17:51
@anon, that’s a much more realistic assessment of what happened. The packaging requirements combined with a Honda PU team that was stubborn about admitting it needed help from engineers who had experience with the new PU generation.
Optimaximal (@optimaximal)
7th October 2024, 10:03
That’s not entirely true – whilst the Honda PU team were disbanded on paper, they’re still building and running the engine for Red Bull’s teams.
PeteB (@peteb)
7th October 2024, 10:54
I don’t think any of this matters in reality. It’ll all be down to what sort of car Red Bull can offer Max. The entire team could change but if he’s still fighting for titles, he’ll be happy.
Even when he was winning, he was talking about how long he’d stay in F1 and how he wanted to do things outside of the series. If Red Bull can’t offer him a car to allow him to fight for Championships, I think he’ll join another series when his contract expires. I can’t see him driving for anyone else in F1.
Nick T.
8th October 2024, 1:45
Of course it doesn’t matter as long as he has a car that compete for titles, but the implication of all of this is that he won’t and he knows that.
Mayrton
7th October 2024, 12:20
Verstappen would be wise to continue at RedBull in 2025 and then take a year off in 2026 so he can win LeMans. Meanwhile it will be clear which team will have gotten the 2026 reg change right and he could give them a call somewhere mid 2026 to drive for this team in 2027.
Johns
7th October 2024, 12:36
Did Jos Verstaphen meddling in his son’s career destroy Red Bull?
slowmo (@slowmo)
7th October 2024, 12:55
No I’d say weak leadership pandering to Jos Verstappen’s demands harmed Red Bull. Ultimately the biggest harm to them seems to have been the rise of Horner to a place of overall power over everyone since Mateschitz death. You could argue over the semantics of whether that’s Horner’s fault or is it perhaps just a case that a fine balance of power that previously was held in check was blown away by the death of the owner.
Anyway, phrases like Red Bull being destroyed seem a little overblown, they’re still within the top 3 cars on pace, are fighting for wins and are still favourites to win the WDC. We’re rapidly approaching new rules too which could throw everything into a disarray again anyway.
Robbie1
7th October 2024, 19:29
@slowmo
“No I’d say weak leadership pandering to Jos Verstappen’s demands harmed Red Bull.”
Please enlighten us with the list of demands from Jos that RB pandered to.
And don’t be shy to back this up with factual information that can be verified.
MacLeod (@macleod)
7th October 2024, 13:57
Jos Verstappen was barred from the garage so couldn’t influence much there. That why you don’t see Jos much as he can visit only as visitor VIP but visitor.
Nick T.
7th October 2024, 17:53
That didn’t prevent him from launching a power-play w/Helmut that caused Newey to peace out. But I agree that the team being overly accommodating toward Max has not helped their cause either.
Robbie1
7th October 2024, 19:36
@Nick T
“That didn’t prevent him from launching a power-play w/Helmut that caused Newey to peace out.”
Ah yes, you must know ofcourse, with you being you, right?
Back it up with actual facts.
(Pretty sure the general consensus is Newey peacing out because Horner banged his personal assistant, but hey, what does general consensus mean nowadays.)
Nick T.
8th October 2024, 1:48
Oh, IDK, Jos publicly calling for Horner to leave seems like pretty obvious evidence. That and IDK, the highly convenient leaking of internal documents on the case to create a storm. You’re pretty sharp, huh?
MacLeod (@macleod)
9th October 2024, 8:44
That doesn’t mean Jos has the Power to do anything and it showed Horner is still there. Just some sensation news as Jos commented Media. Jos wants and tried to bring his vision to the higherups but it failed…
If Max wanted Horner to leave I think the owners would listen beter (through his manager) but Max wanted peace ….
Robbie1
7th October 2024, 19:33
@macleod
“Jos Verstappen was barred from the garage”
Oh really? Where did you get that information from?
Pretty sure I not so long read an article on motorsportmagazine.com from Mr. Hughes where he stated that Jos never wielded any influence (apart from a quote here and there) in the team since Max went to RBR but I guess you’re better informed.
MacLeod (@macleod)
9th October 2024, 8:50
@robbie1 Not sure what you mean with your second part of your comment because that is what I meant to say Jos doesn’t wield any influence except comments.
And I think Motorsport isn’t the only information source about Jos influence as the Torro Rosso problems with Sainz management that Jos would be barred from RBR garage to prevent the same problems is well known.
Tristan
7th October 2024, 23:26
Jos is getting the blame? Really?
If it was all rubbish and made up and didn’t happen at all, Horner would be suing someone for defamation. So something happened and all of the reactions to it were as they were. Regardless of whether anything has been proven as to whether Red Bull were correct legally.
Blaming Jos, somehow, for people leaving Red Bull is wrong, I think… In it’s entirety. People don’t leave a team because a drivers Dad is unhappy, that just doesn’t make any sense.
Nick T.
8th October 2024, 5:45
You’re missing the subject completely. Literally one is saying his affair didn’t happen. The issue is how all those documents got leaked and why Jos, who we know isn’t a women’s rights advocate, was pushing the story and putting himself – and by extension Max – in the spotlight and supercharging media attention further. It’s unlikely Newey leaves if Jos and Helmut don’t turn the Horner affair into a media blizzard and go full court internal political war on Horner.
Tristan
8th October 2024, 7:02
It’s unlikely Newey leaves if whatever it is that happened didn’t happen in the first place. Is my point.
pcxmac (@pcxmac)
8th October 2024, 19:51
No, Jos was trying to take advantage of the politics of F1, where Toto and Liberty … and maybe perhaps Porsche were trying to unseat Christian Horner. It didn’t work, but for what ever reason, the dead horse continues to keep being reanimated.
Sure the media will beat on it’s bloated belly for at least the rest of the season, but nobody is talking about THE REAL reasons why some of the key people are stepping away from RBR.
Jos has no business near the RBR garage, hes been party to toxic and destructive behaviors which are ruining his son’s bargaining position. Hes allowing himself to be used by Merc/Liberty to try and snuff out any real sort of competition. Same reason why Liberty probably won’t let in Cadillac/Andretti. Because these people invested a lot of money in to a system of mediocrity which they can control. And they can only control privileged and untalented hacks, because these people know they don’t deserve or have not earned their position, and are very easy to bend/break to their will.
Moi
7th October 2024, 15:23
Well, Toto said he would no longer flirt with Max, so I suspect he has already reached an agreement with him.
My guess is that if Mercedes looks to be a more competitive car than Red Bull next year, Russel will not be renewed and Max will take the seat. If not, he will remain at RB.
Nick T.
7th October 2024, 17:58
It has got to be almost solely down to Mercedes and AM as to where Max will go currently. Since Newey won’t be installed until March, I think Max will wait until mid-season to see how the two teams are progressing and if AM is simply close to Merc he’ll lean toward them.
Gerrit
7th October 2024, 16:21
The biggest problem with building a strong team like Red Bull is that it’s very strength becomes the biggest weakness. In a strong team there is no great desire, or need felt, in long term succession planning or people development. After all you have Adrain Newey, so why train or develop a replacement?
But; as sure as eggs are eggs, people are going to leave or be enticed away. A team must at all times be developing back up team members or have an active recruitment policy to stay strong.
In football parlance, Red Bull are like Manchester United. Never developed a management structure or player recruitment policy, after the great Scot retired, to encompass change. Other teams stay on top by always recruiting and developing managers or players that complement the team. The likes of Barcelona, Real Madrid, Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal, Bayern Munich, etc. are in constant flux bringing in new players to keep incumbents on their toes.
Maybe Horner is a very good manager in regards keeping the flow of people (except drivers it would seem) coming through the organisation. He has to push the old ones out to keep fresh talent coming through. Sometimes that works in a drip feed manner, sometimes it comes (in this instant at Red Bull) as a tidal wave.
The secret is recruitment and development but more importantly, maintaining a high degree of enthusiasm and commitment in the staff you want to keep for now. Not an easy balance compounded by a fractured management structure where Horner does not seem to be in charge of all facets of the team.
Yes Verstappen may well leave Red Bull, but there sure are able replacements to recruit. No one team member is irreplaceable, not even Horner or Verstappen.
Tristan
7th October 2024, 23:34
I don’t see where Verstappen goes at the moment really… And he hasn’t shied away from saying he wants to try other forms of motorsport. I’d be surprised if he leaves Red Bull before ’26, then he makes his next choice I guess for either before or after ’28.
If Ferrari, Merc or even McLaren disrupt their new lineups within the next 2 years I’ll be shocked.
Carl white
8th October 2024, 1:29
Max’s oversteer driving balance gives him race pace. Hence obliterates his team mates. Never seen a driver handle a loose rear like max. Unlike Alonso/Hamilton who like the security of a hint of understeer. He’ll button twice, rosberg lol and Russell have dropped Hamilton in same machinery.
pcxmac (@pcxmac)
8th October 2024, 19:54
If Max won’t play ball, he will probably be run out of the sport like Casey Stoner @ Honda/MotoGP, just 1 year prior to the golden child stepping in to his position.
pcxmac (@pcxmac)
8th October 2024, 19:55
All you have to do is listen to what the media is amplifying, and it’s pretty clear how the ‘board’ is being constructed.
Johns
8th October 2024, 4:26
Verstappens ability to make a bad car better will be highly desireable in 2026. You know the first gneration of these cars will have some weird quirks.