Baku 2023 again? Verstappen faces threat from Russell, not Norris, in sprint race

The word ‘irony’ is among the most misused and misunderstood in the English language, yet Mercedes’ trackside engineering director Andrew Shovlin had a rare opportunity to apply it accurately after the end of sprint qualifying in Austin when the team were beaten to pole by Max Verstappen

On the face of it, his driver Lewis Hamilton appeared to have squandered another great opportunity to set himself up for success for race when he fell to seventh on the grid at the end of SQ3 after making his single run in the session early. But that did not tell the full story.

Until Hamilton caught a flashing yellow light on the LED marshal board at the end of the back straight (triggered by Franco Colapinto’s turn 12 spin) he was almost three tenths of a second quicker than Verstappen subsequent effort. Hamilton lifted off early to respect the command – just as it turned green once more. Presuming he had kept things clean in the final sector, Hamilton would almost certainly have been on pole for today’s sprint race.

“We had opted to go on the early side to avoid any interruptions with yellows on a busy track at the end of the session,” Shovlin later explained. “Unfortunately, and ironically, Lewis caught a yellow flag following a spin for the Williams of Colapinto at turn 12. That put paid to his challenge for the front-row and he will line up P7.”

Hamilton’s team mate George Russell also missed out on the top spot, but he arguably handed pole to Verstappen at the first corner of his final lap, losing almost two tenths to the Red Bull on the run down the hill towards the esses that he had to fight to make up over the rest of the lap. Verstappen crossed the line just 0.012s faster.

Verstappen duly took his third consecutive sprint race pole and third from the four sprint rounds held thus far. However, even he had to admit that he was likely to face strong competition in the sprint race.

“Looking at the lap, a few little balance issues still, but to be ahead of the others is a positive,” he said. “I think also, when you look, Lewis had a little mistake in 12, otherwise he would’ve been up there as well.

“I’m happy, but I’m also aware there’s a lot of fast cars around me. But it’s definitely a positive return.”

Verstappen has won all three sprint races held so far in 2024. But this may be the most challenging one to win of all.

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Weather

There are few concerns about weather on Saturday afternoon for the sprint race, both for drivers and the fans. Conditions will be dry with almost zero risk of rain with temperatures similar to Friday, while the expected cloud cover will hopefully prevent many fans getting sun burnt before the most important day of the weekend tomorrow.

Wind may be a factor with westerly gusts set to provide a cross wind through the esses and a tailwind down the back straight, but wind speeds are not set to be as high as they were on Friday.

Start

Last year, Charles Leclerc found out just how aggressive Verstappen could be off the start at COTA when he was squeezed to the inside by the world champion as the pair left the grid in the sprint race. Starting from second, Russell should expect similar treatment from the world champion. These two have previous as well – Verstappen was angered by their clash in the Baku sprint race last year.

But how hard can Verstappen afford to fight Russell? Lando Norris has taken points off him for the last four races in a row, starts close behind in fourth, and Verstappen will be especially anxious not to get caught up in an unncessary fight which brings the McLaren into play.

The tight left-hander at turn one at the top of the hill is often a focal point of action. Not just because it is the first braking point of the race, naturally, but because drivers were fighting for grip around the newly repaved corner throughout Friday. Russell, Pierre Gasly and Alexander Albon all suffered spins there while and several others were caught out by unexpected grip levels. Twenty cars, many of them off the racing line, charging into a wide-open, low grip corner could result in more chaos than usual.

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Strategy

As ever, teams have free choice for what compounds to run in the race. Last year, all bar one of the 20 drivers picked mediums for the sprint race, with only Carlos Sainz Jnr gambling on softs.

The Ferrari driver gained two places on the opening lap with his softer tyres, but then faded as the race progressed to be passed by Norris and Sergio Perez to finish where he had started in sixth. Pirelli expect that mediums are likely to be near-universal in their use today.

Overtaking

Today’s sprint race will be a revealing test of how much the shortened DRS zone along the back straight will affect overtaking. Although turn 12 has often been the most popular passing point in Austin, there are also plenty of moves made into the first corner, into turn 11 leading onto the back straight and even into turn 15, the last corner in the ‘stadium’ section leading into the high-speed, triple-apex sequence around the stadium.

Although passing into turn 11 may seem like bad tactics given there is a long DRS straight immediately after it, the fact the detection zone comes before the braking zone actually encourages drivers to try and make a lunge into the left hander. Any driver who can get through at turn 11 will then get the benefit of DRS along the straight even if they are already ahead, allowing them to win any drag race down to turn 12.

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Safety Cars

In the three sprint races held so far in 2024, there has been just one Safety Car period – a first corner clash at Miami which took out Norris and Lance Stroll. Since then, drivers have been very well behaved with not a single Safety Car period in any grand prix since the Canadian Grand Prix back in June.

Last year there was just a single retirement from the sprint race at Austin when Stroll pulled out of the race with a handful of laps remaining with a braking problem. If the field navigates the first corner and lap without any trouble, it is overwhelmingly likely the race will run green to the chequered flag.

One to watch

The obvious candidate to look out for in today’s sprint race is the returning Liam Lawson. The RB driver has been called up by Red Bull to replace Daniel Ricciardo and will take his first Formula 1 start in over a year today.

Lawson was disappointed not to follow team mate Yuki Tsunoda through to the final phase of sprint qualifying after losing his only timed lap in SQ2 for exceeding track limits. Starting from 15th, he gets the privilege of a rare warm-up race ahead of his first grand prix of the year tomorrow.

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Over to you

Can Verstappen make it four sprint wins out of four, or will Russell or another of Red Bull’s rivals prove too much for the world champion to keep at bay? Have your say in the comments below.

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