Ferrari poised to disrupt Norris-Verstappen title fight in Austin “slugfest”

So much for Mercedes’ prospects of fighting for a fourth victory of the season today.

After Lewis Hamilton and George Russell had arguably both missed out on beating Max Verstappen to take pole in Friday’s sprint qualifying session for different reasons, everything fell apart for them on Saturday.

First, Russell fell backwards in the sprint race while Hamilton struggled with a car problem which developed on the formation lap. Then any hope of bouncing back for when it mattered most in the grand prix appeared to be lost when Hamilton crashed out – figuratively – in Q1 before Russell crashed out – literally – at the end of Q3.

As such, it’s easy to assume that the intrigue for the fight for victory will be centred around the two drivers on the front row – Lando Norris and Max Verstappen, the two drivers who are at the top of the championship standings and have the most victories of any this season. However, there’s plenty of reason to think that Ferrari will be joining the party on Sunday.

One of Verstappen’s criticisms of sprint races is how they take away a lot of the mystery and intrigue ahead of a grand prix. As relatively eventful as Saturday’s sprint was, it certainly appeared to do just that.

The Red Bull driver had enough pace to stay out of reach of Norris who faded over the 19 laps with his tyres wearing. But once the Ferrari pair had cleared Russell and assumed third and fourth, Carlos Sainz Jnr and Charles Leclerc were both able to post lap times equal to and quicker than the two leaders ahead until catching Norris on the final lap.

“I’m probably most concerned about Ferrari’s race pace,” admitted McLaren Racing CEO Zak Brown. “Just based on the sprint race – the tyres seemed to get stronger in the race. I think it’s going to be a bit of a slugfest.”

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Having beaten his team mate for the second session of the day on Saturday, third-placed Sainz was clearly brimming with confidence as he looked forward to the grand prix.

“I think for sure we’re going into tomorrow with the target of winning the race,” Sainz said. “But at the same time, we are lowering expectations because we know that our rivals must have learned a lot from the sprint and will put together a better package. That means we probably won’t have so much of an advantage.”

After Norris took dominant victories in both Zandvoort and the previous round in Singapore, the driver who has been the one to beat over recent months knows he’s going to have a much more challenging afternoon today.

“It’s going to be a tough race, he accepted. “Ferrari were very quick in the sprint race with the degradation. I always said that Max is Max and they’re going to be fast. So I’m excited. I think it’s going to be a good battle and probably a good one to watch.”

Weather

It’s going to be another dry day to finish the weekend in Austin with no threat of rain to provide any surprises to proceedings. But Sunday is likely to prove the warmest day of the three, with clear skies over the circuit throughout the race.

That could have an impact on track temperatures – especially around the noticeably darker repaved sections of the circuit. Managing tyre temperatures will be critical to maintaining tyre life, something that will prove challenging if there is a sustained battle at the front of the field.

Start

Despite taking pole position, the statistics do not bode well for Norris’s prospects of keeping the lead at the start. Not just because he has one managed to convert pole into the lead on lap one just once in his F1 career – the last round in Singapore – but because this is the circuit where the pole winner has the lowest conversion rate on the calendar.

Over all 13 race starts at COTA – 11 grands prix and two sprint races, the driver on pole has led the first lap of the race 53.85% of the time. On six occasions, the second-placed driver has been the one to assume the lead of the race.

Last year, Norris managed to beat pole winner Charles Leclerc into the first corner to lead the early laps of the race. But with Verstappen behind him on the grid and two hungry Ferraris further back, Norris will have a tough challenge to hold onto his lead off the line.

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Strategy

After several races where one-stop strategies have ruled the day, we could finally see some variety in Austin.

The sprint race showed that even the mediums are not durable enough to stretch to a one-stop to make it worth it, while the relatively short pit stop delta time means that making a second stop is more viable than many more recent circuits. Last year, the majority of the field opted for some combination of two stints on mediums and a single on hard tyres, with Pirelli’s Mario Isola expecting the same again today.

“We expect that everyone will try and start the race on the mediums,” Isola said.

“The quickest strategy, based on a preliminary analysis, is a first stint on the mediums, with a pit stop between laps 16 and 22 to switch to the hards, with a second stop between laps 35 and 41 to finish back on the mediums.”

Overtaking

As yesterday’s sprint race showed, there are plenty of opportunities to overtake around the lap at the Circuit of the Americas. But even if a move is made at the end of the straight into turn 12, drivers have to immediately defend to avoid being repassed into turn 13 or even into the slow left hander at turn 15, which saw plenty of action on Saturday.

Over the 11 grands prix held at COTA so far, there has been an average of 36.6 on-track overtakes over the course of the race. The 2022 race set a new record for the track, with 59 passes for position.

The reduced DRS zone along the back straight on the run to turn 12 also seems not to have made the prospects of overtaking too difficult in the sprint race. But with more tyre management necessary in the grand prix, we may see less action on Sunday than Saturday.

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Safety Cars

Signs continue to point to today’s race being another where there is unlikely to be a Safety Car intervention. Five of the 11 grands prix at COTA have run without any Safety Cars or Virtual Safety Cars, including last year’s race.

Should there be a late Safety Car for any reason, expect many drivers to want to pit for fresher tyres for the restart. Even McLaren were asking Norris for his thoughts about whether it would be worth pitting if there was a late Safety Car in Saturday’s sprint race, reflecting how advantageous fresh rubber can be and how difficult it will be to defend from a car with more inherent pace.

One to watch

Although all the attention will naturally be at the front, there is plenty of intrigue in the battle for the final points places.

Kevin Magnussen has been on it so far this weekend and is spearheading Haas’ hopes from ninth on the grid after taking a strong seventh place finish in the sprint race. Having moved his team ahead of RB with his result, Magnussen has a golden opportunity to consolidate that position by adding more points to that tally today.

Meanwhile, Pierre Gasly could also turn a terrible season for Alpine into a better one by scoring points from his very promising seventh on the grid. Eighth place would move his team ahead of Williams in the constructors’ championship, as both Williams drivers start well down the order and look unlikely to trouble the top ten today.

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Over to you

Will Norris and Verstappen be battling it out for victory between each other, or will Ferrari be able to insert themselves in the fight for the win? Share your views on the United States Grand Prix in the comments.

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