Norris can afford no more stumbles as Brazilian GP offers a huge opportunity

McLaren’s stunning turn of pace in qualifying for today’s sprint race, and Max Verstappen’s looming grid penalty for tomorrow’s main event, hand Lando Norris a precious opportunity to turn the screw on his rival in the championship fight.

Over the last three rounds Norris hasn’t scored at a high enough rate to make the inroads he needs into Verstappen’s championship advantage. But circumstances have given him the chance to change that at Interlagos.

Norris dominated proceedings in Singapore, but losing the bonus point for fastest lap to Daniel Ricciardo was a significant moment in the championship fight. It meant Norris was no longer guaranteed the title if he won each time of asking and Verstappen finished immediately behind him.

That has become a less likely prospect anyway as Ferrari have gained strength since the summer break, winning three of the last five grands prix. This has complicated matters for Norris, and allowed Verstappen to deploy belligerent defensive tactics in the last two races to minimise his rival’s points-scoring.

Mexico was not as great a success for Norris some claimed it was, and it exemplified why Verstappen is striving above all else to keep his rival away from 25-pointers. Norris took 10 points off his rival by finishing second to Verstappen’s sixth, exactly the same as if he’d won and the Red Bull driver placed third.

But even if Norris were to sweep the remaining six races (sprint races included) and Verstappen finished third in all of them, the McLaren driver would fall shy of the title by three points. As Singapore showed, Norris can’t realistically expect to make up that shortfall through the fastest lap bonus.

This weekend offers an opportunity to change that. McLaren flew on Friday, Norris leading SQ1 by almost nine-tenths of a second over any other car, showing the MCL38 is a potent force on the medium tyre compound. The arrival of their new, more efficient rear wing could hardly have been better timed.

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Red Bull must have been aghast at what they discovered after tackling the resurfaced Interlagos for the first time yesterday. Grippy but bumpy, it is the opposite of what the RB20 thrives on.

Norris appeared to be romping to pole position until he slipped up on his final run in SQ3. Team mate Oscar Piastri, who has seldom been the buffer between the two contenders Norris would like him to be this year, pinched pole off him by less than three-hundredths of a second.

All is far from lost for Norris, however, and McLaren can still control proceedings in the sprint race after locking out the front row of the grid. Providing, of course, he gets off the line well enough: If his start isn’t perfect he can expect an RB20 on his inside seconds later.

But the bigger opportunity awaits in the grand prix. Verstappen’s grid penalty means he will likely start no higher than sixth. The championship leader’s tactic in recent races has been to qualify ahead of Norris and thwart his progress at every turn, but unless the McLaren suffers another Baku-style misfortune, the pair could have several cars between them on the grand prix grid.

Two places between them on the sprint race grid, potentially five in the grand prix. Norris might even be entertaining the thought of getting through a grand prix weekend without being muscled into a run-off area. Verstappen must be hoping the forecasts of rain, which presently look stronger for tomorrow than today, materialise.

On a dry track, McLaren’s pace so far this weekend indicates a pair of wins are up for grabs. If Red Bull don’t have the pace for Verstappen to overhaul the Ferraris on Sunday, Norris could be looking at a double-digit gain this weekend.

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He hasn’t managed that all season, with the exception of Verstappen’s retirement in Australia. For Norris to still retain a realistic hope of winning the championship as F1 heads into its final trio of race weekends, he needs nothing less than that this weekend.

After throwing pole position away with his mistake yesterday, Norris made it clear he is sick of hearing about the championship situation. “I hate these questions so much,” he said. But if he fails to capitalise on the opportunity before him this weekend, he is unlikely to prefer being asked how he let a chance to pull himself decisively into contention pass him by.

• How will this weekend’s race affect the title fight? Work out all the possibilities on RaceFans’ F1 Championship Calculator

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