Max Verstappen’s eighth win of the season last weekend means it is realistically a question of when, not if, he will clinch this year’s drivers’ championship title.
The only driver who can beat Verstappen to the championship this year is Lando Norris. Charles Leclerc could theoretically tie the Red Bull driver on 393 points, but only if he takes a maximum score from all the remaining races (three grands prix, three fastest lap bonus points plus a sprint race win) and the championship leader fails to score, and even then Verstappen would win the championship on count-back of grand prix victories.Verstappen has a 62-point lead over Norris in the championship. He needs to be at least 60 points ahead after the next race to win the title. All the different ways he can achieve that are explained below.
The F1 points system is a complicated beast. There are four different scoring systems available depending on how much of a race is completed, plus a bonus point for fastest lap which is only available to the top 10 finishers (this rule will be dropped next year). Use RaceFans’ F1 Championship Points Calculator to crunch the numbers however the dice fall in Las Vegas:
Full points race
There are three clear circumstances under which Verstappen will clinch the championship in Las Vegas, assuming at least 75% of the race distance is covered and full points are awarded. Verstappen will secure the title if any of these conditions are met:
- He wins the race
- He finishes ahead of Norris
- Norris finishes lower than ninth or ninth without the fastest lap
There are also a handful of cases in which Verstappen could finish behind Norris and win the title, which depend on which one of them sets the fastest lap.
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A second place finish for Verstappen will guarantee him the title only if Norris fails to win. The fastest lap point is irrelevant in this case.
The situation is similar if Verstappen finishes fourth. In that case first or second for Norris will keep the championship alive, but if he’s third and Verstappen takes the fastest lap, the Red Bull driver can celebrate the title two rounds early.
From fourth to ninth places, each position is separated by two points. Therefore if Verstappen finishes fifth, Norris must either finish one place ahead of him and set the fastest lap or finish two places ahead of him to keep the championship alive. The same pattern holds if Verstappen finishes sixth, seventh, eighth or ninth.
If Verstappen is the last driver home in the points and takes the bonus point, Norris needs to finish at least eighth to stay in the hunt. If Verstappen comes 10th without the fastest lap, ninth will be sufficient for Norris.
Finally, if Verstappen fails to score, Norris must finish at least eighth, or ninth with the fastest lap.
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Reduced points races
If the race doesn’t go the full distance, Verstappen’s chances of winning the title improves. For example, in a 25-50% distance race, Norris must finish at least seventh to have a chance of keeping the title alive; in a sub-25% distance race that becomes third.
Beyond that, the other cases above remain true. A win for Verstappen secures him the title and finishing ahead of Norris secures him the title.
To check how Verstappen can leave Las Vegas with the 60 points he needs under these scenarios, select the appropriate points system in the Points Calculator as follows:
- GP75: 50-75% of race distance (25-38 laps)
- GP50: 25-50% of race distance (13-24 laps)
- GP25: two laps to 25% of race distance (2-12 laps)
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Formula 1
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Jere (@jerejj)
11th November 2024, 8:39
While considering all possible scenarios is valid itself, the minimum requirement of a 60-point lead is essentially the most important part, given the countback advantage that will last until the season’s end since he’s guaranteed to finish the season with the highest race victory amount.
Effectively a 0-score race via either DNF, DNS, withdrawal, or DSQ is the only way the situation could still change within the last two rounds.
Without the above scenarios, even if the points gap ended up below 60, but remained above 52, the championship would only be more likely to be clinched in the Qatar sprint like last season with 52 the maximum available for a single driver after that session.
notagrumpyfan
11th November 2024, 10:53
That’s not correct at all! Many other ways, and the article explains quite well the various scenarios.
PS the only scenario not touched upon is disqualification for the full season. Who knows more swearing could get him there.
In that case the WDC is open again to a few drivers.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
11th November 2024, 23:35
Ahah, that would be soooooooooo bad PR for f1 to disqualify a driver for minor infractions like that, who otherwise would clearly win the championship!
Sham (@sham)
11th November 2024, 8:47
It’s a shame in some ways that the cars are so reliable nowadays. It has taken a little of the suspense away – I know that luck is not a way to decide a championship, but it has it’s influence in many other ways, and I used to quite like the wondering if this highly engineered and highly stressed machine would make it to the end
baasbas
11th November 2024, 9:18
@sham
I don’t want to go back to that period. I randomly clicked to a race result of the 90s. Hungary ’93. Just 3 cars on the lead lap, but p3 and p2 were very close to being lapped. Then 4 cars +1 lap, 2 cars +2 laps, 1 +4, 1+5 and finally 1 +7. And 13 DNF, 7 of those technical.
Asd
11th November 2024, 18:07
You’re confusing realiability with competetiveness. Come on man!
The 90’s were extremely UNCOMPETETIVE. We don’t want that. But we would love a technical failure once in a while.
Keith Collantine (@keithcollantine)
11th November 2024, 9:30
@sham I suppose the other way to look at that is if Verstappen’s car hadn’t let developed a problem in Australia he could be 90 points up right now and the championship would already be over.
Sham (@sham)
11th November 2024, 11:20
@keithcollantine
This is true, but I do slightly miss the uncertainty, even if a race was being dominated there was always a chance that things would change as the cars were fragile and highly strung. You always get the feeling that the cars and drivers have more to give these days and for me that’s a bit of a shame. They always look ‘lazy’, like they could be pushed harder. Should a championship be decided on unreliability? No, but it did add spice and I’m not sure if the cars being under stressed so the engines can last so long is a better way.
Should F1 be an endurance event covering several weekends per engine and gearbox? I’m not so sure, F1 is about car and driver – I’d love to see both being pushed to their limits more often.
Grapmg
11th November 2024, 15:47
You mean uncertainty’s like red flag and Saftey Car as in 2021?
Sham (@sham)
11th November 2024, 16:59
Uncertainty is one thing – the FIA race director blatantly ignoring the rules is quite another.
Safety can add uncertainty, though, yes.
Grapmg
11th November 2024, 18:19
Just teasing a bit on 2021.
I agree that they should push the limit more instead of the current rules that limits the engine and gearbox parts used. For the WCC these uncertainty s should count. But not for the WDC as the driver is not in control of these DNFs. I liked the pre 1990 rules where only your best 11 results counted for the WDC and eliminated the ‘unlucky” DNFs caused by failure or incidents.
Coventry Climax
11th November 2024, 10:00
Given the way both Norris and McLaren have hurled away their plenty opportunities, I’d say realistically, there is about zero chance Norris still manages to win this, whatever the statistics.
It will be more interesting to see the behaviour of MBS when Verstappen wins the title.
MBS will most likely be there, right in front of the cameras, ‘obliged’ by his position to show his ‘magnanimous’ presence and ego, while he might actually not at all want to be seen together with a person who so clearly has different moral standards regarding -at minimum- swearing in public, but more specifically clearly holds entirely different views as to what racing and its rules should actually be, and where the FiA is heading with them.
It will probably be awkward for the both of them if he is there, and it will likely show as well.
But then, the views on wanting to be associated with a criminal seem to have changed a lot recently.
Ludewig
11th November 2024, 10:28
I’m sure that he likes the cameras a lot more than he dislikes Max.
Moi
11th November 2024, 11:02
How is MBS a criminal exactly?
Jonathan Parkin
11th November 2024, 17:29
I think he’s referring to Donald not MBS
Coventry Climax
12th November 2024, 15:26
I knew there would be replies like these. You could also argue I called Verstappen the criminal, for breaking the FiA code of conduct. In reality, I meant neither, and I am quite sure you already knew that.
An Sionnach
11th November 2024, 10:22
Perhaps in a way, a revived championship challenge is in Max’s hands. After throwing away positions in Mexico and in the Interlagos sprint, he was measured in the wet race. If the remaining races see Red Bull as the third fastest car, he should be content with fifth place finishes. It won’t make sense to go for any 50/50 moves against anyone, especially not Sainz or Russell. Leclerc seems to have better control in close quarters, but he owes Max one back for the squeeze he got last year in Las Vegas. I’m not saying that Charles should be petty; it’s important that all of his competitors know he means business for 2025 and beyond.
DB-C90 (@dbradock)
11th November 2024, 10:37
Call me cynical, but I’d have thought that a management company (First letter L) has probably already arranged for Max to develop a mysterious mechanical issue that will make him slow down during the race so that they can stretch the season result out.
Wouldn’t happen would it? After all it’s a sport not “entertainment”.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
11th November 2024, 23:41
Sometimes you get suspicious stuff like that, there’s been some examples this season and in 2021, but sometimes you also get stuff that ruins an interesting championship fight, for example schumacher’s engine in japan 2006, without which he’d have been 2 points ahead going into the last race, a thrilling ending of the championship.
Maybe things really happened at random back then, but now liberty media is actually trying to engineer interesting championship battles.
Mr A
11th November 2024, 11:16
1) push your rivals off the road so that they can neither overtake you nor defend their position without incurring a penalty or damaging their car.
2) fit an illegal device to your car, use it in the first few races to build a massive lead in the WDC before you’re rumbled and it’s banned.
3) deny point 2, then accuse rivals of putting water in their tyres to deflect attention away from yourself while you take a lucky win in the wet and everyone thinks you’re Senna.
baasbas
11th November 2024, 11:38
@Mr A:
Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But you’re not entitled to your own facts.
I advise you to tone down the teeth grinding, it will end up quite a bill at the dentist I expect
Craig
11th November 2024, 12:25
It’s close to the truth, though.
Osnola
12th November 2024, 14:38
What part?
1 is an opinion
2 is debuncked
3 is under investigation
Jojo
11th November 2024, 14:37
On point 1, if you’re talking about Mexico, then Norris did overtake and Verstappen did get a penalty, rightly so. If you are talking about Austin, then Verstappen was ahead at the apex and wasn’t required to leave the space. Norris was rightly penalised for over taking off the circuit.
On point 2, I’m not sure what illegal device you think Red Bull used? There was never any evidence of wrong doing.
On point 3, why is it any worse for Red Bull to accuse rivals of potentially breaking rules than it is for McLaren to do the same?
In both cases the FIA have been unable to prove if rules were previously broken but have acted to prevent future infringements by introducing extra checks.
Lucky win? You sound bitter :(
When a driver overtakes 6 cars on the opening lap, by taking a different line than others were prepared to, when he is the only one who kept managing to overtake into turn 1, where other drivers were struggling to overtake at all with no DRS, when he made the right calls during the race where his rivals didn’t it’s not luck. Other drivers past and present were also complimentary of such a great drive.
Coventry Climax
12th November 2024, 15:35
I think you gave us a fairly decent idea on what the ‘A’ in Mr A stands for.
JOA20
11th November 2024, 12:38
I don’t see Max clinching the title in Las Vegas bar exceptional circumstances. Qatar sounds more likely, though I doubt Norris will win in Nevada, Ferrari seems to have a better chance there than in Lusail. WDC is pretty much settled, it sounds more likely that Leclerc will overtake Norris instead.
The WCC, on the other hand, might see some upsets. McLaren has 36 points over Ferrari, but they’re tied on race wins and Las Vegas may be better suited to the red cars. Qatar is more likely to be a papaya parade, whereas Abu Dhabi sort of falls in the middle, I think?
F1statsfan (@f1statsfan)
11th November 2024, 15:32
Well I think McLaren is due a mechanical DNF so let it be Lando in Las Vegas – have Leclerc win the race.
That way Max is champion and Lando/Leclerc can fight it out for 2nd place over the last 2 race weekends.
An Sionnach
11th November 2024, 17:25
Interesting thought. Thinking about the season we’ve had, it’s been pretty good. I would like to see Charles in with a chance next season. He could use the remaining races to set the tone for next year. I would care more about Max, Lewis and Lando knowing not to shove him around even if it means risking points this season.
If Max has a mishap Lando and McLaren should seize it this time. Lando let himself down a little when he said the rain men were lucky, but if he can show opportunism and decisiveness just once, then that could be his redemption.
An Sionnach
11th November 2024, 17:46
I suppose this ship has sailed, but I feel would have expected the correct penalty for driving off during a red flag is disqualification. Every driver in Brazil should have been black flagged and no points awarded. That might open the door a little for Lando, and be possibly the correct outcome.
An Sionnach
11th November 2024, 17:49
Of course, the stewards at the event would have to be reprimanded, too, and fines issued to the governing bodies for mismanaging the whole thing!
An Sionnach
11th November 2024, 18:23
This would make it the perfect F1 race. Some great wet weather performances, drama… and then all drivers, the stewards, F1 and FIA are penalised afterwards. This should make everyone happy!
Osnola
12th November 2024, 14:40
Why every driver?
The rows around verstappen only drove off after a signal from racecontrol.
They knew the rules.
BenHur
12th November 2024, 1:44
Or how about Carlos winning all three races? That should give Fezza pause.
BenHur
12th November 2024, 1:47
And the sprint race FGM
Tristan
11th November 2024, 19:57
So fair chance it will still be alive as they head into the women-bashing-and-jailing for wearing “revealing clothes” terrorist state.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
12th November 2024, 0:10
I would be more interested in the constructor’s championship battle, with only 36 points between mclaren and ferrari (teams that didn’t win that title for 26 and 16 years) and red bull not too far back, just having a single driver able to score good points than worrying about when verstappen will win an already guaranteed title.
Benhur
12th November 2024, 0:12
How could Lando win the WDC? Easily enough. Get rid of all those other peskily objective stewards and leave Johnny alone, the guy can secure all 86 points for Lando plus 0 for Max whatever it takes, plus a forever ban for Max also (and for Fernando as well for good measure). All for the sake of keeping his sporting bets sponsors happy.
How can some fellow who
1) openly criticizes some of the drivers with obvious prejudice
and 2) is openly sponsored by the gambling industry
be a F1 steward is beyond my comprehension
Seriously, Johnny must go.