Verstappen’s demotion to inside of the grid could prove a double blow in Qatar

The Qatar Grand Prix at the Losail International Circuit will almost certainly be the lowest-attended round of the season – but that does not meant those who have bought tickets are any less invested, knowledgeable or passionate as those who have shown up to any of the previous 22 rounds so far this season.

When most of the few thousands who will be there at Losail today went to sleep last night, they did so looking forward to seeing Max Verstappen lead the field away from pole position and George Russell alongside him on the front row.

This morning, however, they would have woken up to find the front row occupants have swapped places.

Despite the drivers’ championship, the primary point of intrigue for any F1 season, being done and dusted, Formula 1 has still managed to court controversy with the latest stewarding scandal involving Max Verstappen. Penalised for driving unnecessarily slowly on his final build up lap in Q3 and getting in the way of Russell’s Mercedes – who was also on a build up lap – Verstappen has lost his first pole position since Austria and must now line up behind Russell rather than in front of him.

Although this seems like a blow to Verstappen’s chances of victory, the world champion is driven as much by the need to spite those he perceives as trying to hold him down as much as he is by victory. And compared to other grid penalties he has overcome in recent years to win, a single place is nothing.

But it would be wrong to assume that it’s all going to be about Verstappen versus Russell for victory. There has been no consistent order at the front of the field over the first two days of the weekend, and newly-inherited pole sitter Russell expects the same today.

“I think it’s going to be a really close fight between all four teams,” Russell said after qualifying. “Ferrari looked on the same pace as Lando [Norris and myself] this morning. So I hope it’s going to be a good one, but the tyres seem pretty resilient. Maybe we’ll see another DRS train, I don’t know.”

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Although the volume of fans watching will be relatively modest, they may well be in for a fascinating evening of racing.

Weather

As has been made abundantly clear this weekend, the oppressive heat and humidity drivers had to endure in last year’s Qatar Grand Prix will not be a concern this evening.

Just like Friday and Saturday, conditions will be similarly mild with ambient temperatures around 20C and only falling as the race progresses.

The only concern will be the high winds with gusts of over 40kph expected at points. Like Saturday, this is expected to mainly come in a south easterly direction, becoming a headwind down the main straight.

McLaren team principal Andrea Stella admitted that as the wind picked up, their car became harder for their drivers to handle. Could that affect McLaren’s hopes for fighting for victory tonight?

Start

Losing pole position not only means Verstappen has lost the advantage of physically starting ahead of Russell, but he has now moved to the right-hand side of the grid too, where drivers found less grip at the start of yesterday’s sprint race.

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That may be more critical than anything, as being on the inside line into turn one leaves drivers vulnerable to cars on the outside as the track switches to the left-hand second turn. As Oscar Piastri showed in the sprint race, being on that inside line into turn two is the strongest position to be in.

“Those inside starting positions were really tricky,” Russell explained before learning he would be starting from pole instead. “I think every driver on the right-hand side made a poor start and that ultimately cost me the chance to fight with Lando.”

Russell has started from pole position in five previous grands prix and held the lead at the start every single time. If Verstappen is going to get by the Mercedes, he might have to wait until after the first lap.

Strategy

Last weekend saw a suspected one-stop race in cold conditions in Las Vegas turn into a two-stopper due to the higher than expected level of graining and tyre degradation.

But after Saturday’s sprint race saw the medium compound hold up reasonably well over the 19 Safety Car-free laps, Pirelli says it is more confident that today’s race will be a one-stop race.

“It’s true that in the sprint race we saw some cars reach the limit in terms of tyre wear, but it did not cause a significant drop in performance,” explained Pirelli’s Mario Isola.

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“Furthermore, the track characteristics with no really heavy braking points, makes overtaking rather complicated, especially if cars find themselves in a DRS train as we saw in the sprint race.”

Starting on the mediums will be a no-brainer for those at the front, with a suspected pit window for hard tyres sitting between laps 16 and 24.

Overtaking

Anyone who has tried the Losail circuit on the official F1 game will likely have realised that while it is an especially fun circuit for Time Trial mode, it does not make for the best venue for racing.

Saturday’s sprint race showed how reliant the track is on its solitary DRS zone along the pit straight, with McLaren using that to their tactical advantage to prevent Russell from being able to get around Piastri.

Once cars do run side-by-side into the first corner, the sequence of corners in the opening sector do allow for sustained racing. But from the exit of turn six up to the final corner, there are no realistic opportunities for a high-percentage pass attempt.

Track position is therefore going to be critical, with teams having to be ready to react to any undercut attempts around the pit window.

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“I think we are fast in the long runs, but it’s very difficult to overtake here,” observed Charles Leclerc, who will start from fifth place. “So I think that we are not going to use that pace that much.”

Safety Cars

Despite three separate Safety Car periods during last year’s sprint race, that now seems like an anomaly. Through the other sprint race and two grands prix held at the circuit in its short history as an F1 venue, there as only been one other Safety Car deployment – when Lewis Hamilton clashed with his team mate into the first corner.

If the field make it through the first lap without incident – something they have been skilled at doing for most of the season, then the prospects of a sudden Safety Car are low. With so much run-off available around the circuit, any car that has to pull off and be recovered can most likely be covered by a Virtual Safety Car.

One to watch

Nico Hulkenberg was a surprise elimination from Q1, failing to follow his team mate Kevin Magnussen who reached the top ten in qualifying.

This seemed a disappointing result given his excellent Friday and sprint race performances, until Haas team principal Ayao Komatsu explained that Hulkenberg had been put into the wrong power unit mode on his final lap in Q1 – a team error rather than the driver.

Hulkenberg therefore starts from 18th on the grid but with demonstrably more pace than pretty much every car he will be around at the start. How much progress he will make in the race will be interesting to follow.

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Over to you

Can George Russell complete a rare back-to-back grand prix victory for 2024, or will Max Verstappen strike back at the stewards to win his second grand prix in three rounds?

Share your views on the Qatar Grand Prix in the comments.

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