In the 24th and final grand prix of the 2024 season, McLaren has an opportunity to do something many fans of theirs have never seen them do before – win the constructors’ championship.
Fittingly, the team they must defeat for that honour is their oldest and fiercest traditional rival: Ferrari.After showing promising pace across the first two days of the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix weekend, Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri secured one of the most important front row lockouts the team has ever taken, right ahead of Carlos Sainz Jnr in third
“I think we’ve both been driving well this weekend and we knew the pressure was on, from ourselves,” Norris said after taking his eighth pole of 2024. “So we’ve both performed well. We’ve both got everything out of the car. But this is a long race, and many things can happen, so we’re definitely not going to get ahead of ourselves.”
Ferrari’s day was bittersweet to say the least. At a track he struggled severely last year, Sainz showed that Ferrari were by no means far off McLaren for performance by being the closest to them in qualifying two tenths away from Norris’s pole. But not only was team mate Charles Leclerc hit by a 10-place grid penalty on Friday, a brutal Q2 elimination after exceeding track limits means that Ferrari’s second car will start down in 19th.
“Then we arrived in FP1 and Charles’ battery died before running and the grid penalty obviously was a huge shock, a huge blow. On top of that, you get the Q2 situation for Charles. It just makes things obviously a lot more difficult.
But in his final race for Ferrari, Sainz is in no way going to give up the fight. If Ferrari are to lose this title, Sainz is determined to push both McLarens to the bitter end.
“Until the chequered flag comes down tomorrow, anything can happen,” he said. “I’m going to keep fighting for whatever comes. And I’m sure Charles from the back will push flat out to get every single point available and see what happens with the McLarens.”
Advert | Become a RaceFans supporter and
Weather
To the surprise of no one, the Abu Dhabi Grand prix will be a dry race. There is not even the slightest chance of rain hitting the Yas Marina circuit, meaning the constructors’ championship will be decided over a dry race.
The race itself will run in conditions largely similar to qualifying and Friday’s second practice session, with ambient temperatures just under 30C for the 5pm race start time and then steadily falling through the race as the sun sets. Wind has not been too big a factor so far this weekend and is unlikely to be again on Sunday, with wind speeds expected to be lower than the previous two days.
Start
In the last ten grands prix at Yas Marina, the driver on pole has led the opening lap eight times, with Lewis Hamilton the only driver able to take the lead from second on the grid – from Nico Rosberg in 2014 and Max Verstappen in their infamous 2021 showdown.
However, all that is likely to be rendered moot as Piastri will likely be under strict orders not to attack his team mate too hard at the start, given that it doesn’t matter what order they finish in, but that they are ahead of Ferrari.
Advert | Become a RaceFans supporter and
Strategy
It is a good thing for several teams that many drivers have already used up all of their soft tyres this weekend – as they will almost certainly not be needing them for Sunday.
This year, Pirelli predict a one-stop as being the best option, starting on mediums and switching to hard tyres – as was the case last weekend in Qatar. That is based on the levels of tyre degradation being lower this weekend than was observed at the same event last season.
Overtaking
Yas Marina is not known for producing thrilling racing but it’s fair to say that the extensive reprofiling at either ends of the track for the 2021 season has had a demonstrable impact on overtaking opportunities around the lap.
The last seven races held around the circuit’s old configuration – 2014-2020 – produced an average of 25.7 successful on-track overtakes outside of the first lap, per race. Following the modifications, the first three races have averaged 44.3 passes per race.
The two most obvious passing spots sit at the ends of the two DRS zones at turns six and nine. But the DRS zone along the back straight approaching turn six has been reduced by 50 metres for this year. This did not seem to affect the prospects of passing in Saturday’s F2 sprint race, however, with several moves made into the two turns.
Advert | Become a RaceFans supporter and
Safety Cars
With its almost endless asphalt run off areas, Yas Marina is not a circuit that produces Safety Cars often. The last ten have only produced three in total, with only two Virtual Safety Car periods needed over that same time.
One to watch
There is only one driver to pick for this final weekend of the season: Lewis Hamilton.
His final race for Mercedes sees him starting far lower than both he and his team would have wanted in 16th – although it’s likely that he deserved to be much higher given the pace he had shown up to the end of Q1.
Like Michael Schumacher, who capped off his time as a Ferrari driver with a stunning fight from the back in his final race before his first retirement at Brazil in 2006, Hamilton will be desperate to emulate his fellow seven-times champion by producing one final magic moment.
Advert | Become a RaceFans supporter and
Over to you
Will Sainz be able to fight against the McLarens for victory on Sunday? Share your views on the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix in the comments.
Miss nothing from RaceFans
Get a daily email with all our latest stories - and nothing else. No marketing, no ads. Sign up here:
2024 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
- Did Tsunoda ‘destroy’ his team mates – and are Red Bull wrong to pick Lawson over him?
- McLaren were ‘0.7 seconds away from losing the title’ in Abu Dhabi – Brown
- Another name change for RB and new driver numbers revealed in 2025 F1 entry list
- Ranked: The Formula 1 cars of 2024, from slowest to fastest
- McLaren are world champions with fewest grand prix wins in 25 years
juan fanger (@juan-fanger)
8th December 2024, 0:20
One to watch? Lewis Hamilton? Nah.
Charles Leclerc will be battling from even further back than Hamilton and he desparately needs to battle his way through to try to secure both a Constructors for his team and 2nd in the Drivers for himself.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
8th December 2024, 3:24
Yes, I’m not expecting hamilton to do have a good last race with mercedes, his form seems pretty bad lately, just like I wasn’t too surprised to see him eliminated early, even though it was a bad strategy by the team this time.
BenHur
8th December 2024, 8:53
One to unwatch, really.
The one to watch is of course Charles, or I would say both Ferrari drivers. Carlos is highly motivated to end his Fezza tenure with a win, while the Macca drivers do not need a win to secure the WDC and probably will not battle Carlos too hard if he can fight them.
David BR (@david-br)
8th December 2024, 0:36
Schumacher was retiring, not going to a rival and taking a lot of sponsorship cash with him. Hamilton will try and should be fast in the race. But imagine, even if he does something totally outlandishly miraculous and wins the race, just how genuine would the team’s celebrations be? All a bit sour and weird. The more likely reality is, though, he’ll probably have another dose of bad luck like his encounter with a randomly hurled bollard in qualifying and his Mercedes career will end as a damp squib. No real loss. Ferrari is now his future.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
8th December 2024, 3:25
If he does something miraculous and wins I don’t see why they wouldn’t celebrate a last win with hamilton\a last win with mercedes.
David BR (@david-br)
8th December 2024, 11:19
@esploratore1 I was thinking back to Silverstone and comparing the team’s reaction to Russell’s win at Spa (immediately after the race, before he lost it for pizza-related issues). Just feels hollow now. McLaren on the other hand should be having a wild time if they win the constructors championship.
BenHur
8th December 2024, 8:56
Will be asking the team to retire the car by midrace, out of sheer boredom
SPArtacus
8th December 2024, 1:05
Piastri needs a strong race. He’s finished the season down 21-3 in quali and little better in the race head-to-race (Monza and Hungary have created a false illusion of them being much closer when it comes to whose finished ahead in races than the actual reality). Discussion of “will Piastri become the #1 by next season” has not surprisingly died away since that little summer patch of competitiveness.
MichaelN
8th December 2024, 11:00
Indeed, as much as it’s fair to criticize Norris for making little of his opportunities – the fact remains that he’s had a solid edge over Piastri throughout the season. There aren’t more than a handful of races where Piastri was competitive. Losing Monza was particularly bad given the way he shoved Norris out of the way at the start.
He’s now essentially two full seasons into this game. It’s not often that drivers still get much quicker after that.
Doh
8th December 2024, 2:27
Where is Kevin’s penalty for impeding? Clear as, but they gave Nico a penalty instead smh
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
8th December 2024, 3:21
Ahah, I like how in the article they say sainz is determined to push the mclarens until the bitter end, let’s take it more literally: push both mclarens out of the track to try and cause a double retirement! That’s the only realistic title possibility!
BenHur
8th December 2024, 8:58
Do you really believe Carlos is that kind of driver? Based on what?
BenHur
8th December 2024, 9:10
And even then it is not so realistic. Getting both Maccas out of the race while surviving to score is a very tough one to pull (#44 used to be highly accomplished at this, their only true outstanding skill as a driver), and were Carlos to play bowling and take out both Maccas and himself by T1 (this one would be much easier to do) then only a win by Charles wouldsecure the WDC for the Scuderia. Extremely unlikely when starting from the last row.
Jere (@jerejj)
8th December 2024, 4:52
Will Sainz be able to fight against the McLarens for victory on Sunday?
– On pure pace, I doubt, & I reckon even Max will finish ahead.
As an additional note, don’t forget that F2 is a full spec series, so the DRS zone starting point aspect is largely incomparable & even though the overtaking amount may have been higher post-2020, Yas Marina Circuit even in its current configuration is barely more overtaking-friendly than before.
F1statsfan (@f1statsfan)
8th December 2024, 7:15
“ There is only one driver to pick for this final weekend of the season: Lewis Hamilton.”
Yeah sure – Lewis is really the only “British” driver you could pick. He screwed up qualifying and except for Vegas had poor to very poor races the last weekends.
Yet Charles Leclerc starts further back partly due his error partly due to unfortunate grid penalty is in far better form and is still part of the fight for constructor championship. But obviously he is not interesting to watch due to having the wrong passport.
BenHur
8th December 2024, 9:00
Sure, if you want to watch the worst drive of the millenium
anon
8th December 2024, 10:20
@f1statsfan why is it that you’re putting “British” in quotation marks, which gives the impression you’re implying he’s only sort of British?
Phil Norman (@phil-f1-21)
8th December 2024, 11:58
A bit of a silly comment I think. The author is just trying to draw a parallel between Schumacher and Hamilton having their last races in a Mercedes. I too don’t understand the inverted commas.
Phil Norman (@phil-f1-21)
8th December 2024, 11:59
Should have been a reply, not a new comment.