Max Verstappen clinched the drivers’ championship with two rounds to spare this year.
It was a much closer contest than last season. Verstappen claimed the 2023 title by winning 19 of the 22 grands prix. Red Bull were only beaten once that season, and it was clear anyone not in an RB19 was never going to win the title that year.But this year Verstappen faced a tougher fight. Red Bull began the year in good shape and he won seven times in the first 10 races. But over the remaining dozen rounds Verstappen only picked up two more grand prix victories.
Nonetheless, by the Las Vegas Grand Prix, Verstappen was able to put his points tally mathematically beyond the reach of Lando Norris – the last driver who could beat him to the crown.
Afterwards Verstappen claimed that not only could he have won the title in Norris’s McLaren, which went on to win the constructors’ championship, but the Ferrari as well. Both teams finished ahead of Red Bull in the final standings for the season, so does his claim convince you?
For
Verstappen’s claim won backing from an unlikely source. Before the final two races McLaren Racing CEO Zak Brown said he was potentially quick enough to win in the third-fastest car.
The constructors’ championship suggests he was, as Red Bull ended the year third behind Ferrari and McLaren.
Norris and Leclerc both dropped points compared to their team mates at times during the season. Verstappen dropped none to Sergio Perez – except in the one race where his car let him down.
Against
The top points-scorers from McLaren and Ferrari were not convinced by Verstappen’s claim.
“Not possible,” claimed Norris, who fell up to 84 points behind Verstappen at one stage and ended the year 63 off the Red Bull. Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc said Verstappen’s claim was “maybe a stretch”. He finished the season 81 points off the world champion.
Red Bull ended the year third, but that also reflects on Perez having his worst season since he joined them. The RB20 was the quickest car over a single lap on average, albeit narrowly.
I say
Once the writing was on the wall for Norris in the championship piece I took a look at how many points he had potentially missed during the course of the year for different reasons. I concluded Norris was responsible for the majority of them – more so than misfortune or errors by his team – and he had easily given up enough to overcome his deficit to Verstappen (and this was before he squandered 16 more in Qatar).
The McLaren therefore looked quick enough to win the drivers’ championship in Verstappen’s hands. It would have required him to lose very few points over the course of the year, but there weren’t many examples of him doing that (Yas Marina was one notable exception). And remember Norris had now technical retirements – Verstappen had one and it occured when the Red Bull was at its strongest.
Leclerc only finished 18 points behind Verstappen in the championship, so on the face of it this looks do-able too: Close, but still realistic. Mercedes, however, were simply too far away too often.
But this is just mathematical theory. What about the reality of exchanging Perez for a Piastri or Sainz in the other car – would they have taken points off him and impaired his title-winning hopes? That happened to Norris and Leclerc, but not Verstappen.
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You say
Could Verstappen have won the world championship in a
Do you agree Verstappen could have won the 2024 championship in a McLaren?
- No opinion (0%)
- Strongly disagree (12%)
- Slightly disagree (14%)
- Neither agree nor disagree (5%)
- Slightly agree (29%)
- Strongly agree (39%)
Total Voters: 173
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Do you agree Verstappen could have won the 2024 championship in a Ferrari?
- No opinion (0%)
- Strongly disagree (24%)
- Slightly disagree (21%)
- Neither agree nor disagree (7%)
- Slightly agree (30%)
- Strongly agree (17%)
Total Voters: 168
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Do you agree Verstappen could have won the 2024 championship in a Mercedes?
- No opinion (0%)
- Strongly disagree (74%)
- Slightly disagree (13%)
- Neither agree nor disagree (6%)
- Slightly agree (6%)
- Strongly agree (1%)
Total Voters: 159
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Riccard
15th December 2024, 9:14
McLaren – yes
Ferrari – don’t know
You can’t decide this just by looking at average laptimes: the teams were so mixed up this year that you need to work through race by race to figure out what points were on the table.
For McLaren, we have that analysis: https://www.racefans.net/2024/11/14/norriss-12-errors-which-cost-him-far-more-than-his-62-point-deficit-to-verstappen/
It showed that, until just after Brazil, Norris had missed 27 points through team mistakes, 31 through poor luck (though at other points he had good luck), and 92 points through mistakes.
Verstappen, on this year’s form, would have lost far less to mistakes… and might have carved out some moments of brilliance on top. Enough that Verstappen-in-a-McLaren would have beaten Verstappen-in-a-Red-Bull.
The Ferrari seemed not quite as fast over the season, so it’s a tougher question. To decide it would take a similar race by race analysis.
David West
15th December 2024, 16:57
That analysis assumes zero mistakes – Max made mistakes.
roadrunner (@roadrunner)
15th December 2024, 20:39
Let’s try. We assume, although this is quite unfair towards Sainz, that Leclerc is the better driver and therefore finish always as the lead Ferrari given reliability allows it.
This would Leclercs and Verstappens perfect season be like excluding fastest laps and technical problems, but including strategic errors.
Bahrain: Leclerc 4th, Verstappen 1st
Saudi Arabia: Leclerc 3rd, Verstappen 1st
Australia: Leclerc 1st (+10), Verstappen –
Japan: Leclerc 3rd (+13), Verstappen 1st
China: Leclerc 4th, Sprint 4th, Verstappen 1st, Sprint 1st
Miami: Leclerc 3rd, Sprint 2nd , Verstappen 2nd, Sprint 1st
Imola: Leclerc 3rd, Verstappen 1st
Monaco: Leclerc 1st, Verstappen 3rd (+7)
Canada: Leclerc -, Verstappen 1st
Spain: Leclerc 4th (+15), Verstappen 1st
Austria: Leclerc 3rd, Sprint 5th (+32), Verstappen 1st (+22), Sprint 1st
Great Britain: Leclerc 5th (+42), Verstappen 2nd
Hungary: Leclerc 4th, Verstappen 3rd (+27)
Belgium: Leclerc 3rd, Verstappen 4th (Verstappen could have at least been second, but they decided to take the grid penalty, so that’s what I consider the maximum with it)
Netherlands: Leclerc 3rd, Verstappen 2nd
Monza: Leclerc 1st, Verstappen 6th
Azerbaijan: Leclerc 1st (49), Verstappen 3rd, that’s where Perez was around, (+32)
Singapore: Leclerc 3rd (+55), Verstappen 2nd (the most difficult, because the Ferraris true pace especially in qualifying is hard to judge, but I guess despite the warm up problems they could have qualified ahead of Piastri.)
Austin, Leclerc 1st, Sprint 2nd (+57), Verstappen 3rd, Sprint 1st.
Mexico: Leclerc 1st (67), Verstappen 4th (36)
Brazil: Leclerc 4th, (+69) Sprint 3rd, Verstappen 1st, Sprint 3rd (37). Leclercs race was difficult to judge as Ferrari tried the undercut before the safety car. In the end he made a small mistake to let Russell slip through and didn’t have a lot of pace afterwards, so 4th is probably fair)
Las Vegas: Leclerc 3rd (+72), Verstappen 5th
Qatar: Leclerc 2nd, Sprint 4th (+74), Verstappen 1st, Sprint 7th (+38), had he have a better start he could (and should) have beaten Hulkenberg.
Abu Dhabi: Leclerc 3rd (2nd though if team order was necessary) Verstappen 3rd (+44)
So with perfect driving the car-driver combinations could have scored 74 (Leclerc) and 44 points (Verstappen) more than they did. It is unknown and in the imagination of the fans though if Verstappen had extracted even more from the Ferrari or if maybe Leclerc was able to find more pace in the Redbull than Verstappen.
But even with a perfect season with not a single point left on the board Leclerc would have fallen short of Verstappens points tally (437:430) Interestingly he also wouldn’t have won the world championship because none of his places and points gained would see Verstappen loosing a place.
I conclude that it’s impossible that a Verstappen in a Ferrari would have won against a Verstappen in a Redbull. Also I think it’s still highly, highly unlikely that he would have beaten a Hamilton, Leclerc or maybe even a Norris in the RedBull had he driven a Ferrari.
Over the course of a whole season the Ferrari was just not good enough.
roadrunner (@roadrunner)
15th December 2024, 20:54
Interestingly he also wouldn’t have won the world championship because none of his places and points gained would see Verstappen loosing a place.
Marcel
15th December 2024, 9:16
Well it is not that difficult is it, he won the WDC in the 3rd fastest on the grid. If you put him in a car that is faster then that, he will very likely score more point than he did.
And of course the driver that didn’t win the WDC in the second of fastest car, will disagree. It is the only answer you expect them to give at this question.
anon
15th December 2024, 10:42
Marcel, you’re claiming that the RB20 was “the 3rd fastest on the grid”, but that does seem questionable.
In the opening races of the season, nobody would have said the RB20 was only third fastest when Verstappen and Perez were still comfortably ahead of their rivals in both qualifying and race trim in most races. Even when Norris won in Miami, there were still many writing it off as being more down to a bit of luck for him and Verstappen damaging his car, and it wasn’t really until the middle of the season that the narrative that “McLaren are fastest” kicked off.
Even then, asides from the fact that Verstappen rarely qualified that low down the grid, it’s questionable whether the RB20 was really that inferior, or rather that it just happened to have certain limitations that certain circuits – and certain fans – tended to exaggerate.
Even in races where people were claiming that the RB20 was that inferior, there were still areas where the RB20 was clearly leading the other cars – in high speed corners which were governed by aerodynamic performance, the RB20 was still usually the fastest car through those types of corners (whereas the MCL38 and SF-24 tended to be more competitive at circuits with slow to medium speed corner types).
Added to that, Red Bull tended to focus their aerodynamic development towards circuits that tended to be more towards medium to medium high downforce packages, whereas McLaren and Ferrari put more emphasis on developing downforce packages for the more extreme ends of the downforce range (i.e. low to very low and high to very high).
Venues like Monza saw the RB20 struggle most, given that accentuated the disadvantages of the RB20 – a less efficient low downforce package that meant that running the car with a competitive level of downforce came with higher drag than their rivals – whilst also tending to mainly feature low to medium speed corners that tended to favour their rivals anyway. However, at venues with a more mixed blend of corner types and which tended to be closer to normal levels of downforce, and the RB20 tended to be more competitive.
There were those who also suggested a tendency for the relative competitiveness of the cars to vary depending on ambient temperature and tyre compounds. Mercedes seemed to be the most competitive in the coldest races, which seem to have masked their problems with imbalanced tyre temperatures, with the RB20 then tending to be more competitive at races with mild temperatures. As the ambient temperatures increased, you then tended to see the SF-24 and MCL38 tending to become more competitive.
Tyre compound, meanwhile, also seems to have been rather important, with the RB20 tending to be more competitive on the softer compounds used in the races, but not being quite as competitive on the harder compounds (whereas their rivals, and particularly the MCL38, tended to be stronger on those compounds).
There is a tendency to want to boil things down to a simplistic narrative, particularly if it is being used to reinforce a “hero narrative” that people want to push around certain drivers. In practice, I would say that the picture is much more nuanced – the RB20 had flaws in it’s performance that meant that, at certain venues or when using certain types of tyres, it was less competitive, but that did not apply to every single circuit on the calendar and there were times when the RB20 was more competitive than some might want to say it was.
I disagree with the notion that it was always “the 3rd fastest on the grid” – it feels more like we had a season where certain cars might be stronger or weaker at certain venues and in certain conditions, resulting in fluctuations in competitiveness and performance over the season. However, a nuanced picture requires more explanation and is less satisfactory to some, particularly if they want to push a driver centred rhetoric – it’s a lot simpler to say that such and such a car was always faster or slower than it’s rivals instead.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
15th December 2024, 15:27
Yes, I would say the red bull was overall faster than the ferrari, no doubt, but how much faster? Because verstappen had such a big margin that, if the car was only slightly faster on average, it’s not unthinkable he could’ve won in the ferrari too, by a small margin ofc.
grat
15th December 2024, 16:20
If Perez had scored anywhere near the number of points Verstappen had over the season, the Red Bull would have won the constructor’s championship.
McLaren: 374+292
Ferrari: 356+290
Red Bull: 437+152
For McLaren and Ferrari, their second driver scored about 80% of the points of the primary. Had Red Bull hit that ratio, that would have been 350 points for Perez. But even a mealy 78 additional points for Perez (52% of Verstappen’s points) would have put them into 1st in the WDC.
Craig
15th December 2024, 22:43
I knew people would try to convince themselves of that. Can’t say I’m not disappointed.
Riccard
15th December 2024, 9:21
Keith – small typo in the “I say” part of the article:
“Leclerc only finished 18 points behind Verstappen in the championship, so on the face of it this looks do-able too: Close, but still realistic. Mercedes, however, were simply too far away too often.”
Leclerc finished 18 points behind Norris. Easy fix! That’s clearly what you meant anyway.
Sumedh
15th December 2024, 9:24
Mclaren yes. Ferrari not a chance.
Euro Brun (@eurobrun)
15th December 2024, 13:13
I agree. Ferrari strategy for certain would have lost it!
J3D89
16th December 2024, 12:39
Are we trading teams or just machines?
Nulla Pax (@nullapax)
15th December 2024, 9:26
I reckon in the McLaren no problem.
Ferrari is less likely but still possible.
I doubt very much that the track dependent performance of the Mercedes could have been overcome even by Max.
Bob C
15th December 2024, 9:35
In a Ferrari? If you mean “in a Ferrari CAR”, well, possibly. If you mean “in a Ferrari car, in the Ferrari TEAM”, well, that might be a different matter.
McLaren. Probably
Mercedes: Nope.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
15th December 2024, 15:29
Ahah, good point, as good as verstappen is, being left out on slicks in the wet in canada doesn’t lead to victory!
However, I’m guessing he’s good enough at judging the weather that he would’ve opposed the decision, which would’ve helped his final result.
GechiChan (@gechichan)
16th December 2024, 6:14
Yes, that’s the real difference: if the Ferrari car was in RedBulls team hands than maybe. Otherwise not a chance.
roadrunner (@roadrunner)
16th December 2024, 19:45
Ferrari had the second best reliability, second to McLaren only and the best pitstops of all teams. Strategy wise they were also absolutely fine. Over the course of the year Leclerc lost only 11 points (8 in Silverstone, 3 in Las Vegas, but that was to his teammate) and gained 20-23 points (3 in Australia, 5 in the Netherlands, 2-5 points in Japan, 10 in Monza).The only real big mistakes was Great Britain (that was so bad everyone does remember it and forgets about the rest of the year, but Redbull did exactly the same with their second car that day too.
Canada was just a Hail Mary with nothing to loose anyway.
Mathias
15th December 2024, 9:36
He is turning into Alonso with a statement like this
Webbo (@webbo82)
15th December 2024, 9:56
My 1st though was, ugh what a classless and arrogant thing to say.
Then as much as I hate to admit it, the more I think about it… he’s right.
His outright speed is almost unbeatable, his tactics are ruthless and perhaps most importantly, virtually every driver is in a defeated mindset about him.
Nulla Pax (@nullapax)
15th December 2024, 12:19
This – a thousand times this.
If you can convince your opponents that you have an edge over them – be it your skills or equipment – then you are already halfway to winning.
pcxmac (@pcxmac)
19th December 2024, 16:32
he would not have won if he was the #2
GR (@gr)
15th December 2024, 10:36
Say whoever replaced him in Red Bull was only 2-3 tenths faster than Perez and that Verstappen was 2-3 tenths faster than Leclerc. The combination really would probably have been enough to tip it in his favour (is my instinct but if anyone has the time to run the actual numbers it would be fascinating…)
Vettelfan17
15th December 2024, 10:37
Honestly completely baffled that majority think Verstappen would have won the title in the Ferrari? Not only was the car a clear second best in the first part of the season, it had that horrible run from Canada to Zandvoort where it was usually the 4th best car (maybe 3rd at a push). Post Monza, yes it was a win contender usually but bar that US-Mexico stretch, never a dominant car compared to the early season Red Bull or McLaren at various points mid/late season – usually they were genuinely fighting one of the other three teams.
Plus, it wasn’t an error free season from Leclerc and Ferrari but I can’t think of any huge number of points they shipped through their mistakes (certainly not on the same level as Norris and McLaren). This feels more like recency bias since the Ferrari was very competitive in the last leg of the season – but points aren’t only awarded then.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
15th December 2024, 15:31
Yes, as someone who voted slightly agree, I think you’re right, I was in doubt whether voting that or the “I don’t know” option, it’s not clear cut like the mclaren or mercedes are, I’d have to see a race by race points analysis to see where verstappen might’ve made the difference.
Davethechicken
15th December 2024, 11:05
Only if he also was given a patsy teammate.
He was quote “very evenly matched” to Sainz in TR according to Marko himself, although the points flattered Max.
If Marko is correct, logically he wouldn’t have been any where near winning in a Ferrari.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
15th December 2024, 15:33
Things changed since then, verstappen is now (including this season) significantly stronger than leclerc, not because of the speed but the consistency and wet weather flair, so ofc he could’ve at least challenged in the ferrari; whether he would’ve won is another story.
Davethechicken
15th December 2024, 16:11
There is no objective evidence of that though. Max was poor in the wet in Silverstone, strong in Brazil.
There is a reason he has not been given a strong teammate since his defeats by Riccardo. Red Bull have had plenty of opportunities to replace Perez and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Sergio in the Red Bull in 25.
Until he goes against the current best drivers in the same machinery there will be doubt.
Whose to say Leclerc wouldn’t have won this year’s WDC in the Red Bull with Max as teammates?
osnola
16th December 2024, 18:23
LOL, still delusional i see ;)
Davethechicken
16th December 2024, 19:14
You maybe should reread the WDC standings for 2016 and 2017….
Bob
15th December 2024, 11:12
If it was always the same driver finishing ahead in the Ferrari and getting the fastest lap they’d end up on 412 points. That’s just 25 points behind Max. Given how many points Ferrari dropped, it’s easy to imagine those 25 points could’ve been overcome. So yes, the Ferrari could’ve won.
However, if anyone would’ve won in it (or the McLaren) all depends on who’s in the Red Bull. There’s a huge benefit to having a teammate like Perez. If whoever replaces Max in this hypothetical is able to comfortably beat Perez and build a dominant lead early on while also getting the odd podium here and there afterwards, I can’t see Max winning in the Ferrari or McLaren. I can see Leclerc, Russell, Hamilton, and Norris all doing that. Perhaps the pressure might get to all of them except Hamilton though since it’d be their first time fighting for the title.
MichaelN
15th December 2024, 11:18
But ‘getting the fastest laps’ equals almost a whole win worth of points, when that’s not a realistic at all. Even in an utterly dominant season like 2023, Verstappen got 9 fastest laps out of 22 races.
Bob
16th December 2024, 9:35
Sorry, could’ve worded that better. I meant only including the fastest laps Ferrari got, not all of them. So it’s an extra 4 points, not 24.
MichaelN
15th December 2024, 11:28
These things are unknowable, because who would be driving the Red Bull in this little fantasy scenario? If it’s Piastri and Ocon, maybe. If it’s Leclerc and Hamilton? No chance.
Fact is, Verstappen scored only the third-most points in the second half of the season. Leclerc and Norris did better, and Piastri was pretty close to Verstappen, too. Verstappen was in a very fortunate situation where he could (easily) win almost every race in the first half of the season. That can’t be dismissed because he also collected a few P5s later on. None of the other teams ever had that situation, and were competitive to different degrees in different places.
If 2025 is more like late 2024, we’ll see how well Verstappen does. Especially with his unsportsmanlike antics under scrutiny from day 1.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
15th December 2024, 15:38
We could imagine sainz in the red bull, since verstappen is at the ferrari to show there’s more points on the table than leclerc got, but in this scenario verstappen would win for sure, it would take a really strong driver to still win at the red bull, because any other driver than verstappen would ofc score less points than he did in reality.
MichaelN
15th December 2024, 16:56
It seems from a somewhat cursory glance that Leclerc lost big points in Australia and England, especially the latter was just a big flop. Then there’s minor points in races like Japan, Spain, Singapore, and arguably Mexico and USA Las Vegas. Races like Bahrain (brake problems), Canada (DNF) and Austria (Piastri damaged his wing) aren’t included.
All in all, maybe a perfect season would have netted him something like 40 points more. But that’s still ideal-scenario stuff. He still wouldn’t have cleared 400 points, leaving an identical-to-Verstappen competitor still almost two race wins ahead in the championship. So even someone who wouldn’t have taken as many points still had a very comfortable cushion.
fawkes
15th December 2024, 11:44
It’s really getting ridiculous how people put Max on a pedestal, like a semigod. Very Alonso like thing to say things like this. What Max really needs to show is facing a really strong teammate once more. He only had two of the kind, Ricciardo and Sainz, both awesome guys, but not A+, champion material per se. If Max comprehensively beats the likes of Hamilton, Russell, Leclerc and Norris on the same machiner then I’ll shut my damn mouth.
Davethechicken
15th December 2024, 13:45
Totally agree.
It is starting to look like Red Bull are scared to put a decent teammate in there, as the myth maybe exposed.
They passed on Sainz who has matured nicely since leaving TR. I honestly don’t think Max has changed at all since then, he seems as easily rattled as ever.
I don’t think we will ever see Max in a Merc or Ferrari. He will retire before facing a proper teammate.
Robbie1
15th December 2024, 15:10
“very evenly matched”
In only his second season of single seater Formula where he had to adjust to a new qualifying format and tires he’d never driven he beat a driver with 5 years more of experience in single seater formula who was accustomed to the qualifying format and tires by 60-22.
Yes, Carlos was more solid but Max his peaks were a lot higher, like Malaysia qualifying, Hungary and ofcourse Austin.
And while Carlos has become and even more solid driver, Max has turned his peaks into his standard.
He’d do to Carlos what he has done to Checo and the rest.
Davethechicken
15th December 2024, 16:18
Carlos was an F1 rookie in 2015 too, Robbie.
You are being disingenuous to suggest Carlos had a lot more experience, Max was driving single seaters karts since he was a young boy. The tyres in F3 are as far from F1 as go karts.
Carlos too was starting out in F1 both depute seasons.
You really should go back and reread what else Marko said at the time, it was marginal for Max to get the Red Bull drive over Carlos.
MichaelN
15th December 2024, 17:01
Verstappen finished Hungary in 4th, but Sainz had been right with him until lap 54 (VER was then 5th, SAI 6th) when he started having an issue that eventually led to a DNF.
Verstappen repeated 4th in USA Texas, but Sainz finished in 6th. Earlier, the two had run 6th and 7th but Sainz dropped back to almost last during a set of three FCYs. It was a strong race for him, too.
Obviously, Red Bull had its reasons to promote Verstappen rather than Sainz, but the latter certainly did (much) better than the points tally would suggest.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
15th December 2024, 15:41
While I’d like to see that too, verstappen did a great job against hamilton in 2021 in a marginally slower car across the whole season. For now he definitely is more consistent than all those drivers while not lacking their speed.
Davethechicken
15th December 2024, 16:12
Adrian Newey and Horner agreed the 2021 RBR was and I quote “on balance the fastest” car in 2021.
MacLeod (@macleod)
16th December 2024, 7:49
But the Mercedes was the fastest at the end of the season.
Grapmg
15th December 2024, 17:04
He already beat Hamilton 2021, Leclerc 2022 and Norris 2024 all in cars faster that the RB.
Davethechicken
15th December 2024, 17:44
Not true. 2021 Red Bulls own Adrian Newey in an interview with him and Horner said the Red Bull was the quickest car on balance that year
Horner nodding in agreement.
As for 2022 I can’t take that seriously. What a bizarre claim.
Otam
16th December 2024, 1:32
On balance means the aero package. Engine power was way behind Mercedes.
Davethechicken
16th December 2024, 11:51
If you watch the interview, it is on YouTube, so you will see the context of the use of “on balance” meant over the whole season.
Grapmg
16th December 2024, 9:52
2022 Jolyon Palmer analyses of the Ferrari pace rated slightly above RB. https://youtu.be/M8zuimqeZVU?si=37QyZOa4Vg7bC1XA
Conclusion Ferrari and Leclerc made too many mistakes in 2022.
Davethechicken
16th December 2024, 12:01
Hadn’t seen that video before you link.
If you listen at 4min10sec Palmer says “Red Bull, fastest race car, if not the fastest qualifying car”
Quite self explanatory.
Grapmg
16th December 2024, 14:27
So you skipped the start? All Depends how you look at it qualifying pace Ferrari or race pace Red Bull. Point is they were much closer in pace than you think and Max made the difference.
Davethechicken
16th December 2024, 14:53
No, as you probably worked out I watched the whole thing.
He basically said Red Bull had the fastest race car, best strategies, best pitstops and best reliability.
It was Leclerc who made the difference in qualifying with amazing laps. But the Ferrari was much harder on tyres and slower. Even at the start of the video he highlighted the race pace advantage of Red Bull.
You obviously didn’t watch your own evidence, I hope you are not a lawyer!!!
roadrunner (@roadrunner)
16th December 2024, 16:06
This video pretty much says the opposite of what you’re claiming…
osnola
16th December 2024, 18:25
He just in worse machinery did so be still ;)
Sumedh
15th December 2024, 11:58
Thanks for doing the 412 calculation.
However, I am not sure where you will find the additional 25 points. We have already assumed that Max is the best Ferrari driver in the 412. How many races are such where you feel BOTH Ferrari drivers under-delivered. Not many. Plus, Max himself didn’t maximise his points in the Red Bull on at least 4 occasions – Austria, Mexico, Abu Dhabi, Hungary. So, really doubt Max could have got more than 412. Which means this hypothetical Ferrari – Max would fall short of the Red Bull – Max
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
15th December 2024, 15:45
Very good point, obviously verstappen would fall short of his own red bull tally, because red bull was overall a better car this season: we’re not (or shouldn’t) comparing him with himself on a red bull, we’re comparing him with a lesser driver in a red bull; let’s say he’s doing a straight swap with sainz, I think most would agree sainz would lose at least 25 points compared to what verstappen did in that red bull, making verstappen-ferrari the champion.
wsrgo (@wsrgo)
15th December 2024, 11:58
Max, and as a matter of fact, Lewis, are both incapable of winning a title at Ferrari. Any strategic incompetence is gonna be met with such vitriol from the drivers that the CEO would fire them personally for daring to criticise the team.
roadrunner (@roadrunner)
15th December 2024, 14:22
How many examples of strategic incompetence can you find this season? Ferrari were pretty slick in this aspect last year. Definitely ahead of McLaren and Mercedes. Redbull is still clearly ahead though.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
15th December 2024, 15:46
Well, being on dry tyres in the wet in canada and on wet tyres in the dry in silverstone wasn’t a great steategic decision!
roadrunner (@roadrunner)
15th December 2024, 16:16
Yes. Silverstone was bad, the Last Vegas chaos was unnecessary too. But as I can remember those were the only big mistakes. In Hungary they got the tyre choice for Leclerc wrong for the second and third stint.
Canada was a Hail Mary with nothing too loose anyway. (which was never going to work anyway therefore unnecessary, but so what). But apart from that they were good to very good. Not letting themselves getting undercut all the time, using alternative strategies to good effect in Suzuka, Monza, Singapore, beeing agressive with the undercut (Netherlands, Australia). After a terrible 2022 and a difficult start to 2023 I was very positively surprised by them.
Alianora La Canta (@alianora-la-canta)
16th December 2024, 18:14
@roadrunner Several instances of leaving Leclerc stuck being Sainz when Leclerc was faster, in positions where he could plausibly have got further up the grid had he been allowed through. Multiple races where it was obvious that the strategies had had to be changed in order to avoid Sainz being able to be immediately ahead of Leclerc mid-race (which themselves didn’t always work). At least three occasions where Leclerc was left on the first-stint tyres much longer than made sense under the circumstances.
There’s an argument for reaching double figures for the number of races Ferrari’s strategy had a negative effect on Leclerc’s race (and Sainz’s races were affected negatively at least 4 times, for that matter).
roadrunner (@roadrunner)
16th December 2024, 20:28
Name them please, as I can’t remember. Maybe Spain? I don’t remember it quite well, just that they were battling early on. But to be honest I like it when they are fighting and Leclerc is not the number 1 and if it doesn’t really compromise their races (which I don’t think it did) than it’s fine unless one driver is fighting for the title. Pre plan and micromanage every race situation never ends well and will leave the drivers frustrated at some point.
Bullfrog (@bullfrog)
15th December 2024, 12:05
In a Ferrari painted blue and run by RBR with Lambiase and the whole crew (and second driver) behind him? Yeah, probably.
But actually making the switch, with everything that comes with driving for Ferrari, and all of Italy? Well, Vettel, Alonso, Prost and Mansell all thought they could. Got to admire Hamilton for giving it a shot.
In a McLaren – they were clearly lacking a bit RBR’s killer instinct when they started winning again. Don’t think that team would have won so many races, even with Max.
Michael (@freelittlebirds)
15th December 2024, 12:15
I have a feeling he didn’t mean in terms of pace – he was just referring to the fact that other drivers are not allowed to push other drivers off track like he can due to the special understanding that Red Bull and Max have negotiated with the FIA. It’s a great advantage for sure.
In any sport, the rules are the most important and the deciding part of competition and we’re week in and week out reminded that they don’t apply to Max.
Neil (@neilosjames)
15th December 2024, 12:49
I think probably in a McLaren, probably not in a Ferrari, and no chance at all in a Mercedes.
But there are too many unknowns to say for sure… team-mates, who’d be in the Red Bull, single driver focus or not, etc.
stjs16 (@stjs16)
15th December 2024, 12:53
Echos of Jacques Villeneuve. Cheap throw away comments! All part of theatre F1 has now become.
stjs16 (@stjs16)
15th December 2024, 12:55
edit: Pantomime not theatre
MG1982 (@mg1982)
15th December 2024, 13:02
Bold claim. There’re some real chances he might have done it in a McLaren, but in the Ferrari too?! Highly unlikely in my opinion. There’re some question marks, but a “given” aspect too. The given aspect would be that nobody has a perfect season, so like at least 10 points must be added in the Lost Points column, due to various reasons. Then, we don’t know if he will perform just as good in other car(s). We’ve seen what happened to RIC once he left RBR. Also, the chances of having a team mate performing just as bad as Perez in 2024 are minimal. There were like at least 1-2 races per season where the No.2s (designated or not) outperformed the No.1/Preffered driver of the team. We’ve seen it with Irvine, Coulthard, Barrichello, Massa (vs Schumacher and Raikkonen), Raikkonen (vs Alonso), Bottas, Leclerc (vs Vettel), Sainz (vs Leclerc), Piastri (vs Norris) etc etc. So, I think another 10 points minimum should be added in the Lost Points column for VER.
Sonny Crockett (@sonnycrockett)
15th December 2024, 13:13
Yep, he would’ve walked the Championship in either the Ferrari or the McLaren. He has that winning ‘muscle memory’ that Lando and Leclercq currently lack.
I think he might’ve just about done it in the Mercedes too. He certainly would’ve helped their development throughout the season.
wsrgo (@wsrgo)
15th December 2024, 13:28
@sonnycrockett Max would have committed a murder of he had to live through Ferrari’s incompetent strategies of Canada and Britain.
No one is winning the title with Ferrari unless they have a 0.5 s advantage over the rest. Not Lewis. Not Max.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
15th December 2024, 15:50
At last someone who remembers their tyre blunders in the wet! Because I’ve seen people say ferrari weren’t as bad strategy wise this season, and when I think about those situations I can’t agree!
Michael (@freelittlebirds)
15th December 2024, 20:19
@sonnycrockett that’s 4 out 10 teams (5 if we include RB). Sauber must feel a bit left out :-)
Peter707
15th December 2024, 13:15
If he had kept the same level in a Ferrari and had a very weak team-mate, he would have been world champion, I agree. However, I’m not sure he could deliver his actual stellar perfection if either inter- or intra-team competition became tight. (this year was far from tight, he always had a comfortable lead in the championship, McLaren and Norris never seemed to be serious contenders).
Yes (@come-on-kubica)
15th December 2024, 14:33
Verstappen would struggle in either cars as they aren’t built for him and the teams aren’t just working for him and his dad. Would have been rattled by his team mate at both teams – caused massive headaches and probably resulted him being out of the team by the end of the season.
Norris/Leclerc Co in the Red Bull think would clinch the title.
Jere (@jerejj)
15th December 2024, 14:38
McLaren & Ferrari: Slightly disagree
Mercedes: Strongly disagree
I could’ve also gone for ‘Slightly agree’ with the former two, but felt disagree to be more applicable, given definitive assessment is impossible as he mightn’t necessarily have got to grips with the other cars as well for all everyone can know.
Maciek (@maciek)
15th December 2024, 14:41
There’s a fine yet crucial difference between would and could. Could he have? Yes, sure, but that also applies to other drivers, including the ones driving for those teams. Would he have? Impossible to answer. Essentially having no internal competition within the team is a critical factor and there’s simply no telling how he would have fared in a different machine and a teammate taking points off him – not to mention getting under his skin. How many DNFs would Red Bull have on their hands if Verstappen clashed with his own teammate on a regular basis?
roadrunner (@roadrunner)
15th December 2024, 15:04
In a McLaren probably yes. But it’s easy to forget that Redbull was able to build a massive lead early on, which he had to catch up first. And we all know how he can react under pressure when things don’t go his way. Maybe it’d be him who had lost the points that Norris lost while playing catch up. Furthermore McLaren wasn’t a particularly slick operation in terms of driver and race management.
In a Ferrari it’s hard to imagine though. Ferrari had better strategies than McLaren, but their car was only definitely faster than the Redbull in 7 (9 if you add AU and SG) out of 24 races (MC, ITA, AZ, US, MEX, US, AE) and Leclerc didn’t loose any more points than Verstappen did due to mistakes/collisions and rarely underperformed too.
In a Mercedes not a snowball’s chance in hell.
Edvaldo
15th December 2024, 15:34
Ferrari was 4th fastest for a good chunk of the season.
He’s probably just taking a dig at Norris and Leclerc.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
15th December 2024, 15:57
However it’s very very clear he’d have won in the mclaren, in the ferrari would need a race by race analysis to be sure, I heard about a 412 points figure, which would be enough cause you wouldn’t have verstappen in the red bull, but seems a big number of points lost for leclerc, need to see how it was calculated.
David West
15th December 2024, 16:57
He wouldn’t win in a McLaren with McLaren strategists.
“Very clear he’s have won in the McLaren” – can I have what you’re smoking please!
Alianora La Canta (@alianora-la-canta)
16th December 2024, 18:10
I don’t think so. The Red Bull was a slower car for significant parts of the season than either McLaren or Ferrari, and that is what I think Max is trying to highlight here.
Edvaldo
16th December 2024, 19:37
Mclaren, fine, but Ferrari, no, nothing to call significant, at least in terms of winning a WDC.
More like 6 or 7 races out of 24 and having just Max as reference, we can’t even tell if Red Bull wasn’t faster in Monaco and he just fumbled his qualy lap when he touched the wall.
In Baku, Perez showed it was at least as fast as Ferrari.
He, the team and the car would need to be perfect to beat the Mclaren. And different from Red Bull, which was still good enough for him to win some races after Mclaren hit their stride in Miami, Ferrari’s earlier season form waned pretty quickly, he was definitely not winning those races in a Ferrari.
Eckie77
15th December 2024, 16:03
You can calculate this (assuming they all three have similar speed), by comparing the conversion rate of the drivers. Conversion rate is points divided by maximum points available (points + driver errors / suboptimal performance). Suboptimal performance includes being outperformed by team mate in race. To be clear, it does not include team/strategy errors or bad luck. In that case the maximum points for Norris were substantially higher.
Conversion rates 2024:
VER: 437 / 463 (437+26) = 94% -> or 26 points lost out of 463
NOR: 374 / 456 (374+82) = 82% -> or 82 points lost out of 456
LEC: 356 / 408 (356+52) = 87% -> or 52 points lost out of 408
So if you would apply Verstappen’s conversion rate of 94% to the maximum points available for Leclerc (408), he would have scored 383 points in the Ferrari, which is 9 point more than Lando Norris did in the McLaren. So yes he would have also won in the Ferrari. Again this assumes Max has similar speed to Leclerc (which you can argue by now), but only yields more consistent results.
Just for a reference the conversion rate of Max and Lewis in 2021 were:
VER: 396 / 415 (396+19) = 95% -> or 19 points lost out of 415
HAM: 388 / 464 (388+76) = 84% -> or 76 points lost out of 464
roadrunner (@roadrunner)
15th December 2024, 21:29
I like that way of expressing how a driver performs. I did include bad strategy though, (but not unreliability) but it only costs Leclerc 10 points and Verstappen none at all. It’s still subjective how many points a driver can achieve if he had a perfect season. My numbers are different, but the percentage is close enough
Verstappen (+44 points ) 437:481= 91%
Leclerc (+74 points) 356:430=83%
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
15th December 2024, 22:19
Great post, that’s what I was looking for! This really shows what some of us are saying about verstappen: his consistency is crazy, and hamilton had no business being in the title fight in abu dhabi 2021 if not for better luck with reliability\tyres, he threw away too many points.
So the ferrari was good enough after all, although barely.
Edvaldo
16th December 2024, 13:48
It wouldn’t look so good if he had a better teammate though. Remember: his teammate is the guy who has a brand new 2-year deal with the team that they’re trying to buy out so he can leave early, so bad is his performance.
sam
15th December 2024, 16:31
Max being classy as usual. Whats next? He could win in a Williams too?
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
15th December 2024, 22:23
Not sure if you checked the numbers but it’s a reasonable claim he could win in a ferrari, a williams is another thing.
Fraser McAninch
15th December 2024, 16:34
Yes he could win in just about any car he would just crash into people for the first four races and show them that he is not going to let anybody pass him and everybody else is afraid to block him because he would crash into them so yeah great strategy. He’s dangerous he should be banned although we’ll let him get the fastest lap qualifying
Jeffrey Powell
15th December 2024, 16:50
I have read with interest the many comments theorizing on various driver combinations and how this could or
could not affect Max’s. ability to wipe the floor with ,in his opinion , the mere mortals that laughably are ranged against him. It is evident that he is a driver of extreme talent and his greatest fan is obviously himself , I note that Seb.Ogier. who can appear equally dominant does not try us with similar opinions , but then again I would classify him as an adult.
harsha vardhan
15th December 2024, 16:50
Usual F1 driver cringe
David West
15th December 2024, 16:55
Wow, such arrogance.
Is he assuming Perez is still his team mate? Quite a leap to even suggest he beats Leclerc and certainly Leclerc would be taking points from him, as would Sainz.
I reckon I could win the title in a Haas!
David BR (@david-br)
15th December 2024, 22:36
It’s arrogant, I agree, especially as he’s had easily the easiest team mate to beat by far, as arranged by Red Bull for his benefit. Reeks of entitlement as always. But it’s up to the other drivers to prove him wrong now.
Alianora La Canta (@alianora-la-canta)
16th December 2024, 17:43
I think Verstappen was talking about the raw car being fast enough to be something he could have won the title in, rather than any hypothetical team-mate pairings.
osnola
16th December 2024, 18:29
He was.. but do not take away their narrative.. They need it to pass the Verstappen dominance the last four years..
Dane
15th December 2024, 16:58
It’s hard to imagine Max completely dominating Leclerc, Norris, or Sainz and Piastri the way he did to Perez. In 2015 Max certainly did not dominate Sainz so I would expect his teammate to take points off of him making this claim much more difficult. The fact Red Bull didn’t want Sainz for next year only reinforces this argument.
Johnny
15th December 2024, 17:00
Why doesn’t he first wait and see if he wins the title again in next year’s RedBull?
Alianora La Canta (@alianora-la-canta)
16th December 2024, 17:42
Because that’s next year.
Johnny
16th December 2024, 18:23
Which is the championship he should be worried about. Isn’t it?
He’s already won this year’s title. Guess he’s a little salty about something.
Moshambles (@moshambles)
15th December 2024, 17:06
Slow news day
RH
15th December 2024, 17:26
It is not as simple as just change the car and we will see what happens.
Red Bull operations + McLaren Car = Domination by Verstappen.
Red Bull operations + Ferrari Car = He would have fought for the title but I really can’t say anything more.
mars
15th December 2024, 19:23
If there is anything comparable (slightly meaningful) between the two (Charles and Max), it is what Charles and Max did against Carlos when they were teammates. Charles has better stats against Carlos than Max. So in that case, the best prize Max could win would be old Helmut’s complimentary farts in a SF-24 instead of wdc.
The dominance of the car he raced in the first six races of the season was good enough to win wdc alone. So much so that even Perez was second in the championship after the first six races thanks to RB-20. I don’t know what FIA forced them to change, but the remaining of the season was between 4 teams, but still, RBR was the better car and team combination than Ferrari and Mercedes in the average of the remaining races. Max is an excellent driver, may even be the best of his generation thanks to his stunning car control (not his pure pace), but that is the end of the story. There is no god mod in real life.
David BR (@david-br)
15th December 2024, 22:25
(without looking yet at anyone else’s responses)
McLaren, strongly agree
Ferrari, slightly disagree
Mercedes, strongly disagree
David BR (@david-br)
15th December 2024, 22:32
So presuming Max in a McLaren is the only plausible option (the Ferrari probably wasn’t fast enough, the Mercedes very definitely not), two big questions with this hypothetical: who is Verstappen’s team mate in the other McLaren and who gets to drive the Red Bull instead?
Answer to the first question: probably doesn’t matter. Neither Norris nor Piastri were good/fast enough to beat Verstappen. Answer to the second question: put Hamilton or Leclerc in the vacant Red Bull, it’s back to being very close, especially as Verstappen would also be facing actual competition from the other McLaren (albeit not likely to beat him enough times).
Craig
15th December 2024, 22:46
Assuming that’s his actual statement then I’d say arrogance is very much in full control of him. The answer would be “no” as it seems to omit the idea that someone else would be dominating in the Red Bull to make an insurmountable points gap by the time things go south.
EffWunFan (@cairnsfella)
16th December 2024, 6:28
An interesting discussion, though perhaps not poll-worthy in my personal opinion.
Could or Would are also rather different in my eyes. The way I see it Norris ‘could’ have reasonably been able to with the championship in McLaren. He didn’t, but it was not unreasonable to believe he could have done.
And as other have raised, there are a heck of a lot of variables to consider.
But if it is just intended to be a simple “is it conceivably possible that Max could have won the championship in another car assuming all other car/driver combos performed identically and no sufficiently capable driver was in the Red Bull” Then McLaren, Yes. Ferrari, Probably not. Anything else, no chance.
Charlie Payne
16th December 2024, 11:43
What about another article that flips this conversation to who else could have won the world championship if they were in the Redbull?
Prab
16th December 2024, 16:03
Thats an interesting question. With Perez as their teammate and exchanging Verstappen with the person to be put in his seat, I think Alonso, Leclerc, Hamilton & Russell would be champion.
Alianora La Canta (@alianora-la-canta)
16th December 2024, 17:40
I’m not convinced that Verstappen would have got to the end of the season in Ferrari to find out whether he could have won the championship in it. There’s simply too much off-stage stuff going on there that Max would detest for this to have been an option. At that point, looking at the points tally is only worthwhile if rephrasing the question as:
“Would Verstappen have won the title in a car that was the same speed as Ferrari, but with Red Bull’s determination to remove as much of the off-track workload as possible and McLaren’s relatively low number of mistakes?” (The latter is essential because at Ferrari-team-level mistakes, nobody at all could have won a title; having Verstappen there would simply have changed the errors without necessarily changing their propensity to scupper strong races).
I’d argue that Verstappen could have won under such circumstances – and so could Leclerc, had this been offered. It’s harder for me to assess Norris’ claim for three reasons:
1) Norris developed a lot during the season. There were situations he handled reasonably well late in the season that he couldn’t handle mid-season, let alone earlier. The point of the season where the combination was strongest would have a bigger influence on the answer than for Leclerc (whose development path through 2024 concerned subtler matters) or Verstappen (whose development path in 2024 was either subtler than Leclerc’s or plain flattening out).
2) Norris had problems with Verstappen specifically, which in turn were fuelled by the number of times they were together on track. If Verstappen was not in the Red Bull, Norris would have met Verstappen less often. This would have made the issues with Verstappen matter less, but magnify any skill issues regarding whoever he did end up sharing a track most often instead.
3) The effects of FIA regulation, some of which appeared to stem from 2) and some from what can politely be called off-track issues. Changing who was in what speed car would inevitably have affected some of this, in ways I find difficult to assess.
On the other hand, I think Verstappen would have coped fine with McLaren’s team structure, ambience and culture. He’d have been less comfy than in 2023-spec Red Bull, but probably a happier champion than he was in the 2024 version. Bonus: Piastri would probably have been more help in the Constructors’ title fight than Perez was.
w0o0dy
17th December 2024, 7:06
A few things will make or break his argument. In the McLaren yes absolutely unless someone would have been capable of driving the RedBull to its limits… Then it would have been harder.
The Ferrari argument.. well who is in the other Ferrari? Sainz or Leclerc? I think it’s a lot harder against either of them because even he is unlikely to blow Leclerc or Sainz away completely. But let’s say including team orders I can see it happen.
Evans
17th December 2024, 12:38
If Verstapen had been in the Ferrari, who would have been in the Red bull? Does he mean he would beat Leclerc in Max’s Redbull while Max is in the Ferrari?
Is he in Ferrari with Segio as team mate or Leclerc?
I’m not yet convinced that Max is that much better than Leclerc. He might be better but the gap between them is not big enough for him to beat Leclerc with a car handicap.