10 predictions for the 2025 F1 season

Verstappen banned? Alpine sold? Which of these 2025 predictions will come true?

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The 2025 Formula 1 season is still two months away but we already know what some of the main points of interest for the upcoming year will be.

Will Red Bull’s new driver secure his place at the team for years to come? Will the FIA replace Mohammed Ben Sulayem? And are Formula One Management cooking up more changes for the future?

Judge which of these 10 predictions will come true before the end of the year and cast your votes below.

Lawson succeeds

Another one enters the lion’s den. Sergio Perez lasted four years alongside Max Verstappen, but he had the benefit of 10 years’ F1 experience when he arrived. Lawson has just 11 grands prix. Will he sink or swim?

Will Lawson get a contract to race for Red Bull in 2026?

  • No (41%)
  • Yes (59%)

Total Voters: 182

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Down to the wire

The drivers’ championship rarely goes down to the wire these days. It’s happened just twice in the last 10 years. But last season saw four teams vying for victory for most of the year, an unusually competitive situation for Formula 1, and if that continues we might just get a fight that goes the full 24 rounds.

Will the drivers' championship be decided at the final round?

  • No (68%)
  • Yes (32%)

Total Voters: 184

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Verstappen banned

Max Verstappen, Lando Norris, Circuit of the Americas, 2024

The reigning world champion goes into the new season with eight penalty points on his licence. What’s more, none will be deducted until after the 11th round of the season. Last year Kevin Magnussen hit the dreaded 12 penalty points which triggers an automatic race ban. Now Verstappen is at risk of the same.

Will Verstappen collect a race ban for reaching 12 penalty points?

  • No (70%)
  • Yes (30%)

Total Voters: 186

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Four more years for Ben Sulayem

FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem has not endeared himself to many in Formula 1 after winning election late in 2021. The drivers in particular have been unimpressed with his demands they watch their language. But what matters most for him is whether the FIA membership believes he is doing a good job, and they will give their verdict in this year’s election.

Will Mohammed Ben Sulayem win a second term as FIA president?

  • No (47%)
  • Yes (53%)

Total Voters: 184

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Even longer calendar

Pierre Gasly, Alpine, Las Vegas Strip Circuit, 2024

The 2025 F1 calendar features 24 races, the same number as last year. Formula One Management CEO Stefano Domenicali has repeatedly claimed he will not extend it further. But more rounds mean more money, and as its commercial agreements with the teams is up for renewal, now might be the time FOM tries to squeeze in one more event.

Will F1's 2026 calendar feature more than 24 races?

  • No (70%)
  • Yes (30%)

Total Voters: 185

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Colapinto displaces Doohan

Even before last season finished, rumours emerged that Alpine consultant Flavio Briatore wanted to reverse their decision to appoint Jack Doohan this year and hire Franco Colapinto instead. That hasn’t happened, but Alpine has appointed Colapinto as a reserve driver and Briatore was not exactly fulsome in his praise of Doohan’s debut in Abu Dhabi. The writing may be on the wall already for one of 2025’s rookies.

Will Alpine replace Doohan with Colapinto before the end of the season?

  • No (19%)
  • Yes (81%)

Total Voters: 187

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Budget cap broken

The last time Formula 1 introduced sweeping changes to its regulations, one team exceeded the budget cap during the previous season. That was Red Bull, whose rivals felt their (unintentional) £1.8 million overspend was inadequately punished by a £6m fine (exempt from the cap) and reduction in their aerodynamic testing allocation, leading to their later domination. Is any team already thinking that might be a price worth paying to get ahead on their design for a car which will form the basis of their design for years to come? If so we won’t find out until some time in 2026.

Will any F1 team exceed the budget cap in 2025?

  • No (62%)
  • Yes (38%)

Total Voters: 181

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Reverse sprint

Start, sprint race, Interlagos, 2024

FOM has long been deaf to critics of sprint races and Domenicali is eager to take the gimmick further by starting the races with a reversed or partially reversed grid. Past attempts to impose reverse grid races failed, but after five years of sprint events, they may intend to try again.

Will F1 introduce reverse grid sprint races for upcoming seasons?

  • No (76%)
  • Yes (24%)

Total Voters: 185

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Alpine sold

Alpine owners Renault will abandon their F1 engine project at the end of this year. The surprising decision to surrender a significant potential advantage inevitably prompted many to question whether they’re preparing to leave F1 entirely. The team insists they are not – but teams rarely declare they are up for sale.

Will a new owner take a majority stake in Alpine?

  • No (17%)
  • Yes (83%)

Total Voters: 184

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Cadillac confirmed

FOM could not have been clearer about its opposition to expanding the F1 grid, and there was palpable reluctance in its confirmation that the Cadillac-branded entry founded by Andretti had gained an agreement in principle to join the grid next year. Will FOM really let them in, or will they find another obstacle to prevent the newcomers arriving?

Will Cadillac secure its place on the 2026 F1 grid?

  • No (9%)
  • Yes (91%)

Total Voters: 186

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I say

Lawson wasn’t Red Bull’s first choice to replace Perez – they wanted Daniel Ricciardo, but he didn’t produce the goods. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the beginning of a new cycle of young talent passing through their doors until they find a new Verstappen, and if Red Bull thought Lawson could be that, he’d have been in F1 long ago. I’d be surprised if he’s still in their car next year.

Similarly, Doohan was not Briatore’s first choice, and he appears to be calling the shots, so I expect Colapinto will be in before the end of the year. Alpine won’t sell up, though, as I suspect F1 team values will continue to rise.

Over the first half of the season Verstappen won’t need to perform the kind of risky moves which earned him so many penalty points last year, so he’ll avoid a ban. I also suspect he’ll eke out enough of a points lead to avoid another final-round title-decider.

The opportunity offered by the 2026 regulations is so great one team will over-spend, but whether it’s intentional or otherwise will be a matter of dispute. Although the FIA election is a long way off and a lot could change between now and then, at the moment I’d narrowly tip Ben Sulayem to win.

I don’t expect FOM will find a way to stop Cadillac coming in, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they do try to introduce reverse-grid sprint races again, partly out of a concern that next year’s racing could be more processional if one team gains an advantage under the new rules. I also suspect they will succumb to temptation and add a 25th round for next year.



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Keith Collantine
Lifelong motor sport fan Keith set up RaceFans in 2005 - when it was originally called F1 Fanatic. Having previously worked as a motoring...

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45 comments on “Verstappen banned? Alpine sold? Which of these 2025 predictions will come true?”

  1. These polls are useless. People won’t vote what they think will happen, they vote what they hope will happen. It is basically a wishlist.

    1. Luckily you’re also not meant to be taking such a lighthearted thing seriously, so you can just have fun voting for whatever.

    2. Well, I personally voted what I thought would happen and generally ended up in the majority or an even split; the only thing where the majority disagrees is that I don’t think renault will sell, but as keith also thinks that, you never know!

    3. El Pollo Loco
      19th January 2025, 13:41

      +1

      “What do you hope will happen in 2025?” Now, the results make more sense.

    4. Who knows. There’s no way to know who voted or why.

      Some questions are quite odd since there’s no relevant information in the public sphere (budget cap, FIA presidency) while others link to ongoing discussions about which it’s perfectly possible to have an ‘informed guess’ regardless of one’s own views.

    5. Nonsense. I voted for Sulayem being reelected even though I think he’s a terrible FIA president. Also for Colapinto replacing Doohan mid season even though it’s not fair on Doohan. But this is a team run by one of the worst people ever to be a part of F1(and that’s some statement given the competition). Fairness is just a meaningless word to the crook of crooks briatore.

      So these are just 2 examples from the above list.
      In short your argument has no merit. You basically claim that people are stupid like that. Well maybe you vote like that but that doesn’t mean everyone is.

      1. El Pollo Loco
        19th January 2025, 19:52

        Your comments about Briatore show you must have quite a meager knowledge of F1 history to call him one of the worst people to ever be part of the sport (considering we’ve had literal Nazis, drug dealers and people convicted of other serious crimes both run teams and at the highest positions of F1 and the FIA). Meanwhile, Briatore’s list of crimes include what? Crashgate? A one-off cheat with the goal of saving the team. Yet we’ve had teams cheat for an entire seasons at a time. So, what is your excuse for this kind of accusation? (which sounds like something someone reading The Daily Mail in 2009 would say)

        1. El Pollo Loco, Briatore’s list of crimes includes multiple convictions for fraud and, for an extended period of time, he was a wanted fugitive after absconding from prison to avoid having to serve one of his prison sentences. It’s why he spent an extended period of time in the Virgin Islands, and it was the proceeds of those criminal activities that gave him the money he needed to operate franchises for Benetton.

          There were also some questions about Briatore potentially getting mixed up with the mafia in the past too, with two of his associates suspected of links to the Cosa Nostra, and questions over whether one driver whom Briatore allowed to test a Benetton F1 car may have been the son of a mafia member (with the suggestion that may have been linked to the bombing of Briatore’s London residence in 1993).

      2. He’s not one of the worst, he’s just one of the few who have been caught cheating, as Jordan once said, in F1 dog eat dog.

        1. El Pollo Loco
          22nd January 2025, 22:27

          Exactly. These takes are naive and media driven.

    6. The future is always a wishlist.

    7. Marcel

      People won’t vote what they think will happen, they vote what they hope will happen.

      I don’t doubt that this will be what some people do. In fact I’d argue many if not all of the polls are skewed in some way or another (the number of 10/10 and 1/10 races for example), but I specifically voted what I thought would happen whilst being conscious in a number of cases that I was going ‘against’ what I wanted to happen, and I doubt I was alone.

      Regardless, the polls are surely not ‘useless’ if one has some enjoyment in the process of responding?

    8. Like @esploratore1 I tried to answer these questions as it would I think would happens.

      If you answer these questions as you hope then you kid yourself and will be very unhappy in 2025.

  2. A few points:
    – Can’t see the title fight going down to the wire. With such a long season, I find it more likely for the championship(s) to be wrapped up before the finale.
    – Surely Ben Sulayem will get another stint in the office. Most likely no one will challenge him.

    1. Not only would I be surprised to see the title fight going down to the wire, it’s not even guaranteed we get a competitive season, I think many people are letting themselves get carried away by the season we just got.

      1. Agreed: we were really lucky that the stars signed to give us a great 2024. It might happen again, but history shows it is far from guaranteed.

    2. @kaiie there have been several observers saying that the current election system heavily favours the incumbent candidate, and because several people many also fear that, if they vote against him, Sulayem will retaliate against them and the member organisations they represent, they expect nobody will dare to run against him.

      When it comes to nominating candidates, you do not just nominate a candidate for the presidency – you have to submit a list of candidates to fill multiple senior roles at the FIA at the same time, with individuals voting for the list of candidates and not just for the presidency. It is a system that rewards the incumbent president’s patronage, as there is a strong incentive for those already in those senior positions to ensure that their member organisations keep voting for the current candidate to stay in power and ensure that Sulayem favours them.

      There is also an element of Sulayem being able to use other external factors to help win favour. DP World, which is run by Sulayem’s family, has been rather active in Rwanda in the past couple of years and has quite a few government contracts to improve the infrastructure network in Rwanda – it is perhaps not a coincidence that relations between the FIA and Rwanda have been rather friendly in recent years and that talk of an F1 race in Rwanda has been popping up recently.

  3. I don’t think we’ll see many championships go down to the wire with the number of races we run currently. The more races that are run, the more sprints that will be run, it’s going to become increasingly rare for two drivers to take it down to the last race. It requires a specific set of circumstances for two teams to be near equal, with then two drivers so far ahead of the rest of the pack to not have anyone else matter. It’s just going to be a once in a decade (or two decades) type of deal. Every other championship will be decided with 3 to 5 races to go. Just the nature of having too many races.

    As for MBS getting re-elected. It appears the actual people that get a vote, i.e. the regional heads of motoring clubs around the world absolutely adore this guy for some reason (I will let you guess at the obvious reason they seem to love him so much), so a re-election seems more inevitable than debatable.

    1. The reason is not obvious enough for someone apolitical like me.

    2. Why not say it if it’s so obvious? There is a lot of misunderstanding, and wilful misinformation, about the role of the FIA president. The FIA is not just about F1, no matter how much F1 commentators and F1 bosses want to make it so.

      A lot of things go into the FIA election, and the manifestos are freely available online. Ben Sulayem has made a big push to make the FIA a more global organization, and to support regional motorsport and reduce costs. Indeed, his ‘FIA for Members’ campaign garnered widespread support (over 60%); including from Motorsport UK, the British motorsport member organization.

  4. Lawson: I think he’ll do ok. He only has to perform better than Perez to be considered a relative success and he can fall back on being a rookie… There aren’t any obvious replacements either.

    Championship going to final race: Usually before a rule change, we get a closer season but with so many races and sprints etc, it’s more likely it doesn’t happen.

    Verstappen banned: I can’t see it. Max drives to exploit the rules to the fullest. If he knows a crash might result in a ban, he’ll adjust his driving even if he says he won’t.

    Ben Sulayem: I don’t see why not. Fans may not like him but they don’t get a vote. I don’t know how popular he is with the people that matter but I’ve heard nothing to suggest he won’t get another 4 years.

    Longer calendar: They’ll certainly try. It depends if the teams can stop it from happening.

    Colapinto/Doohan: It’d hard to judge Doohan at this point. I think he’ll do ok though. Colapinto did well this season but not incredibly well.

    Budget Cap: No. the teams know what they’re doing now.

    Reverse Sprint: I think the teams would reject it. It’ll be proposed though.

    Alpine: Eventually but I think they’ll stick around for another few years.

    Cadillac: Yeah. No reason to doubt it.

    1. About verstappen, it’s not just that, it’s just like disqualifying drivers from championship: they dq’d schumacher from 2nd in 1997, but would they had dared if he won?

      So they banned magnussen cause he was a midfield driver in a midfield car, but would they dare with a championship contender and mess with the championship battle?

      1. Magnussen was interesting, because they appeared to let him off a couple of times before caving to the inevitable.

        Would they let a championship contender off in the same way, or would they (for once) apply the rules consistently to make a point they don’t bow to pressure?

        Verstappen would do well to avoid finding out.

      2. It was clear the FIA stewards were cowed into not giving Gasly penalty points he more than needed by the combined PR campaigns of Renault and Red Bull (this happened during his switch from Red Bull II to Alpine), as well as the constant complaining by the F1 media about penalty points because controversy sells, I guess.

        But the Magnussen ban might have eased some tension as it turned out to be a fairly meaningless affair. There wasn’t a lot of outcry, there was a replacement ready to go, and he came back and it was just like normal. I hope they’ll continue to give penalty points, and if that results in a ban – so be it. It’s not their fault that a driver keeps doing silly things. Twelve points is a lot. To even be close to twelve is already a sign that a driver needs to up his game.

      3. They (Max Mosley) banned Schumacher for 2 races in 1994 and kept the title fight alive. The FIA might do the same this year.

  5. I’m more then confident an overspend of that amount was not unintentional, they certainly wouldn’t have had so many pitiful excuses if it was. Unless the FIA intends to properly punish teams doing that in future I can see them trying it again considering the potentially insurmountable advantage it can gain.

    1. potentially insurmountable advantage

      Several years on, this still gets brought up.

      If 1.8 million pounds give you an insurmountable advantage:

      Was there no team in the pre-cost cap era that spent at least 1.8 million more than the others? Did they always wipe the floor with everyone else?

      Why was there no other team that thought, ‘hey, a 1.8 million overspend and we can be kings for years to come, let’s brave the consequences’?

      A couple of major crashes may cost more than 1.8 million in F1. Is it really so hard to accept, no matter how strongly one dislikes Red Bull, that this amount of overspend probably meant nothing in terms of how successful they have been the past couple of years?

      1. It’s quite clear it did, and it’s always dismissed in the same way. £1.8mil in development can go a long way and also means you keep that advantage as, thanks to the budget cap, others can’t spend more to catch up. It’s no different to someone getting a 1 second head start in a 100m dash, sure it’s not much but it’s still a full second everyone else has to make up and if all runners are equal and going at full speed then the advantage is insurmountable.

        1. A full second advantage is a full second advantage.
          A 1.8 mil development is an unknown and not a guarantee that the development works.
          The example is not valid.

          Other than that, the overspent was 400K not 1.8 mil and the damage caused by Mercedes at Silverstone and in Hungary is much higher than the 400K.

          A big deal over nothing just to push a narrative.

          1. Is not the size of the overspend. For if you allow “insignificant” overspend you need to draw the line somewhere. Is the line at $2M? $3M? $4M?

            For clarity sake the line is at $0. Even a $1 overspend is an overspend.

            Where would you draw the line?

          2. @Gerrit.

            Oh I agree you have to draw a line somewhere and yes it should be zero.
            They are also rightfully punished.

            But saying they won 2022-2024 because of the 400K overspend is pushing a false narrative in my opinion.

        2. It’s no different to someone getting a 1 second head start in a 100m dash

          In fact, it is completely different.

          1 sec in a 100m dash would mean a full 10% advantage during the race itself. It’s like allowing Red Bull to start every grand prix 5-7 laps earlier than everyone else. Now that would be insurmountable, indeed.

          On the other hand, the 1.8 million is more like one of the sprinters getting 3 extra training days in a year. Sure, it does not hurt, but definitely would not provide an insurmountable advantage.

          Make no mistake, I am not saying it was OK to spend more, just that it does not explain at all why Red Bull ran away with most of the titles in this era.

          1. El Pollo Loco
            19th January 2025, 22:44

            According to this guy’s choice, Toyota dominated F1 before dropping out. How many titles did Toyota win?

  6. I’m thinking that Calopinto will probably replace Doohan for a race or 2, but not permanently. How do I vote?

    1. Simply click ‘yes’ or ‘no’ below each question.

      1. Excellent.

      2. El Pollo Loco
        19th January 2025, 13:43

        I think he meant does that mean yes, no or a third option.

      3. Tell us that you are on the spectrum without saying you are on the spectrum.

        1. El Pollo Loco
          19th January 2025, 22:46

          Unnecessary and silly.

  7. Yes – This can go either way around, but I have confidence he won’t flop.

    Yes – As the season should be similarly tight at the top as the last season was from Miami GP onwards, I’m positive the WDC won’t get clinched any earlier.

    No – I’m positive he’ll manage to avoid receiving any more, let alone reach 12 until the next occasion of losing penalty points.

    Yes – I barely see any reason the majority would vote against him or any other viable candidate proving massively better.

    No – Firstly, nothing will change as long as Domenicali doesn’t say anything differently as he wouldn’t say the same thing over & over again if he didn’t truly mean it, given his position, which would be under threat if he caused distrust to teams.
    Secondly, the present situation is different than, for example, when 20 was the GP amount for the first time as at the time, teams weren’t struggling with the general manageability of covering high GP amounts or close to their rotation availability limit, so incomparable, & therefore, making assumptions is pointless, especially as all teams, let alone the championship itself, are in a perfect overall financial situation, so third-parties should simply show trust towards him.

    Yes – Doohan’s performance level will certainly matter early on, but due to the buyout fee & Argentine sponsors, I’ve started to think that further into the season, he might get replaced by Colapinto anyway regardless of performance level, so I predict that’ll happen during the summer break.

    No – I’m sure all teams will manage this year, but next year is another matter.

    No – I highly doubt anything will change regarding this matter.

    Yes – I ultimately decided to choose ‘yes’ as a relatively bold prediction to try my luck.

    Yes – A mere formality, so merely thinking about this aspect is rather pointless.

  8. Stephen Taylor
    19th January 2025, 13:49

    I am surprised Keith thinks Verstappen will win this years championship! There is a strong possibility I think that Ferrari and McLaren will be a long way ahead of everybody I think Can I ask him why he thinks this given Red Bull’s car performance fell of acliff after Miami . Given that Verstappen won only 1 of the last 14 Grand Prixs of the season if Red Bulls . Verstappen might win a race or two but given their trajectory in technical terms relative to Ferrrari and McLaren i’d be amazed if the championship isn’t just between the McLaren and Ferrari drivers tbh.

    1. El Pollo Loco
      19th January 2025, 22:48

      Media and many fans tend to assume who has won in the past will win in the future. Look how long it took them to accept Mercedes and Hamilton wasn’t about to burst back into a dominant position after 2021.

  9. Seems like I ended up with the majority in I think all but the ‘Alpine’ vote (where I appear to be significantly against the grain). Though, of course, my synergy does not really increase my chances of being correct. In most cases though, it seems the most probable outcomes have been chosen. There is always rooms for surprises though.

    Most notable for me is Keith’s comment that almost suggests the WDC is a foregone conclusion. It may turn out to be the runaway win he predicts, but I cannot quite understand how it is anything like as obvious as has been inferred.

    As an aside (And it may be a little much to ask) but with these multiple vote polls, and given that I was on the fence with a couple, it would be nice to be able to visually identify which way I voted after my vote is cast. I understand that this is what my memory is for, but sadly it is not what it once was.

  10. Lawson: Yes, Red Bull don’t have any other option as they seem determined not to promote Tsunoda.

    Championship going to final race: No, Norris proved last year that he is a bottle merchant and the other leading drivers (i.e. Verstappen, Hamilton and Leclerc) if given a competitive car will be able to close out a championship before the last race.

    Verstappen banned: He won’t change his style, but banning the reigning world champion is a bad look commercially so I don’t see it happening.

    Ben Sulayem: The fans and drivers don’t matter, if he has the support of the clubs he’ll get in again. I’ve seen nothing to suggest that any other credible candidate exists to dethrone him.

    Longer calendar: Money talks, so yes.

    Colapinto/Doohan: Yes, Briatore’s first choice wasn’t Doohan and that man is cold blooded. Colapinto will be in as soon as Doohan’s contract allows it.

    Budget Cap: Absolutely not.

    Reverse Sprint: No, the teams won’t allow it.

    Alpine: Yes, Briatore has a clear mandate so he will deliver.

    Cadillac: Yes.

Comments are closed.