Six drivers will embark on their first full Formula 1 seasons this year – the most newcomers since 2013.
Half of the half-dozen don’t have a single start to their names yet, while the other three have already experienced the thrill of lining up on a grand prix grid at least once.But all of them are striving for the same goal: to secure their place at the pinnacle of motorsport. Which of them has the best chance of staying there?
Liam Lawson
Previous F1 grand prix starts: 11
Liam Lawson is Red Bull’s latest attempt to solve the thorny problem of who belongs in a Formula 1 team alongside Max Verstappen. He is the first member of their young driver programme to get the opportunity since mid-2019.
Red Bull’s sudden faith in Lawson makes it all the more curious that they passed up previous opportunities to give him more F1 experience, particularly at the start of 2023, when they initially placed him in Japan’s Super Formula series and gave a seat at their second team to outsider Nyck de Vries.
The return of Daniel Ricciardo later that year kept Lawson queued up waiting even longer for valuable F1 seat time. As a result, he will spend his first races alongside Verstappen learning several unfamiliar tracks.
Given that, will Red Bull be more patient with Lawson than they were with the likes of Gasly? If not, given this team’s track record, expect mid-season speculation about a potential swap with either of the Racing Bulls drivers, or even someone else.
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Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Previous F1 grand prix starts: 0
George Russell, Antonelli’s new team mate, had to serve three years’ apprenticeship at Williams before getting his chance. His predecessor Valtteri Bottas did four (and only got his chance in 2017 because Nico Rosberg walked out after winning the championship).
However Mercedes have taken great care both to downplay expectations of Antonelli ahead of his debut and ensure he has had the maximum possible seat time ahead of it. He began a programme driving their older F1 cars last year. His crash five laps into his first appearance in an F1 practice session did nothing to deter Mercedes – he was confirmed as Lewis Hamilton’s replacement the very next day.
The team has shown every indication it will take its time over bedding in Antonelli, who stands to be the third-youngest F1 driver of all time. That will go some way towards easing the pressure on him, but this nonetheless a huge ask for a rookie, especially if Mercedes produce a potentially race-winning car.
Jack Doohan
Previous F1 grand prix starts: 1
Alpine announced Doohan’s promotion in August last year. But soon afterwards Franco Colapinto’s debut at Williams caught the eye, and rumours followed that Alpine were keen to secure his services, potentially as a race driver. Last month Alpine announced they had reached a deal with Williams to bring Colapinto on board as their third reserve driver in addition to Paul Aron and Ryo Hirakawa.
Doohan was handed the chance to make his F1 debut one race early in last year’s finale. But Alpine consultant Flavio Briatore’s damning-with-faint-praise assessment “for the first race it was okay” will have been ringing in Doohan’s ears throughout the off-season.
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Oliver Bearman
Previous F1 grand prix starts: 3
The first of those came at the punishing Jeddah Corniche Circuit as an 11th-hour replacement for Carlos Sainz Jnr at no less a team than Ferrari. Bearman, still only 18 at the time, passed his first test in style.
He already knows Haas well, having started two races for them and appeared in several practice sessions. He can expect to find himself in the cut and thrust of the midfield, but last year’s experience of the pressures of a real race weekend will be invaluable. His former F2 team mate Antonelli may have landed a top drive for his debut, but Bearman has the chance to play himself in at a midfield team while backers Ferrari keep an eye on his progress.
Isack Hadjar
Previous F1 grand prix starts: 0
Isack Hadjar’s CV lacks the conspicuous achievement of a junior championship title, but he showed plenty of pace in Formula 2 last year and some poor luck harmed his bid for the crown.
However, this is Red Bull, so he will experience pressure from all sides. He is up against a driver with four years’ experience who is burning to show Red Bull erred by overlooking him. And coming up behind him is Arvid Lindblad, who is poised to clinch the Formula Regional Oceania championship before making his Formula 2 debut, and has already been talked up by the Red Bull top brass.
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Gabriel Bortoleto
Previous F1 grand prix starts: 0
Gabriel Bortoleto therefore faces less pressure than some rookies. But Bortoleto, previously a McLaren junior driver, is up against a tricky team mate in Nico Hulkenberg. If the Sauber is no more competitive than it was last year, the driver who enters F1 with back-to-back junior titles to his name will have to be content with fighting for scraps in his first season.
Over to you
Which of F1’s six rookies do you have the highest expectations of? Share your views in the comments.
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Esploratore (@esploratore1)
6th February 2025, 7:41
Let’s see, I think lawson might be decent enough to keep the red bull seat, but unimpressive, a perez 2021, maybe not even that; I don’t consider antonelli the next verstappen, but maybe with enough experience he could be matching russell eventually.
Doohan will probably be destroyed by gasly, which will give briatore sufficient excuses to replace him with colapinto.
I suppose bearman and bortoleto will match their experienced team mates, and hadjar will fail to match tsunoda, just like it happened to his predecessors and might be at risk, although since tsunoda himself could leave, I’m not sure hadjar would also be replaced in that case.
barkun (@barkun)
6th February 2025, 7:48
perfectly summed
elchinero (@elchinero)
11th February 2025, 9:40
Good comment, Esp …
El Pollo Loco
6th February 2025, 7:52
Agreed with all of that, except I think Ocon will handle OB easily. I except Hulk to beat GB, but by an amount that will be considered acceptable or encouraging.
MacLeod (@macleod)
6th February 2025, 7:58
That is also what I am thinking while Jack is the one who is the most under pressure if he doesn’t preform he is gone after 6 races.
Jonathan Parkin
6th February 2025, 10:46
I honestly feel both Jack and Liam are being set up to fail.
Alpine clearly want Franco in the car, so they will do everything they can to ensure that happens. Similarly Red Bull don’t want Liam to beat Max, anymore than Ferrari wanted Eddie Irvine to beat Michael back in the day
MacLeod (@macleod)
7th February 2025, 7:52
Liam beats Max after 11 races are you on something? No It’s because Yuki is an Honda driver and that why he is next to Max.
Maybe you watch the interview with Lawson as he hopes to learn as much from Max but his technic has to improve a lot to keep up with Max. And this he said himself (Lawson) so an threat for Max he isn’t.
MacLeod (@macleod)
7th February 2025, 8:03
And did you saw the picture the cheater posted on insta when Alpine was on the tyre test not Jack was driving no his replacement was……
pcxmac (@pcxmac)
6th February 2025, 17:43
Lawson will suffer like Perez if he’s a mule for VES like Perez was last year, after the mystery change on their car.
Doohan has half a chance, if he can manage to pull his head out of his bum, and channel what ever of his Dad is in him. Bearman will do pretty good, but the real question is :
is Hadjar or Bortoleto the better of the two, and really the only two ‘rookies’ worth watching this year, I think. Everyone else pretty much has a track to follow. If Hadjar is faster than Tsunoda, it’s gonna get real.
Fingers crossed Russell gets to jump ship to McLaren.
Coventry Climax
6th February 2025, 21:36
Well, the correct answer to the headline is quite simple: All six of them will either sink or swim.
El Pollo Roco
6th February 2025, 7:47
I see pain in the futures of Hadjar, Lawson and Doohan. In the case of the first, I’ll be rooting for it.
Greg
6th February 2025, 21:11
I think there will be a lot of money coming from the middle east to keep Hadjar in F1 for some time
wsrgo (@wsrgo)
7th February 2025, 17:38
Algeria is not in the Middle East though.
Urvaksh (@thedoctor03)
7th February 2025, 17:56
LOLOL
El Pollo Loco
8th February 2025, 3:47
Sure it is. It’s just a bit west and a different continent.
In all seriousness, he was probably referring to the fact most Algerians are Arab and therefore why there would be backing come from the ME.
elchinero (@elchinero)
11th February 2025, 9:43
“Hodor”
El Pollo Loco
6th February 2025, 7:50
I foresee discomfort in the future of Hadjar, Lawson and Doohan. In the case of the first, I’ll be rooting for it.
David BR (@david-br)
6th February 2025, 13:03
“It’s your future… I see… a cab ride!”
Mr Wolf (one f of course)
Nulla Pax (@nullapax)
6th February 2025, 13:44
Say that one more time.
I dares ya – I double dares ya! ;)
Coventry Climax
7th February 2025, 10:31
Torger Christian “Toto” Wolff – Austrian, two f’s, British based German team.
Christian Edward Johnston Horner – British, no f’s ;-) , British based Austrian team.
They share a first name, though.
El Pollo Loco
8th February 2025, 3:49
*sorry for the essentially duplicate post. Not sure why the first one was held up for “boderating.” I changed the post slightly and it went through right away (sometimes it takes 3+ days for something to be approved).
EffWunFan (@cairnsfella)
6th February 2025, 8:04
I started formulating a response based upon my limited understanding of the history of these guys, however on rechecking the race results from last year’s F2 it seems my ‘gut’ is at odds with the standings of those that participated. Regardless I’ll still include a subset of my thoughts.
In terms of general thoughts: Not a Hadjar fan (so far) so currently don’t care how he does. Would be surprised if Antonelli does anything spectacular this year. I’m not even sure I’d tip him for F2 champion if he’d stayed there. Not saying he couldn’t, nor that his potential isn’t high but just feel he is being moved up a tiny bit quickly.
Re: Sink or Swim: Doohan is clearly the safest bet in the ‘sink’ stakes. If Red Bull apply the same standards to Lawson as they did Perez, he should be able to stay at home for half the races and still keep his seat. Would potentially imagine the remainder may see out the season.
Re:
Might I suggest ‘A quarter dozen‘ as an alternative. Or maybe….. at a push ‘three’.
Or, if I am missing the point then perhaps “Two to the power of five minus two divided by ten of the half-dozen don’t have a single start to their names yet”
Jeanrien (@jeanrien)
6th February 2025, 8:29
Mercedes can downplay the expectations all they want, they might suffer the Williams experience.
I think that with the complexity of the cars, the development requires two steady drivers, avoid crashes, be able to compare upgrades to other references and so on.
Williams mentioned not being able to upgrade due to cost of crashes, but in addition their line up was not optimal for development. This might hurt Mercedes as well except if they take the RedBull approach and base everything on one driver feedback, which is not without caveat.
That said, I also think Sainz will benefit Williams hugely in the development race, to be alongside Albon. With their budget, Mercedes can “afford” to crash and develop, even if the budget cap definitely change the picture a bit. Williams couldn’t.
Antonelli, while deserving a seat might be under more pressure than he would want. Not on the driver at risk list, but the first few races might be more important than what is told.
BasCB (@bascb)
6th February 2025, 8:34
I think Bearman will be fine, unless he suddenly turns into being crashprone. Bortoleto – given the car, the expectations will be low enough that he’ll be fine too. Antonelli – Mercedes will keep him shielded from much pressure, I’d think, unless something seriously goes wrong for him.
Doohan? Well, it’s Alpine. And Briatore is there. He will probably see rumours about being dropped come up as soon as they start testing (but then, who knows which team members leave the team during that period as well). The Red Bull guys? Yeah, pressure will probably already be ramping up on them. Not conductive for development, and not pleasant to watch, but hey, that’s Red Bull and they might not have had any chance at all without RB/Marko backing them, so they will have to take what they get.
El Pollo Loco
8th February 2025, 14:10
Not sure how you can shield Antonelli from pressure while he’s in a Mercedes. If he’s getting badly beaten by George or crashing a lot, nothing they say will be able to keep pressure off him. All they can do is minimize it by setting low expectations and saying they don’t expect him to beat George more than once in a blue moon. And, like I said, that’ll only fractionally reduce pressure.
Jere (@jerejj)
6th February 2025, 8:52
Judging beforehand is difficult, but I think Antonelli if anyone, has the highest chance of struggling due to his relatively limited single-seater experience, which makes his readiness to even compete in F1 yet questionable.
Therefore, starting directly in a top team is certainly a comparatively riskier scenario than switching to such a team after 11 GPs.
Ultimately, any of them can just as equally succeed as they could fail.
I’m positive this sextuplet can perform at least decently consistently regardless of how they fare against their respective teammates, & people definitely should stop making definitive conclusions & being overly judgmental about chances beforehand, especially concerning Doohan who definitely isn’t the least ready to compete in F1, albeit the buyout fee & likely incoming Argentine sponsors could make his performance level secondary further into the season, for example, around the summer break.
Michael
6th February 2025, 14:42
The single seater experience is only relevant up to a point. He achieved his superlicense and he’s driven 91 singleseater races according to to Wikipedia. Button and Verstappen had driven about half of that before F1. Alonso and Raikkonen about a quarter of that. Raikkonen had not even progressed beyond Formula Renault. Yes they all became champions but Mercedes wouldn’t sign him if they didn’t think he had that potential.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
7th February 2025, 15:38
It’s not “definitive judgement”, it’s guesswork, we make predictions on what we think will happen and then depending on how a driver performs we’ll check here and say “I told you so!”, “ohh, you were right” and stuff like this.
Bullfrog (@bullfrog)
6th February 2025, 9:54
Lawson hardly counts as a newcomer but swim; Swimi, Glug, Swim, Swim, Swim.
One thing all these guys have got going for them is each other. With all these drivers finding their feet in F1 (plus the occasional experienced one messing up) they have somebody to beat.
Christopher Rehn (@chrischrill)
6th February 2025, 10:58
I think Bortoletto may surprise some people. I hope Antonelli has what it takes despite his perhaps premature rise to F1 frontrunner. Other than that, I think Bearman and Doohan will struggle, I don’t truly see Lawson as a rookie anymore, and Hadjar is only there because Racing Bulls need two drivers and is likely replaced by Lindblad in 2026 at latest.
David BR (@david-br)
6th February 2025, 13:07
In terms of talent, Antonelli and Bortoletto. But in terms of placement in terms, they’ve probably got the toughest asks. Still, if they’re truly future prospects, time for Antonelli to replicate what Hamilton achieved in 2007 joining a top team as a rookie, or Bortoletto the promise that Vettel, Verstappen and Leclerc quickly showed in junior teams. In terms of the others, Lawson has one job to do and it isn’t compete for the WDC. Should be OK then. The others I don’t know and, TBH, I’m not really bothered either way.
Nulla Pax (@nullapax)
6th February 2025, 13:59
Basically I am expecting the usual rookie hotchpotch of flashes of brilliance coupled with silly basic errors from all of them.
I only really know of Bearman from his performance last season.
Lawson and Antonelli didn’t grab my attention in their appearances but so what – they are Rookies.
Doohan and Bortoleto I truly know nothing about.
As for Hadjar – I only know of him from one free practice session towards the end of last season.
He came across as a nasty, whiney, cry-baby to be honest.
So many Rookies can only make for entertainment though.
I do look forwards to the radio comments from the old hands …. especially Fernando :)
Adam (@rocketpanda)
6th February 2025, 14:13
I think Doohan’s out regardless of what he does, which I think is unfair on him to be honest. Bearman/Antonelli I think could have done with more time but I think they’ll be fine while unimpressive. Hadjar I expect to struggle and is probably here too early and given where Sauber are I figure it doesn’t matter what Bortoleto does, he could be amazing and still qualify last. Lawson I think has the roughest time though, the highest scrutiny and an uphill struggle to establish himself and I don’t think he’s good enough for it – I’m expecting Kvyat, very good on his day but ultra prone to mistakes on any other and probably most unfortunately for him not being a huge upgrade on Albon/Gasly/Perez.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
7th February 2025, 19:33
If doohan performs really well, he will ofc attract the attention of other teams, I think alpine would receive a lot of criticism if they fired a driver despite performing.
As for lawson being an upgrade on the previous team mates, it’s difficult to say, because albon and gasly were performing well below their usual level when they were at red bull, and perez 2021 was performing much better than perez 2023 or 2024, so it depends which year you take.
I’m pretty sure red bull would be ok with a perez-2021 performance, even if not impressive: if they wanted more than that they should’ve hired sainz or alonso.
Stephen Taylor
6th February 2025, 14:16
I think that Bearman could end up being an overhyped disappointment . I think Ocon will beat him quite easily. Antonelli will be up and down . Bortoleto will probably be hampered by poor car. Doohan will be replaced by Colapinto sooner than later
Red Andy (@red-andy)
7th February 2025, 8:01
Bearman’s record in the junior categories suggests he will have some really good days and some other days where he is either nowhere pace-wise or makes silly errors. In other words he’s perfect for a midfield team like Haas, where a good day means you’re scoring points and a bad day means you’re pretty anonymous in the back half of the field.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
7th February 2025, 19:35
That’s true, a driver with highs and lows should be better in such a team than a driver like bottas, who is consistent but his highs aren’t usually that spectacular and don’t bring as many points.
Pinak Ghosh (@pinakghosh)
6th February 2025, 15:11
With six rookies, I am looking forward to lots of crashes. Perhaps the teams have already factored that in their annual budget. If that is the case, gaps between teams at the beginning of the year would be crucial as late development is unlikely even if it is very tight at the front. Among the six, Lawson, Doohan and Hadjar are likely to be under the most pressure. With a team comprising Tsunoda and Hadjar, I feel for the RB engineers.
MacLeod (@macleod)
7th February 2025, 8:11
Lawson strange enough I don’t expect a lot of crashes from him as there is no pressure then keep the car intact as he has to go on a learning year …
Kimi and Bearman will try to get close to their teammate so highly likely they will crash a lot.
Doohan has to beat gasly to keep his seat for the whole year so expect a lot of crashes
Hadjar seemly a hothead behind a steeringwheel the most …
Gabriel … no idea at all but theSauber car isn’t a really fast car so overdriving the car could get a lot of crashes.
Tony Mansell (@tonymansell)
6th February 2025, 15:16
In a terrible shoe horned comment bringing to mind a notorious US trial from 30 years ago.
Thats certainly the case for Lawson and Antonelli who will look very poor if there are cars struggle in qually
Zach Bigalke (@bigalke)
7th February 2025, 11:24
+1 white Ford Bronco
Alonslow
6th February 2025, 15:38
Sink: Lawson, Doohan, Hadjar
Swim: Antonelli, Bortoleto, Bearman
Sinkers:
Lawson, not good enough for the main Red Bull team, I think he will be no better than Albon was, so he may very well ‘swim’ this season because Tsunoda is never gonna be given the chance, but he’s a stop gap for Lindblad so he’s gonna ‘sink’ eventually.
Doohan, I think there is consensus about him not being that good and with Briatore back in business, we are all waiting for that news about him being dropped for Colapinto.
Hadjar, stopgap for Lindblad, may keep his seat if Tsunoda is gone in 2026 or if he destroys Yuki.
Swimmers:
Antonelli, looked better than Bearman but not elite as he didn’t fight for the championship, his test drives were bad, but he’s very young and Mercedes knows that so as long as he doesn’t make a Logan Sargeant and he improves every race, he should be safe for 2026 and beyond.
Bortoleto, I don’t have Hulk as this incredible driver, surely he has pace some saturdays but it usually goes awry on sunday, he has the most GP without a podium for a reason, so I expect Bortoleto to do pretty good against him, maybe Hulk beats him overall but Bortoleto should have the better peaks, as the latest rookie champion of both F3 and F2 since Piastri he needs to deliver what is expected of him, being a star.
Bearman, not amazing but not bad, he’s worse than Antonelli at least in F2, but not miles away, and since it’s Haas and not the Ferrari main team, I don’t see Ferrari dropping him anytime soon, not like Ferrari has incredible rookies in their program anyway.
This is the way I see it, of course they could all be great, or all crap, or maybe Doohan is a surprise championship contender, who knows, anyway it’s gonna be a fun season no matter what thanks to all the rookies.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
7th February 2025, 19:55
Doohan already proved in his first race that he won’t be a surprise championship contender and bearman already proved he’s not hopeless, but otherwise I agree with the comment in general.
El Pollo Loco
10th February 2025, 9:59
+1
On the fence about OB, but I agree with your list.
mantresx (@mantresx)
6th February 2025, 16:57
We could’ve also added Colapinto to the list, we all know he’ll be on the grid by Miami GP at the latest.
ryanoceros (@ryanoceros)
6th February 2025, 20:38
Bearman, Doohan, and Lawson have already made their F1 debuts and won’t be rookies.
Bearman will do well.
Doohan won’t get a chance before being replaced by a certain Argentinian driver.
Lawson will do better than Perez.
Bortoleto will have the same fate as Zhou. Never had the car to show what he can do and passed over for another rookie who shows promise.
Antonelli is the big unknown.
MichaelN
6th February 2025, 22:56
No idea, and that’s great. Very pleased to see so many fresh faces on the grid. Hopefully they all do well (enough), as that should give team bosses the confidence to keep giving youngsters a chance in the future.
Philip Roden
7th February 2025, 9:59
Recent drivers who smashed through F3 and F2 as champs in first season:
Charles Leclerc
George Russell
Oscar Piastri
Gabriel Bortoleto
Surely expecting big things from Bortoleto?
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
7th February 2025, 19:59
Yes, he should be a top driver-ish, based on his junior performance, if that translates directly into f1 he should beat hulkenberg by some margin.
El Pollo Loco
10th February 2025, 10:00
Good point.
Dane
7th February 2025, 14:03
There’s been so much hype around Antonelli that there seems to be a backlash and I see a lot of people predicting a disappointing year for him. I don’t think Mercedes take such a big gamble on a rookie if there was nothing there. I think he’ll be like Verstappen in 2015 where there’s mistakes but also a lot of promise of great things ahead.
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
7th February 2025, 20:02
By comparison, mercedes were really slow on russell, who seemed to be great and still turned out to be a top driver, if not as good as it looked at first.
FlyingLap (@flyinglapp)
7th February 2025, 23:25
Russell will be under the most pressure. He’ll have be better than he’s ever been to keep up with Antonelli for the whole year.
David BR (@david-br)
9th February 2025, 0:51
I agree.