Max Verstappen has played down his chances of winning the season-opening race for the third year in a row after assessing Red Bull’s performance in pre-season testing.
The reigning world champion, who won two of the final four races of last season, named McLaren as the favourites to win in Australia next week.“There’s work to do,” Verstappen told Viaplay, with whom he has a content deal. “Looking at the lap times, I think McLaren will be the favourite.”
However he expects Red Bull to make swift progress with their new RB21 chassis. “Things didn’t run completely smoothly on our end, but we have some ideas on how to improve,” he said.
“I also spent a lot of time in the simulator, even yesterday with the team. I don’t think we’ll be in the fight for the win in Melbourne, but hopefully we can implement some improvements over the next few races.”
“It’s never good enough, of course, but maybe we expected a bit more from Bahrain. After testing, you have time to analyse the data and draw conclusions. I think things can be optimised further in Melbourne, but as I said, there are still things we need to improve.”
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One significant weakness of Red Bull’s car last year was its performance over bumpy surfaces, a trait which the temporary circuit in Albert Park will put to the test next week. Verstappen said the team still needs to improve in this area.
“In terms of balance, the car feels more ‘together’ from turn-in to mid-corner,” he explained. “But we’re still struggling with kerbs and bumps, which isn’t our strongest point. I keep emphasising that.”
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MichaelN
8th March 2025, 11:07
But it’s also important to note that Verstappen still took pole and was leading despite having an issue that became progressively worse, which led to him being overtaken and then soon after to his retirement. Pérez also followed the Ferrari and McLaren’s home, overtaking and then staying ahead of the Aston and Mercedes cars. So it wasn’t that bad for Red Bull.
I suppose we’ll all find out soon enough how the 2025 cars do relative to each other.
BasCB (@bascb)
9th March 2025, 12:42
Yeah, but it is also very important to note that the McLaren was not really on the same pace they were from Miami onwards last year, while this year they are most likely to start about the level where they finished, making it harder for Max.
PacificPR (@streydt)
8th March 2025, 11:08
I would be really surprised if he doesn’t qualify in the top 5 and fight for the win in the race and even more surprised if he doesn’t take the title as well..
Ben
8th March 2025, 11:11
So it’ll be pole, fastest lap and a 30+ second win then. No one believes a word of these lies. They are at worst second fastest to McLaren.
baasbas
8th March 2025, 12:09
@Ben:
It wasn’t an interview with Toto
Dogs
8th March 2025, 12:26
baasbas is cooking early in the morning
SteveP
8th March 2025, 17:23
Breathe deep, relax and let it go, all that acid and bile isn’t good for you
baasbas
9th March 2025, 20:00
@SteveP
Tongue in cheek, yes. Acid and bile? If you want to read it like that…
My cheeky comment has a point, it I say so myself. One, I think Verstappen is someone who speaks his mind. Whatever is on it. No sugarcoating. So I don’t think he is playing games with the media here.
Two, if you want an example of someone who does play, Toto/Mercedes in their most dominant years were borderline laughable..
Doggy (@doggy)
8th March 2025, 12:48
@baasbas touché
@ben there is no real reason to believe that Ferrari and Merc can be +/- 0.1 s of RB. This is Based on what we have seen in Bahrain and towards the end of last season. Moreover, assuming that Is what you said, second best to McLaren, is not good enough since the papayas can easily be .2/.3 faster than any other car in the field
paulsf1fix
8th March 2025, 12:28
Why do I feel like I don’t believe him? We will see what’s what soon enough, A week to go and at the time of writing this we will know who is on pole position!
Doggy (@doggy)
8th March 2025, 12:37
TBF Max is known for being too honest. Typically he lands on the race where he guess it. Even, sometimes, condraticting what his team/Horner says about RB’s performance
erikje (@erikje)
8th March 2025, 19:37
Too honest is a new one.
Edvaldo
8th March 2025, 13:17
They have been saying they dont stand a chance for months, but they finished the season with a pretty capable car.
This new one has to be a massive misstep for them to be out of contention.
El Pollo Loco
9th March 2025, 2:19
I think where RBR + the qualities the cars have shown sets us up for a great season. It appears that Ferrari has the most quali pace/ease of turning on their tires, but McLaren is easily the fastest in terms of race pace. So, already you have a great setup. Then if we assume Mercedes is as competitive as they look, it gets better yet. Assuming RBR are a few tenths behind the others, it’s safe to assume Max can make up a good part of that deficit and we’ll get to see him doggedly joining the chase. Finally, we’ve got the fascinating inter team battle at Ferrari to watch.
F180 (@f180)
8th March 2025, 15:26
RB needs Lawson to be fast so MV can play mind games with Norris and possibly win. That was the problem with Checo. McLaren teamed up while RB didn’t. However, Ferrari will test this duopoly, and RB will be the first to fall.
Edvaldo
8th March 2025, 15:58
That’s what you get when you only have eyes for one driver.
Lawson said he never even raced on some of the tracks from the earlier part of the season, as both times he took the RB car, it was later in the year, and the junior series doesn’t race in some of them. Yet he’s driving for a top team alongside the four-time WDC and is expected not only to improve over his predecessor but also to help Max by being in the mix.
Coventry Climax
8th March 2025, 18:24
Improving over his predecessor shouldn’t be a bridge too far, now should it?
Edvaldo
8th March 2025, 19:23
It isn’t. But there’s a pretty large gap between doing better than what Perez was doing and being in a position to help Max while offering strategic options for the team by racing closer to him.
FlyingLap (@flyinglapp)
8th March 2025, 15:49
So he’ll spend the race crashing into potential rivals to prevent them winning.
Armchair Expert (@armchairexpert)
8th March 2025, 16:12
Last year McLaren had dominant car in 19 out of 24 races, 80% of the season, yet even with perfect reliability their drivers managed to win only 6 grand prix, which is just shocking if you compare it to 2005, when McLaren which was falling apart every single weekend, still won 10 out of 14 races they were massively superior to Renault (out of 18 race calendar – I don’t count Indy – so also almost 80%).
If in 2025 McLaren is even faster than last year, I don’t think Norris and Piastri will choke wins again. There’s pace advantage that even Max can not overcome. Sure, in 2024 he won the title in a third best car, which was often fourth or fifth best, but what can you do when Norris and Piastri have 0.5s advantage over the rest?
An Sionnach
8th March 2025, 19:09
Nothing. Max isn’t that fast. Unless the long-range forecast is correct and it rains in Melbourne. If it’s a fully wet rain then Max should be the favourite. If it’s partially wet, then… it depends on the McLaren advantage and if they both keep it on track. Maybe Piastri might have the edge over Norris then?
An Sionnach
8th March 2025, 19:36
Fully wet race. Rain itself should always be fully wet!
Esploratore (@esploratore1)
8th March 2025, 19:45
And full wet races are very unlikely in recent times given the cowards governing f1.
An Sionnach
8th March 2025, 22:17
I commend everyone behind the Brazilian GP. They tried to keep the event going with minimum stoppages. Red Bull complained about it due to what happened in qualifying, but I think it’s generally good to avoid neutralising.
Davethechicken
9th March 2025, 0:23
They red flagged the race for *safety* at Brasili when Max and the Alpimes were on very worn inters.
Says it all really.
Edvaldo
8th March 2025, 21:47
Mclaren had the best car for most of the season, but what defines dominant at the end of the day?
They crushed the opposition in 3 or 4 races tops, Hungary, Netherlands, and Singapore. They could’ve won many more than they did, but they lost all those races exactly because they were not that much better than the others and details were enough for those races to be lost.
I do agree that if they happen to be the fastest car again, they’ll win many more races. Norris already had everything he needed to win many races last year but wasted it repeatedly with bad starts and bad decisions at the first lap. If he fixes that, he’ll win a lot, because he has the pace.
anon
8th March 2025, 22:21
Edvaldo, it would seem that poster tends to adjust the definition of what is a dominant car when it suits them, particularly when it comes to teams that they oppose and want to denigrate.
Realistically, as you note, the car was nowhere near as dominant as that poster is trying to claim it was. There’s a pretty clear trend in the circuits that you list, being amongst the slowest circuits on the calendar and with a prevalence of low to medium speed corners, that tended to benefit McLaren, whilst their rivals also tended to struggle for other reasons at those circuits.
Those abnormal results mean that people ended up with a false expectation of McLaren’s performance at other circuits, or with other combinations of tyres and ambient conditions – so, when McLaren didn’t meet those exaggerated expectations, people didn’t question their assumption that McLaren were dominant or think about any sort of nuance, but found it easier to criticise the drivers or the team instead.
BasCB (@bascb)
9th March 2025, 12:44
Especially with the huge difference being that last year Max / Red Bull ramped up their advantage in the first races until McLaren came up to speed, which they will now be very unlikely to be able to do, since the RBR seems to be behind the McLaren on pace already and might have to fight off both Ferrari and Mercedes from the start for podium finishes as well.
Leo B
8th March 2025, 18:50
Let’s hope Jos is happy with all the stirring up he did in a team that was invincible. It was bizarre to watch at the time.
El Pollo Loco
8th March 2025, 23:33
Jos makes Max look like Alex Albon. It was kind of hilarious to see everything Jos did absolutely blow up in his face.
MichaelN
9th March 2025, 0:25
Where does this story come from? Verstappen once said Horner was causing trouble (he was) and that it was a distraction (it was, as others have noted), and that to avoid upending the team, the source of the trouble should go (he didn’t). This is all super basic “problem must go, problem solved” reasoning, just like we can expect from the guy. This idea that Jos Verstappen is some kind of mastermind of behind-the-scenes politicking is utterly at odds with everything we know about Jos Verstappen.
MacLeod (@macleod)
10th March 2025, 7:57
+1 That sounds indeed NOT like Jos Verstappen so the case with Horner is all Horner.
Kurik
9th March 2025, 8:23
Not a fan of max but he is a relentless consistent and the rb won’t be fat off the pace so he will definitely be in contention for the championship. Underestimate him at your peril.
Moi
9th March 2025, 18:10
There was an interesting article on redfit that aggregated the estimates form experts across many sites from the pre season testing.
All of them ranked McLaren als clearly above the rest in performance, followed by Ferrari and then Mercedes and RB tied in third.
If true, that means that Max will have at least 4 experienced and fast drivers ahead of him, as well as three in equal machinery (although to be fair two of those are rookies).
So yes, his chances for victory are not that high imo.
MacLeod (@macleod)
10th March 2025, 7:58
Unless it rains ….
Davethechicken
10th March 2025, 19:38
He is a bit hit and miss in the rain. Good in Brazil 2024 but a few races before at Silverstone he was poor until the track dried.
Ferdi
11th March 2025, 13:54
I think it is safe to say we won’t see many if any wet races this season. Liberty doesn’t want them, the FIA doesn’t want them. Pity, because it is the ultimate equalizer.